what makes cities smart?

© 2015 TM Forum | 1 Peter Sany presentation at the Global City Forum

What Makes Cities Smart?Collaboration, Digitisation and New Technologiesare the Cure for Many City DiseasesPeter Sany, President & CEO, TM ForumGlobal City Forum, Shanghai, Nov 1, 2016

© 2015 TM Forum | 2 Peter Sany presentation at the Global City Forum Source: United Nations

Two Generations of Population Growth Ahead

• The world population will grow by 2 billion people in the next 30 years

• Almost all of this growth is in Africa, India and Asia

Africa 108.9%

Oceania 43.9%

LatAm 23.6%

N. Am 21.6%

Asia 19.9%

Europe -4.3%

2015 - 2050 Population forecast 1950 – 2100 Population trends

WORLDASIAAFRICAEUROPELAT AM/CARIBBEANN. AMERICAOCEANIA


Ageing Population Puts Pressure on Society

• Average life expectancy is rising dramatically• This puts pressure on healthcare, benefit

systems, and society at large

< 65

> 655%

Now

< 65

> 65

16%

2050

2100:69%

1960:40%

Africa

% of global population over 65 will more than double by 2050

Life expectancy trends 1950-2050

MORE DEVELOPED REGIONSLAT AM/CARIBBEANASIAWORLDAFRICA

© 2015 TM Forum | 4 Peter Sany presentation at the Global City Forum Source: World Bank: United Nations

Increase in Disposable Income Transforms Societies

• Net disposable income rises & extreme poverty falls• Most significant transformation in Africa• Greater wealth drives societal transformation

through, but also greater consumption and demand on resources

Net Disposable

Income

Extreme Poverty

Communication Energy,

Travel General

Consumption

Net Disposable Income Trend

AFRICAASIALAT AM/CARIBBEANEUROPEN. AMERICA


Urbanization: Massive Population & Economic Growth in Cities

• Industrial Age – Industry 2.0• Globally still predominantly rural population

1950 30%70%

Urban vs Rural Population ChangeOverall Population Growth1950-2050: 2.4 Bn to 9.3 Bn ~

4x

Urban Population Growth1950-2050: 800 Mio to 6.2 Bn ~

8x


2017

• Information Age & Industry 3.0, 4.0 emerging• Massive growth of urban population

Urban vs Rural Population Change


45% 55%

Overall Population Growth1950-2050: 2.4 Bn to 9.3 Bn ~

4x


8x

2015: 20 Mio1950: 10 kShenzhen ~ 2’000x



205070%

30%

• Digital Age & Industry 4.0 in full swing• Massive growth of urban population

Urban vs Rural Population ChangeOverall Population Growth1950-2050: 2.4 Bn to 9.3 Bn ~

4x


8x

2015 Urban Population 2050India: + 404 MioChina: + 292 MioNigeria: + 212 Mio

© 2015 TM Forum | 8 Peter Sany presentation at the Global City Forum Source: Economist

Economic Power is Moving to Asia

• Asia is reclaiming its historic role as dominant economic region

• The power shift will lead to many unknown consequences

Asia % of global GDP continues to rise

Asia %of GDPin 2000

26%

Asia %of GDPin 2014

32%

Asia %of GDPin 2050

53%The power map is changing


Digitization Connects People, Devices and Businesses at an Exponential Rate

• Digital transformation affects all traditional businesses

• Decision power is moving from boardrooms to consumers

• 200 billion connected devices change the fabric of society

200 Billion Devices & Sensors by 2020


Mega-Trends Have an Extreme Effect on Cities

Pollution

Waste

Energy

Congestion

Health

Civil Unrest

Population Growth

Ageing Population

Increasing Income

Urbanization

Economic Shift East

Information Age


Slowing Down: Population Plateaus in 2050

• But there are still two generations of unprecedented growth ahead

• This demands a re-think of how we consume resources, and it needs to be done now!

Fertility

2100NOW

NORTH AMERICAOCEANIA

AFRICA

LATAM

ASIA

1950

Life Expectancy

FamilySize

LifeExpectancy

83yrs

46yrs

EUROPE


The Sharing Economy is Thriving

Owning Economy

Sharing Economy

1 : 1

m : m


From Ego-Systems to Eco-Systems

• Individuals and businesses must move from ego-systems to eco-systems

• Sharing is more efficient• Collaboration is key to rapid innovation• Ownership is becoming less and less

important• Convenience and cost will be key

factors in the future• A world of co-opetition


We Need to Understand the Worldas Interconnected Ecosystems

Smart Social and Economic Ecosystems

Digital Backbone Infrastructure Ecosystem


We Need 4P’s: Public - Private - People - Partnership

PeopleSociety

PublicGovernmen

t

PrivateEnterprise

Partnership


A Smart City Strategy Equates to a CollaborativeTop-down and Bottom-up Approach

Top-DownIndividuals SMEs + EnterpriseExploit the Digital Backbone

Bottom-UpGovernment Infrastructure

Digital Backbone & Services


A Common Ecosystem Language is Necessary

Digital contracts

Reference architectures

Information models

Process models & taxonomy

End-to-end management

Maturity models

Security & privacy

TM Forum

Digital Backplane

Clients, Customers, Apps, Devices

Ecosystem Platforms & Services

Cloud Infrastructure


Technology and Interconnected EcosystemsWill Help to Overcome City Diseases

Combinedmobility

Less travel

Happier citizens

Increased densityAutnom.

Vehicles

Self servicegovernment

administration

Socialdevelopment

solutionsLess

pollution

Betterpriorities

Betterlives &health

Smartdata

Bettercommunication

Pollution

Waste

Energy

Congestion

Health

Civil Unrest

Less energyconsumption


Digital Transformation and Collaboration Will Make a Better World

Smart CityBetter Life

ExploitingInformation Age

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