Vegetation SimulationVegetation Simulationand and

Our Changing WorldOur Changing World

by by

Corbin Newman, Director of Forest Corbin Newman, Director of Forest Management, National Forest SystemManagement, National Forest System

A Little Context and BackgroundA Little Context and Background

Prior to the 1990s, a primary focus of vegetation mgmt Prior to the 1990s, a primary focus of vegetation mgmt on National Forest System was commodity productionon National Forest System was commodity production

While production of goods is still important, the restoration of ecosystem function and resiliency has gained primacy in the last 20 years

This is evidenced by a decline of more than 80% in NFS timber production since the late1980s

The current focus by the Forest Service on ecological restoration reflect both changing public values, and the ecological conditions that currently exist on NFS lands

Ecosystem Restoration meansEcosystem Restoration means

Creating conditions within the ecosystem that Creating conditions within the ecosystem that restoresrestores its health and resiliency to natural its health and resiliency to natural forces and disturbances that affect it while forces and disturbances that affect it while meeting societal needs.meeting societal needs.

It does not mean………. restoring it to some It does not mean………. restoring it to some predetermined point in time.predetermined point in time.

The shift from commodity production to restoring resiliency of ecosystem

has occurred in the context of:

A decade long drought in the parts of the WestA decade long drought in the parts of the West

A multi-decade increase in forest density A multi-decade increase in forest density

Increased incidents of fire, insects and diseaseIncreased incidents of fire, insects and disease

An unprecedented expansion of residential An unprecedented expansion of residential developments into the wildlanddevelopments into the wildland

Increasing concern over the effects of climate Increasing concern over the effects of climate change on forests change on forests

The increase in forest density in many parts of the country has been in progress since the late

19th Century

South Fork Teton RiverSouth Fork Teton RiverLewis & Clark NF, MTLewis & Clark NF, MT

Changes in Fire Regime -- Historic vs. Current

Interior Columbia Basin

Source: ICBEMP (1996)

High Fire Severity Low Fire Severity0

10

20

30

40

50

60Percent of Area

Historic Current

There has been a major shift in fire regime from low to high severity

Forest Growth and Removals National Forests of the Interior West - 1920-1997

Source: Forest Resources of the United States, 1997; GTR-NC-219. USDA-Forest Service, 2001.

1952 1962 1977 1987 1997 20010

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600Millions of Cubic Feet

Net Growth Removals

Forest growth greatly exceeds removalson NFS lands in the Interior West

The Size and Intensity of Wildfire Has Increased In Recent Years

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2005200019951990198519801975197019651960

Fire Year

Ac

res

bu

rne

d in

millio

ns

National Fire Plan

Western Pine Bark Beetle Damage -- Prescott National Forest, ArizonaWestern Pine Bark Beetle Damage -- Prescott National Forest, Arizona

When dense forests combine with extended When dense forests combine with extended drought, the ecological stress sets the stage for drought, the ecological stress sets the stage for

increased insect epidemics and wildfireincreased insect epidemics and wildfire

At the same time, people have been moving to forests and shrub lands in record numbers

There has been a compelling There has been a compelling political call to action political call to action

National Fire Plan 2000

• Fire Fighting• Rehab and Restoration• Hazardous Fuel Reduction• Community Assistance• Accountability

Healthy ForestsInitiative (HFI)

2002

Expedite priority fuels reductionand healthy forest restoration.

New Categorical Exclusions

Stewardship Authority

Healthy ForestsInitiative (HFI)

2002

Expedite priority fuels reductionand healthy forest restoration.

New Categorical Exclusions

Stewardship Authority

Wildland FireLeadership Council

(WFLC)

OversightAccountability

Consistency across DOI/FS

Healthy Forests Restoration Act (HFRA)

2003(Title 1 Only)

Accelerate hazardous fuelsreduction on NFS/BLM lands

New authorities to expediteEnvironmental Analysis

Process

Community Wildfire Protection Plans

Healthy Forests Restoration Act (HFRA)

2003(Title 1 Only)

Accelerate hazardous fuelsreduction on NFS/BLM lands

New authorities to expediteEnvironmental Analysis

Process

Community Wildfire Protection Plans

2000 Fire Policy

Restoring Healthy Forestand

Grassland Ecosystems

Bringing It All TogetherBringing It All Together

10-Year Comprehensive Strategy / Implementation Plan

2002

To restore and maintain fire adaptive ecosystems

•Priority setting

•Collaboration

•Accountability

The Forest Service The Forest Service RespondedResponded

With dramatically increased Forest fuels With dramatically increased Forest fuels treatmenttreatment

Increase of forest vegetation treatments Increase of forest vegetation treatments focused on density managementfocused on density management

A robust Forest Health Protection program A robust Forest Health Protection program on federal and non-federal landson federal and non-federal lands

A major strategy of National Forest management has been to focus on

ecosystem restoration and fuels treatment

BeforeBeforeTreatmentTreatment

AfterAfterTreatmentTreatment

Pearson Natural AreaPearson Natural AreaRestoration Study – Near Flagstaff, ArizonaRestoration Study – Near Flagstaff, Arizona

The last natural fire occurred in 1876The last natural fire occurred in 1876• Prior to 1876, low intensity surface fires burned Prior to 1876, low intensity surface fires burned

through the area on a 2-4 yr intervalthrough the area on a 2-4 yr interval• In 1876 there were an average of 23 trees per acreIn 1876 there were an average of 23 trees per acre• Prior to thinning the area averaged 1170 trees per Prior to thinning the area averaged 1170 trees per

acreacre

Slide from W. CovingtonSlide from W. Covington

Restoration thinning in 1993-94 left 60 trees per Restoration thinning in 1993-94 left 60 trees per acre, (latillas for adobe home construction and 5 acre, (latillas for adobe home construction and 5 tons per acre of slash or ten 18-wheel dump tons per acre of slash or ten 18-wheel dump trucks/acre)trucks/acre)

After RestorationAfter Restoration

Slide from W. CovingtonSlide from W. Covington

CC

UnthinnedUnthinned ThinnedThinned

Wind

Cone FireBlacks Mountain Exp Forest

September 2002

A. No treatmentB. Thinned – No RxBurnC. Thinned with RxBurn

After Cone Fire

AA

B: B: Thinned – No RxBurn C: C: Thinned with RxBurn

So what does all this mean to So what does all this mean to vegetation modeling?vegetation modeling?

EverythingEverything

Key Socio-Political Forces are ShiftingKey Socio-Political Forces are Shifting

There is a broader recognition of climate change There is a broader recognition of climate change and the need for action to address itand the need for action to address it

There is a renewed drive to find mechanisms for There is a renewed drive to find mechanisms for energy independence with bio-energy being a big energy independence with bio-energy being a big part of itpart of it

The value of the ecosystem services provided by The value of the ecosystem services provided by forests has increased, with carbon sequestration forests has increased, with carbon sequestration leading the wayleading the wayThere is growing recognition of the need to There is growing recognition of the need to actively manage NFS lands to restore and protect actively manage NFS lands to restore and protect important ecosystem servicesimportant ecosystem services

Today More Than EverToday More Than EverWe Need What FVS DeliversWe Need What FVS Delivers

Planners need ways to analyze alternative Planners need ways to analyze alternative futuresfuturesDecision makers need to understand Decision makers need to understand effects of actions they contemplateeffects of actions they contemplateCollaborative groups need to explore Collaborative groups need to explore common ground around treatmentscommon ground around treatmentsLand management agencies need tools to Land management agencies need tools to help understand the consequences of help understand the consequences of policies they considerpolicies they consider

30 Years of Relevance30 Years of Relevance

Grown to meet the needs of our field Grown to meet the needs of our field practitionerspractitionersEvolved to address the emerging forces Evolved to address the emerging forces affecting Forest growthaffecting Forest growthAdapted to project measurements of newly Adapted to project measurements of newly important forest characteristics such as important forest characteristics such as carbon sequestrationcarbon sequestrationAnd most importantly … a dedication to And most importantly … a dedication to the userthe user

Thank YouThank You