wisdom of the crowds

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  • 1. The Wisdom of the Crowds Or The Tyranny of the Mob Whats with all this collective intelligence web 2.0 stuff anyway? David Smith, Business Innovations Manager
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  • 5. Is Harriet Klausner real?
    • She has her own website: http:// harrietklausner.wwwi.com /
    • She has a RealName - an Amazon Badge that indicates that Amazon has validated the identity of the person (via credit card)
    • The Wall Street Journal wrote about her http://www.opinionjournal.com/la/?id=110006483
    • But if she writes a review for every book she reads (2 per day in her own words) then its taken her over 17 years to compile the 12,000 reviews on Amazon.
    • Amazon was founded in 1995
    • Every book she reviews seems to get 4 or 5 stars (out of five)
    • And in one six day period I counted over 89 book reviews from her
  • 6. In which Digg gets gamed
  • 7. Weve given the word mob a bad name Dr Hibbert
  • 8. Can a crowd be wise? Yes: If these conditions are met
      • Diversity of opinion/knowledge : each crowd member needs to have some form of private information about the matter at hand.
      • Independence : individuals in the crowd need to draw their own conclusions without influence from the rest of the crowd.
      • Decentralization : Crowd members can apply local knowledge and thinking to their solution to the problem think specialization.
      • Aggregation : Collating the above and getting to a sensible collective decision (this is the REALLY hard one!).
  • 9. Good examples of Wise Crowds
    • Googles web index powered by Pagerank which is powered by YOU
    • The Stock Market (mostly bubbles and runs are what happens when the crowd stops working to the principles outlined before) Note the stock market performs well over time
    • Open source software such as Firefox, Linux, Apache
  • 10. What about Publishers?
    • Remember Aggregation
    • Without this, the crowd is not wise.
    • Also How long have you got to wait for a crowd to come up with the wise answer? Crowds work at their own pace (peer reviewers anyone?).
    • The Bottom is Not Enough find this on the wiki a great perspective.
    • And read the book! long form content not a feature of crowdsourced material (at least, not yet)
  • 11. Questions?

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