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Why Development and Aid Projects become Distressed or Fail,

and Strategies for Intervention and Recovery

Executive Summary

The media commonly reports waste and failure in aid projects. Cases in point include the

thousands of homeless in Haiti after several years and billions of dollars spent, or the

$250,000,000 spent to build 550 kilometers of sewage collectors in Paraguay, the project, which

was abandoned in 2004 and never completed (IEG 2010). Similar cases occur every year across

the developing world. Yet trends indicate that aid spending is increasing (de Haan 2009).

Despite the many failures there is widespread, international public and governmental support

for aid. Several former US presidents and pop icons such as Madonna and Sean Penn have aid

organizations. UN organizations and governments in the developed world are active

proponents of aid. Nonetheless aid projects intended to alleviate poverty, human suffering or

some basic need commonly fail. If aid money spending continues to increase every year, should

the success rates of aid projects demonstrate commensurate levels of increase? Evidence

indicates the contrary. Over the past decade projects costing hundreds of millions of dollars

have failed and others are currently in serious distress (Sammon, D., Adam, F., 2012) (Wall

Street Journal, February 9, 2011). I propose that through the application of project

management concepts, failure and distress rates in aid projects can be decreased, millions of

dollars can be saved, and the intended beneficiaries can better served. This includes focusing

on the core deliverables of a project rather than dissipating finite resources into legitimate yet

parallel, non-core objectives such as local capacity building, or insisting that local partners reach

Western standards of governance during the project implementation period. Evidence

suggests that projects often fail entirely through excessive involvement in secondary

objectives. Lessons that the for-profit industries are currently learning in war zones and other

high risk environments similar to those of aid projects may be adapted to aid projects to

increase their success rate. These lessons are intrinsic to project management models and

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methods, and should be embraced by the aid community to bring about higher levels of

successful implementations.

Methods:

Why do projects fail?

There are three main bodies of research regarding aid project failure. The largest body is

focused on broad macroeconomic development and large-scale indicators such as literacy

rates, per-capita income, or the prevalence of disease in a nation or province. Aid detractors

often base their positions on ex-post macro indicators. Establishing causality between an

individual project and such indicators presents well-recognized challenges. The second, smaller

area focuses on micro issues such as fieldwork, project activities, community processes, or

direct project outputs and outcomes. Results in these cases are somewhat easier to capture.

The third, least researched area is what James Rick calls "meso issues,” “how the people and

organizations that implement much development activity are managed, motivated, or led.” He

quotes Halley who identified the “guru syndrome;” organizations dependent on one

charismatic leader (Hailey, 1999) An example of this is the near collapse The Central Asia

Institute when its founder Greg Mortenson was disgraced for lying in his book Three Cups of

Tea. These last two bodies of research are more closely related to problems I identify and

solutions I propose through the lens of project management.

This paper will focus on identifying and responding to the challenges to project outputs,

or deliverables. I will give an overview of how the aid industry works, how its macro-structure

disconnects from individual projects, and how adjustments can be made to prevent or reduce

failure and distress. I will identify the components of successful aid projects and demonstrate

how the proper choice of project model and the correct administration of the model are keys to

avoiding distress and failure. I will use case studies to contrast and compare similar projects to

identify the roots of both failure and success. I also suggest introducing a reporting component

into the project management model to increase the likelihood of success. I will explain the

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usefulness of templates, forecasting, and other basic management tools, and how they fit into

the implementation of aid.

For the purposes of this paper I will consider failure to be either:

a. Total cancelation or abandonment of a project at some point after launching

without producing the deliverables.

b. The deliverables to be grossly and verifiably inferior to the specifications

represented in the Conditions of Satisfaction (COS) agreed upon by the stakeholders

before the project initiation.

This paper will also examine projects that became seriously distressed but did not fail entirely.

These will include:

a. Projects fully delivered but substantially behind schedule.

b. Projects with major unanticipated reductions made to the scope or quality after the

launching phase.

c. Projects completed with major, unanticipated cost overruns. Industry standards place

this rate between 10% and 50% depending on the type of project and management

model applied. Cost overruns within the margins anticipated in the original budget will

not be considered cases of distress.

Results:

Aid Projects often Fail and Suffer Distress

Madonna’s Rising Malawi, a girls’ school failed after spending $3,800,000 (NYT, 2011).

The Zoranje Haiti housing project failed after $ 3,800,000 was spent by the Clinton Foundation,

the InterAmerican Development Bank and several other agencies (Sontag, Deborah 2012). The

Norwegian government spent $ 22,000,000 on the Lake Turkana Fish Processing Plant in Kenya,

which closed a few days after opening. It remains closed until today, described by the

Associated Press as a white elephant (2007). Aid project failure is well recognized, but not

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understood by the industry. The consensus that does exist has not been strong enough to

generate systemic change. Chauvet claims that only half of the World Bank projects in Africa

succeed and barely 60% of their projects succeed worldwide (Chauvet, L., Collier, P., Duponchel,

M., 2010).

Several theories attempt to explain this. Chauvet points out that the field of project

management has focused very little on development projects. A review of the literature

confirms this. Most project management research is based on work done by for-profit

implementation agencies. He identifies critical success factors (CSF) such as project-mission,

top-management commitment, project schedule, personnel, task complexity, client-

acceptance, monitoring and feedback, communication, and troubleshooting (Pinto and Slevin,

1988). Variations of this list are common throughout the literature. In “Trees Die From the

Top” John Haily and Rick James (2004) blame aid project failure on a lack of building leadership

capacity. They say “All too often this failure of leadership results in programmatic

dysfunctionality and even organizational collapse.” Others argue that projects in general, aid or

otherwise are simply hard to manage. The failure rate of all projects ranges from as high as 83%

for IT projects to as low as 20% for road building (Frese, 2003) (Flyvbjerg, 2006).

But aid projects face an additional challenge. The profit link that drives most economic

activity is sidelined at various points of the aid chain. Lifting the imperative to make profits

seems like it would facilitate the project implementation yet the opposite is true. Market forces

usually drive for-profit organizations to correct their errors. But the principle-agent problem

between the aid agencies and the contractors they hire is systemic and often crippling.

Evidence suggests that aid and development projects fail and undergo distress at higher rates

than projects with more for-profit components. For example the entirely for-profit Pan-

American Highway in Chile succeeded while a similar not-for-profit highway in Bolivia failed

(Abarca, J.A. 2012) (Aljazeera 2013). Not-for-profit organizations have shown that they face

greater challenges with self-correction and organizational learning. Over the past fifty years

there have been repeating cycles of aid projects getting launched, failing and then being

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abandoned, costing tens of millions of dollars (Madeley, J., et al 1991). There is little evidence

that failure rates are declining despite ever increasing amounts of money going into aid.

Discussion:

Aid continues to grow because people believe in it. The optimism of our current aid

system began with the success of the Marshall Plan after WWII. Although the success of this

plan was never replicated, worldwide support for aid has continued, especially for natural

disasters, hunger, and large-scale calamities (World Public Opinion, January 2012). Campaigns

with passionate appeals by celebrities, dramatic headlines and photos lead millions of people

and their governments to fund aid. The Haiti earthquake alone generated billions in donations.

UNICEF, The Red Cross, Doctors Without Borders, and most mainstream aid agencies enjoy

wide popular support. The needs of the constituents, public compassion, and political will are

the primary drivers of the aid system.

Aid has grown into an enormous, unwieldy and deeply entrenched apparatus. The US

invested $ 13,000,000,000 into European recovery under the Marshal Plan after WW II, which

at the time represented 5% of the US GDP (Volker, R. Berghahn et al 2007). The collapse of

infrastructure had led several countries to the brink of starvation. The success of the program

led donor nations to apply the concept worldwide. During the cold-war (1947-1991) aid

strategy shifted towards thwarting the spread of communism. When communism collapsed, aid

expanded into a wide array of goals. Human rights, health, food security, democracy, economic

development and hundreds of other causes became targets. NGOs proliferated and the aid

industry mushroomed. In 2009 the total amount of money spent on aid in a single year

reached approximately $ 160,000,000,000 (de Haan 2009). In FY 2010 the budget for the

hundreds of USAID projects around the world was $ 20,300,000,000 B. Of their staff of 8,844

employees 6,368 were working on projects abroad.

Many powerful stakeholders in today’s international aid system have vested interests in

preserving the status quo. The World Food Program or WFP is one of the largest clients of

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maritime grain transport in the world. (Ingram, James 2006). Commercial shipping companies,

security firms, construction, engineering, pharmaceutical companies and a nearly infinite range

of consulting companies make billions off aid money. These organizations are the secondary

drivers of aid with well-established means to shape the system to their advantage.

What are the sources of aid money?

Most aid comes from governments, which often view aid as a policy tool. In

democracies should be an indirect expression of the will of the taxpaying electorate. Most of

this aid is coordinated through the Development Assistance Committee (DAC), an organization

of the world’s twenty-four developed nations. The IMF, World Bank and the UNDP attend DAC

meetings as observers. DAC recommendations are often implemented in bilateral agreements

made between nations. Funding goes from one government to the other to advance a

perceived interest by the donating nation, usually through national ministries in the two

countries. For example the US currently has five strategic aid objectives; governing justly and

democratically, peace and security, investing in people, economic growth, and humanitarian

assistance. An aid package will go to Venezuela for “governing justly and democratically.” This

is called a “commitment” which eventually becomes a disbursement or release of the funds to

the recipient government. The Venezuelan government may then outsource projects for this

purpose to non-governmental organizations (NGOs). This large, cumbersome system resists

change. An OECD report indicates that the lag time between commitment and disbursement

had been notoriously slow, often taking years (Lundsgaarde, Erik, 2010). The industry

introduced a performance metric that shortened the lag time. Disbursements picked up speed.

And the negative externalities associated with schedule compression, including administrative

errors involving millions of dollars filtered down through the delivery chain (OECD.org 2012). In

any case the money eventually finances programs intended to bring about the strategic

objective. The same basic pattern is followed throughout the developed world. Brazil, Russia,

India, and China (BRIC nations) are not part of DAC, but have recently débuted into the arena of

bilateral aid. China’s robust support for infrastructure projects in Africa has stirred debate

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about their interest natural resources. Although these countries are viewed as outsiders by the

“aid-club nations” their influence is growing.

What other organizations distribute aid?

Currently the aid industry is funded through three other main and often overlapping

sources; UN agencies, NGOs, and private philanthropic organizations. The twelve UN specialized

agencies such as UNESCO (United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization) or

the WHO (World Health Organization) and the thirty UN funds and programs such as the

United Nations Development Program (UNDP), the Office of the United Nations High

Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), and the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP)

(UNFOUNDATION 2012) are icons in the aid world. These organizations are likewise funded by

governments and are often considered policy proxies. Some like UNICEF obtain donations from

the general public and other sources. Building consensus for change, modification or

accountability in these organizations has proven to be extremely difficulty. The number of

stakeholders involved and the complexity of their individual political agendas tend to favor

preserving rather than modifying the system. These very large organizations outsource a lot of

their projects to NGOs, which often have greater flexibility and discretion for implementing

projects.

The third source of funding comes from the NGOs themselves. There are currently over

1,500,000 registered NGOs in the US and as many as 10,000,000 worldwide. (The Global

Journal, 2013) NGOs receive funds from literally any available source including grants from

governments, foundations, and religious organizations. Their sheer numbers attest to their

significance. They include the Red Cross, Oxfam, Amnesty International and Greenpeace. The

fourth source of funding is private foundations such as the Ford, Gates, and Rockefeller

foundations. These are the newest arrivals to the aid world and are growing in number and

importance. For example in 2004 the Gates Foundation donated $ 1.2 B to various causes (de

Haan 2009).

ANALYSIS

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Aid detractors offer compelling arguments. The success of the Marshall Plan has not

been replicated. Some claim aid creates more problems than it solves. Many ambitious

programs have resulted in bitter disappointment. Doug Bandow of the Cato Institute writes “To

truly help poor nations, Washington should end government-to-government assistance …”

(Bandow, 1997). Andrei Shleifer a prominent Harvard economist states “The consensus that aid

has failed is nearly universal among those who look at the data (Shleifer, 2009).” Thomas

Balough described the grumpy relationship between the frustrated donor and the resentful

recipient back in 1974 (Balough, T., 1974). This pattern persists until today. The donor-recipient

dyad share exasperation over frequent and widespread aid project failure. But Jeffrey Sachs a

Columbia University economist and author of “The End of Poverty” and “How Aid Can Work”

espouses a contrasting view which is the one embraced by the international aid community.

Although both positions are passionately defended by scores of scholars and practitioners, aid

and the projects it spawns continue to grow.

The aid organizations founded by public personalities are proliferating. The foundations

of former US Presidents Carter and Clinton have large aid projects worldwide. Dozens of

celebrities have active aid foundations such as George Clooney’s Not on Our Watch, Ben

Affleck’s East Congo Initiative, or Sean Penn’s Haiti Relief. These organizations enjoy broad

popular support and actively fund raise and implement projects worldwide.

A project may be well managed but yield a failed outcome. The persistence of donated

aid rice on the market drove many Haitian rice growers out of business. Hungry people were

fed but Leavitt points out that damaging local rice production capacity was not addressed

(Leavitt, Sarah 2012). This type of failure must be addressed in the design phase. Aid projects

should address any negative externalities that may offset the benefits. Prokopijević argues that

“This inverse structure of incentives breaks the stream of pressure that exists on the

commercial market. It also creates larger loopholes in the principle-agent relationship on each

point along the chain of aid delivery. Both factors enhance corruption, moral hazard and

negative selection. Instead of promoting development, aid extends the life of bad institutions

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and those in power.” (Prokopijević 2007) These problems may be successfully addressed

through good project design and management.

Evidence Aid, Charity Navigator, Disaster Accountability.org, or Givewell.org.

How is aid delivered?

Most aid is delivered through the project model. A project is defined by Wysocki as “a

sequence of unique, complex and connected activities that have one goal or purpose that must

be completed by a specific time, within budget, and according to specification” (Wysocki 2011).

The five basic constraints of a project are scope (outer perimeters), product and process quality

(what the project makes and how), schedule, (when it makes what items) and resources

(everything needed to make the products or services created by the project) and cost. One

individual, the project manager should execute his authority over these five areas to produce

the deliverables on schedule within the budget.

Projects follow a defined life cycle and schedule with deliverables due at the closing.

Public works and infrastructure are built through project management. The client, often a state

or ministry hires private contractors to create battle ships, bridges, or dams. Contractors are

usually third parties. The same type of client will also request social projects such as emergency

housing, disease prevention, or an increase in literacy rates. Often the client’s understanding of

his own request has serious limitations. Teams of advisors have to distill the technical details

into manageable knowledge the decision makers can work with. Advisors often disagree, and

divide into camps competing for influence. These factors challenge good project design. Still

the natural asymmetry of information is an inherent vulnerability in nearly all projects and must

be addressed through good project management.

How should project failure be avoided?

Proper Base:

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First an aid project should be based on the research that establishes the causality of the

proposed solution to the problem being addressed. It must consider the strength of any

published contrary views and consider the prevailing industry-wide held view if there is one.

Context-specific (country, region, tribe, community) research should demonstrate that the

proposed solution is compatible with the population being targeted. It should include the

history of similar interventions there. Projects often fail due to a shallow investigation of local

history, culture and conditions. Once a project is properly designed it is possible to focus on the

project model and its management as a vehicle to produce the deliverables. Second, an aid

project should be based on the standards developed by project management. Although this is

an extensive field I will explain some basic concepts needed for aid projects.

Apply Basic Project Management Principles:

The Nine Project Knowledge Areas

The Project Management Book of Knowledge (PMBOK) identifies nine knowledge areas

common to all projects: integration, scope, time, quality, human resources, communications,

risk, and procurement. A successful project is built on a solid foundation of all nine areas.

Project distress may be identified and traced to one or more of these areas and remedied

through a good intervention strategy.

1. Project Integration: The integration of a project links the project plan, the project

execution, the monitoring of progress, the incorporation of changes and learning into

one united process. This is done through good project design and management.

Annex 6

2. Scope: The scope or outer boundaries of project must be clearly and unambiguously

defined. In malaria prevention project it may be the total number of clients expected to

be served, or the limits of the territory targeted. For a water-well it may include the

gallons per minute, and the details of the pump and its operation. It may be called the

“functional specification”, or the “statement of work”. A document is created in the

scope meeting which may be called the “project request form”, the “document of

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understanding” or the “scoping statement”. In all cases it is the same thing. It is

extremely important since it is the foundation for the project itself, and all the work to

be carried out. The scoping must be done carefully and accurately in conjunction with

the Conditions of Satisfaction (COS) Meeting. Relevant stakeholders should have an

informed and committed representation in the COS. A document is produced which

unambiguously defines the deliverables, when and how they will be verified, and the

conditions whereby the project may be considered completed. Other errors can be

under and over-scoping. Anthony Uhl with the Peace Corps developed a rural bakery in

Camate-Tchakaloke, Benin, Africa that got off to a great start. Local villagers were

getting fresh bread at affordable prices. The women running the bakery applied their

training, and turned a profit. Suddenly it completely collapsed. The banking and

budgeting training was too weak. It was under scoped (Uhl, Antony 2012). Allan

Rosenbaum in his discussion of excellence stresses importance of quality training all the

way down to the “smallest village”. (Rosenbaum Allan, et al.,2008, p.5) Likewise over

scoping can drain scarce resources. The scope has to bring together a harmonious and

balanced union of the objectives, the resources, and schedule.

Annex 7

3. Time or Schedule: Time is best managed through a well-designed schedule built into the

work breakdown structure (WSB). Cost and time tend to be inversely related. Political

pressure has hurried many projects into disaster. Don Cohen speculates that “schedule

compression” contributed to the NASA Challenger crash resulting in the deaths of all

seven crewmembers in 1986 (Coen, Don, 2012). Parkinson’s Law states that work will

expand to whatever time frame you assign to it (Wysocki 2011). Durations need to be

assigned to all the tasks in a project taking into account interdependent and

predecessor task relationships. An estimation of the percentage of impossible or

difficult-to-know information should be made and factored in accordingly. This unknown

element is common in projects and simply has to be managed.

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4. Cost: The gold standard for cost estimation is the use of reference class forecasting.

Annex 3 Reference class forecasting is a model based on researching the costs of

analogous projects. What the client wants is often out of line with expected cost (Steak-

appetite, bologna-budget). Underbidding on a project to win the contract often results

in half-baked disasters. Everything spent should create social and or political value.

Costs should be assigned to tasks on the Work Breakdown Structure (WBS). The field of

social endeavors is rife with failures stemming from “cost creep”. David Sammon and

Frederic Adam (2012) discuss the Irish Health Service, which budgeted a renovation of

their information systems at $ 10 M. They ended up spending $ 160 M before finally

suspending the project (pp. 223-246). Costs and cost controls need to be realistically

aligned with the expected product. Costs may be estimated using software, risk factors,

and complex calculations. There is the three-point technique, the Delphi, the Wide-

Band Delphi, and several others. While these may be useful I will quote SU Professor

Don Harter’s rule # 3 for calculating costs: Ask the top experts on your team to come up

with an estimate. Then you take that amount and multiply by π, or 3.14. (Class notes

Project Management, September 17, 2012). This will be your most accurate figure

outside of the best method, which is reference class forecasting.

Annex 8

5. Quality: What will be produced and how it will be produced must be clearly defined

and agreed upon by the relevant stakeholders. There are two types of quality, product

quality and process quality. Product quality usually identifies the tangible artifacts or

the processes of the deliverables. This could be food, education, maternity care, or

anything that people could need. Process quality refers to the quality of the actual

administration of the project itself. There are five levels of process maturity defined in

project management ranging from Ad Hoc (level one) to Continuous Improvement (level

five). The quality of the process may either assure or jeopardize the quality of the

product. The client’s interest is in the product. The process will be the concern of the

managers. Quality will be constrained by time and costs. The quality of the process

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should be developed with the managers and adapted to the constraints of the project.

Quality ambiguity is a common cause of failure.

Annex 4

6. Resources: The assets or resources must match the complexity, quality and the

expected schedule of the project. Resources span five categories: people, facilities,

equipment, money, and materials. These may include computer software, machinery,

laboratories, real estate, or people with specific skills. Human resources is an area in

itself. “Going cheap” on human resources is a common source of project failure.

Lawsuits often paralyze projects due to poorly drafted contracts by inept attorneys.

Very specific expertise may be required. The human resource should be commensurate

with the complexity of the project. Often a project support office is needed with a staff

exclusively dedicated to supporting the administration of the project. One individual

executive project manager must be ultimately responsible for the project. If a

committee is put in charge of projects, the pass-the-buck syndrome can quickly lead to

paralysis and failure. Unless the committee members hire one individual, professional

project manager responsible to see the project through to the last deliverable they are

courting disaster.

7. Communications: The Standish Group lists poor communications are the main reasons

projects fail (Standish Group CHAOS 2012). These communications include a lack of user

input, incomplete and changing requirements and a lack of executive support.

8. Risk: As much as possible risk management should foresee anything that could go

wrong, estimate the probability of its occurrence, calculate the impact and have a

planned strategy for mitigation. Risks can include natural disasters, lawsuits, theft,

accidents, injuries, equipment malfunction, corruption, government instability,

incompetent professional services and anything that would interfere with the project.

Risk management is an extensive field and a cornerstone for the success of any project

involving complexity or challenging contexts. In The Last Frontier James Anderson

explains how some international companies have developed new ways to succeed in

difficult environments (Anderson, J. 2012). Mechanisms to preserve the project’s

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continuance down to the last deliverable in the worst-case scenarios must be well

developed. Annex 7

9. Procurement: All projects must obtain hardware, software and services from outside

sources. The ideal is getting the right materials for the best price. Evaluating materials

and vendors may involve standards, bidding, references, and requests for proposals.

Prioritize Good Management:

Management over Money

Additional money without proper management may worsen the problems. The UN and

its many organizations provide graphic examples of project management distress and failure.

The Wall Street Journal reported that in 2008 the UN published a document proclaiming their

“standards of excellence for public administration” (WSJ February 9, 2011). Also in same year

(2008) the UN launched the Umoja (Swahili for unity) software project budgeted at $285.6

million according to PricewaterhouseCoopers. Now the budget has been increased by 20%, to

$ 348.2 million and the closing is set for 2018. Ban Ki Moon recently announced that the

current management team will be replaced in 2015, three years before the scheduled closing. Is

he implementing a human resource management strategy of excellence? Or has he lame-

ducked a management team that cannot be fired for three years? With hundreds of millions of

dollars at stake their management models should be scrutinized. UN reports suggest that the

budget, the schedule, and the scope of this project are spinning out of control, a classic case of

the “creeps.”

George Russell of Fox News reports that “The administration is also unable to

demonstrate whether the project is under or over budget because it cannot determine what

should have been achieved in return for the $123 million it has so far spent.” (Board of Auditors

20 July, 2012) (February 11, 2013) The U.N. budget advisory committee reported that Ban’s

administration “did not have systems in place that could link the budget to milestones and

deliverables.” Linking budgetary milestones with deliverables is at the heart of a process quality

system. And when the deliverables start falling out of sync with milestones the project could go

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off the ‘critical path’. In complex projects scores of processes have to move forward in sync.

Many processes have predecessors; one depends on another. In a well-designed and managed

project contingency solutions should kick in automatically when a project slips off the critical

path. There are alternative strategies designed to cope with resource conflicts such as the

‘critical chain approach’. All projects have to cope with both common cause and special cause

variations. These management issues are always present and effective responses need to be

built into the project management model.

What are the three main project management models?

1. Traditional Project Management (TPM)

TPM, the first project management model began in the 1950s. It involves the five basic

process groups, scoping, planning, launching, monitoring, controlling, and closing. It is linear,

non-learning, and often sufficient in predictable environments unaffected by outside factors. It

may be useful for repetitive tasks or projects that are simply being replicated in nearly identical

circumstances. For these types of projects it is useful to build a template library for every part

of the project for the next replication. These would include requests for proposals, work

breakdown structures, risk mitigation plans, vendor selection strategies, and so on. For

organizations doing repetitive projects building and refining these templates may be the best

way forward. But forcing the TPM model on projects where it is not appropriate can spell

disaster.

Traditional Project Management

Linear

Incremental

Scope Plan Launch Monitor &

Control

Close

Project

Next Increment

Close

Increment

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Increments are also infelicitously called “crippled solutions” (Wysocki p355). They are usable,

partial solutions that can be put to work before the full project is completed. For example in the

case of the malaria prevention project it could be the distribution of some mosquito nets

before the training module is ready for implementation. They do deliver a portion of value on

their own.

2. Agile Project Management

describes Agile Project Management as the “new kid on the block”. (2011) A few excerpts from

the “Agile Manifesto” published by Fowler and Highsmith put it succinctly (Fowler, M.

Highsmith, J. 2001).

Individuals and interactions over processes and tools.

Working software over comprehensive documentation.

Customer collaboration over contract negotiations.

Responding to change over following a plan.

There is value in the items on the right (but) we value the items on the left more.

Wysocki suggests that 70% of projects should use agile project management but do not.

Evidence suggests that the high failure rate of projects (25%) is partially due to “force fitting”

the traditional approach where it is not appropriate (Wysocki 2011) . The key question to ask

when making this choice is how much do we know about the problem we are addressing?

When a substantial part is not known, one of the agile models should be preferred.

There are two types of agile project management, iterative and adaptive. Iterative is

appropriate for projects where the solution to the problem being addressed has already been

largely solved, yet there are numerous uncertainties expected. The adaptive agile project

Scope Plan Launch

Increment

Monitor &

Control

Increment

Close

Project

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management model is appropriate when the solution to the problem being addressed is still

mostly unknown. Learning and discovery form the core the adaptive models.

Iterative model

In the first iteration the functionality may be known but how to get there may not be fully clear. Wysocki

likens the process to several swim lanes each one developing different functionalities or parts of the

solution as they go. For example take the land for a housing project in Haiti for earthquake victims.

Obtaining ownership of suitable land could be one iteration. Surveying and subdividing the land could be

another. Creating and registering individualized real estate title deeds, which would allow transfer of

ownership, could be another.

Adaptive model

(Yumasoft 2011)

There are four types of adaptive agile project management models. Three are applied mainly to

software development so I will cover only one, the Adaptive Project Framework (APF) which

may apply to any project, software or otherwise. “Cycles” are used in place of “iterations”

because what is being launched may be entirely different from the previous one. The only

Scope Plan

Iteration

Launch

Iteration

Monitor &

Control Iteration Next

Iteration

Close

Project

Scope Plan Cycle Launch

Cycle Monitor &

Control Cycle

Next

Cycle

Close

Project Close

Cycle

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constant is the desired end result. How to get there may be completely unknown. Each cycle

learns from the previous one, which may then reveal the methods or materials that need to be

completely discarded. The key to the adaptive model is the expectation and the embracing of

change. Continuous questioning, introspection and applied learning are assumed givens at

every stage.

3. Extreme model

Extreme project management is ideal for research and development projects where uncertainty

and complexity are high. It is a search for completely undiscovered goals and solutions. Often

the learning itself is considered valuable enough to proceed. The world is full of wicked

political, social, medical and administrative problems which merit investigative projects where

everything else has failed. The term “wicked problem” first coined by C. West Churchman in the

1960s has become accepted when referring to complex social, political, or economic issues

which seem unsolvable (Churchman, C.W. 1967). War-torn regions in Africa or the Middle East,

the HIV pandemic and the Eurozone’s current fiscal crisis are wicked problems. The extreme

project management model has been widely applied in all these cases, often with notable

success.

In the search for an HIV drug researcher Dr. Broder describes a project using the

extreme model: “We were open to virtually any drug to treat this lethal and terrifying disease.

This applied regardless of a prior intended use---provided that a candidate agent could

effectively suppress HIV-1 replication & cytopathic effect at doses that were not toxic to normal

host cells. We followed these principles in the newly established antiretroviral drug discovery

program in my laboratory (one of the very few in the world with the technical proficiency and

willingness to do so at that time).” (Broder 2009)

Scope

Phase

Plan

Phase

Launch

Phase Monitor &

Control

Next

Phase

Close

Project Close

Phase

19

The extreme model is being applied in hundreds of projects in Afghanistan in hopes of

building peaceful civil-society organizations, and an administration that the US can work with.

(USAID 2011) The goal is a desired end state but we do not yet know what it looks like. We

want social, political, or business value. We may have several hunches we want to work with.

We learn as we go through trial and error accumulating knowledge that contributes to the

eventual solution. The main difference is the scope process. In the adaptive model it is done

once at the beginning. In the extreme model it is adjusted as needed at every phase. Usually

phases of one to four weeks are iterated until solutions start to take shape. The client providing

the funding must stay intimately involved with the process. Continued funding is usually linked

to the client observing progress.

Emertxe Model (extreme spelled backwards)

The magnitude of funding and the millions of organizations in the world of aid would

suggest a commensurate level of organizational learning. For-profit companies such as Ford or

Corning have teetered on the brink of bankruptcy, but then learn, and make comebacks. New

York’s previously struggling Corning Glass is now prospering with its “gorilla glass” (alkali-

aluminosilicate). Gorilla glass is an example of “emertxe project management”. It was an

accidental byproduct of something called “Project Muscle” in the 1960s, which had limited

commercial value until the smartphones came along. (Techland, 2013)

Research and Development usually has a desired end in mind, which it then endeavors

to reach. This is the same thing in reverse. You have a solution, but you do not yet have the

application. The emertxe model is a variation of the extreme model. New solutions to the

countless wicked problems around the world may find solutions through the emertxe model.

PROBLEMS IN FOCUS:

What are the drivers of project failure?

1. Market forces sidelined

20

First, market forces, which may lead to corrective action, are often sealed out of aid

projects at key junctures through asymmetry of information. The lack of an informed public

awareness, a primary driver of political will, shields organizations from pressure to correct

problems. If a window were opened for the public to gain a concise, informed understanding of

the data representing the true picture of what is going on, public opinion pressure could be

created which could lead to clearly articulated calls for improvement. This can be built into the

aid project management model. Currently the structure of the aid industry does not generate

a clear picture capable of informing the public. The feedback loop is slow, inefficient and unable

to bridge the information gaps. Project failures often go unreported in the media. And the way

failures are reported does not realistically inform the public to the point where their votes

would cause politicians and charities to correct their errors and improve project delivery. A

spectacular failure may damage a public image, but no more than that. Politicians and charities

are aware of this. When information is available to the public it is rarely objective. It may be

either sensationalized by the media, or slanted with optimism by the aid agencies. Even the in-

depth and eyewitness accounts published in mainstream media offer little insight. Driven by a

sales agenda they tend to lapse into “aid pornography”; graphic images and narratives of

severe human suffering. While on a WFP assignment in Sudan SU professor Masood Hyder

contacted international media agencies hoping to get coverage of the food crisis there. A

journalist asked “Will we see ribs?” (people emaciated through hunger) (Humanitarian Action

class notes March 2011). When said no, the journalist lost interest. The lack of “ribs” bore little

relevance to the reality of the dangerous food crisis that was taking place. This illustrates a

market failure in commercial media. Media driven by market forces alone leads to damaging

distortions and omissions. But informed, documentary-style reporting mandated in a project’s

design could help bridge the information asymmetry gaps between all the links in the delivery

chain from the front-line field workers all the way back to the tax-paying public. Opening a

window for the media to scrutinize private contractors, NGOs, government agencies, banks,

individual aid workers and the recipients or end-users of the project could be transformative.

Project management can help with standardized milestone reports developed in conjunction

with the key stakeholders. Reliable reporting driven by a balanced inclusion of the various

21

interests of the different stakeholders would bring a clearer picture into focus. Humiliating the

victims of disasters through media exposure could be avoided. These info-documentary reports

could help the public to make informed decisions at the voting booth and with their

checkbooks. This collaborative effort could open a window for market forces to drive the aid

industry to create and deliver better products. Exact points of failure and could be meaningfully

exposed to the public. Those who succeed, and get those earthquake victims they addressed all

the way through to housing with working plumbing, electricity and clear property titles could

make legitimate headlines. An automatic press conference triggered by the last deliverable

could be built into the contract. The same embedded news agency would release an

embarrassing exposé in the case of non-delivery. In both cases the funding should flow

accordingly. The system could be like the reporters embedded with troops in a war zone.

Evidence Aid, Charity Navigator, Disaster Accountability.org, or Givewell.org. which scrutinize

NGOs and relief work already have already developed many potentially useful tools whose

evaluations could be included. Superficial sensationalized reporting could be replaced with

multi-sourced, fact-based reports linked with the deliverables defined in the contract.

Embedding this third-party reporting component in the project management design would

correct the asymmetry of information.

2. Principle-agent problem

Second there is widespread principle-agent problem between aid organizations and the

contractors they hire. This is partially driven by information asymmetry as well. Local

contractors chosen in developing-country fields often lack the incentive to deliver quality work

since they do not expect future contracts. One-time disaster relief projects stop investing after

the closure date. Contractors able to demonstrate their historic success rates through the

capability maturity model may be scarce. (Wysocki 2012) In complex environments with

multiple contractors the pass-the-buck syndrome opens windows for payment collection

despite non-delivery or abandonment. The wide range of causes includes corruption, contexts

presenting unknown conditions, political pressure on donors, and gaps in abilities to partner

well with local populations. The principle-agent problem may be successfully addressed

22

through capability maturity modeling. This involves vendors building a profile of their

capabilities proven through documentation of their processes on previous contracts.

3. Inappropriate Project Management Model

Third an inappropriate, or ill-designed project management model is applied to a project

leading to distress or failure. Many projects are launched ad hoc, with little consideration given

to the management model. The three main project management models are traditional, agile,

and extreme. The extreme model is appropriate for many wicked (complex, persistent,

unsolvable) problems (Camillus, John C. 2008). When addressing any problem through an aid

project the correct model should be chosen and specifically designed to fit the problem and its

context. By choosing and adapting the project management model the prospect of success

improves.

4. Incompetent Project Manager

Fourth, the project manager may mismanage the project leading to failure. Many

projects fail due to a manager with little experience or training. Licenses issued by the Project

Management Institute (PMI) should be required for project managers. Usually they are not.

Project Management is a broad field with specializations and sub-specializations including a

special license for development projects. Besides certification a project manager should have a

track record of successfully delivered projects. James Rick’s criticism is valid (John Hailey, and

Rick James, 2004). The staffing of key positions in a project should be based on a skills inventory

and the person’s track record. A Human Resource Management System should build

professional profiles when choosing a person to lead a project. Charisma is a valuable asset, and

can be found on the market when required. These adjustments would fall into the second and

third categories of micro and meso issues.

5. Poor commitment to completion

There must be executive level commitment to get projects through to completion. The

political will, which drove the creation of a project, should be completely decoupled from the

23

management of the project. This can be imbedded in the design and management of the

project. As Haiti Reconstruction Fund manager Josef Leitmann stated “No one wanted to do

debris removal,” “It is not sexy. There are no ribbons to cut.” (New York Times, December 2012)

But it should not matter. Once a project is decided upon and funded all that should matter is

the successful completion of the deliverables. The excessive influence of photo opportunities in

a project may be removed in the design stage. Politicians normally lose interest in a project

after photo shoots. Implementing agencies should be constrained from losing interest by a

properly designed, binding contracts, which make non-delivery without severe consequences

for those responsible nearly impossible.

6. Poor organizational learning

When an agency fails to deliver a project, pressure to take corrective action may be lost

in complex web of the public opinion, government agencies, advocacy groups, and the media.

The feedback loops are weak and often paralyzed. The Clinton Foundation is silent on the

failure of their multi-million dollar housing project in Haiti. Jane Regan of the Huffington Post

reports that the project was abandoned before plumbing and electricity were installed (Regan,

J., 2012). Motivation to examine, learn from and report on failure is not strong. Howard White,

executive director of International Initiative for Impact Evaluation (3ie) says “… we would like to

understand more about the causal chain to help inform analysis and understand why programs

work in some places and not others.” He goes on to say “there is a fear that when people see

negative results, they will stop funding and pull out of research altogether” (White, 2013).

Often the world never finds out what the final outcomes are. And if it does, blaming the context

or the network of the other agencies involved is credible, which legitimizes the expectation of

failure as part of the system.

7. Poor Understanding of the context, the problem, and the solution.

Working in cultures, which are extremely different from those of the donors or implementing

agencies, may lead to misunderstandings which result in failure. Societies where power is

exercised by individuals rather than institutions, where the limit between legitimate fees and

24

bribes is not clear, and areas of armed conflict challenge project implementation. Some wicked

problems such as controlling the HIV pandemic in the developing world are still not fully

understood. Failure in these cases may be part of a valuable learning process if lessons are

documented and shared. Still many failures are based on these gaps in understanding.

RECOMMENDATIONS:

SOLUTIONS THROUGH PROJECT MANAGEMENT:

Preventing and correcting project failure:

SOLUTION #1

Apply Reference Class Forecasting to Estimations

All projects involve forecasting or estimation along the five project constraints. In 2002

Brent Fryvberg won the Nobel Prize in Economics for developing a project management

technique called Reference Class Forecasting. (Flyvbjerg, Brent 2006, pp. 5-15) He applied it to

estimate how the expected constraints in a project translate into risks. He observed that the

very high levels of inaccuracy in estimates in the project management industry remained static

for over thirty years. This applies to all types of estimates such as costs, completion time

(schedule), highway traffic rates, rail passenger flows, and every relevant detail to the planning

of a project. He also demonstrated that higher levels of qualification of the experts making the

forecasts had no bearing on the rates of accuracy. Two types of optimism bias caused the

inaccuracy, psychological and political. Psychological bias is unintentional and driven by

emotions. Political bias is intentional and is driven by strategy. He also demonstrated that these

inaccuracies were systematic and predictable. Reference class forecasting eliminates this bias. It

is a simple technique based on outside referencing, or data drawn from analogous projects. It

has currently proven to be the most accurate form of forecasting in the world of project

management and may provide a key to the success of aid projects in difficult contexts. In any

project when doing the required estimations a third-party agency should be hired to do

reference class forecasting. Data is gathered from similar projects implemented only by other

organizations as the basis for all estimations.

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Annex 3

Solution # 2 Choose the appropriate project management models:

No model at all is “ad hoc” management, the most risk prone and not advisable.

1. Traditional Project Management Model: Problem and solution are well understood; the

solution is a replication of a previous, successful project.

2. Agile Project Management Model: The problem is well understood but the solution is

not well understood.

3. Extreme Project Management Model: Neither the problem nor its solution are well

understood.

4. Emertxe Project Management Model: A solution is found but its application is not yet

understood.

Solution # 3

Apply the basic steps of Project Management

1. The five process groups: scoping, planning, launching, monitoring, and closing.

2. The nine knowledge areas: integration, scope, time, cost, quality, HR, communications,

risk, procurement.

3. The project management life cycle models.

4. Robust risk mitigation strategies.

5. Higher levels of processes

Solution # 4

Use the Modular Project Management Team Approach for Wicked Problems in Difficult

Contexts

Novo Nordisk developed the use of autonomous, multi-disciplinary teams, which succeeded at

accomplishing what had never been done before. The same modular team approach may

26

succeed at implementing complex projects in difficult contexts where projects have usually

failed.

Solution # 5

Embed a media reporting component in the project design

Similar to reporters embedding with troops at war, aid projects should invite media scrutiny. In

the pre- implementation stage the aid agency should map out with the media points where

reporting would be meaningful to both parties. The aid agency and the media could collaborate

to create reporting based on a deeper understanding of the project. The reporting could be

timed to cover key events of delivery and completion.

Solution # 6

Apply the lessons from The Last Frontier for difficult contexts (Anderson, James, 2012)

New methods have been successfully developed to work in zones of extreme difficulty through

extreme project management. As the learning is documented and tested in different contexts,

aid agencies should appropriate the lessons and methods where projects a history of failure.

Solution # 7

Document project failure, distress, and lessons learned

Outside of the Word Bank there is little evidence of documentation of project failure and

distress. Individual companies investing their own money have documented their failures, their

trial and error and eventual success. Religious organizations have done this as well. The aid

industry should embrace this practice and make the lessons available to the public.

Correct project model:

Apply the Agile and Extreme Project Management Models where appropriate

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The project design should be based on whatever current research there is. A causal

problem-solution link established through internal and external validity is ideal. But many

problems, solutions, and contexts are not yet understood. In such cases the extreme-agile

project management model should be used. With this model acquiring knowledge is as

important as solving the problem. Carol A. Baume states that the distribution of insecticide

treated mosquito netting has reduced malaria infection rates in Africa, Latin America, and Asia.

(Baume, Carol A. 2009) But later researchers discovered that selling the nets rather than giving

them away increases their likelihood of usage. Including a training component further increases

usage. Later it was discovered that the including simple tools further increased effectiveness.

Later researchers found villagers not using the nets even after training. Methods of identifying

and recruiting the support of local leadership were developed. Indigenous culture and folk

traditions may have to be engaged with to maximize implementation (Center for Disease

Control 2012) (Nothing but Nets 2012). Integrating and reintegrating new learning as it breaks

through is the essence of the agile and extreme models.

Jamie L. Anderson in The Last Frontier studied for-profit companies that routinely work

in conflict zones, urban slums, and deep rural of Africa (Anderson, James 2012). These include

the poorest slums of India, and areas of armed conflict; Nigeria’s Niger Delta, and Iraq. These

are areas where legal frameworks, infrastructure, and skilled workers either do not exist or are

scarce. Organizations have learned that bringing in these people and services has severe

limitations, so they have developed key adaptations through enquiry, analysis, and testing.

Anderson states “As process research, the study focused on understanding the causal

dynamics of particular settings with an assumption that “causation is neither linear nor

singular.”10 We aimed to articulate best practices as companies deal with the challenges of

serving customers in conflict zones, urban slums, and the deep rural areas of developing

markets and in many respects explored strategies that were still evolving.” (Anderson, J. 2012)

This is an ongoing process, which may not show tangible results in the first years but

progressively builds a platform to work from. Its key components include community buy-in,

reaching out to unorthodox partners, and thinking far out of the box. In Iraq hiring expensive

28

security firms and bringing in foreign engineers was not working. The tide turned after the

company painstakingly nurtured respectful relationships with local militias, invested in the local

football league, and sent Iraqi engineers abroad for short, intensive training. In rural Nigeria

armed groups were using cranes to steal Celtel’s (telecom) big diesel electric generators from

remote regions where they were trying to introduce cellphone coverage. A solution was found

through reaching out to village tribal chiefs. Chiefs became for-profit franchise operators of

small low-cost, village-based generators. In this region where incomes are less than $ 2.00 a

day, inexpensive user-friendly phone cards were introduced through village leaders. The same

strategy worked in no-go parts of India and Afghanistan. This grass-roots trial-and-error

research was thoroughly documented and studied through statistical models bringing

successful context-specific implementation strategies into focus. Not-for-profit projects need

the same degree of depth and rigor to succeed in high-risk contexts that are often focal points

of aid work.

Major NGOs such as Oxfam and the Red Cross do research, publish papers and apply

learning as it evolves. Aid agencies need to embrace new learning as unexpected situations

unfold. The Red Cross came close to suing the Colombian military for using their logo as a

disguise during a hostage rescue operation. The credibility of their neutrality in conflict zones is

one of their most valuable assets (Egeland, Jan 2011). Unforeseen problems are common in aid

work. Fifty-four aid workers were killed in 2012 many of them from the Red Cross. This tragedy

indicates that more learning is needed, and that the use of the agile project model is the most

appropriate (The Aid Worker Security Database (AWSD) 2013).

Intervention when the project slips into distress:

The best way to handle a distressed project is with the risk mitigation strategies

designed before the project was implemented. The possible circumstances that could produce

distress and ways it could be mitigated need to be thoroughly and realistically mapped out

drawing on historic data if possible. If data is limited, any credible source of information should

be considered. A metrics-driven risk management matrix should be created which includes

29

clearly defined contingencies which are triggered when things do go wrong. In many cases

templates may be developed to identify the maturity levels in each of the process groups. In

many cases minor adjustments may be enough.

When a project does slip off the critical path stop and re-evaluate. Some distress is

normal in a project, but when things are getting out of control it may be necessary to stop and

assess alternatives. There are four basic questions to ask: Where are we? Where can we go?

How can we get there? How will we get there? The worst case is to ignore the problem and

proceed business as usual until things spin out of control. Often revising the project’s goals,

realistically evaluating the options, and generating a revised plan is required.

Recommendations: Bringing it all together

In summary I am proposing the following measures to avoid stress in projects and to increase

their likelihood of success:

1. Design the project correctly.

2. Choose the correct project management model, traditional, agile or extreme.

3. Apply project management administrative standards at every stage.

4. Apply the lessons learned by for-profit organizations in contexts presenting extreme

challenges.

5. Use modular project execution teams for extreme challenges. (Novo Nordisk)

6. Access, build, and use documented lessons in extreme environments.

7. Embed a media-reporting component in the project.

STEP-BY-STEP APPLICATION:

Start the first steps right

Conditions of Satisfaction

Doing The Conditions of Satisfaction or COS right is the first step in a successful project. The

COS is meeting with the client (also called requestor) and the provider, or project manager. The

30

challenge for the project manager is distilling what the client wants into something clear that

both of them can understand. There are four components:

1. Request

2. Clarification

3. Response

4. Agreement

The COS meeting may last from one to several days. It should produce a single-page document,

not including attachments called the Project Overview Statement (POS) signed by both parties.

It clearly and unambiguously defines the criteria by which the project will be considered

completed and may be closed. The criteria may be called objectives, project outcomes, or

performance indicators; in all cases it is the same thing. The COS should also produce the first

draft of the Requirements Breakdown Structure (RBS). This document will add to the Project

Overview Statement as the scope is further clarified.

Project Scoping Meeting

Scope the project correctly. At the Project Scoping Meeting the significant stakeholders should

be represented. These should include:

1. The client or executive level representatives of the client. This could be government

ministry officials, professionals or authorities that have advocated for the project, or

donors.

2. The project manager and his first line of professionals or executives.

3. Project Meeting Facilitators. This group of individuals may lead the meetings by project

segments depending on the complexity. They must have thorough technical knowledge

of the project requirements. Wysocki identifies a person he calls the “technographer”

who understands the technology involved in the project, and can record everything that

is discussed and decided in these meetings. Several technographers may be needed for

different aspects of the project.

31

The Meeting Itself

Although it is commonly expected that the project manager facilitate this meeting, it is not

always the best idea. Meeting facilitation is a unique skill in itself and the project manager may

prefer to delegate this task to a trusted team member with the interpersonal, communication

skills needed to fully engage the stakeholders and broker full agreement, commitment, and

understanding.

Annex 1

Requirements decomposition

The Requirements Breakdown Structure details exactly how each requirement will be

met. It is usually starts as a draft and subsequently develops in more detail. Wysocki suggests

starting with the requirements only and deciding on how they will be met after the POS has

been approved.

Requirements are usually broken down into the following levels:

Requirements

Functions

Sub-functions

Processes

Activities

Features

The next step is known as Requirements Gathering. This is a very major endeavor since it

involves finding out the best way to create what the client wants. This may involve accessing a

wide range of resources and information. Nonetheless when it is done well it allow you to

create a solid Requirements Breakdown Structure (RBS), which will greatly facilitate the

subsequent Work Breakdown Structure (WSB). Both of these will facilitate client engagement

32

and successful completion of the project. It also focuses the project on producing deliverables.

The project manager decides on the methods used for requirements gathering often using a

combination of methods.

Annex 2

Sample Application:

Sample process for an earthquake victim (constituent) being resettled

Suitable land identified

Land is purchased, ownership it transferred and registered

Land is surveyed and subdivided into plots

Individualized title deeds are created and enrolled in real-estate registry

Water and sewage grid is laid

Electric grid and public lighting is set up

Access roads are built

Constituent selected – matched with house – property deed signed – ownership transferred

Annex 3

Use Modular Management Teams for Difficult Projects and Contexts

Applying the Novo Nordisk Engineering extreme modular management approach may

provide some answers. NNE had the commission to expand the producing capacity for a

pharmaceutical company for a new drug as quickly as possible. It was a new cutting edge drug

which would generate over $ 1 M per day in profits once on the market. The window for these

high margins is very short. After a year the market alternatives appear and margins fall quickly.

The field of building pharmaceutical production facilities faces formidable challenges. It is

extremely regulated. For safety reasons quality has to be superlative. To meet this challenge

NNE developed a groundbreaking management model that delivered astoundingly.

33

The overall project was broken down into modules. Teams were formed to work on

modules autonomously. The teams were cross-functional drawing on the best and the

brightest. Each team had a human resources member who acted as a coach to constantly

improve communications, internal feedback and learning. A full week of team building

exercises was held before the work started. One activity involved being dumped in a remote

part of northern Sweden in the winter at night, miles from civilization. Each team developed its

own personality. The teams functioned holistically and had full authority to make decisions.

Conflicts were resolved behind closed doors. It got to the point where if one team member

spoke, it represented the voice of the entire group. Since the team members came from a

cross-section of disciplines, the trust help resolve conflicts between different sectors quickly.

In the case of this project the challenges were achieving high speed and high quality. In

the case of the housing in Haiti project, the challenges would be the survival of functioning

relationships with local authorities and suppliers needed for the continuance of the project, the

carrying out of the work until the closing, and turning over the deliverables to full specification

on schedule. Forming teams of experts who know how to build rapport with powerful Haitians,

and get the services and materials fully delivered on time would be the priority. These members

would be more valuable than mere engineers and technicians who know how to build houses.

There is little evidence that this has ever happened in Haiti. Foremen and craftsmen who speak

the local language and can get commitment and discretionary effort out of the local workers

would also be indispensable.

Aid projects in Haiti post-earthquake provide a showcase for failure. Washington DC

based development agency Chemonics was awarded $ 150 M in contracts from USAID. Global

Post 2012) .Independent auditors found that the projects they undertook failed in almost every

case. In 2010 former President Clinton opened a project called the "Housing Exposition" in

Zoranje just outside Port au Prince. They were built by RCI systems from Colorado US. $ 1.2 M

of gravel was used to lay a gravel bed. Haitian President Martelly called the project a “new

beginning” in 2011. The Interim Haitian Reconstruction Commission (IHRC) approved the

project. Architects from Harvard and MIT contributed. Funds came in from the Clinton

34

Foundation and the IDB. Deutche Bank and several US contractors contributed. Today these

projects lie abandoned, vandalized and unoccupied. Haiti Grassroots Watch (HGW) reports

having tried unsuccessfully to contact the companies involved in delivering the final key

infrastructure. Water, electricity and plumbing were never completed, and the houses are

unusable. The body of evidence indicates that most organizations, regardless of the largesse of

their funding, do not know how to see projects through to completion in this environment. The

Haitian government in 2012 disbanded even the much-lauded Interim Haiti Reconstruction

Commission, which brought billions of dollars to the table.

Implementing a housing project in Haiti has many commonalities with the high-tech,

sterile, projects of pharmaceutical laboratories. The challenges of both are impossibly difficult.

It is just a different set of challenges. In the Haiti case it is mostly about building and

maintaining a working rapport, and achieving cooperation and compliance from all levels

government and suppliers. These were officials responsible for the registry of land titles, the

permits and licenses to get things done, the security and protection for staff, the most

importantly the money. Each autonomous PMT could address different types of officials or

individual authorities. Teams could brainstorm daily about new ways to get needed

cooperation. They might explore under-the-table pressure through contacts in international

banks certain officials deal with. They might explore participating in local festivals, sporting

events, or help with a son’s application to a US university.

The Haiti Cholera Outbreak

For the first time in a century there was cholera outbreak in Haiti 10 months after the UN

relief intervention. The Haiti earthquake represented a “complex emergency”. The situation

required massive and immediate supply of:

Food

Water

Sanitation

Security

35

Housing

Hospitalization and emergency treatment

Primary health care

Civil administration

Power

These services had collapsed for an already impoverished city of 1 M people. Massive numbers

of people injured and left homeless by the quake needed immediate help. The ensuing

confusion and difficulties of working in such a challenging environment is to be expected. But

nearly a year later a lot more could have been sorted out. The Nepalese MINUSTAH had been in

place years before the quake. A poorly designed sewage system in their camp leaked into the

Meille River likely started the outbreak. The collapse of services led to people drinking river

water that got the cholera going.

Some agencies addressing health did apply the agile-adaptive project management

model. What was known about cholera prevention was water purification, hand washing, and

simple prevention instructions. Packages of purification tablets, soap and printed instructions

were prepared. The sudden and unexpectedly large scale of the infection rate required health-

providing agencies to drastically increase their scope. Many unknowns began to appear. Oxfam

reported that money was available but suitable personnel were not. (Oxfam 2010) As

distribution began, organizations realized that most of the population at risk was illiterate. Also

most of them did not speak French, but only patois, a local language. The printed instructions

were not working. Local Haitians had to be quickly hired, trained, and sent out to announce the

instructions through bullhorns at distribution points. Bicycles were added to expand the area of

coverage. This is an example where the feedback loop can change the cycle as learning is

garnered and applied during implementation. The agile adaptive model fit perfectly. The linear

non-adaptive traditional model led to complete stoppages in some of the bigger projects.

Quality

Adjust Project Management Design

36

“Do no harm” is one of the foundation beliefs of the UN (UNORG 2012). Small,

seemingly insignificant errors in projects can have far reaching consequences. Cholera, an easy

to prevent and treat disease infected 640,000 and killed 8,000 people (Center for Disease

Control, 2011). A simple, avoidable flaw in the sewage system at the Nepalese peacekeepers’

camp got the problem started. This is a quality control error. International standards regarding

safeguard for sewage disposal systems close to bodies of public water like the Meille River are

clearly established. Despite the millions of dollars of funding behind UN Peacekeeping

operations, the standards simply were not followed. The Center for Disease Control and

Prevention reported “Spatiotemporal analyses highlighted 5 significant clusters (p<0.001): 1

near Mirebalais (October 16–19) next to a United Nations camp with deficient sanitation.”

(CDC, 2011) Flaws that cost thousands of lives cannot be considered small. In retrospect the

corrective action needed the have avoided the problem was small which highlights the need for

a robust quality management system.

Solution # 7 Risk Mitigation Strategy

The recommendations in Bent Flyvbjerg’s article “Getting Risks Right” (2006) was not

well applied in the cholera case in Haiti. The susceptibility of the earthquake victims to an

epidemic of a common disease was severely underestimated. Reference class forecasting would

have revealed that massive numbers of people living in crowded conditions and without basic

services are historically inclined to be unusually susceptible to communicable disease. Knowing

that public health services were overwhelmed, peacekeepers should have followed higher

sanitary standards. Aid agencies should have expected and prepared for disease outbreaks.

In January 2013 Oxfam declared that now, three years after the earthquake hundreds of

thousands of people are still living in tarps without access to basic services. These numbers

represent progress since they stood at 1.5 M in 2010. Hundreds of relief agencies are still

working there. Many of the bottlenecks and failures to properly deliver aid in Haiti are like the

sewage leak in the peacekeepers camp, faulty project management.

37

Aid agencies are currently struggling to find successful formulas for implementing

projects in environments of endemic corruption. Based on the probability of occurrence it

cannot be considered a risk, because its occurrence is certain. But based on our knowledge of

what to do about it makes it a risk. We do not know what to do. Haiti is an example. The

political context is reasonably stable and somewhat favorable, but corruption is a given. Every

branch of government from the highest levels on down to the end of the administrative chain

has a proven history of blatant, unremitting corruption. Officials unabashedly demand bribes

and the general public acquiesces. Does this make the context an untouchable for an aid

project? No. But it does mean that robust contingencies and adaptive solutions must be built

into the project’s risk mitigation strategy. An investigation into the history of corruption in this

context should reveal its prevalent patterns and how they have affected previous projects.

What strategies (if any) worked in those cases? The context of corruption is the rule rather than

the exception in various parts of the world including Afghanistan and many parts of Africa. The

US has invested billions in these places in search of formulas that might work. To be effective

those mechanisms may have to be based on culturally acceptable local practices. This is among

the most formidable challenges to aid projects. Ethical, legal, moral, and administrative

challenges converge to deal the knockout blow to even the most generously funded, publicly

supported, well-intended and professionally staffed projects. Still formidable challenges must

be met with equally formidable mitigation strategies. In these cases the extreme management

model with tight feedback loops and intense organizational learning may break new ground.

Conclusion:

The Aid Industry must vigorously embrace and apply the latest, ongoing developments and best

practices from the Project Management Industry to improve aid project success rates.

Successful breakthroughs in the for-profit world, such as those documented in The Last Frontier

should be sought out and applied by aid agencies (Anderson, J. L. 2010). The compelling needs

of millions of people who lack the basic elements of dignified survival, and the millions of

people willing to help them should be able to successfully interface to alleviate the suffering.

The ‘how’ should be subject to constant scrutiny and improvement. Aid agencies should

38

commit to serious organizational learning, and implement any structural changes that facilitate

the successful completion of project deliverables. Failures should be fully recognized,

documented, and used as learning opportunities. Lessons should documented, applied and

made public. Recognizing failure should not jeopardize funding, but rather be accepted by

donors, governments, constituents, and the general public as a necessary component of the

larger picture of successful aid delivery. The current practice of covering up the broken links in

the chain needs to be abandoned. Through greater transparency, and the application of project

management, successful aid delivery can dramatically increase, creating expanding virtuous

cycles benefiting the full range of stakeholders, especially those in the developing world.

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www.yumasoft.com -

Annexes

Annex 1

The meeting agenda: (Wysocki p. 111)

Introductions

Purpose of the meeting

Review of the COS

Description of the current state by client

Description of the problem by client

Description of the desired end-state by client

Requirements decomposition led by facilitator

Discussion of the gap between the desired end-state and the current state led by facilitator

Choice of the best project management model led my project manager

Draft and approve the POS, led by facilitator with input from everyone

Close meeting

Annex 2

Methods for Requirements When to use:

46

Gathering and Decomposition (Wysocki p. 116)

1 Facilitated group discussions For small projects one single group may be enough. For larger projects groups may be divided into sections.

2 Interviews Deeper insight from experiential and intuitive interpretations may be obtained.

3 Observation Useful when requirements are hard to describe or document.

4 Requirements reuse (previous similar projects)

Avoids wasted time on recreating what is already known. Takes advantage of “tried and proven” solutions.

5 Process diagraming Useful for cross-functional processes and visualizing sequences. Helps contrast “what is” with “what is not”.

6 Prototypes Good for pioneering never-tried-before solutions. Allows for creativity. Helps the client understand what he wants.

7 Use case scenarios Good for “what-if s” which may be needed in places where volatility makes factors affecting the project un predictable.

Annex 3

Choice of Project Management Model

Project Management

Model

When to Use

1 Linear For repetitive and routine projects the solution and the

requirements are defined, scope changes are not

expected.

2 Incremental Similar to linear but there might be some scope

changes; value can be delivered in increments.

3 Iterative The requirements may change, all the features of the

solution are not yet clear, there is the possibility to learn

as you go.

4 Adaptive The scope and the requirements may change and the

solution is not yet fully understood. A new product or

process is being developed. The schedule is tight.

5 Extreme The goal and the solution are not yet clear, although

47

some of the features are identified.

R & D project.

Project Quality Management Annex 4

Level: 1 2 3 4 5

Quality Planning

High-level plans, ad hoc

Metrics of reviews, tests

Quality milestones, checklists

Product environment included

Process critiqued during project

Quality Assurance

No established practices

Walkthroughs peer reviews

QA checklists standard

Walkthroughs with other project teams

Feedback on processes

Quality Control

No established practices

Guidelines for testing (unit, integration)

Standards for testing, client involvement

Performance standards in place

Decisions on usability and fit of product

Management Oversight

Management involvement limited

Mgt assigns PM, receives reports

Institution has standard PM practices

Integrated w/ corporate processes

Active role in management

Project Management Maturity Model,” Crawford, 2002 Project Time Management annex 5

Level: 1 2 3 4 5

Activity Definition

Few or no activities or milestones

Scope statement milestones

Process, assumptions, constraints

Activities regularly monitored

Continuously improve activity defin.

Activity Sequencing

Ad hoc sequencing

Process for precedence analysis

External dependencies

Dependencies regularly monitored

Improve dependency analysis

Schedule Development

No process for scheduling

Process for scheduling time & costs

Historical data base for scheduling

Resource utilization maximized

Improve networks, resource alloc

Schedule Control

No baseline control or reporting

Schedule status, chg. control

Change control earned value

Assess project efficiency

Schedule performance analysis

Schedule Integration

Ad hoc grouping for schedule

Manual grouping of schedules

Organization-wide schedules

Decisions across programs

Lessons learned for integration

Crawford, 2002 Project Integration Annex 6

48

Level: 1 2 3 4 5

Project Plan Development

Ad hoc Documented process

Risk, cost, schedule, HR, quality

Integrated w/ organization’s strategic plan

Improvement process in place

Project Plan Execution

Verbal direction

Summary level metrics

Detailed level metrics, templates

Variance & performance analysis

Lessons learned

Change Control

Ad hoc, without PM awareness

Only scope changes identified

Scope, cost, schedule identified

Integrated w/ control, & risk management

Changes are in efficiency metrics

Project Information System

None Simple PM information system

Standardized system for all projects

Automated system

Continuous improvement of data & sys.

Project Office Informal, no standards or training

Established, training available

PM methods, training mandatory

Best practice, PM training for all team

Cost-tracking support, EV, PMP training

Crawford, 2002 Project Scope Management Annex 7

Level: 1 2 3 4 5

Requirements Definition

Statement of purpose,

Process to identify requirements

Stakeholders involved in requirements

Functions fully documented

Incorporates quality improvement

Deliverable Identification

Names of deliverables

Customer & management identify deliv.

Detailed description of deliverable

Consistent template for all projects

Improvement in process

Scope Definition

Ad hoc, no standards

Defined scope statement

Assumptions & constraints clear

Documented & monitored

Project experience data used

WBS Basic work components

Third level template

Jointly identify all tasks

Inter-project dependencies documented

Regularly monitored

Scope Change Control

Ad hoc communication

Documented change process

Baselines established & managed

Integrated with organization’s systems

Lessons learned

Crawford, 2002

Risk Management Annex 7

Level: 1 2 3 4 5

49

Risk Identification

Risks not identified

Risk identification process

Standards for risk/symptom identification

Integrated w/ cost & time mgt, PMO

Identify org. priority, lessons learn

Risk Quantification

Speculate on impact if risks occur

Structured approach to rating risks

Multiple criteria prioritization

Integrated w/ cost & time mgt, finance

Improve quantification

Risk Response Development

Risks considered as they arise

Informal strategy for handling risks

Contingency plans

Integrated w/ cost & time mgmt., PMO

Tracking project reserves

Risk Control Day to day problem solving

Individualized approach to managing risk

Risks routinely tracked

Integrated with control systems

Risk assess included in project execution

Risk Documentation

No historical database

Some historical data

Historical data on common risks

Interdependent risks between projects

Improve collection activity

Crawford, 2002

Cost Management Annex 8

Level: 1 2 3 4 5

Resource Planning

Individuals identify resource req.

Resource listing defined

Project office resource repository

Integrated w/ project office and HR

Improve resource priorities

Cost Estimating

Scope statement, ad hoc estimates

Top WBS, cost-estimate template

Cost analysis of alternatives

Integrated w/ finance, acct, risk mgmt.

Improve forecasting vs. estimates

Cost Budgeting No established practice

Baseline process not standard

Time phased estimates, baselines

Integrated w/ finance, acct, risk mgmt.

Baseline lessons learned

Performance Management

Informal,

ad hoc

Summary level tracking

Earned value, corporate financials

Performance indices

Measure efficiency & effectiveness

Cost Control Non-standard tracking

Periodic cost reports

Variance analysis, est. to complete

Cost reports integrated w/ tech reports

Cost assessments, lessons learn

Crawford, 2002

Annex 9

From Nobel Prize to Project Management: Getting Risks Right Reference Class Forecasting, Bent Flyvbjerg

50

More specifically, reference class forecasting for a particular project requires the

following three steps:

1 Identification of a relevant reference class of past, similar projects. The class must be

broad enough to be statistically meaningful but narrow enough to be truly comparable

with the specific project.

2 Establishing a probability distribution for the selected reference class. This

requires access to credible, empirical data for a sufficient number of projects

within the reference class to make statistically meaningful conclusions.

3 Comparing the specific project with the reference class distribution, in order to

establish the most likely outcome for the specific project. Thus reference class

forecasting does not try to forecast the specific uncertain events that will affect the

particular project, but instead places the project in a statistical distribution of outcomes

from the class of reference projects. In statisticians vernacular, reference class

forecasting consists of regressing forecasters' best guess toward the average of the

reference class and expanding their estimate of credible interval toward the

corresponding interval for the class (Kahneman and Tversky 1979b: 326).

Project Management Journal, 37 (3). pp. 5-15, 2006

Annex 10

Inception Elaboration Construction Transition

1 Business Modeling

2 Requirements

3 Design and

Analysis

4 Implementation

5 Testing

6 Deployment

7 Change

Management

Iterations Iteration 1 Iteration 1 Iteration 1 Iteration 1

Annex 11

51

Development’s (OECD’s) Development Assistance Committee (DAC), representing the world’s leading providers of economic aid. France ranked second at $12.60 billion, Germany at $12.08 billion, and the United Kingdom at $11.49 billion. Japan, which has significantly scaled back its foreign aid program in recent years, gave $9.47 billion in 2009.

Figure 8. Official Development Assistance from Major Donors, 2009

(in millions, US$)

Source: OECD/

http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/157097.pdf Congressional Research Service Foreign Aid: An Introduction to U.S. Programs and Policy Curt Tarnoff Specialist in Foreign Affairs February 10, 2011

Annex 12

Probability: Low Medium High

Loss: Low Ignore Ignore Consider

Medium Ignore Consider Take action

High Consider Take action Take action

p. 82 Wysocki

52

Annex 13

10 reasons why projects fail:

1. Poor sponsorship: If the people at the top are not supportive this will severely hamper or even stop the project delivering. Clear job descriptions from an executive can often reduce the chances of this happening.

2. Unclear requirements:If phrases such as “easy to use”, “state of the art” or “best of

breed” have sneaked their way into the requirements, they will be virtually impossible to

prove. Project managers should view ambiguity as their worst enemy, and strive for

clarity.

3. Unrealistic timescales or budgets: Too often the customer/sponsor asks for the

impossible, but a project will take as long as it will take. As Henry Ford said – better,

faster, cheaper, pick one!

4. Scope creep: This describes the phenomenon where changes mount up to slowly push

the product away from its original design. Clear documentation and a robust change

control mechanism are vital if this is to be avoided.

5. Poor risk management: If you analyze the situation before proceeding you may be able

to identify potential problems and work around them before they even happen.

6. Poor processes/documentation: If you do not follow processes and document events

and requirements properly, do not be surprised if things do not happen the way you want

them to.

7. Poor estimating: Good project managers do not guess! Use historical information,

formulae, and lots of questions to make sure that your estimating is not GUESStimating.

8. Poor communication/stakeholder engagement: People tend to fear what they do not

know, so it is always the case that a bit of communication about what is going to happen

will go a long way. Communication with stakeholders is vital if the project is to capture

their imagination, and keep it.

9. Poor business case: A good business case will clearly demonstrate the business benefit

of delivering a project and so will allow the project team to sell the project to the

business, and constantly monitor whether the project continues to remain a good idea

during the project.

10. Inadequate/incorrectly skilled resources: Having people who are ill-prepared to

complete a task can be worse than not having anyone. To give yourself the best chance

53

of getting the resources, be clear about what you need and when you need it.

Dr. Ian Clarkson, http://pmstudent.com/top-ten-reasons-why-projects-fail/

Annex 14 Types of Requirements

1 Functional Requirements What the product or service must do.

2 Non-functional Requirements The properties the product or project must have in order to do what it does.

3 Global or General Requirements Describes the properties of the system as a whole.

4 Product /Project Restraints These are pre-existing constraints on how a product or project must look, or comply technologically. It includes the schedule and the budget.