why is it best to start preparing for transactions now in vietnam?
TRANSCRIPT
Why Is It Best To Start Preparing For Transactions Now In Vietnam? Oliver Massmann
Vietnam is currently at the final stage of negotiating the Trans-Pacific Partnership (“TPP”) and the EU-
Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (“EVFTA”). Meanwhile, the ASEAN Economic Community, which
Vietnam became a full member in 1995, is to be established by the end of 2015. With such deep
integration into the multilateral and regional economy, Vietnam is expected to be an attractive investment
environment for investors and witness a significant growth in the upcoming years. Samsung Electronics
Company has decided to choose Vietnam as the Number 1 country to put their world largest mobile and
tablet production and invested more than 6 Billion USD after a researching worldwide. Also major
Japanese companies are convinced Vietnam is a top investment destination and become the largest
investors in Vietnam. However, whether foreign investors should wait until the TPP and the EVFTA are
concluded and the AEC has been established to enjoy their benefits then is a big question. The following
section provides an overview of these free trade agreements and the AEC to help investors understand
what is awaiting them ahead and choose the right time for their investment.
TPP
The TPP is one of the largest trade and investment agreements ever to be negotiated, involving some of
the largest nations in the world. Countries participating in the negotiations include those throughout the
Asia- Pacific region, namely Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand,
Peru, Singapore, the United States and Vietnam. The TPP is touted to be the 21st century trade agreement,
set a template for regional and global trade and investment and incorporate next-generation issues.
TPP Market Snapshot
GDP: US$28,136.0 billion (2012)
GDP per capita: US$35,488 (2012)
Population: 792.8 million (2012)
TPP % of world GDP: 39.0% (2012)
TPP % of world population: 11.3% (2012)
TPP % of world trade: 25.8% (2012)
The TPP is being negotiated across thirty chapters with deep focus on comprehensive market access, a
fully regional agreement, cross-cutting issues (regulatory coherence, competiveness and business
facilitation, small and medium sized enterprises, and development), new trade challenges (particularly
rules on state owned enterprises and government procurement); as well as, finally, the notion of a living
agreement.
The TPP would expand market access in goods and services among its signatories. The market access
issues include liberalization of trade barriers protecting dairy, sugar, and rice; tariffs and origin rules
affecting textiles, clothing, and footwear; and services trade reforms, especially financial services,
insurance, and labor services. Vietnam would be the largest beneficiary of this trade pact, resulting from
its strong trade ties with the United States, high level of protection against its main exports (i.e., apparel
and footwear), and its highly competitive positions in industries such as manufacturing where China is
gradually losing its competitive advantage. Statistics shows that by participating in the TPP, Vietnam’s
GDP would add an additional increase of 13.6% to the baseline scenario.
Higher income will help Vietnam to invest more and grow more
Vietnam is among the largest income gains in TPP
Recently, President Barack Obama has been grated fast-track authority to negotiate the TPP with other 11
nations. This shows a step closer to its conclusion, hopefully by the end of 2015.
AEC
The AEC originates from the ASEAN Vision 2020, which was adopted in 1997 on the 30th anniversary
of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, made up of Brunei Darussalam, Myanmar, Cambodia,
Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam (ASEAN). With a population
of more than 600 million and a nominal GDP of about $2.31 trillion, ASEAN is a strong economic
community in Asia and also a driver of global growth.
The AEC encompass the following characteristics: (i) a single market and production base, (ii) a highly
competitive economic region, (iii) a region of equitable economic development, and (iv) a region fully
integrated into the global economy.
The AEC is expected to be an area where goods can circulate freely and in which custom duties on goods
will be gradually reduced to 0%. It will establish ASEAN as a single market and production base, making
ASEAN more dynamic and competitive with new mechanisms and measures to strengthen the
implementation of its existing economic initiatives; accelerating regional integration in the prioritized
sectors; facilitating movement of business persons, skilled labor and talents; and strengthening the
institutional mechanisms of ASEAN.
The free flow of investment will also offer enhanced investment protection to all ASEAN investors and
their investments in other ASEAN member countries, including the settlement mechanism of an investor
state dispute based on a non-discrimination principle when investing in other ASEAN countries. Those
principles play a very important role in providing investor confidence when making cross-border
investment.
Once the AEC is completed, it will be a unified market, a common manufacturing area seeking for more
dynamic and competitive development and to create new opportunities for tariff reductions as well as
other trade incentives.
AEC Market Snapshot
GDP: US$2311.3 billion (2012)
GDP per capita: US$3748.4 (2012)
Population: 620 million, 60% under the age of 35
AEC % of world GDP: ~3.3%
AEC % of world population: 9%
AEC’s merchandise exports: US$1.2 trillion - ~54% of total ASEAN GDP and 7% of global
exports
If ASEAN were one economy, it would be the 7th largest in the world – 4
th largest by 2050 if
growth trends continue
EVFTA
It is estimated that Vietnam’s Gross Domestic Products (GDP) could rise by over 15% and that the value
of its exports to the European Union could increase by almost 35% as a result of its entry into force.
In 2013, the EU was Vietnam’s second biggest trade partner with a total value of trade in goods of EUR
24.2 billion. In the same the EU was also Vietnam’s biggest export market with EUR 21 billion,
representing 19% of Vietnam’s total export. Vietnam’s export to EU increased by 28% from 2012 to
2013. In addition, the EU is among the biggest investors in Vietnam, with 1,810 FDI projects in 2013.
The EU committed to continuing to support with the foreseen assistance amount of EUR 400 million in
the coming six years. EU exports to Vietnam are dominated by high-tech products including electrical
machinery and equipment, aircraft, vehicles, and pharmaceutical products. Vietnam’s key export items to
the EU include telephone sets, electronic products, footwear, textiles and clothing, coffee, rice, aqua
products, and furniture.
The two parties have already been cooperating on various subject matters since the conclusion of the EU-
Vietnam Partnership and Cooperation Agreement in June 2012. This cooperation will be brought to the
next level by the conclusion of the FTA, which will tackle issues such as tariff and non-tariff barriers,
regulatory issues, services, public procurement, Intellectual Property Rights, sustainable development,
etc. 2015 will mark the 25th anniversary of EU-Vietnam cooperation, and it is expected to be the year the
EU-VN FTA is concluded.
Conclusion: Why investment in Vietnam now – not after the trade pacts are signed and sealed?
Vietnam ties in first place with Singapore, thus it provides highest possible protection for
investment
Country Limitation of
market access*
Country Limitation of
market access*
Malaysia medium Myanmar high
Indonesia medium Cambodia medium
Philippines medium Laos medium
Singapore low India high
Thailand medium China medium
Brunei high Vietnam low
*Typical restrictions: number of opened sectors, JV requirement, limits on foreign-owned shares,
permission requirement
Vietnam has the fastest growing middle class with a very good demographic situation: about 90
Million people of which about 50 percent are under 30 years old.
Expectations of Vietnam parties might get unreasonable, the same as after Vietnam acceded to
the WTO in 2007 and no projects could be done.
Market opening in certain sectors, for example, media, and there could be more competing
companies from the AEC with better market access to Vietnam. Thus, it is vital that investors
start working on their projects now to position themselves as early as possible before the coming
into effect of the trade pacts and the AEC.
Please do not hesitate to contact Oliver Massmann under [email protected] if you have any
questions on the above. Oliver Massmann is the General Director of Duane Morris Vietnam LLC.
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THANK YOU VERY MUCH!