webinar: crossing the chasm
TRANSCRIPT
Webinar: Crossing the ChasmDriving Adoption of Small Cells7 December 2015
Crossing the chasm: Small cell industry 2015
Alan Law, Chair, Small Cell Forum
November 2015
Crossing the Chasm:
Innovators Mass Adopters
November 2015
Crossing the Chasm: 2015 Milestones
Innovators
11.5m deployed
Mass Adopters
November 2015
Crossing the Chasm: 2015 Milestones
Innovators
11.5m deployed
Residential/SoHo +3m
Mass Adopters
November 2015
Crossing the Chasm: 2015 Milestones
Innovators
11.5m deployed
Residential/SoHo +3m
Enterprise +110%
Mass Adopters
November 2015
Crossing the Chasm: 2015 Milestones
Innovators
11.5m deployed
Residential/SoHo +3m
Enterprise +110%
Urban deployments+400%
Mass Adopters
By 2020:• Annual deployment expected to be >10m
per year• Networks will have x7 more Small Cells
than Macro sites• New deployment models in place – only
20% of Small Cells will be managed by MNO’s
• 40% of small cells deployed in hyper-dense environments (150 per km2)
42,500,000
6,400,000
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
45,000,000
Small cell Macrocell
units
Small cells will be at the heart of future networks
November 2015
7x more Small Cells
than Macro by
2020
This is a real turning point: Small Cells now own the debate
Networks continue to grow, automate, and evolve enabling mass-market scale
November 2015
Conventional small cell Virtualized small cell
MAC
FAPIP5 & P7
PHY
VendorExt nFAPI
P5 & P7
nFAPIP5 & P7
PHY
VendorExt
MAC
RF
VendorExt
nFAPI Interworking
Grow and Automate Evolve
Today’s generation Future generation
Ad hoc, opportunistic A well-planned second layer
Small numbers Dense
Manually organized SON
Homogeneous cells Move to Virtualization
3G or LTE Multimode including Wi-Fi
Same spectrum as macro
Many bands – including licence-exempt
Single operator Neutral host or shared ownership
The Why? becomes How?
November 2015
Delivering needed industry knowledge through our new work program
Enterprise small cells
License-exempt spectrum
HetNet and SON
Virtualization
Multi-operator support
Delivering 5G and IoT
November 2015
Small Cell Forum – Priorities and Workplan
Multi-operator
2013 2014 2015 2016 20172012
WISI
LAASC Wi-Fi with WBA
HomeEnterprise
UrbanRural and Remote
Virtualization
License-exempt
HetNet & SON
R1R2
R3 R4R5
R5.1
R7
definition of nFAPIChina Mobile
Cisco, ip.access
Vodafone, Qualcomm
5G, IoTTruphone, ip.access
AT&T, Ericsson, Airhop
Reliance Jio, Huawei
EnterpriseOrange
Spidercloud, Huawei
R2 Kick-off
Deliverables Defined
Release
R6
Small Cell StatusNovember 2015
Joe Madden, Principal Analyst
About Mobile Experts� Market Research focused on wireless
� 6 Analysts + sales and office staff� Based in Silicon Valley, Ottawa, NY, London, Boston� Analysts are 20-year experts in their respective topics
� Strategic Market Analysis� Macro Base Stations� Small Cells/DAS/Wi-Fi� 5G� RF for Mobile Devices and IoT
Small Cell Shipments
Small Cell Shipments
Small Cell Shipments
Small Cell Shipments
Small Cell Shipments
Small Cell Shipments
Small Cell Shipment Forecast
Small Cell Revenue Forecast
Enterprise small cell driversCaroline Gabriel
Research Director, Rethink Technology Research
Drivers old and new• Survey of 56 operators deploying or
considering small cells• New drivers for operators – in
enterprise first• Less focus on cost and logistics• New drivers relate to • new revenue opportunities to
justify 4G, eg enterprise, IoT• new architectures eg try vRAN
first with new small cells• new competitive landscape eg
WiFi-enabled MSOs• Require greater scale and new
architecture
2014 2015
Reduced cost of data delivery Reduced cost of data delivery
Overall capacity increase Overall capacity increase
Support new apps and revenues Support new apps and revenues
Fill capacity holes Improved indoor services
Improved coverage Full context awareness
Location awareness Harness new spectrum bands
Reduced network TCO Improved coverage inc rural
WiFi integration Support IoT services
Support personalization Step towards virtualization
Harness new spectrum Response to WiFi-only
Source: Rethink Research operator survey 2015
Enterprise drivers are different
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Reduced cost ofdata delivery
Overall capacityincrease
Support new appsand revenues
Improved indoorservices
Location awareness Harness newspectrum bands
Improved coverageinc rural
Support IoTservices
Step towardsvirtualization
Response to WiFi-only
% p
laci
ng in
top
3
Global Enterprise
Enterprise opportunity for MNOs• High level of interest and awareness (iGR
study)• Densify mobile voice/data networks via in-
building deployments of small cells• Expand MNO revenue base to include
additional services • Assist enterprises by reducing costs,
particularly of those tasks associated with mobility.
• Assist enterprises which want to leverage the cloud to reduce capital spending on IT hardware/software
• Leverage enterprise networks – wired and wireless – to provide better in-building coverage and seamless cellular voice.
Source: Cisco/iGR
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Most aware Most interested Somewhat aware Neutral
% o
f ent
erpr
ises
5K+ employees 1k-5K employees 500-999
Revenues rely on new value chain
23 22 22 21 21
30 25 22 20 18
3227
22 21 19
1526
34 38 42
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
% o
f cel
ls de
ploy
ed
MNO deployed and managed Enterprise/SI deployed and managed
MNO deployed/enterprise managed Cloud managed
Source: Rethink 2015
Next challenges
• Fragmented use cases require flexible architectures
• Enterprise an urgent focus for Forum work plan
• Multi-operator support, SCaaS• Virtualization• Densification and SON• WiFi integration and LE spectrum• Enterprise IoT
9
16
11
9511
10
3
8
9
6
1
2
Finance
Retail
Government
Local government
Utilities and energy
Transport
Healthcare
Manufacturing
Hospitality and catering
Entertainment media arts andsport
Academic and education
Source: Rethink 2015
Important new report includes data from:• Market Status Report, Mobile Experts,
November 2015 – available exclusively to SCF members
• Potential for small cells infrastructure-as-a-service in the US, iGR, Q3 2015
• Small cell operator survey Q3 2015, Rethink Technology Research
Crossing the Chasm: available from scf.io
November 2015
November 2015
• Small Cell Forum has been successful in establishing deployments and growth – enable the ‘HOW’
• Small cells are the primary method to address the capacity needs of the future
• We are driving critical work for the industry as part of our Release Program (scf.io)
• Join us: Shape the future of the small cells and the integrated HetNet
Join us – seize the opportunity
