13 OCT- 17 OCT 2014

W E E K L Y

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P

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Buy on fear, sell on greed.

Buy on the rumor, sell on the news.

The trend is your friend.

Amateurs want to be right.

Professionals want to make money.

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REFERENCE RATE

(USD) 61.1624

REPO RATE 8%

REVERSE REPO 7%

CRR 4%

INFLATION 3.74%

KEY RATES As on 10/10/2014

MARKET EVENTS MARKET OUTLOOK

Indian Rupee gained around 0.4%, its

first weekly gain in five in which it

posted single day gain in nearly 2

months on Thursday after hitting the

highest level in more than two weeks

after US Fed’s Sept policy minutes

suggested it was in no hurry to raise

interest rates. Another factor for

gains tumbling global markets raised

fears about foreign investments. But

on Friday the rupee was hit by

tumbling global shares, with

domestic indexes falling 1.3 %, their

biggest falls in 2-1/2 weeks. Global

factors and data will remain key for

the rupee, with India set to post IIP

after the close of markets and

consumer inflation data on Monday.

Indian rupee falls but posts 1st

weekly gain in five.

Dollar Snaps Record Weekly

Rally as Fed Rate Increase Bets

Pared.

Yen rises on global economy

worries.

China's Yuan slips ahead of

likely weak data

CURRENCIES PREVIOUS

RATE

CURRENT

RATE % CHANGE

USDINR 61.9275 61.5325 -0.63

EURINR 78.0025 77.9350 -0.08

GBPINR 100.2250 98.7850 -1.43

JPYINR 56.3725 57.1450 1.37

91

USDINR

EURINR

USDINR last week also found support of the trend line on daily charts and showed strong pull back

but closed the week in red. On higher side, resistance is seen in the range of 61.8000-62.0000. On

lower side, if it closes below 61.3500 then it may drag towards the major support around the

trend line i.e. near 61.1000.

EURINR last week also faced resistance around the trend line as shown in chart above moving in

tight range and closed the week on a flat note. It needs a closing above 78.2000 to gain certain

strength otherwise sharp selling can be seen below the major support level of 77.6000 on daily

charts.

CURRENCIES S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 USDINR 61.1000

60.8000 60.5000 61.8000 62.3000 62.8000

EURINR 77.6000 77.2000 76.8000 78.3000 78.8000 79.3000

GBPINR 98.3000 97.9000 97.5000 99.4000 99.8000

100.3000

JPYINR 56.6000 56.3000 55.8000 57.4000

57.7000 58.0000

PIVOT TABLE

DATE TIME COUNTRY EVENT BLOOMBERG

ESTIMATE

PREVIOUS

LEVEL

13-OCT-2014 5:30

PM INDIA CPI (YOY) (AUG) 7.20% 7.80%

14-OCT-2014 12:00

NOON INDIA WPI (YOY) (SEPT) 3.30% 3.74%

15-OCT-2014 7:00

PM US

Core Retail Sales

m/m 0.2% 0.3%

16-OCT-2014 7:00

PM US

Unemployment

Claims 286k 287k

INTERNATIONAL UPDATES

Pound Overvalued Complaint of Minister Cable Denied by

History.

Canadian Dollar Strengthens Against Peers as Jobless Rate

Drops.

Real Weakens Most in Emerging Markets Ahead of Runoff.

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