world energy outlook
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World Energy Outlook. Dr Fatih Birol IEA Chief Economist Prague, 7 January 2014. The world energy scene today. Some long-held tenets of the energy sector are being rewritten Countries are switching roles: importers are becoming exporters… - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
© OECD/IEA 2013
World Energy Outlook Dr Fatih Birol
IEA Chief Economist
Prague, 7 January 2014
© OECD/IEA 2013
The world energy scene today
Some long-held tenets of the energy sector are being rewritten Countries are switching roles: importers are becoming exporters… … and exporters are among the major sources of growing demand New supply options reshape ideas about distribution of resources
But long-term solutions to global challenges remain scarce Renewed focus on energy efficiency, but CO2 emissions continue to rise
Fossil-fuel subsidies increased to $544 billion in 2012 1.3 billion people still lack electricity – in Africa and South Asia
Energy prices add to the pressure on policymakers Sustained period of high oil prices without parallel in market history Large, persistent regional price differences for gas & electricity
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The engine of energy demand growth moves to South Asia
Primary energy demand, 2035 (Mtoe)
China is the main driver of increasing energy demand in the current decade, but India takes over in the 2020s as the principal source of growth
4%
65%
10%
8%
8%5%
OECD
Non-OECDAsia
MiddleEast
Africa
Latin America
Eurasia
Share of global growth2012-2035
480
Brazil 1 540
India
1 000 SoutheastAsia
4 060
China
1 030
Africa
2 240UnitedStates 440
Japan1 710
Europe1 370
Eurasia
1 050MiddleEast
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A mix that is slow to change
Growth in total primary energy demand
Today's share of fossil fuels in the global mix, at 82%, is the same as it was 25 years ago; the strong rise of renewables only reduces this to around 75% in 2035
500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000
Nuclear
Oil
Renewables
Coal
Gas
Mtoe
1987-2011
2011-2035
the strong rise of renewables only reduces this to around 75% in 2035
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Non-OECDOECD
Emissions off track in the run-up to the 2015 climate summit in France
Cumulative energy-related CO2 emissions
Non-OECD countries account for a rising share of emissions, although 2035 per capita levels are only half of OECD
200
400
600
800Gt
1900-1929
1930-1959
1960-1989
1990-2012
2013-2035
OECD
Non-OECD
Total emissions1900-2035
51%
49%
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China becomes the largest consumer of oil by 2030, as OECD oil use drops; demand is concentrated in transport, where diesel use surges by 5.5 mb/d, & petrochemicalsChina becomes the largest consumer of oil by 2030, as OECD oil use drops;
Oil demand by regionsector
Oil use grows, but in a narrowing set of markets
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
2012 2035
mb/d
China
India
Middle East
Other
Transport Petrochemicals Othersectors
OECD
Diesel
GasolineOther
80
85
90
95
100
105
2012 2035
mb/d
Transport Petrochemicals Othersectors
Diesel
GasolineOther
, & petrochemicals
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-2 0 2 4 6 8
Rest of the world
United States
Brazil
Middle East
mb/d
Two chapters to the oil production story
Contributions to global oil production growth
The United States (light tight oil) & Brazil (deepwater) step up until the mid-2020s, but the Middle East is critical to the longer-term oil outlook
2013-2025
2025-2035
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300
600
900
1 200
1 500
1 800
2 100TWh
India
LatinAmerica
Africa
ASEAN
Hydro
Other renewables
Wind
Solar PV
China
Hydro
Other renewables
Wind
Solar PV
Renewables power up around the world
Growth in electricity generation from renewable sources, 2011-2035
EuropeanUnion
UnitedStates
Japan
Europe, Japan and United States
China India, Latin America, ASEAN and Africa
Hydro
Otherrenewables
Wind
Solar PV
The expansion of non-hydro renewables depends on subsidies that more than double to 2035; additions of wind & solar have implications for power market design & costsadditions of wind & solar have implications for power market design & costs
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Renewables subsidies increased to $101 billion in 2012, more than half of which are in the European Union; renewables subsidies are set to more than double by 2035.
$101 billion
Renewables subsidies increased to $101 billion in 2012,
Renewable-energy subsidies by region in 2012
Increasing subsidies for increasing renewables
European Union
United States
China
India
Rest of the world
57%
21%
7%
13%2%
renewables subsidies are set to more than double by 2035
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3×
4×
5×
2003
Regional differences in natural gas prices narrow from today’s very high levels but remain large through to 2035; electricity price differentials also persistelectricity price differentials also persist
20132035
Reductionfrom 2013
Who has the energy to compete?
Ratio of industrial energy prices relative to the United States
United States
2×
Japan EuropeanUnion
China
ElectricityNatural gas
2003
Japan EuropeanUnion
China
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Energy-intensive industries need to count their costs
Share of energy in total production costs for selected industries
Energy-intensive sectors worldwide account for around one-fifth of industrial value added, one-quarter of industrial employment and 70% of industrial energy use.
10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
Glass
Pulp & paper
Iron & steel
Cement
Aluminium
Fertilisers
Petrochemicals
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An energy boost to the economy?
Share of global export market for energy-intensive goods
The US, together with key emerging economies, increases its export market share for energy-intensive goods, while the EU and Japan see a sharp decline
Today 36% 10% 7% 7% 3% 2%
European Union
United StatesChina IndiaMiddle East
Japan
-3%
-10%
+3%+2% +2%+1%
while the EU and Japan see a sharp decline
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LNG from the United Statescan shake up gas markets
Indicative economics of LNG export from the US Gulf Coast (at current prices)
New LNG supplies accelerate movement towards a more interconnected global market, but high costs of transport between regions mean no single global gas price
Average import price
Liquefaction, shipping& regasification
United States price3
6
9
12
15
18
To Asia
$/MBtu
3
6
9
12
To Europe
$/MBtu
but high costs of transport between regions mean no single global gas price
© OECD/IEA 2013
Orientation for a fast-changing energy world
China, then India, drive the growing dominance of Asia in global energy demand & trade
Technology is opening up new oil resources, but the Middle East remains central to the longer-term outlook
Regional price gaps & concerns over competitiveness are hereto stay, but there are ways to react – with efficiency first in line
Implementing sound energy policies in Europe has rarely been so critical for the prosperity of its people