western dairy industry challenges - farm management · dairy farm receipts 2017 –in millions of...

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WESTERN EXTENSION COMMITTEE SYMPOSIUM WESTERN DAIRY INDUSTRY CHALLENGES WEC – WESTERN EXTENSION COMMITTEE 2019 ANNUAL MEETING, COEUR D’ALENE, ID Hernan A. Tejeda University of Idaho July 1, 2019

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Page 1: WESTERN DAIRY INDUSTRY CHALLENGES - Farm Management · Dairy Farm Receipts 2017 –in Millions of Dollars 834.3 6,561.7 754.2 2,510.30 125.8 1,331.60 496.6 389.8 1,184.5 2,213.20

WESTERN EXTENSION COMMITTEE SYMPOSIUM

WESTERN DAIRY INDUSTRY CHALLENGES

WEC – WESTERN EXTENSION COMMITTEE

2019 ANNUAL MEETING, COEUR D’ALENE, ID

Hernan A. TejedaUniversity of Idaho

July 1, 2019

Page 2: WESTERN DAIRY INDUSTRY CHALLENGES - Farm Management · Dairy Farm Receipts 2017 –in Millions of Dollars 834.3 6,561.7 754.2 2,510.30 125.8 1,331.60 496.6 389.8 1,184.5 2,213.20

The Dairy industry is among the Largest operation for Ag. Commodities in many Western states (Farm Receipts).

It is the largest for California, Idaho, and New Mexico

It is the 2nd largest for Arizona, Colorado, Utah and Washington.

Page 3: WESTERN DAIRY INDUSTRY CHALLENGES - Farm Management · Dairy Farm Receipts 2017 –in Millions of Dollars 834.3 6,561.7 754.2 2,510.30 125.8 1,331.60 496.6 389.8 1,184.5 2,213.20

Dairy Farm Receipts 2017 – in Millions of Dollars

834.3

6,561.7

754.2

2,510.30

125.8

1,331.60

496.6 389.8

1,184.5

2,213.20

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Arizona California Colorado Idaho Montana Nevada New Mexico Oregon Utah Washington Wyoming Texas

$ Millions

1st Cattle & Calves

1st Cattle & Calves

1st Assorted Crops 2nd Cattle & Calves

1st Cattle & Calves

1st Apples 1st Cattle & Calves2nd Cotton3rd Broilers

1st Lettuce

(USDA – ERS, 2017)

Page 4: WESTERN DAIRY INDUSTRY CHALLENGES - Farm Management · Dairy Farm Receipts 2017 –in Millions of Dollars 834.3 6,561.7 754.2 2,510.30 125.8 1,331.60 496.6 389.8 1,184.5 2,213.20

Dairy Farm Receipts 2012 - 2017 in Millions of Dollars

(USDA – ERS, 2017)

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

Arizona California Colorado Idaho Nevada New Mexico Oregon Utah Washington Texas2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F

$ Millions

Page 5: WESTERN DAIRY INDUSTRY CHALLENGES - Farm Management · Dairy Farm Receipts 2017 –in Millions of Dollars 834.3 6,561.7 754.2 2,510.30 125.8 1,331.60 496.6 389.8 1,184.5 2,213.20

Dairy Farm Receipts 2012 - 2017 in Millions of Dollars(excludes California)

(USDA – ERS, 2017)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

Arizona Colorado Idaho Nevada New Mexico Oregon Utah Washington Texas

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F

$ Millions

Page 6: WESTERN DAIRY INDUSTRY CHALLENGES - Farm Management · Dairy Farm Receipts 2017 –in Millions of Dollars 834.3 6,561.7 754.2 2,510.30 125.8 1,331.60 496.6 389.8 1,184.5 2,213.20

(USDA – Ag Census)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

1997 2002 2007 2012 2017

CA ‐ # Dairy Farms by Herd Size, 1997 to 2017

10 TO 99 100 TO 499 500 + Total # Farms

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

1997 2002 2007 2012 2017

CA ‐ # Cows by Herd Size, 1997 to 2017

10 TO 99 100 TO 499 500 + Total # Cows

Page 7: WESTERN DAIRY INDUSTRY CHALLENGES - Farm Management · Dairy Farm Receipts 2017 –in Millions of Dollars 834.3 6,561.7 754.2 2,510.30 125.8 1,331.60 496.6 389.8 1,184.5 2,213.20

(USDA – Ag Census)

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1997 2002 2007 2012 2017

ID ‐ # Farms by Herd Size

10 TO 99 100 TO 499 500 + Total # Farms

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

1997 2002 2007 2012 2017

ID ‐ # Cows by Herd Size

10 TO 99 100 TO 499 500 + Total # Cows

Page 8: WESTERN DAIRY INDUSTRY CHALLENGES - Farm Management · Dairy Farm Receipts 2017 –in Millions of Dollars 834.3 6,561.7 754.2 2,510.30 125.8 1,331.60 496.6 389.8 1,184.5 2,213.20

(USDA – Ag Census)

020406080

100120140160180200

1997 2002 2007 2012 2017

NM ‐ # Farms by Herd Size

10 TO 99 100 TO 499 500 + Total # Farms

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

1997 2002 2007 2012 2017

NM ‐ # Cows by Herd Size

10 TO 99 100 TO 499 500 + Total # Cows

Page 9: WESTERN DAIRY INDUSTRY CHALLENGES - Farm Management · Dairy Farm Receipts 2017 –in Millions of Dollars 834.3 6,561.7 754.2 2,510.30 125.8 1,331.60 496.6 389.8 1,184.5 2,213.20

(USDA – Ag Census)

0200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,6001,800

1997 2002 2007 2012 2017

WA ‐ # Farms by Herd Size

10 TO 99 100 TO 499 500 + Total # Farms

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

1997 2002 2007 2012 2017

WA ‐ # Cows by Herd Size

10 TO 99 100 TO 499 500 + Total # Cows

Page 10: WESTERN DAIRY INDUSTRY CHALLENGES - Farm Management · Dairy Farm Receipts 2017 –in Millions of Dollars 834.3 6,561.7 754.2 2,510.30 125.8 1,331.60 496.6 389.8 1,184.5 2,213.20

(USDA – Ag Census)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1997 2002 2007 2012 2017

AZ ‐ # Farms by Herd Size

10 TO 99 100 TO 499 500 + Total # Farms

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

1997 2002 2007 2012 2017

AZ ‐ # Cows by Herd Size

10 TO 99 100 TO 499 500 + Total # Cows

Page 11: WESTERN DAIRY INDUSTRY CHALLENGES - Farm Management · Dairy Farm Receipts 2017 –in Millions of Dollars 834.3 6,561.7 754.2 2,510.30 125.8 1,331.60 496.6 389.8 1,184.5 2,213.20

(USDA – Ag Census)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1997 2002 2007 2012 2017

UT ‐ # Farms by Herd Size

10 TO 99 100 TO 499 500 + Total # Farms

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

1997 2002 2007 2012 2017

UT ‐ # Cows by Herd Size

10 TO 99 100 TO 499 500 + Total # Cows

Page 12: WESTERN DAIRY INDUSTRY CHALLENGES - Farm Management · Dairy Farm Receipts 2017 –in Millions of Dollars 834.3 6,561.7 754.2 2,510.30 125.8 1,331.60 496.6 389.8 1,184.5 2,213.20

(USDA – Ag Census)

0200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,000

1997 2002 2007 2012 2017

TX ‐ # Farms by Herd Size

10 TO 99 100 TO 499 500 + Total # Farms

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

1997 2002 2007 2012 2017

TX ‐ # Cows by Herd Size

10 TO 99 100 TO 499 500 + Total # Cows

Page 13: WESTERN DAIRY INDUSTRY CHALLENGES - Farm Management · Dairy Farm Receipts 2017 –in Millions of Dollars 834.3 6,561.7 754.2 2,510.30 125.8 1,331.60 496.6 389.8 1,184.5 2,213.20

(USDA – ERS, Frazier LLP & Idaho Data)

Dairy Cost of Production by State

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

California Idaho New Mexico Oregon Utah Washington Texas

$/cwt

2016 2017 2018

Page 14: WESTERN DAIRY INDUSTRY CHALLENGES - Farm Management · Dairy Farm Receipts 2017 –in Millions of Dollars 834.3 6,561.7 754.2 2,510.30 125.8 1,331.60 496.6 389.8 1,184.5 2,213.20

(USDA – ERS)

Dairy Cost Of Production By Herd Size

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

1 TO 49 50 TO 99 100 TO 199 200 TO 499 500 ‐999 1000 +

$/cwt

2016 2017 2018

Page 15: WESTERN DAIRY INDUSTRY CHALLENGES - Farm Management · Dairy Farm Receipts 2017 –in Millions of Dollars 834.3 6,561.7 754.2 2,510.30 125.8 1,331.60 496.6 389.8 1,184.5 2,213.20

(Mark Stephenson)

Wisconsin Dairy Farms

Page 16: WESTERN DAIRY INDUSTRY CHALLENGES - Farm Management · Dairy Farm Receipts 2017 –in Millions of Dollars 834.3 6,561.7 754.2 2,510.30 125.8 1,331.60 496.6 389.8 1,184.5 2,213.20

(Frazier, LLP)

ROA by States: 2014 - 2018

‐15%

‐10%

‐5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018% Return on

 Assets

Arizona Idaho New Mexico Southern CA Texas WA & OR

Page 17: WESTERN DAIRY INDUSTRY CHALLENGES - Farm Management · Dairy Farm Receipts 2017 –in Millions of Dollars 834.3 6,561.7 754.2 2,510.30 125.8 1,331.60 496.6 389.8 1,184.5 2,213.20

(Frazier, LLP)

ROA by States: 2015 - 2018

‐12%

‐10%

‐8%

‐6%

‐4%

‐2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

2015 2016 2017 2018

% Return on

 Assets

Arizona Idaho New Mexico Southern CA Texas WA & OR

Page 18: WESTERN DAIRY INDUSTRY CHALLENGES - Farm Management · Dairy Farm Receipts 2017 –in Millions of Dollars 834.3 6,561.7 754.2 2,510.30 125.8 1,331.60 496.6 389.8 1,184.5 2,213.20

(Mark Stephenson)

Average ROA by Herd Size (WI, MI & NY)

‐5

0

5

10

15

20

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

% Return on

 Assets

<200 cows 200‐499 cows 500+ cows

Page 19: WESTERN DAIRY INDUSTRY CHALLENGES - Farm Management · Dairy Farm Receipts 2017 –in Millions of Dollars 834.3 6,561.7 754.2 2,510.30 125.8 1,331.60 496.6 389.8 1,184.5 2,213.20
Page 20: WESTERN DAIRY INDUSTRY CHALLENGES - Farm Management · Dairy Farm Receipts 2017 –in Millions of Dollars 834.3 6,561.7 754.2 2,510.30 125.8 1,331.60 496.6 389.8 1,184.5 2,213.20
Page 21: WESTERN DAIRY INDUSTRY CHALLENGES - Farm Management · Dairy Farm Receipts 2017 –in Millions of Dollars 834.3 6,561.7 754.2 2,510.30 125.8 1,331.60 496.6 389.8 1,184.5 2,213.20

Thank you