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  • Why I.T., Why Success?

    Pavel Kysilka, Deputy CEO and Board Member, esk spoitelna, a.s.

    Conference to 15th Anniversary of the Czech National Bank and the 10th Anniversary of InflationTargeting, 8 April 2008, NB, Senovn nm. 30, Prague

  • 1998 Switch To Inflation Targeting: Why

    Dissapointment with monetary targeting 1991 97

    really MT?

    in fact monetary schizophrenia

    Fixed ER abandoned in 1997

    Real opportunity to have a textbook pure monetary targeting

    2

  • Ignored Opportunity

    Lack of confidence in expectation power of MT

    IT new challenge: communicationcredibility

    ? real transmission

    expectations

    3

  • Communications & Credibility

    inflation vs net inflationshort term vs longer termpublic vs analysts, experts

    public: netterm

    analysts: inflationterm

    inflation

    net

    short

    longer

    4

  • Enemies & Allies & Neutrals

    E A

    N

    global inflation; commoditiesbusiness cycleretail market (internal competition)external competition (openess)IR relevancewe

    double digit and increasing inflation

    we

    exchange ratemonetization

    expectations

    5

  • Money supply/Loans/GDP ratio

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    80

    1995

    1996

    1997

    1998

    1999

    2000

    2001

    2002

    2003

    2004

    2005

    2006

    M2/GDP

    Loans/GDP

    Householdloans/GDP

    Corporateloans/GDP

    %

    6

  • New bankrupticies

    0

    500

    1000

    1500

    2000

    2500

    3000

    1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

    7

  • Inflation expectations in 1998

    0,0

    2,0

    4,0

    6,0

    8,0

    10,0

    12,0

    14,0

    NB

    Cred

    itanst

    alt KB

    SOB B

    Pat ria S

    Go

    vernm

    ent

    OECD

    Expa

    ndia

    Wood

    2 3 1 2 2 3 4 21 4

    CPI (%)

    8

  • Inflation

    -2

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    14

    01/98 04/98 07/98 10/98 01/99 04/99 07/99 10/99 01/00 04/00-5

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    Total inflation Net infaltion Price adjustment inflation

    CPI(%)

    9

  • Inflation expectations in 1998

    10

    0,0

    2,0

    4,0

    6,0

    8,0

    10,0

    12,0

    14,0

    NB

    Credita

    nstal t K

    B

    SOB B

    Patria S

    Go

    vernm

    en t OECD

    Expand

    iaWo

    od

    2 3 1 2 2 3 4 21 4

    CPI (%)

    CPI

    Ni

    CPI

    NI

  • Global inflation

    0,0

    0,5

    1,0

    1,5

    2,0

    2,5

    3,0

    3,5

    4,0

    1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

    USA EU

    CPI(%)

    11

  • Commodities helped

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    95 97 99 01 03 05 07

    Wheat

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    14

    16

    95 97 99 01 03 05 07

    Gas

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    95 97 99 01 03 05 07

    Oil0

    500

    1000

    1500

    2000

    2500

    3000

    95 97 99 01 03 05 07

    Aluminium

    05000

    100001500020000250003000035000400004500050000

    95 97 99 01 03 05 07

    Nickel

    12

  • Openess of the economy: (X+M)/GDP

    020406080

    100120140160180

    1995

    1996

    1997

    1998

    1999

    2000

    2001

    2002

    2003

    2004

    2005

    2006

    2007

    %

    13

  • GDP and unemployment

    -4

    -2

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

    GDP Unemployment

    14

  • Exchange rate

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    40

    45

    1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

    CZK/EUR CZK/USD

    15

  • Market share war

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    80

    90

    1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

    hypermarket supermarketdiskont

    %

    16

  • Why I.T., Why Success?

    Why IT? I dont know

    Why success? I dont know

    Thank you.

    17

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