usda outlook forum feeder cattle supplies for the south plains and implications february 24, 2012 by...
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USDA Outlook Forum
Feeder Cattle Supplies for the South Plains and Implications
February 24, 2012By Don Close
Market DirectorTexas Cattle Feeders Association
Amarillo, TX806 358 3681, [email protected]
Cattle Inventory by Class and Calf Crop - United States: January 1, 2011 and 2012
2011 2012 Percent ofPrevious Year
(1,000 Head) (1,000 Head)
Cattle and Calves 92,682 90,769 98
Cows and Heifers that have calved 3,999 39,112 98Beef Cows 30,850 29,883 97Milk Cows 9,150 9,230 101
Heifers 500 Pounds and over 19,576 19,388 99For Beef Replacement 5,139 5,212 101For Milk Replacement 4,568 4,527 99Other Heifers 9,869 9,649 98
Steers 500# and over 16,397 16,072 98Bulls 500# and over 2,155 2,052 95Calves under 500# 14,555 14,145 97
Cattle on Feed 14,013 14,121 101
2,010 2,011Calf Crop 35,695 35,313 99
Regional Distribution of All Cattle and Beef Heifer Retention
Percent of Percent of Heifer
All CattleCattle on
Feed RetentionInter Mountain CO, ID, MT, UT, WY 11.00% 11.50% Up 9%
West AZ, CA, NV, OR, WA 10.00% 6.00% Up 8%
Corn Belt IL, IN, IA, KS, MN, MI, MO, NE ND, SD, WI, 33.00% 49.00% Up 6%
Upper Mid-West KY, NJ, OH, PA, VA, W VA 9.00% 0.00% Up 1%
South East AL, AR FL, GA, LA, MS, NC, SC TN 12% 0% Up 1%
TCFA NM, OK, TX 20% 28% Dn 13%
South Plains Feeder Supply (TCFA)
YoY YoY
2011 2012 % Change Number
Other Heifers 2,255 2,170 Dn 4% Dn 85,000
Strs > 500 3,865 3,580 Dn 7% Dn 285,000
Combined 6,120 5,750 Dn 6% Dn 370,000
Calves < 500 3,485 2,960 Dn 15% Dn 525,000
Total 9,605 8,710 Dn 9.5% Dn 895,000
Number of Cattle Grazing on Small Grain Pasture – 3 State Total: January 1, 2011 – 2012
2011 2013 % of Previous Year
Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas 1.60 1.59 99%
January
February
March
April
May
JuneJulyAugust
September
October
November
December
January
February
March
April
May
JuneJulyAugust
September
October
November
December
January
February
March
April
May
JuneJulyAugust
September
October
November
December
January
February
March
April
May
JuneJulyAugust
September
October
November
December
January
February
March
April
May
JuneJulyAugust
September
October
November
December
January
February
March
April
May
JuneJulyAugust
September
October
November
December
January
February
March
April
May
JuneJulyAugust
September
October
November
December
January
February
March
April
May
JuneJulyAugust
September
October
November
December
January
February
March
April
May
JuneJulyAugust
September
October
November
December
January
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-$350.00
-$300.00
-$250.00
-$200.00
-$150.00
-$100.00
-$50.00
$0.00
$50.00
$100.00
$150.00
$200.00
$250.00
$300.00
$350.00
$400.00
Cattle Feeding P&L
DATE
P&
L
Feeding Calves Have Added Cost
The Historical Average for the Industry is 1 Employee for Every 1,000 Cattle.
Commercial Feed Yards are Working .6 to .8 Employees Per 1,000 Head.
Grow Yards are Working 1.5 to 2 Employees Per 1,000 Head.
Jan-0
8
Mar
-08
May
-08
Jul-0
8
Sep-0
8
Nov-08
Jan-0
9
Mar
-09
May
-09
Jul-0
9
Sep-0
9
Nov-09
Jan-1
0
Mar
-10
May
-10
Jul-1
0
Sep-1
0
Nov-10
Jan-1
1
Mar
-11
May
-11
Jul-1
1
Sep-1
1
Nov-11
Jan-1
270.00
75.00
80.00
85.00
90.00
95.00
100.00
105.00
110.00
115.00
Cost of Gain (Steers)Dr. Marcus Hoelsher
MONTH
CO
ST
OF
GA
IN
2.002.25
2.502.75
3.003.25
3.503.75
4.004.25
4.504.75
5.005.25
5.505.75
6.006.25
6.506.75
7.007.25
7.507.75
8.008.25
8.50
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
100.00
110.00
120.00
6 Months WEIGHTED CORN (HEREFORD) & COG STEERS
WEIGHTED CORN PRICE
CO
G S
TE
ER
S
80.0085.0090.0095.00
100.00105.00110.00115.00120.00125.00130.00135.00140.00145.00150.00155.00160.00165.00170.00175.00180.00
PR
ICE
DATE
TCFA FEEDER INDEX
5 Yr Avg
2010
2011
2012
Proj
What Will Change the Outlook?• Capital Requirements Exceeding Equity
• Another Summer of Drought• Wide Spread Seasonal Rains to
Recharge Soil and Ground Water• Economic Turmoil in Europe
• Surging Energy Prices that Curb Consumer Spending and Flatten
Vacation Season