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What is Important in the Reservoir for CO 2 EOR/EGR and Sequestration? Presented by: Richard Baker Prepared for APEGGA Annual Conference GHG Opportunities: Small and Large Technologies April 22-24, 2004 Slide 2 Outline Conclusions Conclusions Field CO 2 EOR response Field CO 2 EOR response Determination of Incremental Reserves Determination of Incremental Reserves Incremental CO 2 Response RF vs. HCPVI Incremental CO 2 Response RF vs. HCPVI Typical cash flow for CO 2 /EOR Typical cash flow for CO 2 /EOR CO 2 sequestration CO 2 sequestration What are the most important factors? What are the most important factors? Summary Summary Slide 3 Conclusions 1. There has been very good to excellent response on many USA/Canadian CO 2 floods to date in a wide range of conditions 2. CO 2 is a mature technology in USA and in Canada it will be mature in 5 -10 years 3. Early time response often control CO 2 economics 4. There is wide variations in early time response between various fields. Early time response is a function of heterogeneity, current oil saturation and injection rates. Slide 4 Conclusions 4. Forty plus years of EOR (CO 2 + HC) miscible have shown that the controlling factors in CO 2 economics are (early time response); 5. Reservoir heterogeneity a) Remaining oil saturation b) CO 2 price c) Infrastructure d) Well bore integrity 6. Screening needs to include historical field response and level of depletion as well as infrastructure and mapping of current oil in place 7. Concerns about CO2 emissions will force action 8. Cooperative approach will aid implementation Slide 5 Options for CO2 Usage/Disposal EOR GOBCBM EGR Value Added Rental of pore space Regulatory driven CO2 Emission Slide 6 Slide 7 Slide 8 Response time Peak oil rate Slide 9 Slide 10 Time to peak oil rates time response Slide 11 CO2 Flooding World Wide 75 Projects worldwide 194,000 Bbl/d 66 in US From Jarrell et al, Practical Aspects of CO2 Flooding Slide 12 Total oil rate Incremental oil rate SPE paper 26391 CO 2 Flood Performance Slide 13 Total oil rate Incremental oil rate Hansford Marmaton = secondary, low initial pressure, low permeability reservoir CO 2 Flood Performance Slide 14 Slide 15 Comparison Normalization of CO 2 behaviour Cum. oil Vol. of original oil Cum. injection Vol. of reservoir For comparison purposes Slide 16 SPE paper 35391, SPE monograph Stalkup, SPE paper 26391, and Epics interpretation How Do These Floods Compare to Each Other? Slide 17 Whats Different between Texas and Canadian Reserves Infrastructure Infrastructure Thicker continuous net pay Thicker continuous net pay General geological environment General geological environment Depth Depth Temperature Temperature Some of the best Canadian have already miscible flooded Some of the best Canadian have already miscible flooded Horizontal wells Horizontal wells Rules of thumb Rules of thumb Slide 18 So What is Important ? Initial Response drives payout time Slide 19 Important The major objection to CO 2 by oil producers is long pay out times not producers is long pay out times not necessarily total reserves or NPV necessarily total reserves or NPV initial oil response large capital exposure Slide 20 Whats worked in Western Canada in the Petroleum Industry? Short pay out time Short pay out time Good to excellent local knowledge of the reservoir/geology Good to excellent local knowledge of the reservoir/geology Very good execution of plans Very good execution of plans Using technical edges; horizontal well/3D seismic/screw pumps Using technical edges; horizontal well/3D seismic/screw pumps Economy of scale (shallow gas or heavy oil drilling) Economy of scale (shallow gas or heavy oil drilling) Slide 21 Disjoint between Government and Industry If CO2 capture and geological storage is to play a significant role in mitigating global emissions, then the quantity of CO2 place in geological storage will need to approach 10 Gt/yr worldwide roughly 300 times the current rate of CO2 injection for EOR. D. Keith and M. Wilson Nov. 2002 -34 Mt/yrvs. 10,000 Mt/yr ~ target {1.79 Bcf/d}{527 Bcf/d} Slide 22 Disjoint between Government and Industry Global screening techniques Research focused Regulation focus Specific field screening Field experience critical Large capital expense CO 2 flood payout Keeping low costs ($/bbl) SUGARvs.SALT Slide 23 Use the Past to Forecast the Future What is the classical Screening Criteria? API gravity Current reservoir pressure Depth Oil saturation But what about Heterogeneity? Slide 24 T. Bu, I. Soreide, T. Kydland: IOR Screening: What Went Wrong?, Norsk Hydro E & P Norway, Steering Committee of the European IOR Symposium, This paper was prepared for presentation at the European IOR Symposium in Moscow, Russia, October 27-29, 1993 The most common screening methods are reviewed and some shortcomings are pointed out. One important aspect is that more effort should be put on mapping of remaining mobile oil in the reservoirs and methods for producing these resources. The most common screening methods are reviewed and some shortcomings are pointed out. One important aspect is that more effort should be put on mapping of remaining mobile oil in the reservoirs and methods for producing these resources. not taking heterogeneities into account in realistic manner not taking heterogeneities into account in realistic manner Screening Slide 25 What is the most important for CO 2 EOR? Initial oil response (response time/peak oil rate); current oil saturations and injection rates Permeability/Reservoir heterogeneity CO 2 price Infrastructure Slide 26 Some Info on CO2 Sequestration Which reservoir should I inject in?Oil & Gas Known Seismic Core Prod Minimizes risk Deep Saline Unknowns Long term liability increased It is better to have the devil that you know than the one you dont. Slide 27 Summary 1.Early time response ( Slide 28 #Reservoirs vs. screening criteria ROIP>10 MMSTB ROIP > 5 MMSTB 743 pools 1218 pools API Gravity > 25 391 pools 723 pools Reservoir Temperature < 93C 376 pools 694 pools Mean Formation Depth > 610 m 374 pools 691 pools Current Recovery Factor > 25% 125 pools 213 pools Exclude pools with previous miscible floods 85 pools 164 pools 9067 Pools (Alberta 2000 Oil Reserves Database) Slide 29 Infrastructures: CO2 Sites & Sources Slide 30 Source: Bachu, 2001 (EUB) Slide 31 Source: Waldie, 2003 (Combustion News) Slide 32 Source: Bachu, 2003 (AGS) Slide 33 CO2 Flood:Tools Available PRIze PRIze CO2 Prophet CO2 Prophet Kinder Morgan Predictive Tool Kinder Morgan Predictive Tool Epic CO2 Analysis Package Epic CO2 Analysis Package Slide 34 Epic CO2 Analysis Package: Technical Analysis Develop Injection Patterns Preliminary Screening Data Collection Input Reservoir, Fluid & Production/Injection Data Calculate & Evaluate Production Forecasts Proceed To Economic Analysis Slide 35 Economic Analysis Input Production & Injection Profiles Input Capital Costs & Economic Parameters Calculate Economics Evaluate economics results Slide 36 Salient Features Uses current water saturation Uses current water saturation Uses current reservoir pressure Uses current reservoir pressure Can model WAG floods Can model WAG floods Program can be validated where CO2 flood history exists Program can be validated where CO2 flood history exists Screening, technical analysis & economic evaluation tied-in Screening, technical analysis & economic evaluation tied-in Slide 37 Base Case Example Economics Describe the base case Describe the base case ROIP = 10 MMBBl CO2 price: Cdn $1.50/Mscf Oil price: Cdn $30/bbl CO2 Recycling Cost: Cdn $ 0.40/Mscf Percent CO2 Recycled: 90% Discount factor: 15% Royalty rate: 16.7% What areal size does this correspond? Assume OOIP = 15 MMSTB (30% RF) h = 6 m (20 ft) Porosity = 15% Swi = 30% Areal extent 1,050 acres ( 1 section) Slide 38 Validation (Joffre Viking, AB) Slide 39 Validation (North Cross, TX) Slide 40 Production/Injection Profiles Slide 41 Payout versus CO2 & Oil Prices t < 1 yr t > 5 yrs Slide 42 Payout versus CO2 & Oil Prices Slide 43 NPV versus CO2 & Oil Prices (Capital = MM$11) Slide 44 ROR versus CO2 & Oil Prices Slide 45 Effect of Royalty (1%) Slide 46 ROIP increased 10 times; 100 MMSTB ROIP increased 10 times; 100 MMSTB Sensitivity To ROIP Slide 47 ROIP 100 MMSTB; Royalty 16.67% Slide 48 Royalty reduction will be beneficial to small size pools Following economic parameters emerged out of this study: Oil price: $30 CO2 price: $1 1.50/MSCF Payout: 5 10 years ROR: 15 30 years CO2 should be attractive for small size pools (ROIP 10 MMSTB) Highlights Economic $creening Slide 49 Some Recent Developments Streamline modeling of miscible 475,000 cell model, ~600 wells Run time ~70 minutes Compositional modeling Sector Model 40,000 cell sector model Run time ~ 10 hours FDP delivered in Summary 1. Concerns about CO2 emissions will force action 2. CO2 flooding is a mature process used successfully worldwide for >35 years 3. CO2 infrastructure to be developed in Alberta 4. Cooperative approach will aid implementation 5. Approximately 100-200 reservoirs are good candidates from initial screen 6. Generic economics positive - Site specific economics the next step