what is “peak oil” and who is this oio task force?

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What is “Peak Oil” and What is “Peak Oil” and Who is this OIO Task Who is this OIO Task Force? Force?

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Page 1: What is “Peak Oil” and Who is this OIO Task Force?

What is “Peak Oil” and Who What is “Peak Oil” and Who is this OIO Task Force?is this OIO Task Force?

Page 2: What is “Peak Oil” and Who is this OIO Task Force?

Introduction

What does Peak Oil Mean?

What is the “Oil Independent Oakland by 2020

Task Force”?

Page 3: What is “Peak Oil” and Who is this OIO Task Force?

Peak OilOpportunities and Challenge

at the end of Cheap Petroleum

Peak OilOpportunities and Challenge

at the end of Cheap Petroleum

Richard Heinberg Scripps College

September 18, 2006

The Challenge

of Peak Oil

The Challenge

of Peak Oil

Richard HeinbergOil Independent Oakland Task Force

Richard HeinbergOil Independent Oakland Task Force

Page 4: What is “Peak Oil” and Who is this OIO Task Force?
Page 5: What is “Peak Oil” and Who is this OIO Task Force?

Post Carbon Institute

Page 6: What is “Peak Oil” and Who is this OIO Task Force?

Chevron:

“Oil production is in decline in 33 of the 48 largest oil producing countries, yet energy demand is increasing around the globe as economies grow and nations develop.” www.willyoujoinus.com

Page 7: What is “Peak Oil” and Who is this OIO Task Force?

Global Oil Discoveries

ExxonMobil 2003

Page 8: What is “Peak Oil” and Who is this OIO Task Force?
Page 9: What is “Peak Oil” and Who is this OIO Task Force?
Page 10: What is “Peak Oil” and Who is this OIO Task Force?
Page 11: What is “Peak Oil” and Who is this OIO Task Force?
Page 12: What is “Peak Oil” and Who is this OIO Task Force?

How serious a problem is this?

Page 13: What is “Peak Oil” and Who is this OIO Task Force?

Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, & Risk Management

Robert L. Hirsch, SAIC, Project Leader (commissioned by US Department of Energy, February 2005)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARYThe peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking.

Page 14: What is “Peak Oil” and Who is this OIO Task Force?

GAO Report on Peak Oil

Released April 2007; conclusions: Did not attempt a time estimate; forecasts of

peak range from 2005 to 2030 The risks are serious and growing At best, the US can replace 4% of its liquid

fuels with alternatives by 2015 Secretary of Energy should establish a

federal Peak Oil strategy

Page 15: What is “Peak Oil” and Who is this OIO Task Force?
Page 16: What is “Peak Oil” and Who is this OIO Task Force?

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

1950 2000 2050 2100

Worldwide possible coal production M toe

OECD North America

China

LA

OECD Pacific

Africa

OECD Europe

SouthAsia

East Asia

FSUsubbitum

inous

subbituminous

subbituminousbituminous

bituminous

bituminous

bituminous

bituminous

lignitelignite

lignite

lignite

lignitelignite

bituminous

Year

WEO 2006: Reference scenario

WEO 2006: Alternative policy scenario

Page 17: What is “Peak Oil” and Who is this OIO Task Force?

Ethanol to the rescue?

“Even if all of the 300 million acres (500,000 square miles) of currently harvested U.S. cropland produced ethanol, it wouldn’t supply all of the gasoline and diesel fuel we now burn for transport, and it would supply only about half of the needs for the year 2025. And the effects on land and would be devastating.”

--“The False Hope of Biofuels: For Energy and Environmental Reasons, Ethanol Will Never Replace Gasoline” (James Jordan and James Powell, Washington Post, July 2, 2006)

Page 18: What is “Peak Oil” and Who is this OIO Task Force?

Post Carbon Institute

What does “green” mean?

In some ways, it makes sense to use carbon emissions as the measure of both the problem and potential solutions, since

Carbon emissions are the primary driver of climate change, and

Climate change is the worst environmental problem facing us.

Page 19: What is “Peak Oil” and Who is this OIO Task Force?

What does “green” mean?

However, exclusive use of the carbon emissions metric can be misleading:

It ignores fuel supply problems GHG reduction leads to different solutions

than petroleum independence. On the OIO Task Force we have found this to

be an important distinction!

Page 20: What is “Peak Oil” and Who is this OIO Task Force?

For More Information on Peak Oil:

oildepletionprotocol.org

postcarboncities.org

Page 21: What is “Peak Oil” and Who is this OIO Task Force?

So what do we do now…

Oil Independent Oakland by 2020 Task Force Inspired by Sweden’s Commission on Oil Independence- Report

Released June 2006 When council member Nadel Learned about Sweden’s Commission,

she and the council were inspired to bring that vision to Oakland City of Portland Peak Oil Task Force Report Released March 2007- with

theme of Act Big, Act Now

Composed of 11 City Council and Mayoral Appointees Organized into 4 working groups (plus one ad hoc)

Land Use and Infrastructure Transportation Food and Social Equity Port of Oakland

Page 22: What is “Peak Oil” and Who is this OIO Task Force?

OIO by 2020 Task Force

Our Principles (abbreviated) Employ triple bottom line approach, environment, equity,

economy City actionable Bias Towards Bold “Both/and” rather than “either/or” approach 80/20 rule for most impact Continuous improvement model Whole system with parts greater than whole Leverage other similar efforts and other experts in the area

Page 23: What is “Peak Oil” and Who is this OIO Task Force?

OIO by 2020 Task Force- Metrics

Key Measures Petroleum Use Per Capita Jobs Emissions Impact (especially GHG’s)

Secondary Measures Economic Impact Fiscal Impact to City Life Cycle Cost

Page 24: What is “Peak Oil” and Who is this OIO Task Force?

Timeline

We expect to report by the end of the year We want your input- now!