The Demographic Transition Model (Ahhhhhhh)!What is it and why is it important?

What is it?

What was it based on?

Stage 1 The High Fluctuating Stage

This stage is typified by a high CBR and CDR.WHY?

Population growth is very slow. WHY?

Stage 2The Early Expanding Stage

Stage 2 sees the death rate drop.CAUSES:

Birth rate remains high.CAUSES:

Population growth rates are skyrocketing.WHY?

Considerable rural to urban migration takes place.

Stage 3The Late Expanding Stage

During stage 3 the total population is still rising rapidly, but the gap between birth and death rates narrows, why?

Population growth in many stage 3 countries is due to what?

Urbanisation slows.

Stage 4The Low Fluctuating Stage

Stage 4 the total population is high, but it is balanced, why?

Birth rate fluctuates due to:

Death rate rises slightly because:

What happens to life expectancy?

Stage 5The Natural Decrease Stage

In Stage 5 the total population is high but going into decline, WHY?

Which countries are entering Stage 5?

For there to declining population there has to be an absence of what?

DTM

Uses

Simplifies the real world

Predict future trends Planning

Adaptability

Limitations

Failed to predict

population decline

Assumes that in time all countries will pass through

the same four stages.

Unlikely that many LEDCs will

ever become industrialised

Doesn’t account for

many factors

Inability to afford medical facilities

Religious influencePolitical influence

Impact of epidemicsMigration

Demographic Momentum

As countries progress through the DTM, fertility rates fall – however, the population can continue to increase. This phenomenon is known as DEMOGRAPHIC MOMENTUM.

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4Expansive. Expansive. Stationary. Contractive.

Concave sides. Straight sides. Convex sides. Convex sides.

High birth rate. Still high birth rate.

Declining birth rate.

Low birth rate.

High death rate. Falling death rate. Low death rate. Low death rate.

Short life expectancy.

Slightly longer life expectancy.

Long life expectancy.

Longer life expectancy.

Rapid fall in each upward age group

due to high DR.

Fall in DR so more people living into

middle age.

An increasing proportion of the population is in

the 65+ age group.

Higher dependency

ratio.

Kenya India Argentina SwedenEconomic development increases >>>>

Demographic Transition and Population Structure

How has the population structure of Singapore changed between 1999 and 2009?