what will future communities look like? peter marshall strategy & policy manager 5 may 2011
TRANSCRIPT
What will future Communities look like?
Peter Marshall
Strategy & Policy Manager
5 May 2011
Questions?
What is a Community?
Why should Communities be any different?
What time scale – 10 years – 20 years – 100 years?
Questions?
What is a Community?
Why should Communities be any different?
What time scale – 10 years – 20 years – 100 years?
What is a Community?
Trade and service areas surrounding a central village(C. J. Galpin 1915)
Fellowship is heaven, and lack of fellowship is hell (William Morris 1886/7)
Place-Work-Folk
Patrick Geddes
Why should Communities be any different?
Aspirations Dissatisfaction with recent developments
Why should Communities be any different?
Aspirations
Communications revolutionHome workingHub offices
Why should Communities be any different?
Climate Change Changing weather patterns affecting design and locationNew street trees Palms, London Plane
Energy & Fuel pricesIndividual & community renewable technologiesClustering round public transport corridors
Aging populationSmaller houses / retirement communities
Mortgage availabilityTenure & lifestyle shift
What time scale – 10 years – 20 years – 100 years?
I doubt if we will see much change
•The developments largely already have consent
•Development curtailed
•Little appetite for risk
•Little money for research and development
•The current financial climate is curtailing innovation
What time scale – 10 years – 20 years – 100 years?
What we can expect is •Heightened debate with more Regulation & Guidance
•Individual solutions
•Demonstration projects
What time scale – 10 years – 20 years – 100 years?
What time scale – 10 years – 20 years – 100 years?
Common themes
•Mixed communities / neighbourhoods Greater percentage of needs met locally
•Perhaps based round community schools
•Greater tenure diversity
•More live work opportunities within community
What time scale – 10 years – 20 years – 100 years?
Common themes
•Energy efficient buildings
•Community renewables /District Heating / CHP
•Clustered round public transport nodes
•People will be more involved in shaping their communities
What time scale – 10 years – 20 years – 100 years?
The great debate is design
HRH Prince Charlesv
Radical thinkers
Poundbury
Poundbury
Poundbury
Poundbury
Poundbury
Poundbury
Bedzed
Bedzed
Living Solar Wall BDP
Living Solar Wall BDP
What time scale – 10 years – 20 years – 100 years?
Who knows?
What time scale – 10 years – 20 years – 100 years?
2100 and England is 4oC hotter. Between super-dense city tenements where most live, the parks are parched and dusty. What vegetation remains is mostly on buildings as they are clad to offset the heat. Children play on green rooftops. The roads are white reflect solar radiation. Londoners emerge in the "warmth-heavy night" to parade on the traffic-free streets like Spaniards.
Idyllic?
What time scale – 10 years – 20 years – 100 years?
Nature will survive mainly in the Scottish Highlands.
The bad news according to Kohn
Where human settlement is rendered impossible by midges and ticks, scrub will spread over the bare hills, except where wild fires wipe them clean again.
Final thoughts
The future is coming and it will be different
But do any of us know what our Communities will look like?
April 19, 2023