GREENGREENENABLING INDIA'S AGENDA

FOR INCLUSIVE GROWTH

www.wipro.com

TABLE OF CONTENTSExecutive Summary

Salient Characteristics of JobGeneration in the Clean Energy Space

India: The Low Carbon EconomyCan Drive its Inclusive Growth Agenda

Bridging the Energy Divide

Annexure A: Estimated Green Job Potential for India

Annexure B: Bibliography & References

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Our fundamental premise is that following a 'low carbon' path of development represents the best choice for India on three counts – energy security, reduced GHG emissions and inclusive growth.

The focus of this paper is primarily on the dimension of inclusive growth, where we show how the greening of India's economy can help:

Abstract

Generate millions of green jobs that are equitablydistributed across urban and rural sectors, and

Bridge the energy divide by providing cost effective and speedy electricity access to nearly half the Indian population that currently lacks basic benefits that electricity enables – clean water, better health and sanitation, improved education and gender equity.

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GREENENABLING INDIA'S AGENDA FOR INCLUSIVE GROWTH

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

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Amidst the global ecological crisis around climate change, India stands at a moment

in time where she has the dual responsibility of:

Fulfilling a growth path that will lift millions out of poverty, &

Of acting responsibly and ethically towards the environment.

A more central concern is that the risks of pursuing a 'business as usual' trajectory far

outweigh the costs of investing in a low carbon economy, especially so for India

where its poor will be the hardest hit by the adverse impacts of global warming.

Following a 'low carbon' path of development represents the best choice for India on

three counts – energy security, reduced GHG emissions and inclusive growth. The

focus of this paper is primarily on the dimension of inclusive growth, where we show

how the greening of India's economy can help:

Generate millions of green jobs that are equitably distributed across urban and

rural sectors, and

Bridge the energy divide by providing cost effective and speedy electricity access to

nearly half the Indian population that currently lack basic benefits which electricity

enables – clean water, better health and sanitation, improved education and gender

equity.

Breadth and depth of clean energy space:

The breadth and depth of the emerging

clean energy landscape will give rise to a

wide range of job profiles. The five

sectors of Green Power, Green

Transportat ion, Green Industry ,

Sustainable Habitat and Sustainable

Agriculture & Forestry not only require

domain specific competencies in R&D,

manufacturing and maintenance but a

variety of horizontal skills in research,

audit, legal and consulting. Many of

these jobs are semi-skilled and do not

require high levels of education and

training. For India, this can boost rural

employment s ignif icant ly , thus

facilitating inclusive growth.

Direct and indirect jobs: The ripple effect

of investments in clean energy will

spread through the support ecosystems

of education, audit , legal as well as

through the layers of the supply chain in

sectors like steel, silicon, building

materials etc. Studies indicate that the

ratio of direct to indirect jobs in clean

energy is likely to be equally balanced.

Green job potential for India: The current

green workforce globally is estimated at

2.3 million, which is expected to grow

more than six fold to 15 million by 2030.

Of this, India is expected to account for 4

million jobs in just two sectors –

Renewable Energy and Green IT back-

office. Green back-office services that are

powered by IT – remote energy

management in business organizations,

smart grid management of power

utilities, engineering design services,

geospatial modeling etc – are estimated to

be a $ 25 billion domain by 2020 that will

generate 750,000 additional jobs. With its

strong legacy of leadership in IT and ITES,

India can reap significant leverage from

this opportunity.

Both the global and the Indian estimates

do not adequately consider all sectors of

the green economy. Therefore, we think

that the above estimates are conservative.

If we include all sectors of the green

economy, our assessment is that India's

green job potential will be between 8-10

million jobs by 2030.

Opportunity for India to take leadership: A

key driver of India's green growth will be

adequate investments in the education

infrast ructure towards bui ld ing

capabilities on a large scale – in

engineering, design, architecture,

pollution mitigation, audit as well as in the

range of vocational skills. These critical

capabilities can help India carve out a

leadership position in areas like R&D or

Manufacturing where we have not had a

presence till now.

Inclusive growth: The fact that green jobs

are distributed across the urban-rural

divide and span a wide range of education

and skills aligns well with India's inclusive

growth agenda. An equally important

consideration is that for the 51% of

India's population that does not have

access to electricity, a decentralized

model of delivering energy will be much

more cost effective and fast. Renewable

energy systems like Solar PV, Biomass fit

the requirement very well here.

Note: 1. This paper is a dipstick report that tries to bring out the power of the low carbon economy for India based on just two sectors, renewable energy and Green IT. Several of the clean energy sectors have not been addressed e.g. green transportation, recycling, pollution control etc. We suggest the commissioning of a comprehensive report on the low carbon socio-economic trajectory that India should pursue. Such a report will have to be a multi-stakeholder exercise involving the government, policy groups, academic institutions and corporate organizations. Wipro will be happy to participate and lead such an effort.

2. For further information, please contact P.S.Narayan at email: narayan.pan@wipro.com or mobile: +91-98451-61411.

SALIENT CHARACTERISTICS OF JOB GENERATION IN THE CLEAN ENERGY SPACE

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Several independent studies have emphasized the significant

job creation potential of clean technologies across multiple

segments. What is interesting to note is that these job profiles

span a large spectrum of educational qualifications, skills and

knowledge – from R&D scientists to maintenance technicians

and from energy auditors to farmers who provide biomass

feedstock. As we explain later, the wide spectrum of clean

energy jobs opens up opportunities for a big part of India's

population that has not had the advantage of good education

and training.

GREENENABLING INDIA'S AGENDA FOR INCLUSIVE GROWTH

It is important for India's policy makers and industry leaders to

appreciate the breadth and depth of the clean energy space – as

illustrated in figure 1 – for the simple reason that such a vast

landscape provides multiple levers of opportunity for us to

enhance our economy and to reduce our ecological impact.

GREENENABLING INDIA'S AGENDA FOR INCLUSIVE GROWTH

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Figure 1: The Clean Energy Landscape

GreenPower

Green Transportation

GreenIndustry

Sustainable Habitat

Sustainable Agriculture &

Forestry

Renewable EnergySolarWindBiomassMicro Hydel

Energy EfficiencyEfficient cooling e.g. Geothermal, EATAppliances e.g. LED lighting, Energy Star products

Power InfrastructureSmart GridsEnergy Storage systems InvertersComponents e.g Wind blades

Cleaner conventionalenergy

Clean coalCarbon capture & sequestrationIGGC

Electric vehiclesPure EVs (cars and 2 wheelers)Hybrids & plug-ins

BiofuelsCellulosic ethanolCrop fuels

Cleaner automobilesLighter materialsEfficient power- trainsEfficient enginesEmbedded controls

Public transportUrban Mass-transit systemsImproving the modal mix of goods transport (between train, ship & road)

Productioninfrastructure

Efficient electric drives for motorsLean processes

BiofuelsCellulosic ethanolCrop fuels

Cleaner automobilesLighter materialsEfficient power- trainsEfficient enginesEmbedded controls

Public transportUrban Mass-transit systemsImproving the modal mix of goods transport (between train, ship & road)

Green buildingsPassive Design e.g. building envelopes, lighting, coolingMore efficient HVACs Efficient lighting

RecyclingBetter Solid waste Management (SWM) Localized Biogas plants

Input materials for industryComposting for the green spaces

Green transportationBetterEvsEfficient automobilesMass rapid transit systems

AgricultureHigh efficiency pumpsEfficient irrigation techniquesRice cropland management

Green buildingsAfforestationReforestation of degraded landForestry management practices

Horizontal Services Consulting, Legal, Environmental audits, IT services, Education, Skills training, R&D, Resource conservation, Pollution mitigation

Table 1 below provides a glimpse of the kind of jobs and skills that the clean energy industry will demand over the next few years and

decades.

Clean Energy Sector Job Categories in the Sector Illustrative Roles

Renewable Energy

Energy Efficiency

Power Infrastructure

Green Transportation

Green Industry

Sustainable habitat

Sustainable agriculture& forestry

R&D- Manufacturing-Services-Education

R&D- Manufacturing-Services-Education

R&D- Manufacturing-Services-Education

R&D- Manufacturing-Services-Education

R&D-Manufacturing-Services

Manufacturing-Services

Services

Photonics Engineers |Solar Power Plant Technician | Drilling engineers ( Geothermal) | Wind turbine service technicians | Biomass collector, separator, sorter|

Lighting &HVAC Engineers |Energy Auditors | Thermal engineers ( Geothermal, EAT) | Weatherization technicians | Green Building architects | Retrofit designers | Electrical Drafters |

Metering Engineers| Energy Analytics Specialists| Transmission and Distribution specialists| Smart Grid Solution experts| Inverter service technicians| R&D specialists ( Energy Storage) |

Materials scientists| R&D technologists ( Fuel Cells| Alternate Fuel System specialists ( Biodiesel, Biofuels..) | Internal Combustion Engine Designers| Urban Transportation Designers| Urban Transportation logistics experts|

Waste heat recovery engineers| Electrical Motor Designers| Materials scientists|, Process experts ( Steel Manufacturing & Cement Manufacturing)|

Green Building Architects| Onsite Environment protection technicians| LEED building auditors| Recyclable Material Collectors|

Irrigation system installers| Precision agriculture technicians| Forest Management experts| Afforestation assistants| Water management experts for rice farming|

Some compelling facts on cleanenergy jobs become apparent:

1. Wide landscape: The clean energy landscape extends

significantly beyond Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency,

the two sectors that are the familiar to many. ; The fact that this

multiplies the job-generation potential manifold holds

compelling implications for policy makers e.g. In China, nearly

one million people are currently employed in the renewable

energy industry but it is estimated that more than ten times

that number are employed in the recycling industry of which

700,000 are employed in electronics recycling alone .

2. Inclusive employment: Viewed from the lens of skills and jobs,

the clean energy space is strikingly different from conventional

energy (as well as high tech and other mainstream industries)

on at least two counts –

Distributed job generation: The vast spectrum of required skills

and education in the clean energy space ranges from specialized

R&D competencies in emerging technologies to manual skills in

assembly and dis-assembly of renewable energy equipment. In

between is a wide range of roles and jobs for the picking – in

Education, Design, Manufacturing, Installation, Maintenance, IT,

Grid Management etc. The fact that many of these jobs are

semi-skilled and do not require high levels of education makes

clean energy jobs more easily accessible to the youth in rural and

semi-urban areas.

More jobs per unit of investment: A recent study by the Political

Economy Research Institute (PERI) U.S.A indicates that the job

generation potential of the Renewable Energy and Energy

Efficiency domains can be 2-3 times that of conventional

energy e.g. coal, oil (refer table 2). This can be attributed to the

nature of renewable energy that is less capital-intensive and

more decentralized.

GREENENABLING INDIA'S AGENDA FOR INCLUSIVE GROWTH

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Energy SourceDirect Job Creationper $1 million inoutput (# of jobs)

Indirect Job Creationper $1 million in output (# of jobs)

Total Job CreationJob Creation

% Relative to Oil

Fossil Fuels

Oil & Natural gas

Coals

0.8 2.9 3.7

1.9 3.0 4.9 32%

Energy Efficiency

Building Retrofits

Mass transit, freight, rail

0.8 4.9 11.9

11.0 4.9 15.9 330%

Smart grid 4.3 4.6 8.9 140%

222%

Renewables

Wind

Solar

4.6 4.9 9.5

5.4 4.4 9.8 165%

Biomass 7.4 5.0 12.4 235%

157%

3. Positive feedback loops: The third compelling fact is to do with

the multiplier effect of clean energy jobs – while there will be a

sizable segment of direct clean energy jobs, the indirect segment

is expected to be equally sizable . Examples of direct jobs in the

clean energy space are well defined: manufacture of solar

panels, installation of wind turbines, design of green buildings,

maintenance of a biomass plant are just some examples.

Supporting these direct green jobs will be two layers of indirect

jobs:

(I) the first layer of a support infrastructure e.g. jobs in education

and skills training, jobs in recycling of materials, jobs in pollution

mitigation ( in compliance with regulatory statutes) and

professional services in the legal, consulting and environmental

audit spaces, and

(ii) Jobs created further away in the supply chain e.g. an increase

in the demand for solar PV will have a ripple effect upstream on

the extraction and pre-processing of silicon, gallium etc.

Similarly, an increase in biomass generation will result in a

simultaneous increase in farming jobs around the growth and

harvesting of the bio feedstock.

We believe that many of the estimates of green jobs by research

groups worldwide are stated on the conservative side, as they do

not incorporate dynamic feedback effects into their models.. For

example an increase in the number of green buildings will be

accompanied by an increase in the production of LED lights and

of more efficient cooling equipment. As the prices of the latter

reduce due to scale effects, this will act as an additional

inductive force for more green buildings to be designed and

built. There will also be a simultaneous increase in the number of

LEED architects, auditors of green buildings, recyclers and so on.

The implications of the above points above will be of prime

interest to policy makers who are involved in shaping India’s

inclusive growth agenda– not only will there be many more jobs

available for all sections of the emerging Indian workforce but

the range of job profiles will require a concerted response on

creating the right education infrastructure . Universities and

colleges must create capability on a large scale in the different

disciplines of clean energy. In parallel, the vocational institutes

of the country must be able to train large numbers on the new

skills that will be required.

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INDIA: THE LOW CARBON ECONOMYCAN DRIVE ITS INCLUSIVEGROWTH AGENDA

We think that the next two decades present an unprecedented

opportunity for India to carve out a leadership position in the

low carbon world of the future. Done right – through right

policies and inter-governmental collaboration – we can realize

three significant benefits: reduced emissions, higher

productivity of the economy, and inclusive growth. Providing

energy access to rural India and a distributed model of

generating jobs that is not urban centric will be the real drivers

of the inclusive growth story in India. As we explain in the

following sections, a low carbon model is the optimal way to

meet the both goals.

Green jobs worldwide

Several studies of job generation in clean energy have been done

in the recent past (the bibliography in Annexure II provides a list

of sources that have been referred to). Most of these studies

however have tended to focus on the primary domains of

renewable energy and energy efficiency. We must bear this

caveat in mind that the sectors of green transportation, green

industry, pollution mitigation, recycling and sustainable

forestry / farming are yet to receive similar attention and

therefore many of the estimates of green jobs are likely to be

under-stated. A few key facts that emerge out of these studies:

The total number of employees people employed in the

renewable energy space globally was 2.3 million in 2008. The

top three countries are China (1 million), USA (0.46 million) and

Germany (0.28 million). India’s renewable energy industry

currently employs 200,000 (0.2 million) people. All these

numbers include both, direct and indirect jobs.

More than half of the jobs are in services – Engineering, Legal,

Research and Consulting. This highlights the crucial importance

of the indirect sector.

Under the right policy and market conditions, the total number

of jobs in the renewable energy space is estimated to grow more

than five times to around 15 million by 2030. The top countries

are expected to be China (4 million), India (3.25 million) and USA

(2.8 million).

An interesting insight from a study conducted in 2008 by the

American Solar Energy Society (ASES) is that the number of jobs

generated by Energy Efficiency – Building Retrofits, Energy star

appliances, Efficient Industrial motors etc – is expected to be 5

to 6 times more than that from renewable energy. However,

most of the estimates do not include jobs in Energy Efficiency.

A recent report by Clean Edge ranks the top five sectors for green

jobs as: Solar, Biofuels and Biomass, Conservation and

Efficiency, Smart Grid, and Wind Power. In our opinion, this

ranking is likely to change over the next two decades; while Solar

is likely to hold on to its # 1 position, the other positions are

likely to get shuffled quite significantly.

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Green jobs in India

In assessing the job generation potential for India over the next

two decades, we have focused on the sectors that Wipro is most

familiar with – Renewable Energy and Green IT. Our estimates

are based on a careful analysis of the methodologies commonly

in-use. These have been applied to the projected Indian

scenarios of the next two decades. For wind energy and biomass,

we have considered the known potentials for India. Whereas for

solar energy, we have considered the targets that the National

Solar Mission has recently published i.e. 20 GW by 2020 and 100

GW by 2030.

Renewable Energy: We estimate that 3.25 million direct and

indirect jobs can be generated by 2030 for the renewable energy

sectors of Solar, Wind and Biomass alone ( See Annexure I for

details). These jobs span the entire value chain – Research,

Manufacturing and Services ; Given that a significant

proportion of the services jobs will be around relatively low

skilled jobs e.g. biomass collecting and sorting, equipment

assembly, technical maintenance, we think that this opens up a

great opportunity for job generation in the rural and semi-urban

areas. Job generation in the renewable energy sector can be

purposefully aligned with the programs on poverty alleviation

and vocational skills enhancement e.g. NREGA.

Green back-office: Over the last three decades, India has built a

formidable position for itself in the global IT and ITES sectors.

Building on this strength and with little incremental capital

investment, India can become the green back-office of the

world. A recent McKinsey report (Strengthening India’s

offshoring industry, August 2009, McKinsey Quarterly) suggests

that propelled by the new areas of Energy Efficiency, Clinical

Research and Mobile Platforms, the value of the Indian IT

services exports could rise to $ 100 Bn to $ 130 Bn by 2020.

Remote Energy Management Services is a new off-shoring

opportunity that Indian companies must immediately start to

capitalize on.

Another McKinsey report (How IT can cut carbon emissions)

suggests that the innovative use of IT in just five sectors –

Buildings, Power, Transport, Manufacturing and Telecommuting

– offers a ready platform for the Indian IT industry to shape itself

into the ‘green’ back-office of the world. The Smart Grid

infrastructure is a powerful illustration of how India can

capitalize on this emerging IT opportunity ; Through the use of

intelligent sensors, meters and automated sub-stations, an

estimated $ 85 Bn of savings on a global level is possible. Of this,

the IT applications are of the order of $ 10 Bn. In addition, India

can generate an additional $ 12 BN in energy productivity

through a 30 % reduction in transmission losses by

implementing smart grids in its own power infrastructure.

Based on the above-mentioned reports, we arrive at a

conservative estimate USD $ 25 Bn as the value of India’s IT-

enabled green services. The primary areas to focus on would be

in: remote Monitoring of clients’ energy consumption,

geospatial energy modeling, engineering design services, smart

grid applications, green supply chain applications and green

data center services. We estimate the job generation potential

for this segment to be another 750,000 (0.75 million).

Other clean sectors: In this paper, we have not attempted an

assessment of job generation potential for other clean energy

sectors – Green Transportation, Green Industry, Sustainable

Habitat, Sustainable Agriculture and Forestry and Cleaner

conventional energy. Based on an analysis of available reports

for other countries, we suggest a ballpark estimate of an

additional 4-6 million jobs by 2030 for these sectors. Just the

labor-intensive recycling sector alone – where China already

employs 10 million people – is likely to become big in India as

well. We submit that the total green job potential in India ranges

from 8-10 million by 2030. Making this happen will require

innovative and strong policy interventions by the government

and policy makers and an equally robust response from industry,

education and the finance sector.

Carving a leadership position in green: We talked about the

green back-office and India’s natural strengths in this sector.

But we think that India’s green vision must extend far beyond its

natural capabilities in IT and in services – under the right

combination of a progressive policy framework, an international

regime that drives technology transfer to developing countries

and an education infrastructure that aids research and

innovation, India has the opportunity to carve for itself a

leadership position in a high value area of green i.e. in research,

education, manufacturing, design etc. We have not attempted

to estimate the additional job creation potential for such a

scenario in this paper.

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BRIDGING THE ENERGY DIVIDE

With 51 percent of the Indian population having no access to

electricity, the energy divide in our country is deep. Access to

electricity is a fundamental pre-requisite for sustainable

development – studies clearly show a remarkable improvement

in health and sanitation, education levels and gender equity

with access to electricity.

The cost of providing access to centralized electricity grids,

especially to remote rural areas is prohibitive. According to a

recent study , the total levelized cost of providing electricity to a

village that is merely 25 Kms away from the nearest 33 KV

substation is likely to range from Rs 3.68 per unit to Rs 23.50 per

unit, depending on the connected load. Since the load factors in

villages are normally low, the cost per unit usually exceeds Rs 10

per unit. This cost only increases with the distance of the village

from the substation. For thousands of villages in the remote

rural hinterland of India, the cost per unit of most forms of

renewable energy is not only comparable but is likely to be

considerably less than the cost of grid-connected electricity.

We think therefore that decentralized micro-grids based on

renewable energy must form the backbone of our policy and

execution to bridge the energy divide – localized installations of

solar PV or biomass energy are speedier and more cost effective

ways to power India’s villages than from central power stations

that run on coal or hydro.

In summary,

Inclusive growth has two vital dimensions – distributed job

generation and cost-effective access to energy . By adopting a

low carbon trajectory of socio-economic growth ,India can

progress significantly on both these dimensions

T

he eight missions of the NAPCC can provide the right platform

for fueling India’s low carbon growth . In addition, a post-

Copenhagen international regime that facilitates adequate

technology and funds transfer from Annex I countries to

developing nations like India can boost the green economy

visibly.

As the next step, we suggest the commissioning of a

comprehensive study of the low carbon options available to

India on multiple dimensions – economic growth, job

generation, ecological mitigation, energy access and energy

security. Wipro will be happy to participate in and lead such a

study.

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Target installed capacity in MW (2020)

Target installedcapacity in MW (2030)

Estimated # of jobsgenerated (2020)

Estimated # of job generated (2030)

Solar

Wind

Biomass

Total of Above

Green Back Office

Other Sectors

Total

20,000

15,000

10,000

45,000

100,000

35,000

10,000

145,000

400,000

150,000

750,000

1,300,000

350,000

1.5 to 3 million

3 to 4.5 million

2,000,000

350,000

900,000

3,250,000

750,000

4 to 6 million

7 to 10 million

Notes:

I. For all the three cases above, the estimate of generated jobs is for the entire supply chain – equipment manufacture, consulting,

assembly & installation, systems integration, maintenance.

The estimate has been done based on our knowledge of the renewable energy domain and publicly available benchmark information.

However, a much more rigorous study and analysis is required to verify and state these figures with an adequate sense of accuracy.

The methodologies commonly in-use adopt a ‘Jobs per MW’ model, where the number of jobs across the supply chain are estimated for

every MW of installed capacity. We have adopted a similar approach, but have qualified it further by accounting for the higher labor

intensity of work in India.

ii. The number of jobs per unit is relatively high for ‘Biomass’ because the supply chain of agricultural feedstock and its distribution is

labor heavy.

iii. The total potential for Wind Energy and Biomass for India is estimated at 45 GW and 20 GW by the IEA ( International Energy

Association) ; The assumption here is that close to full potential will be reached by 2030 under the right conditions of regulatory and

fiscal enablement

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ANNEXURE B: BIBLIOGRAPHY & REFERENCES

i.Green Jobs: Towards Decent Work in a Sustainable, Low-Carbon World

UNEP (United Nations Environment Program) Report, September 2008

ii.The Economic Benefits of Investing in Clean Energy: How the Economic Stimulus Program and New Legislation

can Boost US Economic Growth and Employment

Robert Pollin, James Heintz & Heidi Garrett-Peltier

Dept of Economics and Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), Univ of Massachusetts, Amherst, June 2009

iii.The Clean Tech Job Trends Report 2009

Ron Pernick, Clint Wilder, Dexter Gauntlett & Trecor Winnie

CleanEdge Report, Oct 2009

iv.The Clean Energy Economy: Repowering Jobs, Businesses and Investments Across America

Pew Charitable Trusts, USA, June 2009

v.Strengthening India’s Offshoring Industry

Noshir Kaka

McKinsey Quarterly August 2009

vi.How IT can Cut Carbon Emissions

Giulio Boccaletti, Markus Löffler, and Jeremy M. Oppenheim

McKinsey Quarterly, October 2008

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