warn-on-forecast parting shots

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Warn-on-Forecast Parting Shots David J. Stensrud NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory

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Warn-on-Forecast Parting Shots. David J. Stensrud NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory. SWOT Analysis. Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities Threats Just my perspective Biased, imperfect. Strengths. Strengths. Good results!. Strengths. Good results!. Largely independent of DA used, - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Warn-on-Forecast Parting Shots

Warn-on-ForecastParting Shots

David J. StensrudNOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory

Page 2: Warn-on-Forecast Parting Shots
Page 3: Warn-on-Forecast Parting Shots

SWOT Analysis

• Strengths• Weaknesses• Opportunities• Threats

• Just my perspective – Biased, imperfect

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Strengths

Page 5: Warn-on-Forecast Parting Shots

Strengths

• Good results!

Page 6: Warn-on-Forecast Parting Shots

Strengths

• Good results!Largely independent of DA used,as long as it is designed for convective scale flow!

Page 7: Warn-on-Forecast Parting Shots

Strengths

• Good results!• Great staff

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Strengths

• Good results!• Great staff• Partnerships

cimms

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Strengths

• Good results!• Great staff• Partnerships

cimms

Page 10: Warn-on-Forecast Parting Shots

Strengths

• Good results!• Great staff• Partnerships

cimms

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Strengths

• Good results!• Great staff• Partnerships• Engaged with social sciences from outset

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Weaknesses

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Weaknesses

• Insufficient funding

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014$0.00

$500,000.00

$1,000,000.00

$1,500,000.00

$2,000,000.00

$2,500,000.00

$3,000,000.00

Warn-on-Forecast Funding

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Weaknesses

• Insufficient funding• Computer resources

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Weaknesses

• Insufficient funding• Computer resources• Project management

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Weaknesses

• Insufficient funding• Computer resources• Project management• Warn-on-Forecast still Research

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Weaknesses

• Insufficient funding• Computer resources• Project management• Warn-on-Forecast still Research• Yet already having to address R2O

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Weaknesses

• Insufficient funding• Computer resources• Project management• Warn-on-Forecast still Research• Yet already having to address R2O• This makes life particularly challenging

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Weaknesses

• Insufficient funding• Computer resources• Project management• Warn-on-Forecast still Research• Yet already having to address R2O• This makes life particularly challenging• Developing people as well as technology

Page 20: Warn-on-Forecast Parting Shots

Weaknesses

• Insufficient funding• Computer resources• Project management• Partnerships

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Weaknesses

• Insufficient funding• Computer resources• Project management• Partnerships• Focus on tornadic supercells

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Weaknesses

• Insufficient funding• Computer resources• Project management• Partnerships• Focus on tornadic supercells• Social science connection

Page 23: Warn-on-Forecast Parting Shots

Opportunities

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Opportunities

• Additional funding

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Opportunities

• Additional funding• Seek our own funding• GOES-R support via SPC/NSSL

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Opportunities

• Additional funding• NOAA planning• Radar Vision• NWS Roadmap• Radar Functional Requirements for 2030

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Opportunities

• Additional funding• NOAA planning• Expanded partnerships• NCEP/EMC, WPC, AWC• SSD Chiefs• ROC, WDTB, JCSDA• Within NSSL and other partner groups

cimms

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Threats

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Threats

• NOAA bureaucracy

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Threats

• NOAA bureaucracy• Too much focus on trees instead of the forest

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Threats

• NOAA bureaucracy• Too much focus on trees instead of the forest• Ourselves

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Threats

• NOAA bureaucracy• Too much focus on trees instead of the forest• Ourselves

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Parting Shots

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Parting Shots

• WoF is doing very well

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Parting Shots

• WoF is doing very well• Weathered federal downturn

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Parting Shots

• WoF is doing very well• Weathered federal downturn

• Partnerships intact

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Parting Shots

• WoF is doing very well• Weathered federal downturn

• Partnerships intact • Could use some attention.

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Parting Shots

• WoF is doing very well• Weathered federal downturn

• Partnerships intact • Could use some attention.• All partners need to help with this!

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Parting Shots

• WoF is doing very well• Weathered federal downturn

• Partnerships intact • Could use some attention.• All partners need to help with this!

• New funding possible if we work together

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Parting Shots

• WoF is doing very well• Weathered federal downturn

• Partnerships intact • Could use some attention.• All partners need to help with this!

• New funding possible if we work together• Biggest threat is ourselves

Page 41: Warn-on-Forecast Parting Shots

The hardest challenge in creating new technology is not eliminating uncertainty in advance but adapting to it as the work uncovers it.

Clay Shirky, Professor of New MediaNew York UniversityIn “The key to successful tech management”