weekly commodity report (18th - skycommodities.com · weekly commodity report 18th-feb-2019...

1 Commodity Weekly Report

Weekly Commodity Report (18th-Feb-2019)

2

Fundamental News: Gold is at an inflection point as traders muse

over what's more important to the market -- a U.S.-China trade

deal that could knock bullion off its $1,300 perch or a spike in

Brexit/Venezulea worries that may result in new 2019 highs.

Technical Outlook: Gold has remains in a range bound trade in

between 32465 to 33777. So, Buy near 33315 with TGT 33431 &

33574 SL 33200 or else Short below 33084 with TGT 32969 &

32826 SL 33200.

Data to Watch: US FOMC Meeting Minutes, US Core Durable

Goods Orders m/m, US Durable Goods Orders m/m, US Philly Fed

Manufacturing Index, US Unemployment Claims, CANADA BOC

Gov Poloz Speaks, CANADA Core Retail Sales m/m, CANADA Retail

Sales m/m, US FOMC Member Williams Speaks, EUR ECB Presi-

dent Draghi Speaks, US FOMC Member Clarida Speaks.

Weekly Commodity Report

18th-Feb-2019

Commodity Weekly Report

R1 33431 R2 33574 R3 33805

S1 32969 S2 32826 S3 32595

MCX GOLD Daily Chart

GOLD Commentary

Weekly View

Medium term View

MCX SILVER Daily Chart SILVER Commentary

Fundamental News: The problem is the various conflicting

interests in that path, i.e. a trade war resolution that would

reduce the need for a hedge, versus a potential flare up in Brexit/

Venezuela that might drive more investors toward precious

metals.

Technical Outlook: Silver remains in a range bound trade. Go long

near 39913 with TGT of 40066 & 40256 and maintain SL of 39759

or else Sell below 39606 with TGT 39452 & 39262 and keep SL of

39759 level.



Manufacturing Index, US Unemployment Claims, CANADA BOC

Gov Poloz Speaks, CANADA Core Retail Sales m/m, CANADA Retail

Sales m/m, US FOMC Member Williams Speaks, EUR ECB Presi-

dent Draghi Speaks, US FOMC Member Clarida Speaks.

Weekly View

Medium term View

R1 40066 R2 40256 R3 40563

S1 39452 S2 39262 S3 38955

3

Fundamental News: The bullish dominos keep falling for crude

oil in 2019 with demand stable despite other economic indicators

tipping into the red with sanctions and production cuts the world

over.

Technical Outlook: Crude Oil may expect a momentum trade.. Go

long near 3923 With TGT of 3986 & 4063 and keep Sl of 3860 or

else short near 3793 with TGT of 3735 & 3658 and keep stop loss

of 3860.



Manufacturing Index, US Unemployment Claims, US Crude Oil

Inventories, CANADA BOC Gov Poloz Speaks, CANADA Retail Sales

m/m, US FOMC Member Williams Speaks, EUR ECB President

Draghi Speaks, US FOMC Member Clarida Speaks.


21st-May-2018


R1 3986 R2 4063 R3 4198

S1 3735 S2 3658 S3 3532

MCX CRUDE OIL Daily Chart CRUDE OIL Commentary

Weekly View

Medium term View

MCX NATURAL GAS Daily Chart NATURAL GAS Commentary

Fundamental News:

The March natural gas contract rebounded a couple percent today

as weather models began adding back demand and weather-

adjusted demand continued to impress.

Technical Outlook:

Natural Gas has remains in negative bias and any surge seen to

utilize a selling opportunity. Go Short below 184 with TGT of

183.2 & 182.3 and keep stop loss of 184.7 Or else Go long near

185.4 with TGT of 186.2 & 188.6 and Keep SL of 184.7 level.

Data to Watch: US Natural Gas Storage. Weekly View

Medium term View

R1 186.2 R2 188.6 R3 191.3

S1 183.2 S2 180.8 S3 179.1


18th-Feb-2019

4

Fundamental News: Base metals prices on the London Metal

Exchange were higher across the board at the close of trading on

Friday February 15, with market sentiment continuing to improve

amid US-China trade talks, while participants continue to short-

cover after last week’s price rally.

Technical Outlook: Copper has witnessed a mild positive rally. So,

go long near 440.6 with TGT of 442.9 & 445.75 and maintain Stop

loss of 438.35 or else go short below 436.05 with TGT 433.75 &

430.95 and keep sl of 438.35 level.

Data to Watch: GBP Unemployment Rate, EUR German ZEW Eco-

nomic Sentiment, EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI, GBP Public Sec-

tor Net Borrowing, EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts,

US FOMC Meeting Minutes, US Core Durable Goods Orders m/

m, US Durable Goods Orders m/m, US Philly Fed Manufacturing

Index, US Unemployment Claims, , EUR ECB President Draghi

Speaks, US FOMC Member Clarida Speaks.


21st-May-2018


R1 442.9 R2 445.75 R3 450.3

S1 433.75 S2 430.95 S3 426.4

MCX COPPER Daily Chart

COPPER Commentary

Weekly View

Medium term View

MCX ALUMINIUM Daily Chart ALUMINIUM Commentary

Fundamental News: Section 232 tariffs on aluminium and steel

raised $3.6 billion in their first nine months, and revenues for the

last two months are likely to push that figure up by around

another $1 billion, US government data shows.

Technical Outlook: Aluminium may expect a mild recovery until

close below 130.1 level. So, go short near 131 with TGT of 130.35

& 129.5 keep SL of 131.7 & Go long near 132.35 with TGT of

133.05 & 135.35 and keep Sl of 131.7.

Data to Watch: GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y, GBP

Unemployment Rate, EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment, EUR

Flash Manufacturing PMI, GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing, EUR

ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, US FOMC Meeting

Minutes, US Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, US Durable Goods

Orders m/m, US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, US

Unemployment Claims, US FOMC Member Williams Speaks, EUR

ECB President Draghi Speaks, US FOMC Member Clarida Speaks.

Weekly View

Medium term View

R1 133.05 R2 135.35 R3 140.7

S1 129.5 S2 128.15 S3 126.6


18th-Feb-2019

5

Technical Outlook: Lead may expect a momentum trade. So, go

long near 147.4 with TGT of 148.65 & 150.2 and keep SL of 146.2.



Flash Manufacturing PMI, GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing, EUR

ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, US FOMC Meeting

Minutes, US Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, US Durable Goods

Orders m/m, US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, US

Unemployment Claims, EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks.


21st-May-2018


MCX LEAD Daily Chart

LEAD Commentary

Weekly View

Medium term View

MCX ZINC Daily Chart ZINC Commentary

Technical Outlook: Zinc futures closed above $2,600 per tonne

and continued to trade in a volatile trend after soaring to their

highest level since August 2018 at $2,800 per tonne last week. So,

long near 189.85 with TGT of 191.3 & 193.15 and SL of 188.35.

Data to Watch: EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment, EUR Flash

Manufacturing PMI, GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing, EUR ECB

Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, US FOMC Meeting Minutes,

US Core Durable Goods Orders m/m.

Weekly View

Medium term View

R1 148.65 R2 150.15 R3 152.6

S1 143.75 S2 142.25 S3 139.75

R1 191.3 R2 193.15 R3 196.15

S1 185.35 S2 183.5 S3 180.55

MCX NICKEL Daily Chart NICKEL Commentary

Technical Outlook: Nickel has witnessed a short covering rally.

So, go long near 888.2 with TGT of 896.3 & 906.4 SL of 880.1

level.



Flash Manufacturing PMI, GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing.

Weekly View

Medium term View

R1 896.3 R2 906.4 R3 922.7

S1 863.8 S2 853.7 S3 837.5


18th-Feb-2019


Weekly MCX COMMODITY CHANGE

ECONOMIC CALENDER

Indices Close Change %

GOLD 33384.00 142 0.43

SILVER 39962.00 -143 -0.36

CRUDE OIL 3951.00 191 5.08

NATURAL GAS 186.60 1.7 0.92

COPPER 441.80 -0.9 -0.20

ALUMINIUM 131.15 -2.55 -1.91

LEAD 147.65 -0.95 -0.64

ZINC 190.45 -2.3 -1.19

NICKEL 881.00 -14.7 -1.64

Country Economic Event Forecast Previous Date &Time

JAPAN Current Account 0.23T -0.78T 9th June (5.20 AM)

JAPAN Final GDP q/q 1.4% 1.5% 9th June (5.20 AM)

CANADA Housing Starts 185K 195K 9th June (5.45 PM)

AUD RBA Gov Stevens Speaks - - 9th June (9.00 PM)

GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y - 4.2% 10th June (4.31 AM)

JAPAN Tertiary Industry Activity m/m -3.3% 2.4% 10th June (5.20 AM)

AUD Home Loans m/m 0.3% -0.9% 10th June (7.00 AM)

CHINA CPI y/y 2.4% 1.8% 10th June (7.00 AM)

CHINA PPI y/y -1.5% -2.0% 10th June (7.00 AM)

EUR French Industrial Production m/m 0.3% -0.7% 10th June (12.15 PM)

CHINA New Loans 750B 775B 10th — 14th June

GBP Manufacturing Production m/m 0.4% 0.5% 10th June (2.00 PM)


21st-May-2018

Source : Forex Factory


18th-Feb-2019


ECONOMIC CALENDER


21st-May-2018



18th-Feb-2019



21st-May-2018

RESEARCHED & PREPARED BY

B.KESAVAMOORTHY— SENIOR RESEARCH MANAGER

EMAIL ID: [email protected]

CONTACT NO: 0422-4700840

LAL’S

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18th-Feb-2019

weekly commodity report (18th - skycommodities.com · weekly commodity report 18th-feb-2019...

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