what matrix gaming is and how and when to do it

26
What Matrix Gaming is and how and when to do it. 19 ISMOR 30th August Michael Young

Upload: bruce-marquez

Post on 02-Jan-2016

16 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

DESCRIPTION

What Matrix Gaming is and how and when to do it. 19 ISMOR 30th August Michael Young. Matrix Gaming: ISMOR 19. The need Matrix Gaming fills. How do you do a Matrix Game? Illustrated by means of example study - Unmanned Submarine selection. When we should use Matrix Gaming. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: What Matrix Gaming is and how and when to do it

What Matrix Gaming is and how and when to do it.

19 ISMOR

30th August

Michael Young

Page 2: What Matrix Gaming is and how and when to do it

Matrix Gaming: ISMOR 19

The need Matrix Gaming fills.

How do you do a Matrix Game?

Illustrated by means of example study - Unmanned Submarine selection.

When we should use Matrix Gaming.

Page 3: What Matrix Gaming is and how and when to do it

The need Matrix Gaming fills

Build Scenarios

Structure Judgement– Avoiding Pitfalls

Rank

Personality

Emotions Waffling On

Preconceived Ideas

Boredom

Page 4: What Matrix Gaming is and how and when to do it

Matrix Gaming: ISMOR 19

The need Matrix Gaming fills.

How do you do a Matrix Game?

Illustrated by means of example study - Unmanned Submarine selection.

When we should use Matrix Gaming.

Page 5: What Matrix Gaming is and how and when to do it

“Procurement” Game.

Page 6: What Matrix Gaming is and how and when to do it

Is it militarily useful?

Is this technically possible?

How much does this cost?

Page 7: What Matrix Gaming is and how and when to do it

Costings Expert

Costings Expert

Costings Expert

Engineer

UUV designer

Naval Expert

Naval ExpertWargaming Expert

Historical and costings Expert

MoD MineWarfare ExpertUUV

Analyst

Engineer

UUV Manufacturer

UUVEngineer

MoD Operational

Analyst

MoD Operational

Analyst

Naval Analyst

Page 8: What Matrix Gaming is and how and when to do it

Move 1 : 2002 to 2015: Suggested spend.

How would your team spend up to £200m on Unmanned Submarines over the next 12 years?

– What capabilities will you be providing?– In what scenarios?– Will this be politically acceptable?– Is the spend profile plausible?

Decide on the characteristics then prepare a 5 minute presentation on the concept.

Page 9: What Matrix Gaming is and how and when to do it

Specification Spreadsheet

Page 10: What Matrix Gaming is and how and when to do it

HVR FACET Model

Page 11: What Matrix Gaming is and how and when to do it

Example Matrix Game Move: Technology Improvements.

What is the technical change that you expect to occur in the next 12 years that will have the greatest impact on the capabilities of Unmanned Subs?

State what the change is.

State 3 reasons why the change will happen.

Page 12: What Matrix Gaming is and how and when to do it

NOTICE !!

Each team says:–One thing they think would happen–Up to three reasons why it would

happen

Page 13: What Matrix Gaming is and how and when to do it

Write Description

Detailed description of the single most important thing that happens. This should be specific.

– “The development of Al2/O2 Fuel Cell technology will allow energy densities 3 to 4 times those possible today with Lithium Ion Batteries”.

– NOT “Super Batteries appear”

Page 14: What Matrix Gaming is and how and when to do it

Supporting reasons

The three reasons are “Marked” by a judge.– 1) No reason or Stupid reason 0%– 2) Plausible Reason 10%.– 3) Good Reason 20%– 4) Very Good reason 30%– 5) Excellent reason 40%

Result between 0 and 120%

Counter arguments reduce by 0-40%

Roll the dice!

Page 15: What Matrix Gaming is and how and when to do it

Supporting reasons

Up to three reasons why this may happen.

–1) This is predicted by this document I’ve got (see page)...

–2) Existing Fuel Cells are able to perform this well in the lab.

–3) This would make an effective Unmanned Submarine, when accompanied by improvements in navigation.

30% Good reason30% Good reason

15% Quite good reason15% Quite good reason

0% - NOT A REASON - An effect0% - NOT A REASON - An effectand another actionand another action

Page 16: What Matrix Gaming is and how and when to do it

Other “Procurement Game” questions

How would your project cope with a 30% budget cut?

Would your project have “political” difficulties?

What would go wrong with the other team’s projects?

Describe a scenario where your project would do particularly well.

Page 17: What Matrix Gaming is and how and when to do it

“Combat” Game.

Page 18: What Matrix Gaming is and how and when to do it

Unclassifed Example: Minelaying?

SEA SCUD

Page 19: What Matrix Gaming is and how and when to do it

“Combat” Game

Map of Game in Progress

Page 20: What Matrix Gaming is and how and when to do it

Matrix arguments RED move 1

What occurs: Between D-30 and D day, 2 ground mines are laid on each of the ten principle rig-shore oil pipelines, using SeaScuds, set to actuate at D+5

Reason 1: Promotes objective of cutting off oil supplies + 30%

Reason 2: Covert measure- does not alert BLUE about our intentions +30%

Reason 3: Difficult to counter + 20%

Response: Pipelines are surveyed by maintenance ROVs, that may pick them up: Satellites may pick up the SeaScuds. -35%

Result: 16/45% These mines were laid, and activated. Two out of the five pipelines were severed

Page 21: What Matrix Gaming is and how and when to do it

Map at Move 2

Coins = breaks in Oil pipelines (attacked by SeaScud)

SBS, frigate and helicopter brought up

Fishing boats deployed to annoy BLUE and lay mines

Beached Sea Scud

Page 22: What Matrix Gaming is and how and when to do it

Map at Move 3

Coins = breaks in Oil pipelines

Marlin (RDS sensor package) deployed off oil rig to check for SeaScud movement.

BLUE Semi-Submersibles used to check pipelines for mines

BLUE Exclusion zone forces RED to redeploy Fishing flotilla

RED frigate deploys forward and then launches SeaScuds at remaining pipeline

BLUE Amphibious forces “poise” in mid Gulf

SeaScuds attack oil terminals

Page 23: What Matrix Gaming is and how and when to do it

Matrix Gaming: ISMOR 19

The need Matrix Gaming fills.

How do you do a Matrix Game?

Illustrated by means of example study - Unmanned Submarine selection.

When we should use Matrix Gaming.

Page 24: What Matrix Gaming is and how and when to do it

Links to lower level OA

Everything we know how to model

MATRIX GAME

Everything that could be modelled

What we ought to model (scenario outcome sensitive)

Results

Page 25: What Matrix Gaming is and how and when to do it

Conclusions: Use Matrix Gaming

Build Scenarios

Structure Judgement– Avoiding Pitfalls

Rank

Personality

Emotions Waffling On

Preconceived Ideas

Boredom

Fun

Page 26: What Matrix Gaming is and how and when to do it

End of presentation