WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Polar Prediction Workshop Oslo, Norway

Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio

David H. Bromwich1,2 and Keith M. Hines1

1Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, USA

2Department of Geography, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, USA

Scientific Challenges: ArcticScientific Challenges: Arctic

WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Polar Prediction Workshop Oslo, Norway

Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio

How do we define the Arctic?

North of the Arctic Circle?

Arctic Ocean and nearby?

60°N

WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Polar Prediction Workshop Oslo, Norway

Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio

Outline

• The Changing Arctic• Shorter Timescales• Longer Timescales• Sea Ice Albedo• Arctic System Reanalysis

• The Changing Arctic• Shorter Timescales• Longer Timescales• Sea Ice Albedo• Arctic System Reanalysis

WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Polar Prediction Workshop Oslo, Norway

Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio

The Changing ArcticWe need to hit a moving

target

The Changing ArcticWe need to hit a moving

target

1. Sea ice reductions

2. Thinning permafrost

3. Melting of land ice

4. Greening of the Arctic

5. Human aspects (Wall Street Journal Arcticle: Unfreezing Arctic Assets, Sept 18, 2010)

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703440604575496261529207620.html

WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Polar Prediction Workshop Oslo, Norway

Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio

September ice extent from 1979 to 2007 shows an obvious decline. The September rate of sea ice decline since 1979 is now approximately 10 percent per decade, or 72,000 square kilometers (28,000 square miles) per year.

press release from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) 1 October 2007

(http://www.nsidc.org/news/press/2007_seaiceminimum/20071001_pressrelease.html)

WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Polar Prediction Workshop Oslo, Norway

Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio

Actual observations of September Arctic sea ice (red) show a more severe decline than any of the eighteen computer models (average, dashed line) that the 2007 IPCC reports reference.

NSIDC Press Release:Models

UnderestimateLoss of Arctic Sea Ice

30 April 2007

Stroeve, J., M. M. Holland, W. Meier, T. Scambos, and M. Serreze, 2007:Arctic sea ice decline:Faster than forecast.Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, doi:10.1029/2007GL029703

WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Polar Prediction Workshop Oslo, Norway

Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio

Greenland Melt Extent 2005Konrad Steffen and Russell Huff

Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES)University of Colorado at Boulder, CO 80309-0216

http://cires.colorado.edu/science/groups/steffen/greenland/melt2005/

Greenland melt extent for 1992 and 2005

Total melt extent area that experiences 1+ melt day April – September. 2005 melt extent exceeds the previous 2002 record. (Steffen et al. 2004; Hanna et al. 2005)

WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Polar Prediction Workshop Oslo, Norway

Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio

Permafrost distribution in the Arctic. Pink is continuous, blue is discontinuous, green is sporadic. [Romanovsky et. al., 2002, Fig. 1]

Mean annual ground temperatures in Yakust, Siberia (62.1°N, 129.8°E), from 1833-2003. [From V. Romanovsky]

Permafrost Melting in the Arctic? (NOAA Arctic Change)

http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/detect/land-permafrost.shtml

Mean annual ground temperatures at Fairbanks, Alaska, for 1930-2003. The temperature 1 meter below the surface has risen very close to 0°C. [From V. Romanovsky]

WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Polar Prediction Workshop Oslo, Norway

Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio

FIGURE 1.  The vertical structure of the Arctic warming during the 1980s and 1990s, based on the ERA-40 reanalysis. Averaged temperature trends around latitude circles for 1979–2001 plotted versus latitude and height for the four seasons.

ERA-40 NCEP JRA-25

Nature, 451, 53-56 (3 January 2008) doi:10.1038/nature06502

Vertical structure of recent Arctic warmingRune G. Graversen, Thorsten Mauritsen, Michael

Tjernström, Erland Källén & Gunilla Svensson

Disagreement between models on Arctic warming

WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Polar Prediction Workshop Oslo, Norway

Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio

Data Distribution: (into initial conditions)

Ocean areas are not well sampled.Many observations are at coastal sites. representative?Complex terrainExtreme environmentsIASOAAON

High Resolution

Shorter TimescalesShorter Timescales

WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Polar Prediction Workshop Oslo, Norway

Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio

Atmospheric Data Assimilation

Surface Observation Data for ASR

WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Polar Prediction Workshop Oslo, Norway

Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio

Atmospheric Data Assimilation

Upper-air Observation Data for ASR

WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Polar Prediction Workshop Oslo, Norway

Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio

noaa-15-amsua

noaa-18-amsua

metop-2-amsua

Atmospheric Data Assimilation

Satellite Observation Data for ASR

WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Polar Prediction Workshop Oslo, Norway

Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio

IASOA observatoriesAbisko (Sweden)Alert (Canada)Barrow (USA)Cherskii (Russia)Eureka (Canada)Ny-Ålesund (Norway)Pallas (Finland)Sodankylä (Finland)Summit (Greenland)Tiksi (Russia)

The International Arctic Systems for Observing the Atmosphere (IASOA)

WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Polar Prediction Workshop Oslo, Norway

Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio

“An Arctic Observing Network should be initiated using existing activities and with the flexibility and resources to expand and improve to satisfy current and future scientific and operational needs. In its initial phase, the network should monitor selected key variables consistently across the Arctic system.”

“Work to design and implement an internationally coordinated Arctic Observing Network should begin immediately to take advantage of a unique window of opportunity created by a convergence of international activities during the International Polar Year that focus on observations.”

The NRC report recognizes that AON must be based on long-term, coordinated, international resources and efforts that are dedicated to sustaining the network. It calls for a “system design assessment” as an early step, along with efforts to sustain existing observing capabilities. AON would be continuously improved and enhanced through user feedback and infusion of new technologies and understanding. It would include a data and information management system, and involve Arctic residents in a meaningful way.

SEARCH Encourages an AON Development (NRC 2006 ”Toward an Integrated Arctic Observing Network”)

WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Polar Prediction Workshop Oslo, Norway

Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio

Observed summer afternoon temperature increases inland in the Kuparuk Basin.

Are Arctic coastal stations representative of a large area?

July Diurnal 2-m Temperature Cycle

WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Polar Prediction Workshop Oslo, Norway

Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio

Observations at Barrow, Alaska are extensively used

Summer climate at Barrow is different than that at Atqasuk 100 km inland.

WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Polar Prediction Workshop Oslo, Norway

Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio

Climate ModesNAO/AOLinkages to lower latitudes

Surface categorizationsIce sheet – GreenlandOcean – Arctic Ocean – Sea IceTundraBoreal forest

Coupled modelsAtmosphereOceanIceLand surface

Longer TimescalesLonger Timescales

WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Polar Prediction Workshop Oslo, Norway

Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio

ERA-40 seasonal MSLP (hPa) for 1960–2005: (a) winter DJF and (b) summer JJA and seasonal mean 500 hPa geopotential height (m) for (c) winter and (d) summer.

MSLP DJF MSLP JJA

500 hPa Z DJF 500 hPa Z JJA

NH Climatology Surface

NH ClimatologyMid-Troposphere

WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Polar Prediction Workshop Oslo, Norway

Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio

The leading varimax-rotated PC loadings of 500 hPa seasonal geopotential height anomalies constructed from ERA-40 for 1960–2005: DJF (a) RPC1; (b) RPC2 and (c) RPC3; for JJA (d) RPC1. The signs of the loadings are arbitrary.

West Pacific Teleconnection

RCP1

Pacific North America

RCP2

RCP3

North Atlantic Oscillation

RCP1

WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Polar Prediction Workshop Oslo, Norway

Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio

WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Polar Prediction Workshop Oslo, Norway

Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio

The Need for Coupled Modeling of the Arctic for Timescales Longer than the Synoptic Timescale

The Arctic System Model

WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Polar Prediction Workshop Oslo, Norway

Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OhioSea Ice Albedo VariabilityMay

June

July August September

WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Polar Prediction Workshop Oslo, Norway

Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio

Temporal evolution of albedo

Snow, leads, bare ice constant – ponds always changing

WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Polar Prediction Workshop Oslo, Norway

Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio

1. Dry snow: albedo of 0.85 assumed until melt.2. Melting snow: fixed 15 day period - linearly decreasing albedo (0.80 to 0.71).3. Pond formation: fixed 6 day period - linearly decreasing albedo (0.67 to 0.50).4. Pond evolution: remainder of melt season - linearly decreasing albedo.5. Fall freezeup: Albedo linearly increases to 0.85.

Dry snow Fall freezeupPond evolutionM

elti

ng

sn

ow

Po

nd

fo

rma

tion

5 Phases - timing is critical – particularly onset of melt

Perovich et al. (2007) 5-stage modelPerovich et al. (2007) 5-stage model

WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Polar Prediction Workshop Oslo, Norway

Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio

Arctic System ReanalysisA physically-consistent integration of Arctic and

other Northern Hemisphere data.

Participants:Ohio State University - Byrd Polar Research Center (BPRC)

- and Ohio Supercomputer Center (OSC)National Center Atmospheric Research (NCAR)Universities of Colorado and Illinois.

High resolution in space (10 km) and time (3 hours)

- convenient for synoptic and mesoscale studies Begin with years 2000-2010 (Earth Observing System)

Also Interested:NOAA (Also provided start-up funds) NASAU.S. Department of Energy

WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Polar Prediction Workshop Oslo, Norway

Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio

Domain for ASR

WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Polar Prediction Workshop Oslo, Norway

Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio

ASR

ASR

ERA

ERA

Yearly Total 2007, Unit: cm

Yearly Total 2008, Unit: cmFigure 11 ASR and ERA-Interim precipitation.

ASR SummaryBig progress has been made. Earlier test

months in 2007 and recent 2007-2008 run with 30 km resolution show results that look very encouraging.

Testing is being finished with the assimilation, especially the nudging, physics, and land surface modeling/assimilation.

Testing is ongoing with Polar WRF version 3.2.1

10 km production run should start soon.

WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Polar Prediction Workshop Oslo, Norway

Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio

Scientific Challenges: Arctic

Outline• The Changing Arctic• Shorter Timescales• Longer Timescales• Sea Ice Albedo• Arctic System Reanalysis

• The Changing Arctic• Shorter Timescales• Longer Timescales• Sea Ice Albedo• Arctic System Reanalysis