vlerick alumni presentation chief economists debate_final

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  • 1. HOW IS THE BELGIAN ECONOMY MANAGING THECRISIS IN EUROPEAN AND GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE?Frank Smets Director General, DG Research at European Central BankPeter Vanden Houte Chief Economist, INGEdwin De Boeck Chief Economist, KBC BankFrank Lierman Chief Economist, BelfiusBart Van Craeynest Chief Economist, PetercamModerator: Dirk Selleslagh News Manager, Tijd.TV4 February 2013 Vlerick Finance Alumni partner:
  • 2. UPCOMING EVENTSHow to excel in networking MBA Alumni 7 Feb 2013Buying your own company Platform for Entrepren. Buyouts 21 Feb 2013Alum. Nights All alumni sections 21 Feb 2013Latest science on Burn-out MGM Alumni 26 Feb 2013Improving a CV/Cover Letter MBA Alumni 27 Feb 2013Sustainability at your company Exec Alumni 5 Mar 2013Meet the Industry: Shipping Finance Alumni 14 Mar 2013Visit ThromboGenics Exec Alumni 20 Mar 2013Entering the job market MBA Alumni 20 Mar 2013Meet the industry: Media Finance Alumni Apr/May 2013Event Controllership Finance Alumni 22 May 2012Workshop on family businesses Finance Alumni Jun 2013 Vlerick Finance Alumni partner:
  • 3. GLOBAL OVERVIEWPeter Vanden HouteChief Economist, ING Vlerick Finance Alumni partner:
  • 4. World Economic UpdateFrom half empty to half fullPeter Vanden HouteChief economist ING BelgiumFebruary 2013 4
  • 5. What do investors consider to be the biggest tail risk? Should be settled in next 3 months Downgrade Spain? Elections Italy Cyprus (elections 17 Feb, bail-out?) Seems OK Elections Iran in June Source BoA-ML Global Fund Manager Survey January 2013 5
  • 6. OECD Leading indicator104103102 US101 China100 EMU 99 Belgium 98 97 96 95 94 93 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 6
  • 7. US housing sector is recovering strongly15 20 US Case-Shiller house price yoy%10 15 5 10 0 5 -5 0-10 -5-15 -10-20 US residential construction yoy%-25 -15-30 -20 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 7
  • 8. Chinese economy is picking up108 70106 65 60104 China new order index 55102 50100 45 98 40 96 35 China real estate climate index 94 30 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 8
  • 9. An improvement in sentiment is not enough in Europe Remember 2012...The Governing Council continues to 0.80 EMU quarterly GDP growthexpect euro area economic activity 0.60to recover, albeit very gradually, in 0.40 ECB reportthe course of 2012, supported bydevelopments in global demand, 0.20very low short-term interest rates 0and all the measures taken tosupport the functioning of the -0.20financial sector.(ECB Jan 2012) -0.40 2011 2012 9
  • 10. Divergence within Eurozone remains huge... Economic sentiment indicator: divergence from lt-average (Jan 2013) 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 DE FI AT BE EA ES FR NL GR IT PT CY 10
  • 11. ...but population still euro supportive605040302010 0 FI IE IT FR DE BE ES AT CY PT NL LU GR EU27 Balance of opinion in favour of EUR 11
  • 12. Growth outlook 2011 2012 2013 2014USA 1.8 2.3 1.7 2.3Eurozone 1.5 -0.5 0.0 1.2Belgium 1.8 -0.2 0.2 1.2Japan -0.7 2.1 1.3 1.5China 9.2 7.7 9.0 8.4 12 12
  • 13. The US energy bonanza350 Natural gas price in euro (January 2004 = 100) 350300 300250 250200 Zeebrugge 200150 150 London100 100 50 50 Henry Hub 0 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 13
  • 14. Its a gas, gas, gas 14