weather normalization presented by john avina abraxas energy consulting
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Weather Normalization Presented by John Avina Abraxas Energy Consulting. Why How Reading Bills to Understand Building Humidity Benchmarking with Normalization. OUTLINE. Retail in Wisconsin. Retail in Wisconsin. Average Weather…. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Weather Normalization
Presented by
John Avina
Abraxas Energy Consulting
1. Why2. How3. Reading Bills to Understand Building4. Humidity5. Benchmarking with Normalization
OUTLINE
Retail in Wisconsin
Retail in Wisconsin
• Average Weather….– Average of all the high and low temperatures
during the billing period
Retail in Wisconsin
Retail in Wisconsin
Retail in Wisconsin
Retail in Wisconsin
Retail in Wisconsin
Retail in Florida
Retail in Florida
Retail in Florida
Cooling Balance Point = 60
Retail in Florida
Cooling Balance Point = 67
Retail in Florida
Retail in Minnesota
Retail in Minnesota
College in Boston
College in Boston
Retail in San Francisco
Recap: Why Use Weather?
International Performance Measurement and Verification Protocol
•
M and V Standards
www.ipmvp.org
Federal Energy Management Guidelines•
M and V Standards
http://www.eere.energy.gov/femp/pdfs/26265_seci.pdf
ASHRAE Guideline 14•
M and V Standards
http://www.ashrae.org
IPMVP M&V Options4 Methods of M & V4 Methods of M & V
•Option A - Partially Measured Retrofit IsolationOption A - Partially Measured Retrofit Isolation
•Option B - Retrofit IsolationOption B - Retrofit Isolation
•Option C - Whole (or Part) Building (Utility Bills)Option C - Whole (or Part) Building (Utility Bills)
•Option D – Calibrated SimulationOption D – Calibrated Simulation
Methods chosen based upon budget, need for accuracy, ECMs installed, Methods chosen based upon budget, need for accuracy, ECMs installed, Metering SetupMetering Setup
• Option A - Partially Measured Retrofit IsolationOption A - Partially Measured Retrofit Isolation– Partial short-term/continuous measurements – Partial short-term/continuous measurements –
some but not all stipulatedsome but not all stipulated– For Separable ECM Savings Determination - For Separable ECM Savings Determination -
Lighting Lighting
IPMVP M&V Options
• Option B - Retrofit IsolationOption B - Retrofit Isolation– Full short-term or continuous field measurement - Full short-term or continuous field measurement -
no stipulationsno stipulations– For Separable ECM Savings Determination - HVAC For Separable ECM Savings Determination - HVAC
subsystemsubsystem
IPMVP M&V Options
IPMVP M&V Options
• Option C - Whole (or Part) BuildingOption C - Whole (or Part) Building– Full continuous energy use and demand Full continuous energy use and demand
measurement during Baseline and Post- Retrofit measurement during Baseline and Post- Retrofit Periods Periods
– Collective Savings of all ECMs for Area monitored by Collective Savings of all ECMs for Area monitored by a Single Metera Single Meter
IPMVP M&V Options
• Option D – Calibrated SimulationOption D – Calibrated Simulation– Computer-based simulation of energy use of Computer-based simulation of energy use of
building componentsbuilding components– Simulation Calibration, Considerable skills, Simulation Calibration, Considerable skills,
Costly ???? Costly ????
Suppose an ESCO chooses Option C, Utility Bill Analysis...
Why would an ESCO want to correct for weather
Why Not keep it simple and just compare pre and post retrofit bills
Billions of Dollars of savings are tracked using Option C
M&V and Utility Bill Analysis
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
June 2004 June 2005
kWh
Suppose an ESCO expected this from a Chiller Retrofit….
Savings
Why Utility Bills Don’t Why Utility Bills Don’t Always Yield Savings?Always Yield Savings?
…and instead got this….
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
June 2004 June 2005
kWh
Increase
Why Utility Bills Don’t Why Utility Bills Don’t Always Yield Savings?Always Yield Savings?
Why Aren’t There Any Savings?
What Do We Tell the Customer?
Will I Keep My Job?
Will I Get My Bonus?
Seen Him Before?Seen Him Before?
How Can They Show Savings This Year?
The ESCOs’ Dilemma
How Can They Show Savings This Year?
The ESCOs’ Dilemma
Real Data
Cooling kWh ~ CDD
Which means…
double CDD
double Cooling kWh
Retail in Minnesota
How to Perform Weather Normalization
Start with Bills and Weather Data
Determine How Bills Vary with Weather
Electric used to Heat & CoolElectric used to Cool Only
Using Weather toUnderstand Bills
Balance PointNon-Temperature Sensitive Usage
Cooling Balance Point is the Temperature at which the Building Starts to Cool.
Low Cooling Balance Points indicate Outside Air is NOT being used for Free Cooling.
Temperature Sensitive Usage
Estimate Balance Point
Balance Point
Non-Temperature Sensitive Usage
Temperature Sensitive Usage
Balance Point is the Temperature at which the Building Starts to Heat.
Estimate Balance Point
1. For each day in Billing period…
CDDi=(Ave Outside Temp - Bal Point Temp) X 1day +
Where Ave Outside Temp is the average between high and low temperature for the day.
And Bal Point Temp (balance point temperature) is the balance point found in the previous slide.
You cannot have negative CDDs
2. CDDBilling Period = (CDDi)
Calculate Cooling Degree Days
1. For each day in Billing period…
HDDi=(Bal Point Temp - Ave Outside Temp) X 1day +
Where Ave Outside Temp is the average between high and low temperature for the day.
And Bal Point Temp (balance point temperature) is the balance point found in the previous slide.
You cannot have negative HDDs
2. HDDBilling Period = (HDDi)
Calculate Heating Degree Days
Perform a Linear Regression between Energy Usage and CDD (and/or) HDD. Find the best fit line.
This is the Cooling Balance Point.
Cooling Balance Point is the temperature at which the building starts cooling.
Weather Normalization
Normalization Tools
You can use Excel or Canned Software
There are Several Desktop applications that handle weather Normalization, one of which specializes in it.
Your Fit Line Has an Equation, which is called the Baseline Equation
y = mx + b
which could be rephrased into something like this
kWh = 61.986 x #CDD + 1872.7 x # days
Understanding the Baseline
Energy Balance
Use the Regression Coefficients to True Up Energy Balance
Your Fit Line Has an Equation, which is called the Baseline Equation
Baseline Equation = Best Fit Line ~ Base Year Bills
So now we can work with the Baseline Equation and throw out the bills. We don’t need them any more.
Baseline Equation represents your energy usage patterns during your Base Year
Understanding the Baseline
What Good is the Equation?
We take a Current Year Bill,
determine # of days in the bill,
determine # of CDD (or HDD)
and plug those into the Baseline Equation.
Baseline kWh = 61.986 x #CDD + 2872.7 x # days7/21/05 Bill
100,000 kWh
700 CDD
30 days
Baseline kWh = (61.986 x 700) + (2872.7 x 30)
Baseline kWh = 129,571 kWh
Understanding the Baseline
What Good is the Equation?
So Baseline kWh represents how much energy your facility would have used this year given current weather conditions and Base Year usage patterns.
The Baseline Equation represents Base Year Usage patterns, and we applied Current Year weather to it
Baseline kWh = 61.986 x #CDD + 2872.7 x # days7/21/05 Bill
100,000 kWh
700 CDD
30 days
Baseline kWh = (61.986 x 700) + (2872.7 x 30)
Baseline kWh = 129,571 kWh
Understanding the Baseline
Understanding the Baseline
What Good is the Equation?
Savings is Baseline Usage – the Actual Bill Usage
Baseline kWh = 61.986 x #CDD + 2872.7 x # days
7/21/05 Bill
100,000 kWh
700 CDD
30 days
Baseline kWh = (61.986 x 700) + (2872.7 x 30)
Baseline kWh = 129,571 kWh
Savings = Baseline kWh - Actual kWh
Savings = 129,571 kWh – 100,000 kWh
Savings = 29,571 kWh
Savings then…Savings = Baseline – Actual
Which is …
how much we would have used – how much we did use
Wait a Second!
You don’t have to do all this math!
Wait a Second!
Starts cooling at 46 degrees?
Runs on a working control system
Very large non-temperature sensitive usage
non-temperature sensitive usage
temperature sensitive usage
Reading Bills
Correlation to HDD
Much Noise…poor control operation or don’t understand the meter
Starts heating at 65 F degrees
Reading Bills
More…
You Can Normalize with More than Just Weather.
•Normalize to:
•Production,
•School Calendar,
•Occupancy
•Or Something else
Normalizing with Humidity
LOAD FACTOR
0%
10%20%
30%
40%50%
60%
70%
80%90%
100%
Feb-
03
Mar
-03
Apr
-03
May
-03
Jun-
03
Jul-0
3
Aug
-03
Sep
-03
Oct
-03
Nov
-03
Dec
-03
Jan-
04
Feb-
04
Mar
-04
Apr
-04
May
-04
Jun-
04
Jul-0
4
Aug
-04
Sep
-04
Oct
-04
Nov
-04
Dec
-04
Jan-
05
LF %
BEACH HS
GROVES HS
JENKINS HS
SAVANNAH ART ACAD
SAVANNAH HS
WINDSOR FOREST HS
Average
dayhrs
NkW
kWhkW
kWLF
daysmtrmtr
ave
24
Load Factor is a measure of demand relative to usage.
It can indicate how the building is using energy.
dayhrs
NkW
kWhkW
kWLF
daysmtrmtr
ave
24
dayhrs
N
kWhkW
days
ave
24
LOAD FACTOR
• LF = 1 implies uniform levels of use (no high peak demand)
• LF ~ 0.2 implies very high peak demands
kW
Hour of the Day
LF gives an idea where energy manager should focus.
If LF is high (above .7), focus on reducing usage, not demand.
LOAD FACTOR
Billing error? Change in
Usage Pattern
Why is the purple line the highest?
LOAD FACTOR