“Where do you see ICT being in five

years’ time?”

A collaborative, reflective report

Introduction

In September 2009, I was asked to explain where I saw ICT in my school in five yearsʼ time. Since the rate of change in this area have been overwhelming in the last twelve months alone, I felt that I should get some ideas and guidance from a range of experts, and turned to my PLN, with the rallying cry:

Three weeks later, the document I opened up for contributions was viewed at least 200 times, and was contributed to my many people, not least those who are named on the ʻcontributorʼsʼ page at the end of the document.

I would like to thank all those who took the time out to spend five minutes (or more) reflecting from their professional and personal perspectives on indicating the moves, changes and improvements in educational ICT in the next five years. We can comfortably rest in the knowledge that will of course take five years to prove us all wrong!

Stephen LockyerOctober 2009

* Hoverboard Theory - Robots will serve us, on our holiday homes on the Moon etc.

A lot can change in five years.

• Harvard Medical School released their Whole Brain Atlas in 2005, so that doctors, students and medical staff the world over could get the inside track on one of the most complex areas of the human body.

• Twitter was launched as a side project in 2006 - it now has monthly growth of 1,382% per month (Source: Wikipedia)

• The Apple iPhone came out in 2007 - it has now sold over 20 million units, and raised the playing field in mobile technology.

• In 2008, the Large Hadron Collider was completed and successfully begun for the first time.

Our school sizes should not impede our vision. What will we release to the world that will be gratefully received? What side project will we launch which becomes a soaraway success? Which topic will we work on together that raises the playing field in education? What risks will we take in order to better our understanding of learning?

This is an open document of ideas, thoughts and suggestions for the future of ICT in Education. Please avoid Hoverboard Theory*, and stick to what is currently/potentially possible. So what will ICT be doing over the next 5 years?

2010

ICT in General

• (IS) Development of Multitouch Tablet devices by several Companies• (NA) Augmented reality apps increase, but don't offer a great deal• (NA) Google Wave experiments begin to show possibilities• (TK) Video (via online) becoming an increasingly fundamental 'literacy'• (JH) Smart phones (iphones etc) become more pervasive. • (GW) Decrease in number of netbook suppliers - continued drop in notebook prices

ICT in Education

• (IS) Generally technology will still be in the hands of teachers. The Teacher at the front• (IS) Continued development of access for learners to the technology that helps them

manage their own learning but very rare• (NA) New Gov't drops Rose Review and emphasises "subjects". ICT drops in

importance. Seriously curtails BSF (and ICT within)• (TK) Video (via online) becoming an increasingly fundamental 'literacy'• (JH) Demand more bandwidth within the classroom by teaching profession• (JH) More focus on education markets by mainstream ICT companies• (TK) Virtual world environments gain wider acceptance in education (e.g.the Canvas

Virtual Art Gallery for students in Scotland)• (TK) Online CPD becomes increasingly important, whilst conversely skills based ICT

'courses' become less relevant• (TK) Think we only need to follow what is happening on this doc. for confirmation that

changes are irreversible• (GW) Open access to school network - students bring in any device they wish to access

resources• (GW) Open Source software acknowledged use in qualifications• (GW) Increasing divide in digital literacy

2011

ICT in General

• (SL)Growth in ereaders, but stagnant market in education (fear of financial loss) - (NA) I'd put that in 2010

• (NA) Google Chrome OS shakes up netbook/MID market (or fizzles....)• (NA) Google Waves starts to challenge whole communications environment• (NA) Gesture control (Microsoft's Project Natal etc) takes off in gaming/consumer sector• (NA) more games being offered through the 'cloud' - ie. played locally, but actual action

streamed from remote server• (NA) Mobile networks creak under strain of data usage. Operators restrict certain types

of traffic• (DN) 4G Networks come in with restrictive pricing• (JH) Average users mobile phones become more media capable• (TK) Solid state starts to replace hard drives• (GW) Huge increase in RFID tagging leads to big issues in data privacy and protection• (GW) Increasing number of primary schools removing wireless

ICT in Education• (NA) Gov't drops VLE agenda, esp for primaries• (NA) Any device access becomes widespread. (eg. for personally owned mobiles,

netbooks etc.) But filtering policies unchanged :(• (NA) continued confusion reigns in handheld learning sphere as devices change and

projects on old tech wither• (JW) Lack of Digital Identity management creates crisis in education as more teachers

and learners discover social software • (JW) More and more free and useful on-line content for learners more materials created

by learners - teachers face more challenges as gatekeepers.• (JW) Schools have difficulty in managing local wi-fi access needed for school access -

and struggle to offer home access to resources• (JW) Google Wave or similar becomes learners e-portfolio for life long learning• (DN) Government starts new agenda to get every school hi speed broadband• (DN) YouTube Education Edition launches as part of Google Apps for Education• (TK) There will be much less distinction between 'educational' and other sorts of ICT, the

boundaries will blur (may move this back a year - to 2010?)• (SG) Schools networks will permit more access to web2.0 and social network sites• (JH) More friction between students and schools re mobile devices and access to social

media• (GW) Wireless technology on school stagnates due to bandwidth issues and cost of next

move• (GW) Rethink in Govt. VLE requirements - less about collaboration - more about parental

access to monitor performance• (GW) PGCE in ICT dropped in a number of establishments• (GW) Learning grids in England abolished and BSF grids established• (GW) Notebook leasing schemes prevalent in many schools

2012ICT in General

• (SL)3G As standard on mobile devices - (NA) I'd put that in 2011, if not 2010• (SL)Drop in price of sending video peer-to-peer on mobile networks• (NA) e-readers seen as blind alley as more people have multi-purpose mobile device

(Smartphone or Tablet)• (JW) many major UK town centres offer wireless clouds - (NA) nah, don't believe it. not

viable - plans already being dropped. people will use mobile networks ( fair comment but will be more ubiquitous access)

• (JH) Live Digital TV through handheld devices • (GW) Last desktop PC created

ICT in Education

• (SL)Growth in acceptance of using mobile devices in schools - (NA) would move up - see above

• (SL)XXWEB2.0XX service to allow text-to-vote service for use in classrooms (NA don't see why this hasn't happened already - eminently possible)

• (JW) Learners will have access to wide variety of learning - and will question formal school setting

• (JW) Teachers will be expected to maintain a personal learning network extending beyond country they work in and will have to show evidence of ICT skills in classroom as part of a licence to practice

• (JW) digital divide comes into sharper focus and public spending constraints means schools struggle to give learners equality of access

• (DN) Intelligent filtering introduced into schools allowing teachers and students access to more content.

• (CM) A(nother?) bigger push to get more teachers to use ICT as it is discovered that many teachers use only rudimentary ICT in the classroom, despite availability and investment. (DLN Son of NOF?)

• (PS) assessment begins a lesson, learning objects to fill a students VLE based on assessment results

2013

ICT in General

• (JG)Cloud computing becomes reality as internet access improves. CD's begin to dwindle as cars have built-in web browsers for navigation and multi-media streaming.

• (NA) devices increasing becoming flexible clients, downloading apps on demand and/or running services through broadband connections

• (NA) 4G mobile services (LTE not WiMAX) start to become mainstream, relieving data problem

• (PS) people will realize that netbooks don't solve their on demand need for the internet and sales fall; surge of iPod touch type of devices

• (JH) Microsoft & Apple announce last Desktop PC OS (Windows Omega?? Sabre tooth tiger)

• (TK) The end of the keyboard is clearly in sight (apologies to advocates of touch typing)

ICT in Education

• (JG)Distinction between platform and web software is relaxed. Learning in 'The Cloud' becomes reality.

• (DN) Electronic textbooks introduced in the classroom as ebook readers become affordable and editable (#hoverboard - old textbooks used to power old coal power stations)

• (PS) each student is profiled per ability and has content pushed to them based on ability• (JH) More teaching of students by collaborating teachers through the web

2014ICT in General

• (NA) someone has yet another go at meaningful speech recognition• (JH) More "intelligent" webpages on what users use on the page• (JH) Spam email is eliminated

ICT in Education

• (JG)VLE providers turn their attention to mobile/ handheld Apps, big discussions about allowing students mobile phones in lessons follow.

• (NA) MIS systems increasingly move to cloud. (ie. central LA/company servers, local terminals)

• (JW) following lead from workbased learning learners asked to create and problem solve to demonstrate competence and mastery based on learning rather than regurgitate facts in assessment.

• (JW) learners begin to get their own learning channel - built by them with tutor support - highly personalised - PLE

• (JH) Schools become online Learning hubs for Communities

2015ICT in General

• (NA) people begin to realise that the monolithic operating system is dead for general PC-style computing, all that is needed is web access

• (NA) Microsoft either a. wakes up or b. starts long decline• (SL) Sales of netbooks supercedes PCs and Laptops combined• (JH) PC/Laptops are less than £100/€130

ICT in Education

• (NA) Lots has changed on the fringes, but nothing much at the core - high stakes tests etc take all staff energy and ICT still seen as add-on

• (NA) one-to-one access to (largely personally owned) mobile devices really beginning to be realistic way for learners to use technology

• (NA) last cohort ever enters for IT/Computing A Level. (OK, not serious, but decline in numbers continues)

• (JW) movement at end of school to have curriculum reviewed annually by teachers and assessments designed across community - radical proposals to allow learners to shape curriculum postposed to 2016

• (JW) learners leave school with on-line portfolio of work covering academic and vocationally related skills

• (JW) in face of continued criticism over costs and standards, vocational relevance of undergraduate degree level provision - major review of university system is implemented

• (CM) Teachers still not allowed to teach from home despite students being able to learn from home for several years.

• (JW) Learners source information/skills from wide variety of sources in industry, HE, FE and wider social society - globally in final years of school -learning resource is cloud based with local teacher support.

• (JH) National subject Interest Groups for students to aid learning using a form of social media ( JW - this will happen a lot earlier 2011? informally already going)

• (DLN) OLED / LCD tech advancements mean that flatscreen monitors large enough (and cheap enough) to be used as interactive whiteboards a possibility. No need for projectors. With Multitouch. (possibly earlier - they can make them big enough now, but not cheap enough)

ReflectionsThe main change looking at these predictions as a whole is of a change in scales. Cloud computing appears to be on the rise, as the near-past would confirm, with more and more services to schools becoming less media-based, and more internet and server based. While this demands an ʻalways onʼ internet, perhaps this is reflecting a demand for a safe, strong and wide internet connection to be viewed as much an essential utility as water, heating and other essential utilities.

This in turn will give a scale and flexibility that is previously unknown in education. From a minor position of an ill student able to keep up wit their studies at home to a major position of a school suffering an arson attack being able to maintain a strong curriculum, this is a powerful opportunity to upgrade our learning materials for a digital age, or as Christian Payne might say, archiving our analogue now.

Scale also relates to the devices used, with a rise on mobile devices and decline on the hulking desktop PC. With more common access to gaming devices that are also able to access the ʻeducational cloudʼ, Liz Colbʼs theory ʻFrom Toys to Toolsʼ (making mobile phones and gaming devices part of our learning equipment rather than a threat) seems less like a theory, and more like a possibility.

The biggest ʻhollowʼ in our predictions appears to be the teachers themselves, who are only rarely mentioned, despite the jumps made. The real fear to my mind is, despite all the changes in technology that assist learning and educational development, will we still have a majority of teachers convinced that the latest thing is just a fad?

(Please note these are my personal reflections, based on the predictions gathered above.)

ContributorsA wide and varied collection of contributors kindly added to this document, and those who acknowledged their contribution within the online document are indicated below.

Stephen LockyerTeacher & Head of ICT at a Prep School in Kent, Collated this document@mrlockyer

James GreenwoodTeacher in west Yorkshire High School@jamesgreenwood

Neil AdamConsulant for education and ICT. Various training/writing/advising. Member of Naace. Becta's TechNews writer.@neiladam

Joe WilsonHead of New Ventures, National Qualifications Body, education consultancy, lecturer, teacher, manager , Community Education, Colleges, Vocational Learning@Joecar

Ian StuartTechnology teacher living off the west coast of Scotland@islayian

Daniel NeedlestoneICT Teacher, E-learning Coordinator, Educator@nstone

Colin MaxwellLecturer at Carnegie College in Scotland. Adobe Education Leader@camaxwell

Peter SchneiderInternational Education and Avid Video Maker@peteschneider

Struan GardnerDHT in a small Scottish Secondary School. Scientist & ICT enthusiast.@struan_gardner

Theo KuechelTechnologies for Learning, Archives - Collections, Open Educational Resources@theokk

John HeffernanInterested in Web2.0, handheld tech, communication technologies in education-also former History teacher@johnmayo

Danny NicholsonEducator, Science teacher, ICT Consultant, Author and Web2.0 / SMART Masters/ Interactive Whiteboard Trainer.@dannynic

Gideon WilliamsDirector of e-learning, Moodler@gideonwilliams

Images: Front - Saibot Regell (cc) , Rear - Jay Raz (cc)

All writing in this is protected under a Creative Commons Licence.