VOTING AND ELECTIONSVOTING AND ELECTIONS

Voting and ElectionsVoting and Elections

Campaigns and ElectionsCampaigns and Elections– primariesprimaries– general electionsgeneral elections

Campaign financingCampaign financing public opinion pollingpublic opinion polling Voting TurnoutVoting Turnout Initiatives/ReferendumsInitiatives/Referendums

Primary ElectionsPrimary Elections

types of primariestypes of primaries– closed primaryclosed primary

– open primaryopen primary

– blanket primaryblanket primary

Presidential primariesPresidential primaries– delegate selectiondelegate selection

– primary scheduleprimary schedule

– bellwether statesbellwether states» e.g. New Hampshiree.g. New Hampshire

General ElectionsGeneral Elections

Presidential ElectionsPresidential Elections– the electoral collegethe electoral college

Congressional ElectionsCongressional Elections– winner take allwinner take all

Primary and General ElectionsPrimary and General Elections

different electoral strategiesdifferent electoral strategies primaries primaries

– no partisan guideno partisan guide– run to the partyrun to the party

general electionsgeneral elections– run to the centrerun to the centre

Campaign FinancingCampaign Financing

basic rulesbasic rules– FECFEC– public fundingpublic funding– spending limitsspending limits– contribution limitscontribution limits– disclosure requirementsdisclosure requirements

$1 billion dollars in TV ads -- 2002$1 billion dollars in TV ads -- 2002 the problem of “soft money”the problem of “soft money”

– contributions to parties (as opposed to candidates)contributions to parties (as opposed to candidates)

Campaign FinancingCampaign Financing

Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act, 2002Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act, 2002– bans the use of soft money by federal partiesbans the use of soft money by federal parties

» not state and local partiesnot state and local parties

– does not alter the ability of independent groups does not alter the ability of independent groups to run issue campaignsto run issue campaigns

» e.g. numerous loopholes still existe.g. numerous loopholes still exist

Public Opinion PollsPublic Opinion Polls

centrality of pollingcentrality of polling misuse of pollsmisuse of polls

– nation-wide polls (Rothenberg)nation-wide polls (Rothenberg)– misreading pollsmisreading polls

Voter TurnoutVoter Turnout

levels of voter turnoutlevels of voter turnout explaining voter turnoutexplaining voter turnout

– low voter turnoutlow voter turnout– declining voter turnoutdeclining voter turnout

Explaining Voter TurnoutExplaining Voter Turnout

registration proceduresregistration procedures» requires registrationrequires registration

» motor voter lawsmotor voter laws

» why is voter registration even an issue?why is voter registration even an issue?

low voter turnoutlow voter turnout» voter fatiguevoter fatigue

» voter satisfactionvoter satisfaction

Voter TurnoutVoter Turnout

high opportunities for mass participationhigh opportunities for mass participation– range of elective officesrange of elective offices

Elections in MassachusettsElections in Massachusetts

PresidentPresident US House of US House of

RepresentativesRepresentatives US SenateUS Senate state governorstate governor state representativestate representative state senatestate senate state attorney generalstate attorney general state auditorstate auditor

state treasurerstate treasurer secretary of statesecretary of state county commissionercounty commissioner sheriffsheriff clerks of courtsclerks of courts mayormayor city councillorscity councillors school committee school committee

membersmembers

Voter TurnoutVoter Turnout

high opportunities for mass participationhigh opportunities for mass participation– range of elective officesrange of elective offices– primary electionsprimary elections– referendums and initiativesreferendums and initiatives

actual participationactual participation– primaries (5%-20%)primaries (5%-20%)– general election (45%-55%)general election (45%-55%)

» Canada -- averages near 65%Canada -- averages near 65%

Explaining Voter TurnoutExplaining Voter Turnout

strategic votingstrategic voting– vote in elections that are close racesvote in elections that are close races

» Florida predicted 60-2%, South Dakota predicted 75%Florida predicted 60-2%, South Dakota predicted 75%

– vote in elections with candidates that voter has vote in elections with candidates that voter has strong feelings for/againststrong feelings for/against

– vote in elections with issues of relevance to votervote in elections with issues of relevance to voter» the “Seinfeld” election?the “Seinfeld” election?

– vote in elections where multiple offices/issues in vote in elections where multiple offices/issues in playplay

Explaining Voter TurnoutExplaining Voter Turnout

low voter turnoutlow voter turnout» voter fatiguevoter fatigue

» voter satisfactionvoter satisfaction

» voter disaffectionvoter disaffection

Explaining Voter Turnout – Explaining Voter Turnout – Voter DisaffectionVoter Disaffection

declining voter turnoutdeclining voter turnout– demographicsdemographics– fewer differences between partyfewer differences between party

» electoral strategyelectoral strategy

» less interest in who winsless interest in who wins

– less effort at voter mobilization by partiesless effort at voter mobilization by parties

Explaining Voter Turnout – Explaining Voter Turnout – Voter DisaffectionVoter Disaffection

do elections matter?do elections matter?– incumbencyincumbency

» elections are referedums on incumbentselections are referedums on incumbents

» incumbent has to do something to loseincumbent has to do something to lose

» challenger finds it hard to get money, hard to break cyclechallenger finds it hard to get money, hard to break cycle

– primariesprimaries– winner-take-allwinner-take-all– economyeconomy

Explaining Voter Turnout – Explaining Voter Turnout – Some ObservationsSome Observations

voter turnout and September 11voter turnout and September 11 thth

voter turnout and split Congressvoter turnout and split Congress– split Congress leads to high competitionsplit Congress leads to high competition– high competition leads to negative campaigninghigh competition leads to negative campaigning– negative campaigning leads to depressed voter negative campaigning leads to depressed voter

turnoutturnout

Referendums and Initiatives – Referendums and Initiatives – What are They?What are They?

What are They?What are They?– initiative – proposal to put some issue to a initiative – proposal to put some issue to a

referendumreferendum» requires 3%-15% of voters to signrequires 3%-15% of voters to sign

– propositionproposition» referendum question put directly on the ballotreferendum question put directly on the ballot

Referendums and Initiatives – Referendums and Initiatives – How and When Are They How and When Are They

Used?Used?

allowed by 24 statesallowed by 24 states– half of all initiatives take place in five stateshalf of all initiatives take place in five states

» Oregon, California, North Dakota, Colorado, Oregon, California, North Dakota, Colorado, ArizonaArizona

success ratesuccess rate» 50% once they are on the ballot50% once they are on the ballot

CaliforniaCalifornia» 8-12 propositions on EACH ballot8-12 propositions on EACH ballot

» some propositions of VERY considerable importancesome propositions of VERY considerable importance

Election 2002 – Some Final Election 2002 – Some Final ObservationsObservations

White House legislative initiatives (January)White House legislative initiatives (January)» judicial nomineesjudicial nominees

» patients bill of rightspatients bill of rights

» energy billenergy bill

» permanent tax cutpermanent tax cut

– there is no safety net – “no excuses administration”there is no safety net – “no excuses administration”» White House bipartisanship – why??White House bipartisanship – why??

» who needs who?who needs who?