wp7 – well being and living conditions well being global scenarios ismeri europa

Download WP7 –  Well  Being and  Living Conditions  Well being global scenarios ISMERI EUROPA

Post on 23-Feb-2016

39 views

Category:

Documents

0 download

Embed Size (px)

DESCRIPTION

Challanges for Europe in the world in 2030. WP7 Well Being and Living Conditions Well being global scenarios ISMERI EUROPA . WHERE WE ARE. finalising the third deliverable (global scenarios and preparation of European variants) Defining the fourth deliverable: - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

TRANSCRIPT

Diapositive 1

WP7 Well Being and Living Conditions

Well being global scenarios

ISMERI EUROPA Challanges for Europe in the world in 2030Accademia Lincei, Rome, ITALY AUGUR AUGUR workshop, 14-16 March 20121finalising the third deliverable (global scenarios and preparation of European variants) Defining the fourth deliverable:quantitative analysis on European well-being (WB) with some econometric exercises linked to the CAM modelreflection on social Europe

WHERE WE AREAccademia Lincei, Rome, ITALY AUGUR AUGUR workshop, 14-16 March 2012Dimensions of Well-beingDIMENSIONSCROSS-CUTTING ISSUESHealth Governance

Income inequality Community Social Capital Education Social Inclusion, Employment Material Standards of living Security Accademia Lincei, Rome, ITALY AUGUR AUGUR workshop, 14-16 March 2012Economic mechanismsTwo main factors: the per capita GDP level and the personal income distributionPublic expenditure is also relevant and partially interrelated to these two basic factorsSocial mechanismsdominated by demographic trends and labor market inclusivenessInstitutional mechanismslegal and organizational infrastructures devoted to WB. Good political choices and social networks influence the capacity to generate an environment favorable for WB

TRANSMISSION MECHANISMSAccademia Lincei, Rome, ITALY AUGUR AUGUR workshop, 14-16 March 2012Sensitivity to drivers & mechanismsMechanismMain driversSensitivity in relation to the current level of GDP per capitaLowMiddleHighEconomic GDP per capita++++++++Income distributionPublic expenditureFacilities/infrastructuresAccess to new technologySocialDemographic trends++++++++Labor market inclusivenessJob quality SecurityAccess to WB facilitiesInstitutionalGovernance quality++++++DemocracySocial capital endowmentInstitutionalization of WBAccademia Lincei, Rome, ITALY AUGUR AUGUR workshop, 14-16 March 2012How to adjust WB to the demographic changes?How to sustain WB when financial and economic interdependence reduce space to the state and the redistributive national policies?

Trade-off between globalization and WB objectives:reduce financialization and globalization of individual economies?move social policy in the global arena? or both?MAIN QUESTIONS FOR THE FUTURE YEARSAccademia Lincei, Rome, ITALY AUGUR AUGUR workshop, 14-16 March 2012The demand for WB increases with the population (+20% in 2030)

but in some blocs demand increases more due to changes in the composition of the population

(2 =child, 1=working age, 3=old)Accademia Lincei, Rome, ITALY AUGUR AUGUR workshop, 14-16 March 2012Increasing disparities among blocs in trends of WB demand, East Asia HI, Europe and USA at the top in 2030Accademia Lincei, Rome, ITALY AUGUR AUGUR workshop, 14-16 March 2012Increased urbanisation and the demand for public services and WB Accademia Lincei, Rome, ITALY AUGUR AUGUR workshop, 14-16 March 2012

Public resources in % of income slowly converge, but distances remain importantAccademia Lincei, Rome, ITALY AUGUR AUGUR workshop, 14-16 March 2012 Resources per capita have diverged during the past 30 years

Accademia Lincei, Rome, ITALY AUGUR AUGUR workshop, 14-16 March 2012Defined as subsequent bedding, they are: Reduced government China and US intervention Regionalisation (3 main groups: American, European, Asian) Multipolar collaboration:THE FOUR SCENARIOS Accademia Lincei, Rome, ITALY AUGUR AUGUR workshop, 14-16 March 2012REDUCED GOVERNMENT: ASSUMPTIONSEconomicSocialInstitutionalSlow growth in high income countries, Catching up of other regions (South America, India, Africa)Cut in public expenditure and WB services Increasing inequality in income distributionSlight decline in migration flowsIn advanced countries persisting unemployment and polarization of employment (especially in UK and Southern Europe)Increasing delocalization of firms in less developed countriesIncreasing social exclusion and related security problemsSlower urbanizationReduced role of the State in redistribution Priority assigned to recovery of financial markets, poor attention to WB development Less social cohesion and solidarity in policy making Accademia Lincei, Rome, ITALY AUGUR AUGUR workshop, 14-16 March 2012Continuation of the current trends and slower development in high income countries: the existing gap in WB between low and middle income countries and developed countries is reduced Africa still lagging behind in all the dimensions of WBHIC - Deterioration of WB (quality of life and inequality). National states weaker, welfare reorganized on a private basis and in a fragmented wayMIC - Social transformation (demography, family, growth of a middle class) and the role of the State in the substitution of informal welfare is inhibited, with complex and instable social and political effects. LIC - Huge low income countries (India and China) progress along increasing prosperity and WB. Predominance of financial and market priorities hamper the construction of strong institutions for redistributive policy and internal inequality increases. REDUCED GOVERNMENT: OUTPUTSAccademia Lincei, Rome, ITALY AUGUR AUGUR workshop, 14-16 March 2012Bloc1980199020002005201020202030North Europe78,680,068,875,070,675,081,3UK69,473,071,170,068,367,573,7West Europe64,963,964,265,367,269,276,1East Europe67,561,756,154,256,059,762,5South Europe56,054,356,060,957,857,563,0USA69,571,673,771,366,767,872,5East Asia High Income76,572,175,077,676,979,281,6Japan73,172,973,373,875,387,393,7Other Developed70,068,667,569,869,671,478,0CIS71,868,661,764,863,267,072,3North Africa48,346,344,846,246,647,753,1West Asia46,551,049,646,544,647,351,5Central America63,553,761,262,560,266,775,0South America58,055,157,162,163,670,778,9China80,579,379,678,779,283,687,4India70,162,357,156,454,356,261,6Other Africa68,159,759,259,256,555,755,6Other East Asia71,772,269,869,470,171,877,2Other South Asia76,168,159,660,258,657,259,5Employment rate recovery in 2030, but still insufficient in weak blocsAccademia Lincei, Rome, ITALY AUGUR AUGUR workshop, 14-16 March 2012

Income inequality increases (UK, South), higher than in the 80s and 90s and does not diminishAccademia Lincei, Rome, ITALY AUGUR AUGUR workshop, 14-16 March 2012CHINA US INTERVENTION: ASSUMPTIONSEconomicSocialInstitutionalMore balanced growth allows better social adjustments in China and USReduced disparities in ChinaLimited effects on growth of the other regions and persisting income inequalityDisadvantage for re-localization in IndiaSmall increase in immigration; emigration patterns similar to the existing onesHigh job creation in USA and reduced delocalization, but slow recovery in employment rates (high growth of working-age population)No significant mdifications in the urbanization trendsincreased social cohesion policy in China and USA and marginal changes in other blocsAccademia Lincei, Rome, ITALY AUGUR AUGUR workshop, 14-16 March 2012Effective and extended social policy in China, associated with fast growth and inclusion of an increasing amount of people in prosperity. Important disparities in well-being still characterize the global economyLimits in the economic development and social inclusion of many countries: due to less employment and less resources for well-being. The predominant model of development gives little space to social issues.Countries with a similar initial level of well-being (USA and Europe; China and other Asiatic countries) increase their disparities in 2030.

CHINA US INTERVENTION: OUTPUTSAccademia Lincei, Rome, ITALY AUGUR AUGUR workshop, 14-16 March 2012REGIONALISATION: ASSUMPTIONSEconomicSocialInstitutionalHigher GDP growth andpublic expenditure in all the blocs (exceptions of South America and Other Africa)Reduced income inequalitiesIncreasing immigration in the main integrated groups of countriesImproved employment conditionsSecurity and access to WB should be favored by social inclusion, regional cooperation and public investmentsNew or renewed institutions are needed for social policiesSocial and economic improvements in neighboring countries favor democracy and WBReduced redistributive conflicts within countriesAccademia Lincei, Rome, ITALY AUGUR AUGUR workshop, 14-16 March 2012Many countries of different income levels improve their WB. Several high income countries avoid a deterioration of their WB and many middle and low income countries can significantly improve it. For low and middle income countries the improvements in WB are significant and coexist with an increasing integration of life styles and social expectations with high income countries. A risk of isolation and marginalization, though present, is different in South America and Africa.Economic development requires strong national and regional institutions to support WB values. An inevitable muddling through process in institution building is common to all three regional groups, but reduced financial pressure and an increasing interest of market forces in social cohesion allow for a learning process.

REGIONALISATION: OUTPUTSAccademia Lincei, Rome, ITALY AUGUR AUGUR workshop, 14-16 March 2012

Accademia Lincei, Rome, ITALY AUGUR AUGUR workshop, 14-16 March 2012

Accademia Lincei, Rome, ITALY AUGUR AUGUR workshop, 14-16 March 2012MULTIPOLAR COLLABORATION: ASSUMPTIONSEconomicSocialInstitutionalRapid development of low-income countries in Africa and South AsiaSouth America and India maintain a high rate of economic GDP growthRoom for increasing public expenditure and redistributive policySlight increase in migration flows towards more developed countries China becomes an immigration country Increasing urbanization Global effort to improve energy security and savingSignificant improvements in employment rates, especially for women in Europe and USGlobal cooperation for dealing with social problemsAccademia Lincei, Rome, ITALY AUGUR AUGUR workshop, 14