world energy outlook 2010
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Presentazione di Fatih Birol - IEA Chief EconomistTRANSCRIPT
© OECD/IEA 2010
World Energy Outlook World Energy Outlook 20102010
Dr. Fatih BirolIEA Chief Economist10 December 2010
© OECD/IEA 2010
The context:The context:a time of unprecedented a time of unprecedented uncertaintyuncertainty The worst of the global economic crisis appears to
be over – but is the recovery sustainable?
Oil demand & supply are becoming less sensitive to price – what does this mean for future price movements?
Natural gas markets are in the midst of a revolution – will it herald a golden era for gas?
Copenhagen Accord & G-20 subsidy reforms are key advances – but do they go far enough & will they be fully implemented?
China & other emerging economies will shape the global energy future – where will their policy decisions lead us?
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Recent policy commitments,Recent policy commitments,if implemented, would make a if implemented, would make a differencedifference
Global energy use grows by 36%, with non-OECD countries – led by China,where demand surges by 75% – accounting for almost all of the increase
World primary energy demand by region in the New Policies Scenario
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
18 000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Mto
e
Rest of world
China
OECD
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Emerging economies Emerging economies dominatedominatethe growth in demand for all the growth in demand for all fuels fuels
Demand for all types of energy increases in non-OECD countries,while demand for coal & oil declines in the OECD
Incremental primary energy demand in the New Policies Scenario, 2008-2035
- 600 - 300 0 300 600 900 1 200 1 500
Other renewables
Hydro
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
Mtoe
OECD
China
Rest of world
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And also the electricity And also the electricity demanddemand
World electricity demand by country in the New Policies Scenario
Global electricity generation grows by 40%, with non-OECD countries accounting for 80% of the increase.
0
4000
8000
12000
16000
20000
24000
28000
32000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
TWh
China
US
India
EU
Other OECD
Other non-OECD
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Fossil-fuels still lead the wayFossil-fuels still lead the way
Power from renewables has been growing fast, but over the past decade, the increase was smaller than in fossil-fuel based generation
World incremental electricity generation by fuel and region, 2000-2008
- 400
0
400
800
1 200
1 600
2 000
2 400
World China EU
TWh Renewables
Coal
Gas
Nuclear
Oil
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A profound change in the way A profound change in the way we generate electricity is at we generate electricity is at handhand
A gradual decarbonisation in global energy sector increase – thanks to renewables and nuclear.
World electricity generation by type in the New Policies Scenario
0 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 12 000
Oil
Other …
Biomass
Wind
Nuclear
Hydro
Gas
Coal
TWh
2008
2035
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Coal remains the backbone of Coal remains the backbone of global electricity generationglobal electricity generation
A drop in coal-fired generation in the OECD is offset by big increases elsewhere, especially China, where 600 GW of new capacity exceeds the current capacity of the US, EU & Japan
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2035
TW
h China
India
Other non-OECD
OECD
Coal-fired electricity generation by region in the New Policies Scenario
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A golden age for gas?A golden age for gas?
Gas is set to play a key role in meeting the world’s energy needs
> demand rises by 44% to 2035, led by China & Middle East
Unconventional gas accounts for 35% of the increase in global supply to 2035, with new non-US producers emerging
Gas glut will peak soon, but may dissipate only very slowly
The glut will keep pressure on gas exporters to move away from oil-price indexation, notably in Europe
Lower prices could lead to stronger demand for gas, backing out renewables, nuclear & coal in power generation
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Low-carbon technologies Low-carbon technologies increasingly penetrate the increasingly penetrate the electricity mix in the New Policies electricity mix in the New Policies ScenarioScenario
Share of nuclear and renewable energy in total electricity generation by region in
the New Policies Scenario
Renewable sources (including hydro) and nuclear power are projected toaccount for 45% of total global generation by 2035, up from 32% today
19%32%
17%27%
17%
41%14%
14%
2%
9% 28%
24%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2008 2035 2008 2035 2008 2035
World China EU
Nuclear
Renewables
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Renewables need Renewables need government support to government support to deliverdeliver
Global government support for renewables reached $37 billion in 2009 and grows to $140 billion in 2035; support costs per unit of electricity fall over time as technologies mature
Global government support for renewables-based electricity generation in the New Policies Scenario
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
200720082009 20152020202520302035
Bill
ion
dolla
rs (
2009)
Other renewables
Wind
CSP
Solar PV
Biomass
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Global nuclear capacity increases 65% from 2008 to 2035, with non-OECD countries accounting for 60% of additions
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2021-2025 2026-2030 2031-2035
GW OECD
non-OECDUnder
construction
Additional projected
2009-2020
Most growth in nuclear Most growth in nuclear capacity comes from non-capacity comes from non-OECDOECDNuclear capacity under construction and additions by region in the
New Policies Scenario
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The 450 Scenario:The 450 Scenario: a a roadmap from 3.5 roadmap from 3.5C to 2C to 2C C The 450 Scenario sets out an energy pathway
consistent with limiting the increase in temperature to 2C
Assumes vigorous implementation of Copenhagen Accord pledges to 2020 & much stronger action thereafter
The failure of the Copenhagen Accord pledges:
> As many lack transparency, there is 3.9 Gt of uncertainty over the level of abatement pledged to 2020
> As many lack ambition, the cost of achieving the 2 C goal has increased by $1 trillion in 2010-2030 compared with WEO-2009
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Nuclear share in electricity Nuclear share in electricity mix increases in the 450 mix increases in the 450 ScenarioScenario
In the 450 Scenario, nuclear electrical capacity more than double – from about 400 GW in 2008 to 850 GW in 2035. Nuclear energy becomes the 1st primary energy source for electricity production.
Nuclear energy as a share of total electricity generation by scenario
* Includes Japan and Korea
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
OECD Asia*
EU
US
Russia
China
India
World 2008
2035 New Policies Scenario
2035 450 Scenario
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Concluding remarksConcluding remarks
Recently announced policies can make a difference, but fall well short of what is needed for a secure & sustainable energy future Lack of ambition in Copenhagen has increased the cost of
achieving the 2C goal & made it less likely to happen
The age of cheap oil is over, though policy action could bring lower international prices than would otherwise be the case
Stronger penetration of natural gas can have profound implications for energy markets, environment and electricity production
Nuclear is set to play a key role for addressing energy security and climate challenges