world regulatory trends and challenges for caspian … · world regulatory trends and challenges...

38
World Regulatory Trends and World Regulatory Trends and Challenges for Caspian and Challenges for Caspian and Black See Region Black See Region Jaroslaw K. Ponder Jaroslaw K. Ponder Strategy and Policy Unit International Telecommunication Union Advancing in Telecommunications Regulation - 1st Black Sea and Caspian Regulatory Conference – 25-27 May 2006, Istanbul, Turkey Note: The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the ITU. Jaroslaw K. Ponder can be contacted at [email protected]

Upload: vuonghuong

Post on 25-Jun-2018

218 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

World Regulatory Trends and World Regulatory Trends and Challenges for Caspian and Challenges for Caspian and Black See RegionBlack See Region

Jaroslaw K. PonderJaroslaw K. PonderStrategy and Policy Unit

International Telecommunication Union

Advancing in Telecommunications Regulation- 1st Black Sea and Caspian Regulatory Conference –

25-27 May 2006, Istanbul, Turkey

Note: The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the ITU. Jaroslaw K. Ponder can be contacted at [email protected]

25 May 2006 [email protected] 2

AgendaAgenda

• Trends: The ICT sector• Trends: Regulatory environment• Necessary actions• ICTs: Caspian and Black See Region • Policy and Regulatory Challenges• Conclusions

25 May 2006 [email protected] 3

Trends: ICT SectorTrends: ICT Sector

• Progressing regulatory reform:Pro-competitive policy / Universal service/access…

• Expansion of mobile industry and the Internet

• High innovation dynamics• Falling prices of the ICTs:

Hardware / Software / Services • New requirements:

BandwidthGeneralized mobility Convergent solutionsOpen character

25 May 2006 [email protected] 4

Trends: Broadband AccessTrends: Broadband Access

Evolution in Pricing Strategy

133143

166

020

406080

100120140

160180

2004 2005 2006

Num

ber

of c

ount

ries

Data TimeBoth Flat-rate

75%68%

81%

Number of countries with broadband commercially available

81

113

133145

166

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

T

Median price and speed, 2004-6

0

200

400

600

800

1'000

1'200

1'400

1'600

1'800

2004 2005 2006

Spee

d (k

bps)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Pric

e (U

SD p

er 1

00 k

bps)

Median speed

Median Price inUSD/100 kbps

Growth in max. broadband speeds

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Speed (kbps)

2003 2005 2006

2005

2003

2006

25 May 2006 [email protected] 5

Trends: Broadband AccessTrends: Broadband Access

Speed Price per US$ per Change Economy Company kbit/s month US$ 100 kbit/s 2005-06Japan Yahoo BB 51'200 14.2 0.07 -12.5%Korea (Rep.) Hanaro 51'200 40.59 0.08 --Netherlands Internet Access Ned. 20'480 27.97 0.14 -81.3%Taiwan, China Chunghwa 12'288 22.67 0.18 --Sweden Bredbandsbolaget 24'576 56.08 0.23 -6.5%Singapore StarHub 30'720 73.17 0.24 -85.0%Italy Libero 12'288 37.23 0.30 -73.8%Finland Elisa 24'576 85.64 0.36 -51.4%France Free 10'240 37.29 0.36 -90.1%United States Comcast 4'096 20.00 0.49 --Germany Freenet.de 6'016 30.95 0.52 --United Kingdom Pipex 8'128 50.89 0.63 -53.6%Hong Kong, China Netvigator 6'144 51.17 0.83 -0.1%Portugal Sapo 8'128 75.82 0.93 -0.8%Canada Bell 4'096 41.26 1.01 -3.93%Average 18'278 44.33 0.43 -45.5%Best practice (top 20%) 40'960 27.59 0.10 -46.9%

Broadband prices for the cheapest fifteen economies

25 May 2006 [email protected] 6

TeleCommunicationTeleCommunication Sector in Sector in TransitionTransition

• Meaning and character of communications

Voice, Video, Data, SoD• New sell and prices strategies coming

from IP-enabled flexibility on the operational level

NGS: N-play servicesFalling prices of communication services and accessTraditional services lose strategic meaningPersonalization and customization

• Regulation Less regulation / blurred boundariesMigration from vertical to horizontal approachTechnological neutrality becomes meaningful

25 May 2006 [email protected] 7

Trends: ICT SectorTrends: ICT Sector

• Migration to the IP-environment Fixed telecommunications

Incumbents: British Telecom, DT AG, KPN Newcomers: Dialog, Metropolitan Networks

Wireless communications Mobile telecommunications: from 2G to 4GWiFi, WiMax

Cable TVBroadcasting Service and content providers

• Strengthened process of convergenceTechnologyMarketServicesInstitutional

FMC?Regulatory Implications

Mul

ti-fa

cilit

y co

mpe

titio

n

Servicecompet.

25 May 2006 [email protected] 8

NGNsNGNs as a global issue as a global issue Technical aspects Technical aspects

ITUITU--T SG 13: Rec. Y.2001T SG 13: Rec. Y.2001A NGN is a packetpacket--based networkbased network able to provide telecommunication services and able to make use of multiple broadbandmultiple broadband, QoSQoS--enabledenabledtransport technologies and in which serviceservice--relatedrelated functionsfunctions are independentindependent from underlying transporttransport--related technologiesrelated technologies. It enables unfettered accessunfettered access for users to networks and to competing service providers and/or services of their choice. It supports generalized generalized mobilitymobility which will allow consistent and ubiquitous provision of services to users.

AsiaAmerica

Europe

ITUNGN

Africa

ChallengesChallengesMultimediaGeneralized mobility Convergence IntegrityMulti-layer orientationOpen character

FG NGN

SG: 11, 13, 19, 2, 12, 16, 17

25 May 2006 [email protected] 9

IPIP--enabled enabled NGNsNGNsA global issueA global issue

Regulatory considerations• Three background papers

Rulling new and emerging marektsInterconnection in an IP-enabled NGN EnvironmentUniversal Service in an IP-enabled NGN Environment

• Regulatory proceedingsNational, Regional, International level

http://http://www.itu.int/osg/spu/ngnwww.itu.int/osg/spu/ngn//

AsiaAmericas

Europe

ITUNGN

Africa

Study Group 1

• Tariff policies, tariff models and methods of determining the costs of services on national telecommunication networks, including next-generation networks

• Regulatory impact of next generation networks on interconnection

25 May 2006 [email protected] 10

NGNsNGNs as a national issue as a national issue MultiMulti--stakeholder approach stakeholder approach

• Broad framework on interconnections and general regulatory framework

United Kingdom: Interconnection and Developing India: Recommendations on Issues pertaining to NextGeneration NetworksUSA: Hearing on network neutrality

• Focused approachGermany: e.g. IP InterconnectionNetherlands: e.g. Emerging markets

• Advisory forums Australia: Industry Forum to Advise on Convergence IssuesJapan: Next Generation Network promotion forumUK: NGN Industry BodyIndia: Joint Consultative Committee &NGN Coordination Committee

25 May 2006 [email protected] 11

Needs for a new regulatory paradigm Needs for a new regulatory paradigm under regional and intl. discussionunder regional and intl. discussion

• ERG: 2006 Common PositionsPrinciples for IP interconnectionRegulatory principles for NGNs

• CEPTConsultations on interconnection model Many activities related to non-economic regulation

• CITEL and APEC-TEL Convergence, NGN, VoIP

• OECDStudies on IP related issues

• WTOFirst considerations on Agreement on Basic telecommunications

• ITUGlobal discussion / What rules on the IP-enabled NGNs? (March 2006) / Future of Voice (January 2007)

25 May 2006 [email protected] 12

New and Emerging marketsNew and Emerging markets

• SMP concept Fundamental regulatory questions confronted with long term goals of the economic and industrial policyDiscussion on implications of the regulatory holidays

• Relevant markets Wholesale – New access technologies do influence in particular broadband definitions Retail – all market may be redefined

• New balance between ex-ante regulations and ex post remedies

• Effectiveness of self correcting forces in a competitive marketplace

25 May 2006 [email protected] 13

Interconnection in IP environmentInterconnection in IP environment

• Distinctions in periods Transitional and mature

• Competition oriented regulation It is possible that in NGN environment the intervention in setting the interconnection agreements will be smaller

• New model?Conflict between technology independence, cost based regulation, and significant market power. For the migration phase zero or low rate model for call termination may be advantageous. In the long term new model (see ECC 2005) with full separation of services provision and connectivity.

25 May 2006 [email protected] 14

Open character and realityOpen character and reality

• Telco Model versus Internet Model • Similar to the internet

NGN offers horizontally integrated model with separated NGN services and NGN Transport layer

• Market structure Very different

• Who determines the openness Vertically integrated services and network operators together with regulatory obligations

• Meaning of the contnet providers still underestimated in the discussion

25 May 2006 [email protected] 15

Next Generation Universal ServiceNext Generation Universal Service

• Definition of the universal service and the scope of the services to be included

Inclusion of the broadband in Europe triggered very difficult debate

• Possible change of approach Migration to the universal access approach

• Unified prices and affordability• NGN is much more efficient

CAPEX and OPEX up to 40% lower More services on the network

• Universal service fundsPossible sources of financing

• Customer protection

25 May 2006 [email protected] 16

Customer interests protectionCustomer interests protection

• Universal service and access • Consumer emergency calls

(E112/E911)• Consumer protection and privacy (e.g.

SPAM, SPIM)• Quality of services• Authenticated caller or sender

identification• Disability assistance• Data protection and privacy issues

25 May 2006 [email protected] 17

Conclusions Conclusions

We all build the Information We all build the Information Society togetherSociety together!!

25 May 2006 [email protected] 18

ConclusionsConclusions

• NGN will bring significant changes for the regulatory framework

• The changes will be implemented rather in a way of natural evolution then drastic revolution

• Competition is key to the NGN; on the other hand NGN fosters competition

new entrance opportunities for operating companies as well as newcomers / NGN creates new markets and reinforce position of some market players

• New balance between ex-ante regulations and ex post remedies

25 May 2006 [email protected] 19

ConclusionsConclusions

• Effectiveness of self correcting forces in a competitive marketplace

• The tempo of the NGN deployment depends on the effective regulation

• Regulatory proceeding determine incentives to invest for both new entrants and incumbents

• Regulatory policy should take into account the dynamic efficiencies dynamic efficiencies to be achieved in the ICT sector

•• BalanceBalance between facility based competition and service based competition should be preserved

25 May 2006 [email protected] 20

Implications for the regionImplications for the region

• NGNs may develop much faster develop much faster in countries with poor infrastructure

• Regulatory harmonization harmonization and propro--active active participation participation in the debate on the future regulatory paradigme is crucial

• It diminishes investment risk that is very high in transition economies anyway

Please do not wait and give your voice to this debate!

25 May 2006 [email protected] 21

Information and Communication Information and Communication Technologies in Caspian and Technologies in Caspian and

Black See RegionBlack See Region

We all build the Information We all build the Information Society togetherSociety together!!

25 May 2006 [email protected] 22

Measuring Measuring Opportunities Opportunities

1/3 1/3

1/3

DOIDOI

OpportunityOpportunity UtilizationUtilization

Infrastructure

Digital Opportunity Index

WISR 2006WISR 2006New New ITUITU’’ss SeriesSeries

25 May 2006 [email protected] 23

Digital Opportunity Digital Opportunity IndexIndex

DOIDOI

percentage of populationcovered by mobilecellular telephony

percentage of populationcovered by mobilecellular telephony

internet usersper 100 inhabitants

Proportion of householdswith fixed line telephone

mobile cellular tariffsas a percentage ofper capita income

mobile cellular tariffsas a percentage ofper capita income

internet access tariffsas a percentage ofper capita income

internet access tariffsas a percentage ofper capita income

ratio of broadbandinternet subscribers to

internet subscribers

ratio of broadbandmobile subscribers to

mobile internet subscribers

mobile cellular subscribersper 100 inhabitants

proportion of households withInternet access at home

mobile internet subscribersper 100 inhabitants

proportion of householdswith a computer

Oppor

tuni

ty

Oppor

tuni

ty Utilization

Utilization

Infrastructure

InfrastructureInfrastructure

Infrastructure

25 May 2006 [email protected] 24

Digital OpportunityDigital OpportunityIndexIndex

New New ITUITU’’ss Series Series

25 May 2006 [email protected] 25

Digital Opportunity Digital Opportunity IndexIndex

WISR 2006WISR 2006New New ITUITU’’ss SeriesSeries

25 May 2006 [email protected] 26

DOI: InDOI: In--depth analysisdepth analysis

Opportunity Infrastructure Use DOI RankBulgaria 0.96 0.34 0.22 0.51 46

Romania 0.93 0.26 0.20 0.46 53

Turkey 0.97 0.30 0.08 0.45 58

Russia 0.96 0.25 0.13 0.45 60

Iran 0.89 0.16 0.03 0.36 95

Georgia 0.92 0.12 0.13 0.39 84

Kazakhstan 0.94 0.17 0.02 0.38 89

Ukraine 0.91 0.17 0.02 0.37 93

Azerbaijan 0.90 0.15 0.02 0.36 99

Moldova 0.68 0.14 0.07 0.30 115

Turkmenistan 0.72 0.07 0.00 0.26 127

Kyrgyzstan 0.55 0.09 0.01 0.22 134

Armenia 0.70 0.15 0.02 0.29 120

Tajikistan 0.53 0.05 0.01 0.20 140

Czech Republic 0.98 0.42 0.13 0.51 43

Poland 0.98 0.39 0.19 0.52 39

Hungary 0.98 0.43 0.24 0.55 34

25 May 2006 [email protected] 27

DOI: UseDOI: Use

Internet per 100 inhab.

Fixed broadband to total Internet subs.

Mobile broad-band to total mobile

Bulgaria 0.24 0.42 0.00

Romania 0.21 0.39 0.00

Turkey 0.09 0.14 0.00

Russia 0.12 0.27 0.00

Iran 0.07 0.02 0.00

Georgia 0.04 0.34 0.00

Kazakhstan 0.07 0.00 0.00

Ukraine 0.07 0.00 0.00

Azerbaijan 0.05 0.00 0.00

Moldova 0.09 0.13 0.00

Turkmenistan 0.00 0.00 0.00

Kyrgyzstan 0.03 0.00 0.00

Armenia 0.07 0.00 0.00

Tajikistan 0.01 0.02 0.00

Czech Rep. 0.29 0.08 0.00

Poland 0.22 0.36 0.00

Hungary 0.22 0.49 0.00

25 May 2006 [email protected] 28

Digital OpportunityDigital OpportunityUtilizationUtilization

WISR 2006WISR 2006New New ITUITU’’ss SeriesSeries

25 May 2006 [email protected] 29

DOI: OpportunitiesDOI: Opportunities

Mobile population coverage

Internetaffordability

Mobile affordability

Bulgaria 0.98 0.97 0.92

Romania 0.97 0.87 0.96

Turkey 0.96 0.96 0.98

Russia 0.95 0.96 0.98

Iran 0.70 0.99 0.98

Georgia 0.95 0.89 0.92

Kazakhstan 0.94 0.92 0.97

Ukraine 0.91 0.93 0.90

Azerbaijan 0.97 0.87 0.86

Moldova 0.92 0.58 0.54

Turkmenistan 0.50 0.68 0.98

Kyrgyzstan 0.40 0.57 0.68

Armenia 0.81 0.43 0.87

Tajikistan 0.30 0.47 0.83

Czech Republic 0.99 0.98 0.98

Poland 0.98 0.98 0.98

Hungary 0.99 0.98 0.98

25 May 2006 [email protected] 30

DOI: InfrastructureDOI: Infrastructure

% households with fixed line

Mobile per 100 inhab.

% households with Internet

Mobile Internet per 100 inhab.

% households with PC

Bulgaria 0.83 0.59 0.10 0.03 0.15

Romania 0.62 0.47 0.06 0.04 0.12

Turkey 0.82 0.51 0.07 0.01 0.11

Russia 0.60 0.51 0.05 0.00 0.11

Iran 0.65 0.06 0.04 0.00 0.07

Georgia 0.33 0.23 0.00 0.00 0.06

Kazakhstan 0.61 0.16 0.02 0.00 0.05

Ukraine 0.53 0.27 0.01 0.00 0.03

Azerbaijan 0.53 0.18 0.02 0.00 0.04

Moldova 0.53 0.14 0.01 0.01 0.03

Turkmenistan 0.35 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01

Kyrgyzstan 0.33 0.06 0.01 0.00 0.04

Armenia 0.67 0.05 0.02 0.00 0.02

Tajikistan 0.20 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.01

Czech Rep. 0.62 1.00 0.19 0.01 0.30

Poland 0.75 0.60 0.26 0.01 0.36

Hungary 0.71 0.86 0.14 0.09 0.33

25 May 2006 [email protected] 31

Challenges for the Countries in Challenges for the Countries in Caspian and Black See RegionCaspian and Black See Region

We all build the Information We all build the Information Society togetherSociety together!!

25 May 2006 [email protected] 32

ChallengesChallenges

• Progress in regulatory reform• Pro-competitive policy approach • Enabling regulatory environment

Infrastructure development, modernization…Voice over Internet Protocol…

• Mobile telecommunications Dissemination of 2.5G / 2.75G / 3G Mobile Virtual Network Operators Licensing: Emerging technologies

25 May 2006 [email protected] 33

Thank you very much Thank you very much for your attention!for your attention!

Jaroslaw K. Ponder International Telecommunication UnionStrategy and Policy Unit E-mail: [email protected]://www.itu.int/spuTel: 00 41 22 730 60 65

We all build the Information We all build the Information Society together!Society together!

25 May 2006 [email protected] 34

Resources Resources

• Full version of this presentation and others focusing on regulation:www.itu.int/osg/spu/presentations/

• NGN regulatory and policy resources:http://www.itu.int/osg/spu/ngn/ngn-policy-regulatory-resources.html

• ITU activities on NGN:www.itu.int/spu/ngn

25 May 2006 [email protected] 35

International International Telecommunication Telecommunication

UnionUnion

We all build the Information We all build the Information Society togetherSociety together!!

25 May 2006 [email protected] 36

ITU ITU -- International International Telecommunication UnionTelecommunication Union

• The oldest specialized UN agency with more than 140 years of experience in communication sector

• Headquarters in Geneva plus regional offices

• ITU staff: more than 750 from more than 80 countries

• 189 member states, more than 640 sector members

• ITU Agenda for Change• Structure of the ITU

ITU-T – Telecom StandardizationITU-R – Radio-communications ITU-D – Development Bureau

25 May 2006 [email protected] 37

ITU ITU –– InternationalInternationalTelecommunication UnionTelecommunication Union

25 May 2006 [email protected] 38

ITUITU’’ss Strategy and Strategy and Policy Unit (SPU)Policy Unit (SPU)

• New Initiatives ProgrammeDigital Bridges (2005)Ubiquitous Network Societies (2005)Today’s Networks Tomorrow (2005)What Rules for IP-enabled NGNs? (2006)Digital Transformations in the Information Society (2006)Regulatory Environment for Future Mobile Multimedia Services (2006)

• Many other activities…

http://http://www.itu.int/spuwww.itu.int/spu