07 APRIL – 11 APRIL 2014

W E E K L Y

R

E

P

O

R

T

Blow by Blow

On

Bullions,

Base metals,

Energy…

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MAJOR EVENTS

Gold rose more than 1 percent on Friday, its biggest daily gain in nearly a month, after

data showing brisk U.S. employment growth in March unleashed heavy short-covering

by bullion investors who had feared the job figures would sharply exceed Wall Street's

expectations. In a brisk turnaround from heavy selling in the days before the release

of the data, prices were up 1 percent for the week, the first increase in three weeks.

The Labor Department said U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 192,000 jobs last

month, slightly below economists' estimate of 200,000. Some in the bullion market

had expected an even stronger jobs report. Everyone had been saying the job number

was going to be so much better, but the economy didn't improve the way investors

had expected, and that's why the short-sellers are covering their positions.

The figure eased fears of an early interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve, lifting

assets particularly sensitive to interest rate changes such as gold and U.S. Treasury

bonds. U.S. COMEX gold futures for June delivery settled up $18.90 at $1,303.50 an

ounce. Turnover was not particularly strong, however, with volume at 130,000 lots,

about 30 percent below the 30-day average of 200,000 contracts.

There is only one certainty in Ukraine: The energy sector must and will be

transformed, and how long this takes will depend on who ends up in the driver's seat

and how serious they are about becoming a part of Europe and reducing dependence

on Russia. But by then, investors will have missed the boat.

The driving factor for any energy investor in Ukraine is the pricing environment.

There is nowhere else in Europe—or some would even argue in the world—where

you are going to get significant access to resources and potential resources for the

price. Gas is selling at $13.66/Mcf, while it costs $4-$5 to produce and operate. That

means producers are netting anywhere between $8 and $9/Mcf.

Whether it likes it or not, kicking and screaming, Ukraine will have to transform its

energy sector, if it hopes to see promised IMF money. Kiev will have to start selling

off assets and making the industry much more transparent. Greater transparency

coupled with an already-favorable gas price environment, will make Ukraine one of

the best places to be over the next 5-7 years.

Ukraine's energy

sector

transformation

and new

investment.

Base metals to

trade on a mixed

note in April on

weak

manufacturing

data.

Base metals are expected to trade on a mixed note in April on the back of weak

manufacturing data from the biggest consumer, China and USA. Also, mixed

manufacturing data from the Euro Zone and weak manufacturing and construction

data from the UK will exert downside pressure on prices. Also, economic growth in the

China which has led to increase in concerns over the demand for the metals will act as

a negative factor. With strong demand side fundamentals for Nickel, prices will trade

on a positive note taking cues from the supply crunch that will finally hit the biggest

consumer, China as stockpiles will be put to use. Also, concerns of supply disruption

from Indonesia and Russia will continue to add upside to prices.

Copper prices will also change course given the shutdown of mines and earthquake

concerns in the world biggest producer, Chile that will give rise to supply disruptions.

Also, China is expected to add monetary stimulus to support growth in the shattering

economy, thereby brightening prospects for the red metal. Aluminium prices are also

expected to cushion sharp downside or even reversal given the capacity cuts in the US

biggest mine, Alcoa. On the domestic bourses, appreciation in the Rupee will exert

downside pressure on the base metals prices.

Gold rises over 1

pct on short-

covering after

U.S. payroll data.

E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R

DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS

Apr 8 12:30am Consumer Credit m/m 14.3B 13.7B

5:00pm NFIB Small Business Index 92.3 91.4

7:30pm JOLTS Job Openings 3.99M 3.97M

11:00pm FOMC Member Kocherlakota Speaks

Apr 9 12:15am FOMC Member Plosser Speaks

7:30pm Wholesale Inventories m/m 0.5% 0.6%

8:00pm Crude Oil Inventories -2.4M

10:31pm 10-y Bond Auction 2.73/2.9

11:30pm FOMC Meeting Minutes

Apr 10 4:30am FOMC Member Tarullo Speaks

6:00pm Unemployment Claims 314K 326K

6:00pm Import Prices m/m 0.2% 0.9%

Day 1 ALL G20 Meetings

8:00pm Natural Gas Storage

10:31pm 30-y Bond Auction 3.63/2.4

11:30pm Federal Budget Balance -127.5B -193.5B

Apr 11 6:00pm PPI m/m 0.1% -0.1%

6:00pm Core PPI m/m 0.2% -0.2%

7:25pm Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 81.2 80.0

7:25pm Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations 3.2%

Day 2 ALL G20 Meetings

Day 1 ALL IMF Meetings

Apr 12 Day 2 ALL IMF Meetings

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

28000 27600 27100 28500 28900 29410

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

42400 40650 38500 44000 45200 46500

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX GOLD last week rebounded from

its deeper support levels towards

23.6% retracement. Now, on higher

side if it maintains above 28500 then

next resistance is seen around 38.2%

retracement i.e. 28900. On other hand

if it sustains at lower levels and trades

below 28000 then bearishness may

take it towards the support range of

27750-27500.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to buy

above 28500 for the target of 29000

with stop loss of 27900.

PIVOT TABLE

G O L D

PIVOT TABLE

S I L V E R

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX SILVER showed sideways

movement on daily charts and made

four consecutive higher highs sessions

which indicates weakness is still

prevailing in it. Now, if it sustain below

42400 then next support will be seen

around 40500. On higher side 44000

will act as important resistance level

maintaining above which may lead it

towards the next resistance level of

45000.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this

point of time is to sell below 42400 for

targets of 41000-40500, with stop loss of

44000.

C R U D E O I L

C O P P E R

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

6040 5930 5790 6160 6330 6550

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

395 379.80 366.35 410 421.50 435.60

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX Copper on daily charts witnessed

consolidation phase and unable to

close above its important resistance

i.e. 408. Now, if it maintains above 410

then only some correction may be

seen on higher side upto the

resistance level of 420. On other hand

if it trades below the support level of

400 then further bearishness can be

seen which may drag it towards the

next support level of 392-385.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to buy

above 6150 for the target of 6300, with

stop loss of 5950.

PIVOT TABLE

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX Crude oil last week showed

sideways movement, unable to close

below 5950 and took resistance of

6150. If the downward movements

continues then it may find support in

the range of 5900-5950. On other hand

if global cues supports then strength

can be seen if it sustains and close

above 6150 then it may lead towards

6330.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to sell

on highs, with stop loss of 412 for the

targets of 392-385.

PIVOT TABLE

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