wind power potential in developing countries...wind power potential in developing countries 14 march...

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Wind Power Potential in Developing Countries

14 March 2012 │ ESMAP/IFC Wind Energy Seminar

Kasper Dalsten Senior Specialist, Government Relations

Vestas Mediterranean

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Source: Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) – Annual Market Update 2010

MW

5,000 MW

10,000 MW

15,000 MW

20,000 MW

25,000 MW

30,000 MW

Europe North America Asia Oceania Latin America &Caribbean

Africa & Middle East

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011E

2012E

2013E

2014E

2015E

Annual installed wind capacity by region 2000-2010

, and estimates 2011-2015

The Developing World is Ready for Wind Power Wind power: a natural part of modern energy supply with appropriate regulatory framework





3

Cost ranges (USD/MWh) for newly built power plants in OECD and BRIC countries (IEA 2010)

The Developing World is Ready for Wind Power Wind power: mature technology with low and competitive costs

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Largehydro

Nuclear Coal Gas Onshorewind

Offshorewind

Oil Solar PV

Cos

t (U

S$/

MW

h)





4

The Developing World is Ready for Wind Power Wind power: predictable cost of energy and a natural hedge against fuel price volatility

Source: IMF WEO various years, after Ossowski et al. (2008) Source: MAKE Consulting 2011

WEO Oil Price Forecasts, 2003-2009 (US$/barrel) Fossil fuel prices are volatile and unpredictable

Brazilian Wind Tender Pricing (BRL vs. USD/MWh) Wind power is competitive in open auctions





5

The Developing World is Ready for Wind Power Great wind resources offering competitive power generation

Source: Vestas MesoMap Sources: Econ Pöyry for sub-Saharan Africa RCREEE for North Africa

Best wind spot in average m/s at 80 meters Marginal cost of electricity in USD/MWh

- 4.9

5.0 - 6.9

7.0 - 8.9

9.0 -

Not available

- 49

50 - 99

100 - 149

150 -





6

The Developing World is Ready for Wind Power Large wind power potential in the short term and the long term

Northern Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa

Wind potential in Africa Estimation based on wind resources, accessibility and bankability

Sources: HIS Energy Research 2011; Energy Policy - The International Journal of the Political, Economic, Planning, Environmental and Social Aspects of Energy 2011; and Vestas estimates

North Africa

35 GW

Sub-Saharan Africa

26 GW

Africa

Medium term (By 2030)

Under construction & Projects with MoU

Long term

2 GW

10 GW

14 GW

2 GW

18 GW

14 GW

61 GW

4 GW

28 GW

28 GW

Existing by 2010 1.5 GW 1.5 GW

Total potential


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Wind Projects Long Term Service Agreements. Operations and Maintenance of Wind Farms in Developing Countries Jean-Christophe Paupe – [email protected] Vice President, Service –MED, LAC, Africa

AOM® – Active Output Management® 1

mailto:[email protected]

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Cost of Energy embraces all aspects in wind power performance

Annualized CAPEX + Annualized OPEX

Annual Energy Production CoE =

CAPEX [EUR/year]

OPEX / MTBI

AEP [MWh] / Yield

Operation, Maintenance and administration cost

Foundations

Turbine supply agreement

Electrical infrastructure

Installation, construction and other items

Power curve and average wind speed

Availability, Wake, Electrical losses

CoE [EUR/MWh]

×

÷

+

+

25-35% of CoE

Safety Highest service quality at highest safety standard.

Control of Hazardous Energy Electrical Safety Safety Awareness Incident Management Contractor Management Ergonomics

Vestas Standards

Lost Production Factor (LPF) Improvement

Our fleet performance has improved by 50% over

the past 12 months We are now under 2%

VMED Lost Production Factor 2010-2011




Vestas Service Organisation in Numbers*

* As per H2 2011




MONITOR IDENTIFY

& INITIATE

PLAN & REPAIR

LEARN & IMPROVE

Vestas Mediterranean Control Centre

WIND FARM

Optic fiber

SURVEILLANCE CENTRE

InternetDial-in

Internet

Dial-in

TECHNICIAN

SITE SUPERVISOR

SERVICE SUPERVISOR

TECHNICAL DEPARTMENT

Alarm notification

Turbine Performance Management Services

Supported by the 50th biggest computer in the world, Performance deviations in the fleet are identified to INITIATE and OPTIMIZE OPERATIONS activities for MORE PRODUCTION at the RIGHT

TIME at the RIGHT COST

VESTAS Service Team Morocco




Continuous Turbine Performance improvement

Vestas Turbine Monitor Alert

ERP Work order including FAQ and trouble shooting

guides

FAQ and support documents updates

Maintenance Visit Findings Resolution and spare parts used




CERTIFIED TRAINING SAFETY VALUES FIELD EXPERIENCE

Training certified by:

Highest HSE standards, OHSAS 18001 certified

R&D optimised diagnostics and maintenance strategy

Support from technical help desk

LEAN problem solving techniques

Certified technicians (4 levels) with the right knowledge and skills

Industry leader in safety and training

VESTAS TECHNICIANS arrive well prepared, supported by a large team & knowledge base. You benefit from:

Mandatory “Safety Walks” by management

Technicians empowered to stop work if something appears unsafe or someone is at risk

“Safety First” is the primary value driver for Vestas service technicians

Advanced turbine technology and safe operations require competent personnel. The Right PEOPLE




DATA ANALYSES

VTM – Vestas Turbine Monitoring CMS – Condition Monitoring System

Analysing more than 130 signals from heat sensors

Detecting potential failures and outliers

Assessing the "health" of a machine by analysing measured signals

Assessments integrated into work planning

Estimating the time of failure, using the weather conditions and the best PPA optimised planning of maintenance activities

In-house ISO Certified Vibration Engineers

Assessments integrated into work planning

Vestas builds predictive intelligence through research, monitoring and field experience to maximize the output using different systems.

The Right INTELLIGENCE

PREDICTIVE CONDITION BASED MAINTENANCE

VESTAS PERFORMANCE AND DIAGNOSTICS CENTRE (VDPC) monitors over 21 500 turbines amounting to almost 33 GW

MONITOR IDENTIFY

& INITIATE

PLAN & REPAIR

LEARN & IMPROVE




Performance deviations in the fleet are identified to INITIATE OPERATIONS

activities at the RIGHT TIME

Planning of maintenance based on Vestas weather forecast

to MAXIMIZE PRODUCTION

MONITOR IDENTIFY

& INITIATE

PLAN & REPAIR

LEARN & IMPROVE

Maintenance strategy

Predictive Maintenance

Corrective Maintenance

Preventive Maintenance

Maintenance operations and planning are executed synchronously by prevention through prediction.

The Right OPERATIONS and MAINTENANCE PLAN

Vestas Turbine Watch provides 12+ years expertise in of 24/7/365 SURVEILLANCE

Findings used to provide RELIABLE PERFORMANCE & OUTPUT MANAGEMENT




The Right INFRASTRUCTURE

TECHNOLOGY HOTLINE AND PRODUCT UPGRADES

Synchronized service support structure.

Global delivery, logistics and sourcing network

Certainty of quality, supply and control of cost

Repair capabilities for generators, gearbox and other components

GLOBAL SPARE PARTS AND REPAIR

24/7 surveillance center/hotline accessible through email or phone

High expert knowledge available at country or region level Open normal business hours, accessible through 1st level support

Access to unique OEM technical expert knowledge Failure analysis & proactive engineering upgrades to enhance performance

1st Level Support

2nd Level Support Technology R&D

ERP Work Order and Guides for fixing issues, list of necessary spare parts and list of other maintenance tasks

Efficient service operations and strategic maintenance planning

CUSTOMISED ERP AND PROPRIETARY FAQ

The Right LOGISTIC Vestas Spare Parts and Repair setup

Drop off Warehouse

Repair Facility

Parts and Repairs

Provider

Operations

In-house Repair Distribution

Vestas

central

parts setup

Local Sourcing

Central Sourcing Regional

Warehouse

Parts Depot

Parts Exchange New Parts

New Parts

New Parts

Parts exchange

Wind Turbines End Customer

Wind Turbines End Customer

Kan Ban of ready components

Kan Ban of ready components

Site Warehouse

Full scope contracts

TOC Yr 10 Yr 20 Yr 15

Renewal Renewal

A full scope contract means no unforeseen and no unbudgeted maintenance costs

Contract duration of up to 15 years – warranty like coverage for the duration

Aligned incentives through upside sharing with industry leading performance guarantees matched to your site needs

Option of All Risk Insurance in selected markets. A unique option that can only be obtained through Vestas

Access to +30 years experience of operating and maintaining wind farms

Invoke a long term relationship with Vestas

Yr 2

Warranty Site mobilisation & handover

Commissioning

Full Scope Performance Based Contracts Vestas’ service contract guarantee levels fit with your life cycle needs.

0,0

100,0

200,0

300,0

400,0

500,0

600,0

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

Wind speeds

Hou

rs

0,0

100,0

200,0

300,0

400,0

500,0

600,0

700,0

800,0

900,0

MW

h

Distribution of hours in a year at different wind speeds

Energy produced in a year at different wind speeds

21%

50%

Source: V112 3MW turbine; noise mode 0; air density 1,225; Wind distribution estimated with a A = 8 and k 2,2

Capturing the Wind Energy based availability incentivizes Vestas to ensure availability when the wind is there

In a typical wind farm 50% of Annual Energy Production is obtained in 21% of available time




The Guarantees Side-by-Side AOM 4000

100% Time based availability

Measures the TIME the turbine is available to make power

• Main Focus : Wind Farm Availability

AOM 5000

100% Energy based availability

Measures the Production that is captured from the wind resources

available at the site

• Main Focus : LPF (Lost Production Factor)

Energy

Wind

Power Generation

Maximize Total O/P

Time

Maximize Time “Available”

Energy

Advantages: • Aligns Vestas to Customer’s business

• Optimizes the production output • Focus on running and non-running

losses, on ROI • Demonstrated bankability

Challenges:

• Wind windows available for planned maintenance scheduling

Advantages: • Demonstrated bankability

• Almost a Standard? offer in the industry

Challenges • Not aligned with customer revenue stream

• Creeping expectations on guarantee

wind power potential in developing countries...wind power potential in developing countries 14 march...

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