welcome the metro phoenix housing market – 1q 2010 plus the forecast update

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Welcome

The Metro Phoenix Housing Market – 1q 2010 plus the Forecast Update

THE METRO PHOENIX HOUSING MARKET – 1ST QUARTER 2010

RLBrownReports

The Metro Phoenix housing market – 1st quarter 2010

Phoenix Market performance Phoenix Builder performance What dynamics changed during the quarter What to expect in the near-term What to expect in the longer term


1q 2010 HOUSING HOT SPOTS


1st q hot spots by permits


S1Q00

_TOT

S3Q00

_TOT

S1Q01

_TOT

S3Q01

_TOT

S1QO2_

TOT

S3Q02

_TOT

S1Q03

_TOT

S3Q03

_TOT

S1Q04

_TOT

S3Q04

_TOT

S1Q05

_TOT

S3Q05

_TOT

S1Q06

_TOT

S3Q06

_TOT

S1Q07

_TOT

S3Q07

_TOT

S1Q08

_TOT

S3Q08

_TOT

S1Q09

_T0T

S3Q09

_TOT

S1Q10

_TOT

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

QUARTERLY NEW HOME CLOSING TRACK - 2000-2010


S1Q00

_TOT

S1Q01

_TOT

S1QO2_

TOT

S1Q03

_TOT

S1Q04

_TOT

S1Q05

_TOT

S1Q06

_TOT

S1Q07

_TOT

S1Q08

_TOT

S1Q09

_T0T

S1Q10

_TOT

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

1ST QTR PHOENIX CLOSING COMPARISON


BUILDER

P2Q00

_TOT

P4Q00

_TOT

P2Q01

_TOT

P4Q01

_TOT

P2Q02

_TOT

P4QO2_

TOT

P2Q03

_TOT

P4Q03

_TOT

P2Q04

_TOT

P4Q04

_TOT

P2Q05

_TOT

P4Q05

_TOT

P2Q06

_TOT

P4Q06

_TOT

P2Q07

_TOT

P4Q07

_TOT

P2Q08

_TOT

P4Q08

_TOT

P2Q09

_TOT

P4Q09

_TOT

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000QUARTERLY NEW HOME PERMIT TRACK - 2000-

2010


P1Q00

_TOT

P1Q01

_TOT

P1Q02

_TOT

P1Q03

_TOT

P1Q04

_TOT

P1Q05

_TOT

P1Q06

_TOT

P1Q07

_TOT

P1Q08

_TOT

P1Q09

_T0T

P1Q10

_TOT

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

1ST QUARTER METRO PHOENIX PERMIT COMPARISON


CENTRAL

MG

NORTH

NW

PIEAST

PIWEST

SDL

SW

TEMPE/CHAN

7

823

116

330

194

154

81

551

104

26

605

86

278

114

118

135

376

89

1ST QTR HOUSING VELOCITY BY AREA

COEYTD PMTSYTD


$900+; 42; 2% $750-900; 4; 0%$600-750; 34; 2%$400-600; 103; 6%

$300-400; 247; 14%

$250-300; 240; 13%

$195-250; 405; 22%

$165-195; 294; 16%

$130-165; 311; 17%

$100-130, 143

$80-100; 3; 0%<$80; 1; 0%

CLOS-INGS BY PRICE RANGE


BEST SELLINGBY PRICE RANGE


900 1,150 1,400 1,650 1,900 2,150 2,400 2,650 2,900 3,150 3,400 3,650 3,900 4,150 4,400 4,650$85,000

$185,000

$285,000

$385,000

$485,000

$585,000

$685,000

$785,000

$885,000

$985,000

1Q 2010 BEST SELLING SUBDIVISIONS - PRODUCT POSITIONING PREPARED WITH MAGIC

THE RESEARCH DEPARTMENT ON YOUR DESKTOP (C)

HIGHLAND HOMESHIGLEY PARK/HIGHLAND

BLANDFORD HOMESTUSCANY VILLAS @ PAINTED MTN (BH)

STARPOINTEARTESIA

PULTE HOMES/DEL WEBBSUN CITY FESTIVAL

PULTE HOMES/DEL WEBBSUN CITY ANTHEM @ MERRILL RANCH

K HOVNANIANWILLOWS (GW)

ROBSON COMMUNITIESPALM VALLEY/PEBBLECREEK

SHEA HOMESVISTANCIA/TRILOGY

FULTON HOMESIRONWOOD CROSSING 1/PARADISE

FULTON HOMESFREEMAN FARMS 2-1/CLASSICS & CARIBBEAN

SHEA HOMESJOHNSON FARMS 1/TRILOGY ENCANTERRA

KB HOMEMUIRFIELD VILLAGE CONDOS

LENNAR HOMESSTETSON VALLEY/HORIZON

FULTON HOMESIRONWOOD CROSSING 1/MEDITERRANEAN

ASHTON WOODS HOMESLAKEVIEW TRLS @ MORRISON RCH/PECAN GROVES

House Sqft.

Bas

e H

ou

se P

rice


PRODUCT POSITIONING – BEST PERMITS 1Q 2010


TOP 10 BUILDERS CLOSINGSDR HORTON 142

FULTON HOMES 134

PULTE HOMES 132

TAYLOR MORRISON 108

SHEA HOMES 103

MERITAGE HOMES 98

PULTE/DEL WEBB 97

LENNAR HOMES 73

BLANDFORD HOMES 72

BEAZER HOMES 56

81 BUILDERS ACTIVE – 50 BUILDERS WITH <3 CLOSINGS


BUILDER 1Q PERMITS

D R HORTON 330RICHMOND AMERICAN 209MERITAGE HOMES 137PULTE HOMES 132SHEA HOMES 125BLANDFORD HOMES 113FULTON HOMES 112TAYLOR MORRISON 102PULTE HOMES/DEL WEBB 99KB HOME 92


Jan-

04

Jul-0

4

Jan-

05

Jul-0

5

Jan-

06

Jul-0

6

Jan-

07

Jul-0

7

Jan-

08

Jul-0

8

Jan-

09

Jul-0

9

Jan-

100

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

Resale Housing Activity


Jan-

04

Jul-0

4

Jan-

05

Jul-0

5

Jan-

06

Jul-0

6

Jan-

07

Jul-0

7

Jan-

08

Jul-0

8

Jan-

09

Jul-0

9

Jan-

100

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

MEDIAN PRICE NEW VS RESALE

MED NEW PRICE MED RES PRICE


Jan-

04

Apr-0

4

Jul-0

4

Oct-0

4

Jan-

05

Apr-0

5

Jul-0

5

Oct-0

5

Jan-

06

Apr-0

6

Jul-0

6

Oct-0

6

Jan-

07

Apr-0

7

Jul-0

7

Oct-0

7

Jan-

08

Apr-0

8

Jul-0

8

Oct-0

8

Jan-

09

Apr-0

9

Jul-0

9

Oct-0

9

Jan-

100

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

ESTIMATED NEW HOME INVENTORY TRACK

PERMITS BY MONTH CLOSINGS BY MONTH


Jan-

04

May

-04

Sep-

04

Jan-

05

May

-05

Sep-

05

Jan-

06

May

-06

Sep-

06

Jan-

07

May

-07

Sep-

07

Jan-

08

May

-08

Sep-

08

Jan-

09

May

-09

Sep-

09

Jan-

100

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

ESTIMATED NEW HOME INVENTORY TRACK

PERMITS BY MONTH CLOSINGS BY MONTH


CHANGING MARKET DYNAMICS….

THE CHANGING FACE OF FORECLOSURES BAILOUT PLANS CREDIT AND INTEREST RATES LOT INVENTORIES AND BUILDER FINANCING BANK FAILURES AND CRE DEFAULTS CONSUMER SPENDING AND CONFIDENCE AN IMPROVING ECONOMY


Our near-term forecast Hype and reality collide The politics of the day and the impact on

housing – cash flow is King A regional leadership crisis


Our longer view of the market Jobs Foreclosure relief Credit The lure of the West


The ongoing search for new customers ….

Alternatives - Waiting for them to show up

Or Capturing the home buyers of the next 18 months … resale/short sales/reo sales VS the new home!

That takes a sound strategy ….

New Home Closings by Transaction is Now Available! Call Greg for Details – 480.614.0211


Thanks for joining us and for using our housing market data and analysis.

Call us with your questions and your needs!

rl brown and greg burger480-614-0211

[email protected]

www.rlbrownreports.com

welcome the metro phoenix housing market – 1q 2010 plus the forecast update

Documents

metro phoenix housing

quarter closings

market update

new home market

q slide

q hot spots

housing hot spotsthanks

track of closings