valuation of ashok leyland

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  • Valuation Of ASHOK LEYLAND

    Particulars Mar-21(F) Mar-20(F) Mar-19(F) Mar-18(F) Mar-17(F) Mar-16 Mar-15 Mar-14 Mar-13 Mar-12 Mar-11 Mar-10 Mar-09 Mar-08 Mar-07

    Total Operating Revenues

    107035.3517 73817.484 52726.77 36363.29 26350.21 18,821.58 13,562.18 9,943.43 12,481.20 12,841.99 11,177.11 7,436.18 6,168.99 7,972.52 7,358.88

    YoY % 45% 40% 45% 38% 40% 39% 36% -20% -3% 15% 50% 21% -23% 8% #DIV/0!

    Total Expenses

    103824.2911 72341.134 52726.77 34545.13 24505.7 17,372.82 13,345.39 10,606.83 12,362.40 12,193.96 10,419.76 6,984.02 6,045.10 7,442.26 6,868.48

    YoY % 44% 37% 53% 41% 41% 30% 26% -14% 1% 17% 49% 16% -19% 8% #DIV/0!

    Expense to sales 97% 98% 100% 95% 93% 92% 98% 107% 99% 95% 93% 94% 98% 93% 93%

    Depreciation And Amortisation Expenses

    631.89 550.32 652.1 497.2 502.11

    443.67 416.34 377.04 380.78 352.81 267.43 204.11 178.41 177.36 150.57

    YoY % 15% -16% 31% -1% 13% 7% 10% -1% 8% 32% 31% 14% 1% 18% #DIV/0!

    Dep to fixed asset 9% 8% 10% 8% 9% 9% 8% 6% 6% 6% 5% 4% 4% 8% 9%

    Finance Costs 410 350 375 400 350 273.54 393.51 452.92 376.89 255.25 188.92 101.85 157.3 83.63 31.82

    YoY % 17% -7% -6% 14% 28% -30% -13% 20% 48% 35% 85% -35% 88% 163% #DIV/0!

    Operating Cost 102,782.40 71,440.81 51,699.67 33,647.93 23,653.59 16,655.61 12,535.54 9,776.87 11,604.73 11,585.90 9,963.41 6,678.06 5,709.39 7,181.27 6,686.09

    YoY % 44% 38% 54% 42% 42% 33% 28% -16% 0% 16% 49% 17% -20% 7% #DIV/0!

    EBITDA 4,252.95 2,376.67 1,027.10 2,715.36 2,696.62 2,165.97 1,026.64 166.56 876.47 1,256.09 1,213.70 758.12 459.60 791.25 672.79

    YoY % 79% 131% -62% 1% 24% 111% 516% -81% -30% 3% 60% 65% -42% 18% #DIV/0!

    EBITDA TO SALES 4% 3% 2% 7% 10% 12% 8% 2% 7% 10% 11% 10% 7% 10% 9%

    Total Tax Expenses 1233.355659 689.23421 297.859 787.4557 782.0212 447.43 107.39 -120.6 37 124 170.5 121.1 18.45 168.84 163.22

    YoY % 79% 131% -62% 1% 75% 317% -189% -426% -70% -27% 41% 556% -89% 3% #DIV/0!

    TAX TO EBITDA 29% 29% 29% 29% 29% 21% 10% -72% 4% 10% 14% 16% 4% 21% 24%

    Profit/Loss For The Period

    6422.121099 5167.2239 2636.339 2181.798 1317.511 721.78 334.81 29.38 433.71 565.98 631.3 423.67 190.25 469.31 444.25

    YoY % 24% 96% 21% 66% 83% 116% 1040% -93% -23% -10% 49% 123% -59% 6% #DIV/0!

    PAT - SALES 6% 7% 5% 6% 5% 4% 2% 0% 3% 4% 6% 6% 3% 6% 6%

    Fixed Assets 7021 6879 6521 6215 5579 5,129.35 5,375.70 5,841.39 5,970.81 5,461.72 4,991.76 4,869.26 4,442.31 2,186.63 1,714.74

    YoY % 2% 5% 5% 11% 9% -5% -8% -2% 9% 9% 3% 10% 103% 28% #DIV/0!

    Fixed Assets 27% 40% 59% 48% 43% 45% 65% 72% 27% 23%

  • - SALES Margin

    Total Current Liabilities

    37462.37308 28050.644 18454.37 13454.42 8695.57 5,209.86 5,035.52 4,586.60 5,296.10 4,843.70 3,759.87 2,960.76 2,136.95 2,275.95 1,922.61

    YoY % 34% 52% 37% 55% 67% 3% 10% -13% 9% 29% 27% 39% -6% 18% #DIV/0!

    CL to Sales 35% 38% 35% 37% 33% 28% 37% 46% 42% 38% 34% 40% 35% 29% 26%

    Total Current Assets

    40673.43363 29526.994 18981.64 14545.32 9222.574 5,290.61 4,693.00 3,855.44 4,296.53 4,303.89 3,983.77 4,081.45 3,120.71 2,743.42 2,527.50

    YoY % 38% 56% 31% 58% 74% 13% 22% -10% 0% 8% -2% 31% 14% 9% #DIV/0!

    CA to Sales 38% 40% 36% 40% 35% 28% 35% 39% 34% 34% 36% 55% 51% 34% 34%

    Working Capital 3,211.06 1,476.35 527.27 1,090.90 527.00 80.75 -342.52 -731.16 -999.57 -539.81 223.90 1,120.69 983.76 467.47 604.89

    change in WC 1,734.71 949.08 -563.63 563.89 446.25 423.27 388.64 268.41 -459.76 -763.71 -896.79 136.93 516.29 -137.42 604.89

    CAPEX -489.89 -192.32 -346.10 138.80 -52.46 -690.02 -882.03 -506.46 128.31 117.15 -144.93 222.84 2,077.27 294.53 1,564.17

    FCFF(revenue model) 1,774.77 930.67 1,638.97 1,225.21 1,520.81 1,985.29 1,412.64 525.21 1,170.92 1,778.65 2,084.92 277.25

    -2,152.41 465.30 ########

    Total Assets 23,166.77 20,870.96 18,634.79 16,490.96 14,991.78 13,385.52 13,311.49 12,808.00 13,096.70 11,915.75 10,593.31 9,308.12 7,911.26 5,578.20 4,505.17

    YoY % 11% 12% 13% 10% 12% 1% 4% -2% 10% 12% 14% 18% 42% 24% #DIV/0!

    Cost Of Materials Consumed

    73,694.46 52,638.90 35,566.82 24,871.91 17,765.65 12,252.17 8,626.64 5,909.69 7,539.42 9,121.48 8,064.50 5,333.83 4,390.59 5,834.61 5,491.44

    YoY % 40% 48% 43% 40% 45% 42% 46% -22% -17% 13% 51% 21% -25% 6% #DIV/0!

    Purchase Of Stock-In Trade

    3,595.57 2,663.38 2,315.99 1,852.79 1,684.35 1,531.23 1,391.19 1,269.03 1,311.74 507.37 273.37 244.88 202.19 163.53 124.18

    YoY % 35% 15% 25% 10% 10% 10% 10% -3% 159% 86% 12% 21% 24% 32% #DIV/0!

    Operating And Direct Expenses

    0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 0 45.51 50.3 57.48 41.7

    YoY % #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! -100% -10% -12% 38% #DIV/0!

    Changes In Inventories Of FG,WIP And Stock-In Trade

    200 -350 200 400 -300

    -521.44 -52.61 423.87 271.98 -167.01 -165.22 -251.85 -1.05 -97.48 -48.98

    YoY % 891% -112% 56% -263% 1% -34% 23886% -99% 99% #DIV/0!

    COGS 77,490.03 54,952.28 38,082.81 27,124.69 19,150.00 13,261.96 9,965.22 7,602.59 9,123.14 9,461.84 8,172.65 5,326.86 4,591.73 5,900.66 5,566.64

    Total Shareholders Funds

    7,805.46 7,227.28 6,691.93 6,254.14 5,844.99 5,514.14 5,118.69 4,447.88 4,455.10 4,208.17 3,962.96 3,656.31 3,473.90 2,148.98 1,894.57

    YoY % 8% 8% 7% 7% 6% 8% 15% 0% 6% 6% 8% 5% 62% 13% #DIV/0!

    Total Capital And Liabilities

    23,166.77 20,870.96 18,634.79 16,490.96 14,991.78 13,385.52 13,311.49 12,808.00 13,096.70 11,915.75 10,593.31 9,308.12 7,911.26 5,578.20 4,505.17

  • YoY % 11% 12% 13% 10% 12% 1% 4% -2% 10% 12% 14% 18% 42% 24% #DIV/0!

    Inventories 7,119.45 5,234.89 3,766.11 2,789.71 2,249.77 1,730.59 1,398.53 1,188.70 1,896.02 2,230.63 2,208.90 1,638.24 1,330.01 1,223.91 1,070.32

    YoY % 36% 39% 35% 24% 30% 24% 18% -37% -15% 1% 35% 23% 9% 14% #DIV/0!

    Cash And Cash Equivalents

    65,905.32 33,797.60 16,094.09 7,450.97 3,371.48 1,568.13 751.29 11.69 13.94 32.56 179.53 518.92 88.08 451.37 434.94

    YoY % 95% 110% 116% 121% 115% 109% 6327% -16% -57% -82% -65% 489% -80% 4% #DIV/0!

    Current Investments

    0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 408.45 384.37 0 0

    YoY % #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

    Trade Receivables

    1,414.06 1,400.06 1,372.60 1,307.24 1,188.40 1,250.95 1,257.69 1,299.01 1,419.41 1,230.25 1,164.50 1,022.06 957.97 375.84 522.88

    YoY % 1% 2% 5% 10% -5% -1% -3% -8% 15% 6% 14% 7% 155% -28% #DIV/0!

    Trade Payables

    4,065.22 3,534.97 3,213.61 3,382.75 3,075.23 2,562.69 2,828.32 2,214.15 2,485.37 2,772.46 2,308.51 2,331.68 1,771.29 1,735.11 1,433.69

    YoY % 15% 10% -5% 10% 20% -9% 28% -11% -10% 20% -1% 32% 2% 21% #DIV/0!

    EBIT 3,621.06 1,826.35 375.00 2,218.16 2,194.51 1,722.30 610.30 -210.48 495.69 903.28 946.27 554.01 281.19 613.89 522.22

    Basic EPS (Rs.) 22.57 18.16 9.26 7.67 4.63 2.54 1.18 0.11 1.63 2.13 4.75 3.18 1.43 3.53 3.36

    CURRENT MARKET PRICE AS ON 31 MAR 2016 108.55 108.55 108.55 108.55 108.55 108.55 108.55 108.55 108.55 108.55 108.55 108.55 108.55 108.55 108.55

    Equity Share Capital 284.59 284.59 284.59 284.59 284.59 284.59 284.59 266.07 266.07 266.07 133.03 133.03 133.03 133.03 132.39

    Profit/Loss Before Tax 7,655.48 5,856.46 2,934.20 2,969.25 2,099.53 1,169.21 442.20 -91.22 470.71 689.98 801.80 544.77 208.70 638.15 607.47

    YoY % 31% 100% -1% 41% 80% 164% -585% -119% -32% -14% 47% 161% -67% 5% #DIV/0!

  • DCF ANALYSIS

    Particulars Mar-21 Mar-20 Mar-19 Mar-18 Mar-17

    Mar-16 Mar-15

    Mar-14 Mar-13

    Mar-12 Mar-11 Mar-10 Mar-09

    Dec-07

    Dec-06

    FCFF (EBITDA Formula) 1958.0221 1090.27 1828.08 1369.4 1666.42 2076.9 1456.19 252.21 1186.995 1813.5 2122.49 309.854 -2145.25 503.15

    WACC 9% 9% 9% 9% 9%

    Years (t) 5 4 3 2 1

    Discounted FCFF 1273 772 1412 1153 1529

    Sum of Discounted FCFF 6138

    Terminal Value (Growth 5%) 51398

    Dicsounted Terminal Value (t=5) 33405

    Value of company (Sum of Discounted FCFF+Discounted Terminal Value)

    39543

    Shares Outstanding 284.59

    FCFF per share 138.94802 Current Market Price (As on

    12 Aug 2016) 89 Upside 56%

    BUY CALL

  • Forecasting Financial Ratios Profitability Ratios Profitability Ratios Mar-21 Mar-20 Mar-19 Mar-18 Mar-17 Mar-16 Mar-15 Mar-14 Mar-13 Mar-12 Mar-11 Mar-10 Mar-09 Dec-07 Dec-06

    Gross Profit Ratio

    ((Total Operating Revenues-COGS)/Total Operating Revenues) 28% 26% 28% 25% 27% 30% 27% 24% 27% 26% 27% 28% 26% 26% 24%

    Return on Sales

    [PAT/Total Operating Revenues) 6% 7% 5% 6% 5% 4% 2% 0% 3% 4% 6% 6% 3% 6% 6%

    Return on Assets

    [PAT/ Average Total Assets] 28% 25% 14% 13% 9% 5% 3% 0% 3% 5% 6% 5% 2% 8% 10%

    Return on Equity

    [PAT / Average Stockholders' Equity] 82% 71% 39% 35% 23% 13% 7% 1% 10% 13% 16% 12% 5% 22% 23%

    Net Profit Ratio

    [PAT/Total Operating Revenue] 6% 7% 5% 6% 5% 4% 2% 0% 3% 4% 6% 6% 3% 6% 6%

    Liquidity Ratios Liquidity Ratios

    Current Ratio [Current Assets / Current Liabilities] 1.085714 1.0526316 1.0285714 1.0810811 1.060606 1.015499 0.931979 0.840588 0.811263 0.888554 1.05955 1.378514 1.4603571 1.205396 1.314619

    Quick Ratio

    [(Current Assets-Inventory) / Current Liabilities] 0.895671 0.8660087 0.8244946 0.8737357 0.80188 0.683324 0.654246 0.58142 0.45326 0.428032 0.47206 0.825197 0.83797 0.667638 0.757918

    Cash Ratio

    [(Cash and cash equi. + current investment) / Current Liabilities] 1.75924 1.2048778 0.872102 0.5