Weekly Review and Outlook

Weekly Reviewweek commencing 31/11/15

Sell Euro

Last Week’s Key Themes

Sell NZD

Last Week’s News Events

Last Week’s News Events

Last Week’s News Events

EURUSD D1

entry and current stop

initial stop

GBPNZD D1

entry

GBPNZD D1

entry

stop

Weekly Review

Weekly Review

Weekly Outlookweek commencing 7/12/15

USDX D1Euro strength dominates.

USDX D1

WTI D1

S&P500

S&P500

RISK ON

This Week’s News Events

This Week’s News Events

Currency SummaryUSDThe USD is the strongest currency in the long term. Fed holds door open for December hike. Markets say 79% chance of hike in Dec. EURBearish due to QE. Portugal hovering like a bad smell. Draghi disappoints markets hugely on 3/12. Euro surges. Still fundamentally weak, but positive sentiment may last for some time.

GBPStrong. Rate increase expected mid 2016. GBP gets caught up in USD weakness and is sold off. Carney says wage growth insufficient to propel inflation to 2%. Lower inflation now forecast by BoE. Institutions see rate hike delay from Q1 to Q3 2016. Earnings missed in Nov.

NZDWeak. More rate reductions expected. RBNZ say recent NZD appreciation dampening inflation, making hike more likely. Markets say 50% chance of rate reduction in Dec.

CADWeak. Heavily correlated to WTI crude oil price.

JPYWeak due to massive QE. All eyes on oil price now to bring inflation up to 2% target in H2 2016. Kuroda says current policy sufficient. Now alluding to weakness in CPI.

CHFWeak due to negative interest rates. Swiss central bank often intervenes to weaken the currency. I have never traded this currency and probably never will. May have to reduce interest rates to deal with Euro strength. Next mtg 10/12. AUDNeutral. Central bank dovish at Aug rate announcement seeing no need for more rate reduction. RBA’s Stevens remains confident all is on track. Stevens remains neutral but says any change will be to reduce interest rates.Great employment nos in Nov lessen any chance of rate reduction. Neutral

GBPNZD D1

GBPCAD D1

USDCHF D1

Euro sentimentNZD rate decision (sell NZD)CHF rate decisionCaution

This Week’s Key Themes