TECHNOLOGYVISION

The U.S. Chemical IndustryAMERICAN CHEMICAL SOCIETY

AMERICAN INSTITUTE OF CHEMICAL ENGINEERS

CHEMICAL MANUFACTURERS ASSOCIATION

COUNCIL FOR CHEMICAL RESEARCH

SYNTHETIC ORGANIC CHEMICAL MANUFACTURERS ASSOCIATION

Copyright © December 1996 by The American Chemical Society, American Institute of Chemical Engineers, The Chemical Manufacturers Association, The Council for Chemical Research, and The Synthetic Organic Chemical Manufacturers Association

A full, printed version of this report can be obtained from American Chemical Society Department of Government Relations and Science Policy1155 16th Street, NWWashington, DC 20036(202) 452-8917http://www.acs.org

TECHNOLOGY VISION 2020THE U.S. CHEMICAL INDUSTRY*

The U.S. chemical industry . . .leads the world in technology development, manufacturing, and profitability.

The U.S. chemical industry . . .is responsible for breakthroughs in R&D that enhance the quality of lifeworldwide by improving energy use, transportation, food, health, housing, andenvironmental stewardship.

The U.S. chemical industry . . .leads the world in creating innovative process and product technologies thatallow it to meet the evolving needs of its customers.

The U.S. chemical industry . . .sets the world standard for excellence of manufacturing operations that protectworker health, safety, and the environment.

The U.S. chemical industry . . .is welcomed by communities worldwide because the industry is a responsibleneighbor who protects environmental quality, improves economic well-being,and promotes a higher quality of life.

The U.S. chemical industry . . .sets the standard in the manufacturing sector for efficient use of energy and rawmaterials.

The U.S. chemical industry . . .works in seamless partnerships with academe and government, creating "virtual"laboratories for originating and developing innovative technologies.

The U.S. chemical industry . . .promotes sustainable development by investing in technology that protects theenvironment and stimulates industrial growth while balancing economic needswith financial constraints.

*U.S. chemical industry is defined as U.S.-based production and R&D

TABLE OF CONTENTSForeword . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5Acknowledgments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

1. Introduction to the Chemical Industry and Its Contributions to U.S. Society . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

2. Business Issues Facing the U.S Chemical Industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

3. Role of Technology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19The Path Toward Technology Vision 2020: Technical Issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

4. New Chemical Science and Engineering Technology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23The Three Areas of Chemical Science . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23

Chemical Synthesis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23Bioprocesses and Biotechnology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25Materials Technology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27

Enabling Technologies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30Process Science and Engineering Technology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30Chemical Measurement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32Computational Technologies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34

5. Supply Chain Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39

6. Information Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43Information Systems in the Chemical Industry from Three Perspectives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43

Infrastructure and Open Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43Business and Enterprise Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45Product and Process Design and Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47

Computers in Manufacturing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50Manufacturing and Operations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50Computers in Plant Engineering and Construction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55

7. Manufacturing and Operations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57Customer Focus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57Production Capability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58Information and Process Control . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59Building New Plants . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60Supplier Relationships . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60Global Operations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61

Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65

Contributors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67Vision 2020 Workshop Participants . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72

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1 This report does not focus on the needs of the pharmaceutical industry, but rather examines the chemical industry as the supplierand user of basic chemicals.

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FOREWORD

In 1994, technical and business leaders in the U.S. chemical industry1 began a study on the factorsaffecting the competitiveness of the industry in a rapidly changing business environment and set out todevelop a vision for its future. The work focused on needs in research and development (R&D)capabilities, which are directly linked to growth and competitive advantage.

This study was also stimulated by a request from the White House Office of Science and TechnologyPolicy for industry advice on how the U.S. government could better allocate R&D funding to advance themanufacturing base of the U.S. economy. Since then, more than 200 technical and business leadershave investigated the challenges confronting the chemical industry today. (A list of the contributors is onpage 67.) The results of this work, contained in Technology Vision 2020, emphasize opportunities foradvancement in R&D capabilities. Participants concluded that the growth and competitive advantage ofour industry depend upon individual and collaborative efforts of industry, government, and academe toimprove the nation’s R&D enterprise.

To assemble these conclusions and recommendations, staff and members of the American ChemicalSociety (ACS), Chemical Manufacturers Association (CMA), American Institute of Chemical Engineers(AIChE), Council for Chemical Research (CCR), and Synthetic Organic Chemical ManufacturersAssociation (SOCMA) formed the Technology and Manufacturing Competitiveness Task Group(TMCTG). The charter of the TMCTG was to

• provide technology vision and establish technical priorities in areas critical to improving thechemical industry’s competitiveness;

• develop recommendations to strengthen cooperation among industry, government, and academe;and

• provide direction for continuous improvement and step change technology.

Over the course of several months, the TMCTG convened 36 formal working meetings and 20 technicalsessions to review and establish consensus on requirements within the chemical industry. The task groupalso polled senior management on the industry’s business needs, seeking to link technicalrecommendations to pressing business issues. Four technical disciplines were selected as crucial to theprogress of the chemical industry. They are

• new chemical science and engineering technology,• supply chain management,• information systems, and• manufacturing and operations.

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In addition to the technical work groups, a study group was put together to research existing concepts ofsustainable development, such as those developed by the President’s Council on SustainableDevelopment and the International Council of Chemical Associations (ICCA). The study group providedthese concepts to members of the technical groups as major considerations in their future-orientedtechnology recommendations.

A second study group also reviewed ideas for partnerships among industry, government, and academe.The group concluded that in this age of reorganization, the synergy of collaboration often has a’’multiplier effect’’ on our nation’s pool of talent, equipment, and capital available for R&D. Theconclusions of the four technical and two study groups were reviewed at a public workshop in May 1995hosted by the TMCTG and attended by 120 leaders from industry, government, and academe. Finalrecommendations and conclusions are contained in Technology Vision 2020.

Technology Vision 2020 is a call to action, innovation, and change. The body of this report outlines thecurrent state of the industry, a vision for tomorrow, and the technical advances needed to make thisvision a reality. The vision, like the industry, will evolve as the industry faces new realities andchallenges. Technology Vision 2020 is the first step of a continuous journey— one that will see the U.S.chemical industry continue as a global leader in the next century. We thank you, the reader, forconsidering our report and are grateful for the outstanding professional contributions of our many workingmembers and reviewers.

Sincerely,Members of the Steering Committee

John Oleson, Dow CorningVictoria Haynes, B. F. GoodrichBrian Ramaker, Shell OilRobert Slough, Air Products and ChemicalsHenry Whalen, Jr., PQ CorporationThomas Sciance, Sciance Consulting Services, Inc.Michael Saft, Saft AmericaDonald Jost, Council for Chemical ResearchWayne Tamarelli, Synthetic Organic Chemical Manufacturers AssociationSusan Turner, American Chemical SocietyDale Brooks, American Institute of Chemical EngineersDiana Artemis, Chemical Manufacturers AssociationDorothy Kellogg, Chemical Manufacturers Association

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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The sponsors of this report thank the many people, companies in the chemical industry, andorganizations and their staff who contributed time and energy to this project. The contributors are listedat the end of this report by name and affiliation.

As with any project, there are also people whose contributions merit particular thanks. Special effortswere made by John Oleson, Victoria Haynes, Susan Turner, Diana Artemis, and Hank Whalen toovercome challenges and keep this project on track. Gerry Lederer also helped facilitate meetings duringthe early part of this project. Leadership for the development of each of the chapters was given by JohnOleson, Victoria Haynes, Brian Ramaker, Hank Whalen, and Bob Slough. These people also served asspokespersons for this project during its two-year development. Tom Sciance and Mike Saft wroteseparate sections on sustainability and partnerships that were incorporated throughout the document.Other important contributors to the format and content of the report were Mark Barg, John Munro, DaveRudy, Mike Saft, and Steve Weiner.

The New Chemical Science and Engineering Technology chapter was produced by various team leaders,who led the development of different sections. Special recognition is given to Bob Dorsch, Jim Trainham,Don McElmore, Miles Drake, Jerry Ebner, Francis Via, Chuck Rader, Jean Futrell, and Hratch Semerjian.This chapter was aided by invaluable writing and editorial assistance of Arnold Eisenberg.

Suzanne Baker and Diana Artemis spent numerous hours rewriting and editing the report. Editorialassistance also was given by Ken Reese and Susan Golden. Deitra Jackson and Susan Blanco are alsoacknowledged for the important administrative support they provided to this project.

The funding to publish this document was provided by the American Chemical Society (including agenerous contribution from the American Chemical Society’s Corporation Associates), the AmericanInstitute of Chemical Engineers, the Chemical Manufacturers Association, the Council for ChemicalResearch, and Price Waterhouse LLP.

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EXECUTIVESUMMARY

Our Challenges

The chemical industry faces heightened challengesas it enters the 21st century. Five major forces areamong those shaping the topography of its businesslandscape:

• increasing globalization of markets,• societal demands for higher environmental

performance,• financial market demands for increased

profitability and capital productivity,• higher customer expectations, and• changing work force requirements.

How the industry meets these challenges will affectthe entire American economy. The U.S. chemicalindustry is the world’s largest producer of chemicals(value shipped, $367.5 billion in 1995), contributingthe largest trade surplus of any non-defense-relatedsector to the U.S. economy ($20.4 billion in 1995),representing 10 percent of all U.S. manufacturing,and employing more than 1 million Americans. Thechemical industry, faced with an ever-changingbusiness environment, must work individually andcollectively to remain a world leader.

Meeting the ChallengesWe believe the chemical industry in the UnitedStates must confront these new market pressureshead-on. With the goal of creating a technology“roadmap” for the chemical industry to follow, weexamined the technical disciplines of new chemicalscience and engineering technology, supply chaintechnology, information systems, and manufacturingand operations. From our assessment of the

industry’s needs in these areas, we determined thatthe chemical industry must accomplish five broadgoals over the next 25 years. It must

• improve operations, with a focus on bettermanagement of the supply chain;

• improve efficiency in the use of raw materials,the reuse of recycled materials, and thegeneration and use of energy;

• continue to play a leadership role in balancingenvironmental and economic considerations;

• aggressively commit to longer term investmentin R&D; and

• balance investments in technology byleveraging the capabilities of government,academe, and the chemical industry as a wholethrough targeted collaborative efforts in R&D.

Steps to Getting ThereTo meet its goals, the U.S. chemical industry shouldaccomplish the following.

Generate and use new knowledge by supportingR&D focused on new chemical science andengineering technologies to develop more cost-efficient and higher performing products andprocesses.

Capitalize on information technology by workingwith academe, federal and national laboratories, andsoftware companies to ensure compatibility and tointegrate computational tools used by the chemicalindustry. Develop partnerships for sharinginformation on automation techniques andadvanced modeling.

Encourage the elimination of barriers tocollaborative precompetitive research byunderstanding legislation and regulations that allowcompanies to work together during the initial stagesof development.

Work to improve the legislative and regulatoryclimate by the reform of programs to emphasizeperformance rather than a specific method ofregulatory compliance, and a greater considerationof cost, benefits, and relative risk.

Improve logistics efficiencies by developing newmethods for managing the supply chain and bysponsoring an effort to shape informationtechnology and standards to meet the industry’smanufacturing and distribution needs.

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Increase agility in manufacturing by planningmanufacturing facilities capable of respondingquickly to changes in the market-place using state-of-the-art measurement tools and other technologiesfor design, development, scale-up, and optimizationof production.

Harmonize standards, where appropriate, byworking with governments within the United Statesand internationally, and with independent standardsgroups on nomenclature, documentation, productlabeling, testing, and packaging requirements.

Create momentum for partnering by encouragingcompanies, government, and academe to leverageeach sector’s unique technical, management, andR&D capabilities to increase the competitiveposition of the chemical industry.

Encourage educational improvements throughthe advancement of strong educational systems andby encouraging the academic community to fosterinterdisciplinary, collaborative research and providebaccalaureate and vocational training throughcurricula that meet the changing demands of theindustry.

Technical Recommendations

TECHNOLOGY AREA 1:NEW CHEMICAL SCIENCE ANDENGINEERING TECHNOLOGY

Chemical science is the most fundamental driver ofadvances within the chemical industry. Maintainingand improving the competitiveness of the U.S.chemical industry requires advances in three areasof chemical science: chemical synthesis,bioprocesses and biotechnology, and materialstechnology.

Chemical Science

CHEMICAL SYNTHESISThe traditional tools of chemical synthesis in usetoday are organic and inorganic synthesis andcatalysis. Synthesis is the efficient conversion ofraw materials such as minerals, petroleum, naturalgases, coal, and biomass into more usefulmolecules and products; catalysis is the process bywhich chemical reactions are either accelerated or

slowed by the addition of a substance that is notchanged in the chemical reaction. Catalysis-basedchemical syntheses account for 60 percent oftoday’s chemical products and 90 percent of currentchemical processes.

To take full advantage of the potential offered inchemical syntheses, industry should work to (1)develop new synthesis techniques incorporating thedisciplines and approaches of biology, physics, andcomputational methods; (2) enhance R&Dcollaborations in surface and catalytic sciencerelevant to commercial products and processes; (3)promote enhanced understanding of thefundamentals in synthesis, processing, andfabrication for structure control of complexmolecular architectures; and (4) supportfundamental studies to advance the development ofchemistry in alternative reaction media (gas phase,water, supercritical fluid, etc.).

BIOPROCESSES AND BIOTECHNOLOGYHumans have used biologically based processes(bioprocesses) since they first made cheese,leavened bread, and brewed spirits. Systematicexploration of biological catalysts (biocatalysts)began approximately 100 years ago with initialstudies of enzymes, protein-based catalysts found inliving organisms. Bioprocesses are increasinglyused to produce chemical products, and there is awhole world of potential biocatalysts to bediscovered.

Each sector of the chemical enterprise has a role toplay in advancing the use of biotechnology. (1)Industry should define R&D necessary to discover,develop, and provide more powerful and efficientbiocatalysts, more effective process technology, andlow-cost raw materials for bio-processes. (2)Academe should broaden the knowledge baserelevant to industrial bioprocesses (such as meta-bolic pathway engineering, enzyme discovery andoptimization, and efficient reaction and separationtechnology) and use results of biotechnologyresearch in health and agriculture to seekdiscoveries in bioprocessing. (3) Governmentshould encourage, support, and participate inprecompetitive biotechnology R&D, while supportinglong-term, high-risk technology development anddemonstration.

MATERIALS TECHNOLOGYThe development of new synthetic materials hasfueled the growth of the chemical industry andrevolutionized our society in the 20th century.

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Replacement of traditional materials such as metals,wood, glass, and natural fibers with syntheticpolymers and composite materials has resulted inproducts with lower weight, better energy efficiency,higher performance and durability, and increaseddesign and manufacturing flexibility.

Further improvements in the design, fabrication, andquality of materials can be made only if industry (1)works together with academe to promoteinterdisciplinary approaches to materials science,including the integration of computationaltechnology; (2) defines key needs in structure–property understanding and fundamentalinformation, which can be used to design and tailormaterials; (3) works with federal laboratories andacademe to develop practical materials synthesisand processing technologies that focus on efficientmanufacture of advanced materials systems; and(4) promotes efforts to define common approachesfor disassembly and reuse of materials.

Enabling Technologies

PROCESS SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING

TECHNOLOGYProcess science and engineering technology(PS&ET)— which includes engineeringtechnologies; engineering science; and engineeringdesign, scale-up, and construction— dates back tothe 1930s and is the foundation for thedevelopment, scale-up, and design of chemicalmanufacturing facilities. When effectively integratedwith basic science and enabling technologies,PS&ET offers great potential for bringing scienceand quantitative understanding to the service of thechemical industry, permitting much higher capitalutilization, improved yields, reduced wasteproduction, and improved protection of humanhealth, safety, and the environment.

To exploit the potential of PS&ET, industry should(1) work with government and academe to developrelevant process software and real-timemeasurement tools; (2) support engineeringresearch in nontraditional reaction and separationsystems (e.g., plasma, microwave, photochemical,biochemical, supercritical, cryogenic, reactiveextraction and distillation, and membrane reactors);and (3) pursue the development of new concepts inflexible manufacturing, process technology for high-performance materials and structures, disassemblyand reuse of materials, solids processing, and“smart” processes.

CHEMICAL MEASUREMENTChemical analysis is a critically important enablingtechnology essential to every phase of chemicalscience, product and process development, andmanufacturing control. New knowledge and insightprovided through chemical measurement greatlyaccelerate progress in chemical science,biotechnology, materials science, and processengineering by providing reliable data to evaluatecurrent and emerging technologies.

To ensure that chemical measurements meet theneeds of the chemical industry in the future, theindustry should (1) promote centers of excellencefocused on chemical measurements and processanalytical chemistry in order to probe molecularprocesses; (2) establish a task force to assess thechemical process industry’s measurement prioritiesand related modeling and database needs; (3)develop instrumentation interfacing standards toenable use of distributed analytical networks andmore efficient data acquisition and control systems;and (4) support development of high-performancespectrometers, as well as robust measurementtechniques for real-time analyses.

COMPUTATIONAL TECHNOLOGIESComputational technologies have a broad range ofapplications, from molecular modeling to processsimulation and control. Today, these technologiesare embodied in almost every aspect of chemicalresearch, development, design, and manufacture.Those most critical to the chemical industry includecomputational molecular science, computationalfluid dynamics (CFD), process modeling, simulation,operations optimization, and control.

In the area of computational technologies, industryshould (1) assess and assign priority to its CFDsimulation needs and explore software paradigmsfor CFD tools; (2) support further development ofhigh-performance desktop workstations, large andfast vector-processor machines, and highly parallelprocessors; (3) encourage improvements in nationalnetworks to allow high-speed communications, on-line collaborations, and efficient data transfer; (4)support experimental validation of, or challenges to,computational results; and (5) pursue public–privatepartnerships for illustrative implementation of largeradvisory systems.

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TECHNOLOGY AREA 2:SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT

The chemical industry has concentrated on scienceand production and also has given substantialattention to manufacturing. But it has given lessattention to the supply chain, defined as the criticallink between the supplier, the producer, and thecustomer. Supply chain management comprises

• planning and processing orders; • handling, transporting, and storing all materials

purchased, processed, or distributed; and• managing inventory.

Today, many estimate the costs associated withsupply chain issues to be approximately 10 percentof the sales value of delivered products domesticallyand as much as 40 percent internationally. Toimprove its efficiency in managing the supply chain,and thus increasing its competitiveness, the industryshould

• encourage implementation of the ChemicalManufacturers Association’s Responsible Care®

initiatives throughout all logistics operations,including third-party service providers;

• encourage the preparation of a benchmarkingstudy to identify best practices and defineperformance targets in supply chainmanagement;

• develop the logistics function to include the useof operations optimization tools on a worldwidebasis;

• work with government to harmonize supplychain issues of packaging, labeling,documentation, handling, storage, and shipping;and

• encourage the development of informationsystems having compatible communications,data transmission, and information processingto support global supply chain activities.

TECHNOLOGY AREA 3:INFORMATION SYSTEMS

Throughout the chemical industry, the ways in whichdata are turned into information and used,managed, transmitted, and stored will be critical toits ability to compete. Improved and enhancedinformation systems are at the very heart of our

vision, which sees the chemical industry operatinghighly efficiently and economically. To facilitate theadvances in information systems required for itsfuture, the industry should achieve the following:

• Encourage technology providers to developopen systems, focusing on the capability ofintegrating specific sets of information intolarger systems. This will require improvementsin data security, quality, and reliability, as wellas data compression technologies.

• Work with government to improve knowledge ofmolecular modeling and simulation as theyapply to the chemical process industry byencouraging the government to enhance thetransfer of process simulation and modelingtechniques to the private sector.

• Encourage the development of standards fortransferring models and model parameters tofacilitate the use of modeling and simulationtechnologies.

• Encourage the development of expert systemsand intelligent decision-support tools that areflexible enough to model multi-national,multiproduct enterprises for use in businessdecision making.

TECHNOLOGY AREA 4:MANUFACTURING ANDOPERATIONS

The revenue-generating capability of the chemicalindustry is derived from its capability to deliverchemicals and materials that satisfy customerneeds. Manufacturing operations play a key role inthat activity. Maintaining and improving thecompetitiveness of the U.S. chemical industry willrequire advances in six areas of manufacturingoperations: (1) customer focus, (2) productioncapability, (3) information and process control, (4)engineering design and construction, (5) improvedsupply chain management, and (6) globalexpansion. To achieve improvements in theseareas, the industry should

• Encourage customer and supplier focus in apartnering fashion with emphasis on reliability ofsupply, continuous improvements in productquality and consistency, and responsiveness tochange.

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• Encourage improvement in productioncapabilities to continuously improve processsafety, reduce the impact of manufacturingprocesses and products on the environment,and speed up access to product and processinformation, thus enabling quick response tochange and easing management ofimprovements.

• Develop the technology to build plants in ashorter time and at lower cost to allowreconfiguration of plants as markets change.

• Enhance the supply chain enterprise system bygiving it a chemical industry focus.

• Expand the capability for global operations andcommerce.

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Chapter 1

INTRODUCTION TOTHE CHEMICAL

INDUSTRY AND ITSCONTRIBUTIONS TO

U.S. SOCIETYThe chemical industry is more diverse than virtuallyany other U.S. industry. Its products areomnipresent. Chemicals are the building blocks forproducts that meet our most fundamental needs forfood, shelter, and health, as well as products vital tothe high technology world of computing,telecommunications, and biotechnology. Chemicalsare a keystone of U.S. manufacturing, essential tothe entire range of industries, such aspharmaceuticals, automobiles, textiles, furniture,paint, paper, electronics, agriculture, construction,appliances, and services. It is difficult to fullyenumerate the uses of chemical products andprocesses, but the following numbers give someindication of the level of diversity1:

More than 70,000 different products are registered.More than 9,000 corporations develop, manufacture,and market products and processes. The U.S.government uses eight standard industrialclassification codes to categorize chemicalcompanies:

• industrial inorganic chemicals;• plastics, materials, and synthetics;

• drugs;• soap, cleaners, and toilet goods;• paints and allied products;• industrial organic chemicals;• agricultural chemicals; and• miscellaneous chemical products.

In short, a world without the chemical industry wouldlack modern medicine, transportation,communications, and consumer products.

WORLD POSITION

The United States is the world’s largest producer ofchemicals. In 1995, some $367 billion worth ofproducts was shipped. This represents about 24percent of the worldwide market, which is valued at$1.3 trillion. Countries that rank next in totalproduction are Japan, Germany, and France. Interms of exports, Germany is currently the globalleader. The United States ranks second, withapproximately 14 percent of total exports worldwide,valued at $60.8 billion in 1995.

NATIONAL POSITION

The U.S. chemical industry runs one of the largesttrade surpluses of any industry sector ($20.4 billionin 1995), and it ranks as the largest manufacturingsector in terms of value added. The more than onemillion employees in the chemical industry enjoy arelatively high standard of living, with salaries inproduction roles averaging approximately one-thirdhigher than in other manufacturing industries.Overall, the chemical industry is the third largestmanufacturing sector in the nation, representingapproximately 10 percent of all U.S. manufacturing.

RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT INTHE CHEMICAL INDUSTRY

The outstanding success of the chemical industry islargely due to scientific and technologicalbreakthroughs and advances, making possible newproducts and processes. The chemical industry now

1Chemical Manufacturers Association. CMA Statistical handbook;

Washington, D.C., 1995, p. 7.

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spends about $17.6 billion annually on R&D2. Infact, according to an Institute for the Future study,the chemical industry is one of the eight mostresearch-intensive industries. The scientific andtechnical research of these industries makes ourlives as Americans safer, longer, easier, and moreproductive.

Through significant investment in R&D, the U.S.chemical industry has led the way in developing andsupplying products that have made our lives better.When one reviews the contributions of the chemicalindustry to our civilization, it becomes clear thatrather than any single individual invention ortechnological breakthrough, it has been theindustry’s overall commitment to R&D that hasrepresented its most significant legacy.

Investment in R&D is the single greatest driver ofproductivity increases, accounting for half or moreof all increases in output per person3. Research anddevelopment is the source of new products thatimprove the quality of life and new processes thatenable firms to reduce costs and become morecompetitive. As we look to the future, it is apparentthat a continued investment in technology isnecessary for industry to meet the needs andexpectations of the next generation. Reaching thegoals of Technology Vision 2020 will requireappropriate levels of support for R&D, the wellspringof future growth.

Compared with R&D investment levels (as apercentage of gross domestic product, GDP) inleading industrial countries, the United States iscurrently only slightly ahead of Germany and Franceand just behind Japan. In terms of nondefense-related R&D, which has more impact on thechemical industry, the United States outspends onlyFrance. Moreover, federal expenditures onnondefense-related R&D have actually fallen as apercentage of GDP over the past three decades.This reduction is a serious threat becausegovernment is the primary source of support forbasic research. Government expenditures, in turn,influence the level of private support for appliedresearch and development. Applied research canonly proceed in directions indicated by basicresearch, and commercialization follows fromapplied research. Exacerbating this situation is thatcompanies appear to be shifting their R&Dinvestments to shorter term R&D.

2U.S. Department of Commerce, Meeting the Challenge: The U.S.

Chemical Industry Faces the 21st Century; January 1996.

3Material in this section is drawn from The Council of Economic

Advisers, “Supporting Research and Development to PromoteEconomic Growth: The Federal Government’s Role,” October 1995.

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Chapter 2

BUSINESS ISSUESFACING THE U.S.

CHEMICAL INDUSTRY

A Time of Dynamic TensionLooking ahead to the 21st century, we see six forceschanging the topography of the business landscape:increasing globalization, sustainability, financialperformance (profitability and capital productivity),customer expectations, changing work forcerequirements, and increased collaboration.

Within this changing landscape, the industrycontinues to both improve its ability to meetcustomer needs and develop pathways forcontinued growth and improved profitability. It iscertain that some paths will lead to new levels ofsuccess, and others will take us to the “dead end” ofdeclining competitiveness. The critical questiontoday is, “Which is which?”

All paths have barriers, but the leadership of thechemical industry is confident that the United Stateshas or can develop the resources necessary to getfrom where the industry is today to where it must bein 2020.

Privately financed scientific R&D conducted bychemical companies has built a strong and vitalchemical industry. Nevertheless, as other nationsenter the global marketplace and major producersbecome more competitive, the current level ofinvestment in R&D may be insufficient to maintain acompetitive edge. Companies alone will be unableto meet the new realities of the 21st century. Partnerships can help to leverage R&D resources inthe interest of industry needs.

The following sections provide a more detailedexamination of the challenges and opportunitiescreated by the forces shaping the chemical industryand the increasingly important role technologicalleadership plays in the outcome.

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19

Chapter 3

ROLE OFTECHNOLOGY

Technology holds promise for positively shapingthe U.S. chemical industry as it adapts to the newglobal business environment requirements forsustainability, financial performance, expandedcustomer expectations, and a more highly skilledwork force.1

INCREASING GLOBALIZATION

We define globalization as the acceleratinginterdependence of nations and private firms.

OpportunitiesTechnological innovation will provide many newmarket opportunities. As industry advances towardour Technology Vision 2020, people, technology,capital, information, and products will move freelyacross international boundaries, minimizing, andsometimes equalizing, past economic andtechnological disparities. Worldwide economicgrowth offers many new opportunities for sellingproducts and services in countries previouslyinaccessible because of geography. To competeeffectively in foreign markets, localmanufacturing is important and will increase thepotential markets for U.S.-owned foreign affiliates,which generated sales of $186 billion in 1992.

Impact of TechnologySuccess in capturing new, emerging markets willdepend on the industry’s ability to compete indifferent environments. Threatened by what someeconomists forecast as an inevitable decline in theU.S. share of world output and trade, the chemicalindustry can develop competitive, advancedmanufacturing technologies, improve logistics andmanagement of supply chains, and create newproducts that support the needs of customersglobally.

SUSTAINABILITY

We define sustainability as technologicaldevelopment that meets the economic andenvironmental needs of the present while enhancingthe ability of future generations to meet their ownneeds.

OpportunitiesWhile the challenges of sustainability are significant,there are also major opportunities for growth as thechemical industry advances through the nextquarter-century. As world population increases, thechemical industry can serve more customers withhigher quality, higher performing products andservices, while demonstrating responsiblestewardship of our planet.

With the U.S. chemical industry’s commitment toResponsible Care® , the nation is ideally positionedto bring into reality the technology vision of anindustry that is a welcome neighbor— one thatprotects environmental quality, improves economicwell-being, and promotes a higher quality of life.

Impact of TechnologyThe chemical industry now has the opportunity toaccelerate its development of advancedmanufacturing technologies and new chemistry andrelated technologies that use materials and energymore efficiently.

U.S. companies also have an opportunity to build ontheir current dominance in the relatively new field ofenvironmental technology. Environmentaltechnologies make sustainable developmentpossible by reducing risk, enhancing costeffectiveness, improving process efficiency, andcreating products and processes that areenvironmentally beneficial or benign. The worldmarket for environmental technologies is growingrapidly, forecasted to increase from $300 billion in

1For further details on trends affecting the chemical industry, refer

to the U.S. Department of Commerce Report, Meeting theChallenge: The U.S. Chemical Industry Faces the 21st Century,January 1996.

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1992 to $425 billion in 1997. U.S. companies makeup the largest portion of the industry, withapproximately 45 percent of the global market.

FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE

Companies are increasingly being judged by theirability to create products that generate revenues tosatisfy stockholder’s profitability expectations. Theemphasis on short-term profitability has improvedstockholders’ satisfaction, but is a significant barrierto funding long-term R&D.

Impact of TechnologyThe chemical industry now has the opportunity todevise strategies to achieve targeted short-termreturns while at the same time attracting the capitalneeded for investment in longer term projects andfacilities. Appropriate, strategically driveninvestment in R&D and new technologies, such asthose described below, will continue to drive theindustry toward unprecedented levels of productivityand return on capital.

R&D is the single greatest driver of productivityincreases. Investment in advanced manufacturingtechnologies, logistics and management of thesupply chain, information technology, and newchemistry and engineering technologies are vital forachieving our goal of leading the manufacturingsector in profitability.

CUSTOMER EXPECTATIONS

Responding to needs of customers in real timeincreasingly defines financial success for both thecustomer and the chemical producer.

OpportunitiesAs the values and structure of business shift, thechemical industry has unprecedented opportunitiesto develop new markets and forge even strongerrelationships with its customers.

Realizing the technology goals of Technology Vision2020 will require that the industry relates to itscustomers in new ways. These changes include

• improved business relationships developedthrough new partnerships between suppliers andcustomers,

• cooperation to remove inefficiencies in bothsupplier and customer operations,

• collaboration to reduce environmental impact,and

• enhanced performance for customers and forsociety as a whole, through commitment tocontinuous improvement.

The companies that gain and retain market sharewill be those companies that meet changingcustomer expectations by

• increasing responsiveness, especially in termsof reduced product cycle time, focused onadding value to customers’ products;

• continuously improving product quality; and• continuously improving service.

As customers aggressively expand and unify theiroperations globally, chemical producers in theUnited States must meet constantly evolvingmaterial specifications. From “just-in-time” deliveryto higher quality and increased technical support,customers are requiring more from their chemicalsuppliers.

Impact of TechnologyTo meet expanding customer expectations, theindustry needs to apply innovative technologythroughout all phases of R&D, production, anddistribution. Improvements in logistics and supplychain management will enable manufacturers todeliver products to customers more efficiently and atlower cost. New operations and manufacturingtechnologies will ensure highest product quality, andmore sophisticated information systems will linkcompanies to their customers. New chemistry andengineering will provide products that add value forcustomers and, in turn, for their customers. Over all,technological advances will reduce productdevelopment response times and help industry meetcustomers’ rising expectations.

CHANGING WORK FORCEREQUIREMENTS

Because of all the forces creating change inindustry, particularly having to do with the nature ofthe manufacturing process and facilities (as we willdetail below), more highly skilled workers will berequired for tomorrow’s work force.

The influx of computers and automation will makeplants easier to run but will require a moretechnically advanced understanding of the process.

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The increasing complexity of technology and therapid pace of technological change placesincreasing demands on employees across the workforce, from the scientist at the laboratory bench tothe operator on the plant floor.

The hallmark of the future work force will beflexibility, not an assault on jobs. Worker training willbe an ongoing part of every employee’s career. Thisdynamic has implications for educational curriculaand programs of the future.

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THE PATH TOWARDTECHNOLOGY

VISION 2020:TECHNICAL ISSUES

This section looks closely at four disciplines that willdetermine the progress of the chemical industry:new chemical science and engineering technology,supply chain management, information systems,and manufacturing and operations.

Twenty-five years ago, few people could haveimagined many of the technological advances thathave led to tools taken for granted today, from theomnipresent microwave oven to the immediacy ofelectronic mail. We are confident that during thenext 25 years, similarly dramatic new technologieswill emerge, as the needs and challenges are metand the challenges associated with them areovercome.

Here are some glimpses of the future, as we lookahead to the year 2020, when chemical science andengineering technology will have become thedriving force for creating sustainable value andgrowth in the U.S. chemical industry.

We describe current technological conditions,identify research needs and challenges, envisionoptimal future conditions, and offerrecommendations to achieve these advances ineach area. The sections delineate not only the newcapabilities required to reach this vision of thechemical industry’s future, but also the step changeimprovements and enhancements that are just ascrucial in moving forward.

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Chapter 4

NEW CHEMICALSCIENCE ANDENGINEERINGTECHNOLOGY

The Three Areas ofChemical Science

CHEMICAL SYNTHESIS

Current StateThe traditional tools of chemical synthesis in usetoday are organic and inorganic synthesis andcatalysis. Synthesis is the efficient conversion ofraw materials such as minerals, petroleum, naturalgases, coal, and biomass into more usefulmolecules and products; catalysis is the process bywhich chemical reactions are either accelerated orslowed down by the addition of a substance that isnot changed in the chemical reaction.

Advances in core strategies, such as those insynthesis or catalysis, can have huge impact. Forinstance, a major breakthrough in catalysis was thediscovery of coordination anionic catalysis, whichwon Karl Ziegler and Guilio Natta a Nobel Prize in1953 and opened up the possibility of developingmaterials based on olefins. This catalytic discoveryled to the creation of a multibillion-dollar-per-yearmarket, predominantly in two polyolefins—polyethylene and polypropylene— including theproduction of everything from common garbagebags and children’s toys to high-tech internalautomotive parts and life-saving medical devices.

What may be surprising to many nonscientists is thefact that the vast majority of products made todayare being produced with traditional synthesismethods developed between 40 and 50 years ago.Though classical organic and inorganic synthesesare used widely to support much of the chemicalindustry, catalysis-based chemical synthesesaccount for 60 percent of today’s chemical productsand 90 percent of current chemical processes.Given this dominance, catalysis has emerged as theprimary focus of development in chemical synthesis.In fact, innovations in catalysis have driven manyincremental improvements in synthesis.

Needs and ChallengesTo advance chemical science, the industry mustmove beyond the current state-of-the-art insynthesis and catalysis. A summary of industryneeds and challenges follows.1

Develop new synthetic techniques incorporatingthe disciplines and approaches of biology,physics, and computational methods.Meeting this need will require the furtherdevelopment of synthesis tools that permit rapidcreation of unique molecules, using

• a variety of new combinatorial techniques,• new computational techniques to guide

synthesis by theory and molecular modeling,• techniques to conduct molecule-specific

measurements, and• further development of chemistries using natural

processes such as photochemistry andbiomimetic syntheses.

Develop new catalysts and reaction systems toprepare economical and environmentally safeprocesses with lowest life-cycle costs.This includes the need for new and improvedcatalysts that can be applied to existing processes,such as

• viable solid acid and base catalysts to replacethe toxic and corrosive mineral acids and basesfor organic syntheses,

• methods of synthesis and catalysis to convertproduct molecules and polymers back to usefulstarting materials, and

1See the “Computational Technologies” section (pg. 34) and the

Information Systems chapter (pg. 43), which describe the impact ofcomputational technologies, and specific “Needs and Challenges”sections on product and process development.

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• catalysts with increased molecularity, andcatalysts with long life and self-repairingabilities.

Develop chemistry for the use of alternative rawmaterials.This will require the development of new catalystsand systems for carrying out reactions in alternativereaction media, specifically new catalysts for theefficient conversion of biomass and unusedbyproducts into useful raw materials, and newchemistries based on abundant materials, such asCO2.

Develop new synthesis tools to efficiently createmultifunctional materials that can bemanufactured with attractive economics.Cost-effective techniques are needed to synthesizeorganic- and inorganic-based materials, allowingcontrol at the molecular level, using

• new catalysts for customizing polymerproperties (composition, stereochemistry) duringsynthesis;

• molecular self-assembly methods, chemistries,and techniques;

• new inorganic/organic hybrid chemistry;• use of biologically based pathways; and• new organometallic compounds and clusters,

inorganic polymers, metal alloys, metallicglasses, and sol-gel-based materials.

Develop techniques for stereospecificity, orprecision in spatial arrangements of molecules.Achieving this will require catalysts for reactionpathways focused on ultrahigh selectivity, highermolecularity, higher regio- and stereospecificity, andasymmetric and chiral syntheses.

Develop new cost-effective techniques to createa broader variety of molecular architectures inalternative reaction media.New chemistry and fundamental understanding isneeded for application in

• water-based systems,• gas-phase systems,• reactions carried out in bulk, and• supercritical reaction media.

TECHNOLOGY VISION 2020New CapabilitiesInterdisciplinary activities will create new fields oftechnology.

Final product performance can be developedthrough control of structure and properties at themolecular level.

Multiple product functionalities will be routinelycoupled in single, or perhaps complex, molecules ormolecular architectures.

Chemists will apply natural processes, includingphoto- and biomimetic chemistry, to industrialchemicals and materials, achieving widespreadeconomic efficiency and improved process safety.

Surface science and supporting engineeringsciences will be able to define, control, andmanipulate chemistries of active sites at the single-site level.

HOW TO GET THEREResearch can be conducted by scientists working inindustry-wide collaborative research teams involvingscientists and engineers from companies,universities, and government laboratories in jointefforts reflecting levels of unprecedentedcollaboration. Advances will depend on enhancedcollaboration among scientists and engineersworking in fundamental and applied research insurface and catalytic science relevant to commercialprocesses and products.

Research can become more interdisciplinary,integrating knowledge from surface, biological,catalytic, and traditional chemical sciences todevelop manufacturing technologies for ultrahighselectivity and chirally, stereo-, and regio-selectiveproducts.

Similarly, education and training for chemists canbecome more interdisciplinary. Curricula for trainingresearch chemists can be restructured, refocused,and intensified to highly integrate the disciplines ofbiology, biochemistry, physics, and computationalmethods.

Research can accelerate the understanding anddevelopment of novel synthesis techniques usingprocesses such as biomimetic synthesis andphotochemistry.

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Research in computational chemistry can besupported by supplying fundamental knowledge ofstructure–property–performance relationshipsthrough the development of accurate predictivetools and timely incorporation of these tools intesting and validating models.

Improvements and EnhancementsAdvances in chemistry will be characterized by ashortened and enhanced value-adding chain, thecontrol of chemical reactions and structuredevelopment at the molecular level, and fewer stepsfor processing.

Engineered systems will support the adoption ofnontraditional synthetic pathways.

Scientists will be able to synthesize andmanufacture catalysts and their products with littleor no postprocessing for separation, purification, orisolation.

Chemists working in the area of synthesis will haveready access to newly applicable combinatorialtechniques.

Life-cycle concepts will be integrated into productand process selection criteria. When favorable,highly selective natural processes will be translatedinto analogues for versatile commercial processes.

Plans for disassembly and reuse will be an integralpart of product development.

HOW TO GET THERECenters of excellence are needed to promotedevelopment of fundamentals in synthesis,processing, and fabrication that result in the abilityto control structures at the molecular level ineconomically efficient ways.

Research will focus on the translation of knowledgeand techniques from the biological sciences, amongothers, to apply combinatorial methods in thebroader field of chemical synthesis.

Scientists can develop a set of life-cycle conceptsthat can be accepted nationally and industry-wide.

Investment in new engineering technologies, suchas reactor design and separations systems, shouldbe cost-effective and environmentally protective.

BIOPROCESSES ANDBIOTECHNOLOGY

Bioprocesses and biotechnology is the second areain the chemical sciences where advances are criticalto the industry if it is to maintain and improvecompetitiveness.

Current StateHumans have used biologically based processes(bioprocesses) since they first made cheese,leavened bread, and brewed spirits. Systematicexploration of biological catalysts (biocatalysts)began approximately 100 years ago with studies ofenzymes, the protein-based catalysts found in livingorganisms. A wide range of bioprocesses are nowused, sometimes complementing traditional processchemistry and sometimes offering alternativeprocess chemistries.

Currently, bioprocesses account for commercialproduction of more than 30 billion pounds per yearof chemical products, including organic and aminoacids, antibiotics, industrial and food enzymes, finechemicals, as well as active ingredients for cropprotection, pharmaceutical products, and fuelethanol. These products account for almost $10billion in annual sales at the bulk level, but arelargely unrecognized by consumers, who buy themas ingredients or components of products with othernames. Examples include additives to motor fuelsthat reduce air pollution, enzymes that clean clothesbetter or make fabrics softer, food ingredients andpackaging that keep food fresh and safer, and theactive components in drugs that restore health.

The potential for discovering new biocatalysts islargely untapped, since 99 percent of the microbialworld has been neither studied nor harnessed todate.2 Recognized today through their genetic code(DNA sequence), these members of the Archaealand Eubacterial domains3 are expected to providebiocatalysts of much broader utility as this microbialdiversity is further understood.

2DeLong, E. F.; Wu, K. Y.; Prezelin, B. B.; Jovine, R.V.M. Nature

1994, Vol. 371, p. 695. Amann, R.; Ludwig, W.; Schleifer, K-H. Microbiol. 1995, Vol. 59, p. 143.

3Woese, C. R.; Kandler, O.; Wheelis, M. L. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci.

1990, Vol. 87, p. 4576. Barnes, S. M.; Fundyga, R. E.; Jeffries, M.W.; Pace, N. R. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. 1994, Vol. 91, p. 1609.

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Needs and ChallengesGiven the breadth of possible research, settingpriorities in biotechnology may be most critical. Theimproved performance of bio-catalysts andimproved biochemical processing are two areasholding great promise for the chemical industry.

Improved performance of biocatalystsImproved biocatalysts are needed for biochemicalroutes to higher performance chemical productsmade by lower cost bioprocess alternatives. Morepowerful enzymes will provide the basis forimproved biocatalysts; increasing the yield, rate,and selectivity of bioprocesses while retaining theadvantages of sustainable chemistry. That is, inaddition to increasing productivity and speed ofbioprocesses, these improved catalysts will bettertarget the desired chemical reaction. They will alsoallow better use of lower cost feedstocks frombiomass and greater stereochemical specificity. Thisultimately results in bioprocesses that improveprotection of human health, safety, and theenvironment.

Achieving these advances will involve overcomingchallenges in the following areas:

• New enzymes must be isolated from thecurrently unexplored realms of microbes beingdiscovered through studies of biodiversity.

• Substrate specificity (a biocatalyst’s preferencefor a specific molecular structure, from amongmany similar structures, as its raw material) andactivity of known enzymes must be enhanced.Using the techniques of molecular biology andtargeted molecular evolution, researchers willachieve analogous improvements that increasethe robustness of the catalysts, permitting abroader operating range of pH, temperature,and media composition that is both water- andnonwater-based.

• Sequential enzymatic pathways (metabolicpathways) that perform multiple synthetic stepsin industrial microorganisms must beengineered to make new products through lowercost and more efficient processes. Theincreased yields, reaction rates, and finalproduct concentration in the production mediawill be key elements for achieving theseenhanced processes.

Improved biochemical processingImprovements in biochemical processing willdepend on enhancements in fundamentalbiochemical engineering capabilities and applied

engineering skills. Such improvements wouldinclude

• on-line measurements and process controlmodels for combined biological and chemicalprocesses;

• fully effective continuous processes for thebiological reactions;

• better processes at the interface between thebiological and chemical operations within abioprocess;

• more effective separation processes that, forexample, address the acid– base–salt usechallenges faced in the production of chargedmolecules; and

• successful biological reaction and productextraction processes yielding greaterproductivity and lower investment.

TECHNOLOGY VISION 2020New CapabilitiesThe DNA of all industrially importantmicroorganisms and plants will be sequenced andgene structures defined, thereby permitting optimalefficiency of metabolic pathways.

High-value-in-use molecules and structures will bedesigned, some of biological or biochemical origin.

Metabolic pathways will be thoroughly understoodand fully functional; quantitative models will beavailable.

Very low cost raw materials for bioprocesses will bederived from agricultural and forestry wastes and, toan increasing extent, cultivated feedstock crops.

New capabilities, including biotechnology-basedprocesses, will enable the manufacture of chemicalswith greater energy efficiency and environmentalstewardship.

HOW TO GET THEREFully automated sequencing of very large genes willbe complemented by information systems that offereasy access to the data obtained.

Molecular biology will have gained exquisite controlof the magnitude and timing of activating genes toproduce enzymes. The coordinated function ofgenes and enzymes in forming a pathway will bewell understood.

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Quantitative models will be constructed based onthe knowledge derived from this work.

Very low cost raw materials for bioprocesses willrequire coincident improvements in disparate fields,such as

• plant biology and stock improvement technologyfor farm and forest,

• science and engineering for separatingfeedstock values from plant-based materials;and

• recovery of feedstock energy values fromresiduals of the plant materials.

Improvements and EnhancementsBioprocesses for chemical manufacture will play amore prominent role as we approach 2020.

Known biocatalysts will be improved through theapplication of molecular biology, genomesequencing, metabolic pathway engineering, anddirected molecular evolution. These improvementswill lead to further use of biological processes,based on domestic and renewable materials.

Bioprocesses will increasingly be used to produce abroader range of chemicals.

HOW TO GET THEREResearch teams will integrate basic sciences toconceive, design, synthesize, and manufacturehigh-value-in-use molecules and structures, some ofbiochemical origin and others based on afundamental understanding of biology.

Scientists and engineers will develop betterstrategies in several areas, including

• highly efficient processes for convertingbiomass or cultivated feedstock crops into verylow cost raw materials for bioprocesses;

• more efficient concepts and designs formicrobial bioprocess reaction steps such asmedia sterilization, oxygen transport, agitation,and temperature control; and

• robust techniques for separating biocatalysts(whole-cell or supported enzymes) from processmedia and separating the desired product fromthe spent medium. The separation must becharacterized by high levels of purity andrelatively low cost.

Industry, academe, and government must togethersupport the research and educational efforts that will

lead to broader economic viability and publicacceptance of bioprocesses as the source ofsustainable, higher performance chemical productsand a globally competitive chemical industry. Thiswill require that scientists in industry clearly definethe challenges in precompetitive science andtechnology that, when met, will provide morepowerful and efficient biocatalysts, more effectiveprocess technology, and very low cost rawmaterials, particularly domestic and renewableones.

Companies can sponsor and pursue the proprietaryresearch that will yield higher performance productsand processes.

Scientists and engineers in universities shouldbroaden the knowledge applicable to industrialbioprocesses. This would include work in thefollowing areas:

• metabolic pathway engineering and thequantitative modeling of fluxes through thepathways,

• enzyme discovery and optimization throughbiodiversity and directed evolution, and

• more efficient reaction and separationtechnology.

Government can encourage, support, andparticipate in the precompetitive efforts describedabove, while supporting long-term, high-risktechnology development and project demonstration.

MATERIALS TECHNOLOGY

Materials technology is the third area in thechemical sciences where advances are important.

Current StateThe development of new synthetic materials hasfueled the growth of the chemical industry andrevolutionized our society in the 20th century.Replacement of traditional materials such as metals,wood, glass, and natural fibers with syntheticpolymers and composite materials has resulted inproducts with lower weight, better energy efficiency,higher performance and durability, and increaseddesign and manufacturing flexibility.

Biomedical polymers have enhanced health, withuses in diagnostics, medical and prosthetic devices,and membranes. Synthetic materials are animportant component of the chemical industry and

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are critical to the aerospace, automotive,construction, electronics, energy, metals, and healthcare industries.4

Recent examples of progress in materials arenoteworthy. During the past several years, advancesin composites, including mixtures of polymers andfibers, and metals and ceramics, have extended therange of performance and applications of thesematerials. New advances in catalysis are upgradingcommon polymers into materials offeringuncommon performance. Tailored blends ofpolymers and other materials have expanded theirapplications beyond the range accessible withsingle-polymer systems.

Emerging concepts in materials R&D includeincreasing the functionality of materials, extendingtheir performance range, and using new synthetictechniques. Smart or triggered materials areincreasing materials functionality, and theirproperties include the ability to self-repair, toactuate, and to transduce.

Examples of smart materials includeelectrochromics, controlled-release devices, electro-and magneto-rheological materials, and shapememory alloys.

Advances in modifying materials surfaces andinterfaces are also being achieved through newcoating technologies, film, self-assembly, orreactive approaches using ion beams, among othermethods. Also under development are materials thathave special attributes, such as the ability towithstand superhigh temperatures, photovoltaiccapabilities, and superconductivity.

Additionally, bioengineering with plants andbacteria, microwave-enhanced chemistry, and newcompositional concepts— such as hybridorganic–inorganic systems and self-reinforcingsystems— have emerged recently as routes tohigher performance.

These recent developments will lead to higherperforming materials produced at lower cost. Newapproaches to the design and fabrication ofmaterials will facilitate the incorporation of life-cycleconsiderations into materials design and will enablethe reuse or disassembly of many materials used today.

Needs and ChallengesPrediction of materials propertiesThe highest priority challenge is the prediction ofmaterials properties from the molecular levelthrough the macroscopic level. This includes thedevelopment of a fundamental understanding ofstructure– property relationships and computationaltechniques.

Advances needed include the ability to

• rapidly develop new products with desiredperformance at lowest cost,

• develop tools to integrate material performanceneeds with emerging process and raw materialalternatives, and

• develop new ways to use natural and otherrenewable sources to create materials that canachieve the required performance.

Synthesis technology for precise manipulationof material structuresDevelop new practicable synthesis technology forprecise manipulation of materialstructures— including bulk, surface, andinterfaces— from nanoscale to macroscale for theeconomical synthesis, processing, andmanufacturing of lower cost, higher performancematerials. These technologies may include

• molecular self-assembly,• net shape synthesis,• biomimetic synthesis, and• materials catalysis.

Enhanced performance in materialsFind new ways to improve and develop enhancedperformance in materials in the following categories:

• sensors for chemical process industry use;• materials with enhanced environmental stability

and durability and strength-to-weight ratios;• electrical and optical materials;• triggered or smart materials (for disassembly,

self-repair, self-indication, actuation,transducing, etc.);

• biocompatible systems;• higher temperature systems for intermaterial

replacement, including composites;• materials for separation processes; and• membranes for chemical processing, packaging,

medical, and other separations applications.

4National Research Council. “Materials Science and Engineering

for the 1990’s,” National Academy Press, 1989.

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Develop routes for step change improvementsin performance of materials systems with theuse of new additive technology.We can look for improvements in these areas:

• new nontoxic additives for the polymer industry,including plasticizers, flow aids, colorants, flameretardants, etc.;

• additives for the polymer industry that cantolerate high temperatures, including plasticizersand flow additives; and

• alternative approaches to additive technologythat include increasing functionality and usinglow-cost synthesis routes.

Develop technology in integrated materials andprocesses for reuse and disassembly.

TECHNOLOGY VISION 2020New CapabilitiesScientists will be able to design materials, andpredict their properties, from the molecular levelthrough the macroscopic level, relying on easy-to-use computational tools.

Scientists will be able to manipulate materialsprecisely— from nanoscale to macro-scale— for theeconomical synthesis, processing, andmanufacturing of lower cost, higher performancematerials.

New chemical structures have been developed thatmeet requirements presently provided usingadditives, mixtures, blends, etc.

There is increased acceptance of methods fordisassembly and reuse, and life-cycleconsiderations are part of materials development.

HOW TO GET THERECompanies can collaboratively define fundamentalstructure–property needs to guide academe towardincreasing scientific understanding and control ofthe functional properties of materials.

Industry can increase collaboration in guidance ofcurrent development platforms or create new waysto accelerate the collaborative development of toolsfor modeling and prediction in materials systems.

Academe and industry should create and supportinterdisciplinary programs or centers focused onsynthesis of novel materials with controlled bulk,

surface, and interface structures, from nanoscale tomacroscale.

Research programs that develop alternativepathways to enhancing materials performance,currently achieved with additives, should besupported.

Industry, academe, and government should workcollaboratively to define protocols for disassemblyand reuse and support molecular design andsynthesis programs oriented toward these protocols.

Companies should consider early integration ofdisassembly and reuse concepts in new materialsdevelopment programs.

Early integration of bioresponse models (forexample, toxicity predictions) should beincorporated with molecular, systems, and syntheticmodeling.

Improvements and EnhancementsEnhanced education will ensure the availability ofcritical tools and integrated resources and programsthat respond to industry’s needs.

Industrial organizations focus on cross-disciplinaryteams and their abilities to rapidly translate andassimilate new knowledge and tools.

Specialty materials are cost competitive with lowerfunctioning materials on a systems basis.

HOW TO GET THEREScientists in universities should integratemathematics, physics, and chemistry curricula todevelop an interdisciplinary approach for a newmaterials curriculum focused on the development ofstructure–property relationships and the design andsynthesis of both new and existing materials. Thisnew materials education should integratecomputational methods with traditional curricula.

University researchers should develop appropriatescience for a mechanistic understanding of newfeatures of materials science.

Companies should restructure industrial organizations toaccommodate an appropriate cross-disciplinary ability totranslate new interdisciplinary knowledge.

New processing technologies that focus on economicbulk-processing technologies applied to a variety of newand traditional materials systems should be developed.

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Enabling TechnologiesThe industry’s future will be shaped, in part, byadvances in its enabling technologies that improvethe application of its fundamental sciences. Theseinclude (1) process science and engineeringtechnologies, (2) chemical measurements, and (3)computational technologies.

PROCESS SCIENCE ANDENGINEERING TECHNOLOGY

Process science and engineering technology(PS&ET) dates back to the 1930s and is thefoundation for the development, scale-up, anddesign of chemical manufacturing facilities. PS&ETconsists of engineering technologies; engineeringscience; and engineering design, scale-up, andconstruction. Taken together, these provide thebasis for manufacturing excellence and sustainablecompetitive advantage.

Engineering technologies include environmentalprocessing, hazards evaluation and control,materials engineering, particle processing, processcontrol, and unit operations. Although anunderstanding of the first principles of the scienceunderlying these technologies is beginning tomature, the technologies are generally applied usingempirical, semiquantitative techniques that permitthe safe development, design, and operation of ourchemical processes. Engineering science includesthermodynamics, kinetics, and mechanisms;transport phenomena; and reaction engineering. Engineering design, scale-up, and constructioninclude process synthesis and conceptual design,process development and scale-up, and engineeringfacilities design and construction. A continuumextends from process synthesis to production designand construction.

Current StateThe application of PS&ET is somewhat fragmented,often sequential, and frequently driven byimmediate business needs. These technologies arealso applied to operating manufacturing facilities toreduce the operating costs, to incrementallyincrease capacity, and to comply with ever-changingfederal, state, and local regulations. Integration ofbasic science and enabling technologies withPS&ET offers great potential for bringing scienceand quantitative understanding to the service of thechemical industry, permitting much higher capital

utilization, improved yields, reduced wasteproduction, and improved protection of humanhealth, safety, and the environment. All this resultsin greater international competitiveness.

The supporting tools that would permit a morefundamental application of these technologies arejust becoming available. A wealth of scienceunderlies the fields of engineering science, and themeasurement, modeling, and simulation toolsneeded to apply this knowledge to engineeringproblems are generally available. Industry andacademe have collaborated effectively to developboth the science and the tools. Advances incomputational technology, coupled with newmeasurement techniques, have provided thesupport for simulation and analysis of problems ofever-increasing complexity and commercialimportance. However, as described in theInformation Systems chapter (pg. 43), improvedsystems integration capabilities are needed toeffectively apply these technologies.

The current state of engineering design, scale-up,and construction technologies varies fromembryonic to very mature. Process synthesis is arelatively new development that is permitting earlyassessment and evaluation of the manufacturabilityof products resulting from potential new chemistries.While much of the work in this area is still focusedin academe, some companies are using thetechniques effectively.

The basic approach to process development andscale-up remains much as it was a decade agoexcept that new computational and simulation toolsare being employed to accelerate the rate ofcommercialization. Facilities design andconstruction is a relatively mature technology, but isbenefiting from advances in logistics management.Since most of the cost of a manufacturing facility isincurred during development, design, andconstruction, significant effort is underway toimprove the effectiveness of these activities and thecapital productivity of the resulting manufacturingfacilities.

Beginning to emerge are concepts in nontraditionalchemical processing, such as bioprocessing,recycling, expanded use of water-based processes,cryogenic processing, and new reactor andseparations technologies.

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Needs and ChallengesFuture advances in PS&ET will require collaborativeefforts of interdisciplinary research teams focusedon the following “Needs and Challenges.” Refer tothe Information Systems and Manufacturing andOperations chapters of this report for additionalinsight on PS&ET needs.

The development of appropriate designprinciples, tools, systems, and infrastructures toaccommodate a variety of improvements to meetcurrent and emerging needs

• Reduction of the commercialization process fornew products and processes to less than threeyears (from product synthesis through plantconstruction)

• Development of an economically viable processtechnology for high-performance materials andstructures such as ceramics, composites, andelectro- and photoactive polymers Improvement in solids-processing efficiency

• Integration of process control and optimizationfor plantwide and multisite implementation

• Integration of reactor and separation systemssuch as reactive distillation or extraction,membrane reactors, and supercritical fluidsystems

• Development of production planning,scheduling, and optimization tools that coverany business’s value-adding chain

• Production of reactors for new, emergingprocess chemistries including nontraditionalmedia, such as plasma, biochemical andmicrowave media, and supercritical fluids

• Development of smart processes that includebiomimetic control schemes

• Improvement of manufacturing processflexibility

• Production of existing and new products thatreduce significant overall waste, optimize cost,and minimize environmental impact

• Development of disassembly procedures forrecovery or reuse of materials

Meeting these needs will require advances incomputational technologies in combination with newmeasurement techniques to meet the demands ofincreasingly sophisticated simulation and analysis oftechnical problems.

Incomplete knowledge of the particulate processA major area of weakness is the current incompleteknowledge of the particulate process, which isextremely important because a high percentage ofthe chemical industry’s products and processesinvolve handling solids.

Improving manufacturing flexibilityProcess engineers and scientists are facing thechallenge of improving manufacturing flexibilitywhile reducing the capital investment needed tobuild effective manufacturing facilities.

TECHNOLOGY VISION 2020In the future, process design will be viewed morecomprehensively and will focus on the principles ofconcurrent engineering, designing from firstprinciples, improved energy efficiency, and theprotection of human health, safety, and theenvironment.

New CapabilitiesOpen architecture software tools will be developedto permit rapid “plug-in’’ integration of tools and datafrom a variety of sources, along with a consistentuser interface for

• rapid selection of chemistry;• physical property databases (thermodynamic,

kinetic, and transport) or ways to computevalues for commercially important systems;

• rapid product and process development thatoptimizes technology options, manufacturability,environmental and safety issues, and financialperformance;

• solids processing;• plantwide process control and multisite

optimization; and• production planning, scheduling, and

optimization of value-adding chain.

Traditional quality control laboratories will bereplaced by real-time, continuous, in-processmeasurement of composition and properties.

Improvements and EnhancementsMany new commercial processes will use recycledraw materials as feedstocks.

Much of industry’s production capacity will becharacterized by new, economic, high-yield andhigh-quality processes with improved environmentalimpact.

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Many new commercial processes will be based onnontraditional chemistry. They will include plasma,microwave, photochemical, biochemical,supercritical, and cryogenic processes.

HOW TO GET THEREThe development of relevant software and real-timemeasurement tools can be supported by funding forbroad-based consortia, coordinated among industry,commercial vendors, federal laboratories, anduniversity researchers.

Fundamental engineering research can besupported on nontraditional reaction and separationsystems, such as plasma, microwave,photochemical, biochemical, supercritical,cryogenic, reactive extraction and distillation, andmembrane reactors. This research can be supportedon flexible manufacturing, high-performancematerials and structures, disassembly of materials,solids processing, and smart processes.

CHEMICAL MEASUREMENT

Current StateChemical analysis is a critically important enablingtechnology essential to every phase of chemicalscience, product and process development, andmanufacturing control. New knowledge and insightsabout existing and new systems, developed as aresult of advances in chemical measurement overthe past two decades, have greatly acceleratedprogress in chemical science, biotechnology,materials science, and process engineering.

Impressive achievements have been made in theresolution, sensitivity, and specificity of chemicalanalysis. The conduct of analytical chemistry hasbeen transformed by advances in high-fieldsuperconducting magnets, multiple-wavelengthlasers, multiplex array detectors, atomic-force andscanning–tunneling microscopes, non-scanningspectral analysis (for example, Fourier transform),and the integration of computers withinstrumentation.

The recent extension of these methods to thedetection and spectral characterization of molecularstructure at the atomic level shows that the ultimatelimit of specificity and sensitivity of chemicalmeasurements can actually be reached in tightlyspecified experiments.

More broadly, the inclusion of analytical specialistsas full partners has been shown to greatly enhancethe efficiency of research teams in chemicalsynthesis, surface science, catalysis, nanostructurescience and technology, and environmentalchemistry. Real-time control and refinement ofprocess variables can be achieved withsophisticated analytical instrumentation.

Comprehensive compositional analysis is seldomused in chemical manufacturing process control.Multistep protocols, requiring skilled technical labor,are required to obtain accurate compositional datafor process monitoring. Real-time analyticalmeasurements are not generally available, eitheron-line or off-line. Most compositionalmeasurements are used to provide postproductionquality control assessment and demonstrate wastedischarge compliance.

Needs and ChallengesWhile significant progress has been made in movingprocess analytical measurements from thelaboratory to the manufacturing line, more real-worldchemical measurements are still conducted off-line.Most of the more spectacular recent achievementsin this area have been made by highly skilledscientists using one-of-a-kind instruments. Theisolation of sophisticated methods of chemicalanalysis from the environments in which they aremost needed— ranging from R&D laboratoriesthrough manufacturing facilities— is a majorlimitation in present-day chemical measurements.Both state-of-the-art research-grade instruments andlaboratory proto-types often lack the robustness,sophistication, and general utility required foreffective, widespread use by nonspecialists.Advances are needed to meet challenges in threedistinct, but related, areas of PS&ET measurement.

Highly sensitive, precise, and accuratemeasurement technology needed to probemolecular processes in the laboratory

• Nanotrace analysis. These chemical analysistechniques will provide information atnanometer-scale spatial resolution with ultra-high sensitivity and selectivity, using electronbeam, ion beam, and surface spectroscopies.To conduct nanotrace analysis, non-scanning(transform, array detector) spectrometers arerequired. Also needed are methods for samplingand characterizing heterogeneous materials in

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small sampling volumes, includingcharacterization of interfacial phenomena,particulates, and aerosols.

• Time-resolved measurements. These areneeded for detailed studies of the dynamics ofreactions, interfaces, adsorption and desorptionphenomena, catalysis, and drug release usingspectroscopic techniques capable of detectingsingle molecules and molecular-scaleaggregates and following the time dependenceof chemical reaction, molecular motion, andconfiguration change with picosecondresolution.

• Macromolecular characterization. Materialscharacterization to the level of macromoleculararchitecture is needed. The fabrication ofdesigner materials is currently limited bychallenges involving cross-linking, networking,branching, composition of copolymers, andterpolymers, etc.

• Characterization of minute amounts ofbiopolymers and biomolecules. Thesemeasurements provide high selectivity analysisof micro- and nanoliter volumes, providinginformation on tertiary structures of biopolymersand assays of optical activity and/or bioactivity.

• Techniques to support combinatorial chemistryin cellular systems. These will aid discoveryefforts in pharmaceuticals and agro-chemicals.

For instance, research in drug discovery andpharmaceutical efficacy can be facilitated bystereospecific analysis for monitoring enantiomer-specific catalysis.

• Improved separations techniques. These include— stereospecific methods of analysis andseparations, including process-scale chiraltechniques,— techniques for isolating specific groups ofcompounds from complex mixtures of organicconstituents removed from the bulk matrix, and— chromatographic stationary phases that providefunction-selective separations of organiccompounds with similar chemical properties.• Advanced methods for matrix-independent

chemical analysis. These will providetechniques for completely extracting analytes,with minimal optimization of conditions, from awide range of matrices (e.g., supercritical fluidextraction, microwave-assisted solventextraction, and accelerated solvent extraction)using on-line flow injection.

• Accurate and comprehensive databases andmodels for chromatographic retention andspectroscopic data. These will aid identificationof compounds and minimize the need forreference compounds.

Robust measurement techniques for real-time,highly reliable analyses in practicalenvironmentsThe techniques required include the following:

• On-line and real-time analysis will aid processcontrol and environmental monitoring.

• Separation-free analyses that have reducedcycle time and low error rates must beincorporated.

• Multielement, temperature-programmable, solid-state sensor arrays that are low cost, self-correcting or calibrating, and nonfouling areimportant.

• Temperature-programmable sensor arrays thatprovide sufficient selectivity and sensitivityshould be integrated into applications inmultiphase, multicomponent process streams.

• On-line combination of extraction, groupisolation, chemical separation, and detectionsystems will provide rapid and accuratemeasurements of individual compounds.

• Integration of modeling tools and informationsuch as artificial intelligence (AI), neuralnetworks, on-line data reduction, and high-orderanalysis into instrumentation is essential tomanaging the profuse data required tocharacterize systems of high complexity.

• Sensitive, selective, distributed, multiplexed,and integrated instruments are needed for on-line process and environmental analysis. Theneeds include multifunction chemical sensors,fiber-optic probes, miniaturized massspectrometers, optical spectrometers, andchromatographs.

• Automated analytical laboratorysystems— remote device control and datainterchange protocols and standards— areneeded to make chemical analysis systemsmore reliable, accurate, and cost-effective.Given the large number of instrumentationmanufacturers, industry-wide interfacingstandards will have to be developed for efficientand accurate analyses of complex analytes,especially those involving extractive methods.Interfacing of automatic analytical systems withcontrol systems will be critical to fullimplementation of process analytical methodsfor process control.

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Theoretical models for guiding and optimizingchemical analysis in laboratory andplant–process environmentsThis will include addressing two issues: First isintegration of information theory, AI, neuralnetworks, and model-based chemical analysis withchemical measurements. This may include the useof computers for designing analytical strategies thatminimize the number of measurements required fordefinitive laboratory measurements and processcontrol.

Second is the need for new theories for defining therelationship of measurements at the single-particlelevel with those for ensembles representative ofbulk properties. We must apply statistics to validateanalytical methods for limited data and smallnumbers of particles, and develop new predictivecapabilities for spectroscopy, kinetics, andthermodynamics based on quantum mechanics.

Development of the collaboratory concept sothat scientists and engineers at one location cando experiments on the best equipment even if itis located at a physically remote siteThis technology will also enable staff at centralresearch organizations to do experiments andacquire data promptly at remote manufacturingfacilities.

TECHNOLOGY VISION 2020New CapabilitiesNonspecialists in the scientific community will beable to use research-grade analytical measurementinstruments.

Improvements and EnhancementsThe capability, speed, and accuracy ofmeasurement techniques will improve.

• All critical-process chemistry will be measuredaccurately on-line in a manufacturingenvironment.

• Measurement will be matrix independent in amajority of measurements taken.

• Interfaces, particulates, and aerosols will beaccurately and precisely characterized.

• identified and measured, including theirconformation with changing physical andchemical states.

• Large, combinatorial chemicals will be routinelymeasured and characterized.

• The most sophisticated measurementtechniques of the mid-1990s, once used only inthe laboratory, will become automated analyticalprocedures that will be commonly usedthroughout the industry.

• Sample preparation will no longer be needed forroutine analytical measurements.

• Analysis cycle time will be reduced by a factorof 10 over what it was in the 1990s.

• On-line measurements will become an integralpart of the process control scheme.

• Crystallography and resonance spectroscopieswill be used routinely to determinemacromolecular structures.

HOW TO GET THEREUse by nonspecialists of research-grade analyticalmeasurement instruments will require a newparadigm of collaboration between scientificinnovators, computer and chemical informationspecialists, instrument manufacturers, and chemicaltechnologists.

Centers of excellence can be promoted to advanceresearch programs focused on chemicalmeasurements and process analytical chemistry.Cooperative research efforts between industry,instrumentation companies, universities, and federallaboratories can be developed to advance the state-of-the-art of measurement science.

Instrumentation interfacing standards can beestablished to enable the use of distributedanalytical networks and more efficient dataacquisition and control systems.

The development of high-performancespectrometers can be supported using technologyadvances in superconducting magnets, high-performance lasers, and faster and higher capacitycomputers.

An industry–academe–government task force toprioritize the chemical process industry’s simulationneeds can be formed, followed by a general state-of-the-art assessment of available codes andcurrent technology.

COMPUTATIONAL TECHNOLOGIES

Current StateComputational technologies have a broad range ofapplications, from molecular modeling to processsimulation and control. Today, these technologies

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are embodied in virtually every aspect of chemicalresearch, development, design, and manufacture.Those most critical to the chemical industry includecomputational molecular science, computationalfluid dynamics (CFD), process modeling, simulation,operations optimization, and control.Within the past five years, computer hardwarecapable of handling more computationally intensiveapplications has become available to support thedevelopment and use of software tools. The toolstoday are far better than those available just a fewyears ago and much easier to use. However,computer architectures are changing rapidly, andsoftware for the newest, highest performance(lowest cost/processing unit) applications does notkeep up with these architectures.

Recent advances in computational molecularscience have made it possible to accurately andreliably study systems of a few tens of atoms,although less accurate methods can be applied to afew hundred atoms. The cost of the most rigorous ofthese methods grows extremely rapidly (n7) as moreatoms are considered. Computational methods cannow calculate selected physical, chemical, andkinetic properties needed to simulate and designproducts and processes. For most of theseproperties, empirical knowledge of similar systemsis necessary to approach experimental accuracy of±1 kcal/mol.

Current single-phase fluid dynamic modeling tools,initially developed for other industries, are beingadapted and extended to permit the modeling ofmore complex, multiphase, fluid dynamic systems.However, the modeling of reactive flows is still in itsinfancy.

Steady-state process simulation is nowindispensable in designing chemical plants.Dynamic process modeling is applied widely inresearch and process development, but less often inplant operations. The use of more fundamentalmechanistic models for nonlinear process control isemerging.

Operations simulation and optimization may bedefined broadly as the use of modeling andoptimization technologies, tools, and methods toimprove operations. Aspects of operations modelingand optimization are used in a variety of businessfunctions, including manufacturing, technical,finance, logistics, production scheduling, capacityplanning, distribution network planning, and othersupply chain activities.

Commercial software exists for implementing expertsystems, neural networks, and fuzzy logic forprocess monitoring, control, decision support, andheuristic inference in general. Other technologies,such as generic algorithms and database mining, aswell as hybrids of AI, are developing rapidly.

Needs and ChallengesThe principal challenges in developingcomputational technologies are to ensure that thesetools and methods are tailored to meet the needs ofthe chemical industry. Doing so will require effectivecollaboration among those with technology (industry,national laboratories, and others), those withresources (industry and the federal government),and those who can provide the essential supportinfrastructure (commercial software vendors).Access to cost-effective, high-performancecomputing systems, software, and databasearchitectures that do not require custom interfacesbetween complementary applications will be usefulin fulfilling the promised benefits of parallel anddistributed computing.

Renewed effort in experimental validation isrequired. The development and application ofcomputational methods are now largely separatedfrom experimental testing of results; discrepanciesand limitations are still sometimes discovered byaccident rather than by design.

In the area of computational molecular science(CMS), several improvements are necessary tomake the tools more useful in modeling.Major improvements are needed in user interfacesfor molecular modeling and design, includingguidance in problem specification, method selection,computing platform selection, results visualization,and performance of ancillary computations to relatethese results to observable physical and chemicalproperties.

Integration of CMS with statistical thermodynamicand continuum methods is required for full treatmentof many problems.

Development of kinetic and thermodynamicmodeling will allow prediction of long-term stabilityand performance of materials.

For scientists and engineers to better modelmore complex fluid dynamic systems (couplingchemical reactions with multi-phase,multidimensional, simultaneous fluid, heat, and

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mass transfer dynamics), CFD programs can bedeveloped to incorporate emerging advances inphysical models and property databases and toprovide a readily adaptable architecture.In addition, advancement in CFD will depend on thedevelopment of tools for more complex systemssuch as high-temperature gas-phase systems,multiphase mixing, polymer processing, non-Newtonian rheology, dense multiphase turbulentflow (with or without chemical reaction), andcrystallization with particle nucleation and growth.

Scientists and engineers need support to gobeyond current constraints of a narrow range ofoperating conditions, enabling them to modelcomplex, multisite, multiproduct, internationalenvironments.Software tools are needed that bring together acomplete modeling environment, includingsimulation, parameter estimation from experimentaldata, optimization, graphical representation ofresults, and statistical measures of uncertainty. Seethe Information Systems chapter for additionaldiscussion.

Some of the specific challenges that can be met inthis area include the development of

• simulation tools that integrate combinatorialoptimization and ways to deal with uncertainty insimulation and optimization, such as sensitivityanalysis and deterministic modeling;

• whole-site business production models, thatmove beyond individual plant modeling; and

• more robust fundamental models that arebroadly applicable and reduce empiricism.

Large-scale integration of smart systems needto be incorporated into the guidance ofoperations with more significant advances in AIfor scientists and engineers to move beyond thesmall scale or limited scope of current advisorysystems.Accomplishing this will require

• an information infrastructure that permits data tobe shared regardless of geographical locationwith sufficient safeguards to protect proprietaryinformation,

• a knowledge representation that is independentof the software system or inference engine thatuses that knowledge, and

• cost-effective combinations of heuristicinference, discrete-event simulation, real-timeoptimization, dynamic simulation, andcomputational modeling in single, real-time, on-line advisory systems.

See also the Information Systems chapter.

TECHNOLOGY VISION 2020In general, the application of computationaltechnologies will lead to

• shortened product–process development cycles,• optimization of existing processes to improve

energy efficiency, and• efficient design of new products and processes.

New CapabilitiesThrough the ability to model atomistic systems withhigh reliability, computational molecular science willallow chemical companies to rapidly design newmaterials and chemical processes that protecthuman health, safety, and the environment.

CFD tools will guide experimental optimization andscale-up.

Process modeling and optimization will be anintegral part of the development and implementationcycle, from the early stages of research throughprocess operations.

Advisory systems employing AI technologies willplay a significant role in the integration andmanagement of the entire chemical enterprise,including business systems, process flow sheets andunit operations, and computational simulations.

Coupling process science and engineering with thebasic sciences will ensure the rapid development,design, scale-up, control, and optimization ofexisting and new processes for safely manufacturingchemicals and the products made from them, aswell as their disassembly, recycle, and reuse.

Improvements and EnhancementsWhile experimental methods will become moreefficient and reliable through the integration ofcomputation, they will not be made obsolete.

Modeling and simulation will be used at every stepof the value-adding chain— including scientific,engineering, and business processes— from

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discovery through commercialization. Measurementscience will provide understanding and control ofessentially all key process variables, compositions,and product properties in real time.

Intelligent systems will be applied to operations asthe chemical industry advances.

Computational technologies will play an increasingrole in the design, construction, and operation ofplants.

Successful accomplishments of these advances willbe marked by widely available, user-friendlymodeling environments that are comprehensive,cohesive, well supported, and affordable. Suchenvironments will provide tools that couple

• chemistry with fluid dynamics,• modeling with experimentation,• process models with business models, and• structures with material properties.

Measures of accuracy and usability will show thatthe energy of a molecule or reaction transition stateof 20 to 30 nonhydrogen atoms can be calculatedcost effectively to an accuracy of 1 kJ/mol,comparable to the best achievable experimentalaccuracy.

Relative energies of weak intermolecularinteractions (e.g., hydrogen bonds, van der Waalscomplexes, and nonidealities in liquids and gases)can also be calculated to accuracies comparable tothe best experimental methods.

A host of other molecular properties are morereadily computed than measured. Well-designed,effective user interfaces will make the mostsophisticated and demanding methods accessibleand effective for nonspecialists.

Well-maintained national databases and high-speednetworks will make it easy to share results and avoidduplication.

Success will be marked by widely available, cost-effective, user friendly commercial software forimplementing advisory systems that can provideoperational support for an entire enterprise,including plant operations, supply and distributionchains, and business decisions.

HOW TO GET THERENoted above (in the discussion of issues related tochemical measurement, "How to Get There," pg. 34)is the recommendation that a task force be formedto give priority to the chemical industry’s simulationneeds in general. A high-priority activity of this taskforce would be to focus on those simulation needsspecific to CFD. Such an investigation can befollowed by a general state-of-the-art assessment ofavailable codes and current knowledge, theory, andmethods relative to these needs. At the same time,flexible software paradigms can be explored andnew, modular base codes developed. The results ofthese tasks can permit a clearly defineddevelopment path to be defined for new CFD tools.

Support and further development is essential forthree types of computing platforms:

• high-performance desktop workstations, whichgive the individual scientist direct, personalmeans of solving a useful range of small andmidsize problems and visualizing the results oflarger problems;

• large, fast vector-processor machines, becausemany of the more rigorous methods have notyet been efficiently programmed for parallelcomputing, and commercial packages havefavored this type of architecture;

• highly parallel processors, which require majoradvances in support tools for system operationand programming; parallel numerical algorithmsand template applications; and fully developed,optimized, and supported end-user applications.

Further development of the national network isrequired to improve communication speed, todevelop tools for on-line collaboration, and to meeta variety of needs in sharing, archiving, andretrieving results.

Increased support is required for experimentalvalidation of (or challenges to) computationalresults. The technology would benefit greatly from alarge coordinated program combining work ontheoretical and computational methods withexperimental programs designed from the beginningto challenge those methods.

Public–private partnerships can be developed to useexpertise from the chemical industry, nationallaboratories, and AI software companies forillustrative implementation of single-system AI.

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Chapter 5

SUPPLY CHAINMANAGEMENT

While the chemical industry has concentrated onscience and production and has accordedsubstantial attention to manufacturing as well, anarea that has received less attention than it merits isthat of the supply chain, defined as the criticallinkages between the supplier and the producer, andthe producer and the customer. Supply chainmanagement focuses broadly on three areas:

• planning and processing orders;• handling, transporting, and storing all materials

purchased, processed, or distributed; and• managing inventory.

As the chemical industry becomes increasinglyglobal, issues related to the supply chain areincreasingly critical to industrial competitiveness.

Current StateToday, many estimate that the costs associated withsupply chain issues represent about 10 percent ofthe sales value of delivered products domesticallyand as much as 40 percent internationally. Clearly,this represents an area of opportunity for increasingcompetitiveness.

Circumstances are emerging that demand greaterresponsiveness to rapidly changing customerrequirements across a global network.

Customers for chemical materials are aggressivelyexpanding and unifying their operations globally,particularly as free trade expands. With thisexpansion, tariffs on chemicals generally are beingreduced or eliminated. Because of increased carrier

safety and efficiency, permitted materials will findeasier entry at border crossings. Related to thiseasing of trade restrictions, and creating a synergywith the free-trade agreements, is the realization onthe part of citizens of various countries that importsof higher quality may be available at lower cost inthe international marketplace.

Managing the supply chain effectively involves notonly the manufacturers, but also their tradingpartners: customers, suppliers, warehousers,terminal operators, railways, barge operators, motorcarriers, airlines, customs house brokers, freightforwarders, port operators, and many otherbusinesses central to the U.S. economy.Coordinating these efforts globally to ensurecontinuous order and product integrity, as well asprotection of the environment, is a major taskrequiring specialized expertise.

Managing the supply chain today also requires anunderstanding of and conformance with regulations,laws, and other requirements that govern thestorage, handling, shipping, packaging, labeling, anddocumentation of products and shipments. Today,such requirements vary within and among the local,state, national, and international levels of trade.

The state of packaging varies from wellstandardized to completely idiosyncratic. On the onehand, international containers for bulk materials arewell standardized through the International Maritimeof Dangerous Goods (IMDG) requirements and arewell accepted by importing countries. On the otherhand, packaging containers are specified throughUnited Nations performance-oriented packagingstandards that do not specify packaging materials.As a result, a wide variety of packaging materialsand designs are used, with the burden on theshipper to satisfy performance standards. Becauseof this complexity, some countries (e.g., France andGermany) require that packaging materials bereturned to the country where the shipmentoriginated.

In the United States, there are inconsistencies inlabeling requirements among the OccupationalSafety and Health Administration, theEnvironmental Protection Agency, the Departmentof Transportation, the Federal Insecticide,Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act, and state laws andlocal ordinances. One example is the confusingarray of definitions and labels for flammable,combustible, corrosive, and toxic materials, to namea few. Such confusion is greatly compounded when

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viewed along with other countries’ symbols,definitions, and interpretations. Thus,misunderstandings about labeling can easilybecome a significant barrier to trade. Furthermore,the methods used to certify materials vary fromcountry to country (e.g., flashpoint certification usingPensky–Martins, closed cup, open cup, or othermethods).

The sizes of packaging containers also varyglobally. For instance, a standard “gallon” drum inthe United States is 55 gallons and 41 gallons inJapan. The content, format, and even symbols usedon labels vary globally. Furthermore, no singlelanguage is required for labeling in internationaltrade.

Complicating the operating environment is the needto share massive amounts of information amongparticipants in the global supply chain, usingsystems and data that most often are technicallyincompatible and inefficient. To an ever increasingdegree, the efficiency of supply chain functions aremore and more dependent on proliferatinginformation technology— hardware, software, andcommunications products. There is also a strongtrend toward compatibility in information technology,allowing connectivity among various manufacturers’hardware, software, and communications products.Taking advantage of these trends, trading partnersin the chemical industry are investing significantly toupgrade their information-processing capabilities.The result is a massive growth ofinterconnected global networks and culturalacceptance of the global information superhighway.

The supply chain needs to protect the environmentand the people involved in handling, storing, andtransporting chemicals. The Responsible Care®

Distribution Code of Management Practicesprovides guidance for safe industry practices. Theindustry’s drive to extend environmental stewardshipto all operations is creating a model for safety andenvironmental protection among participants in theglobal supply chain.

To understand what will be involved in reducingtime and costs associated with supply chainactivities in the global marketplace, we will look atsix drivers of supply chain efficiency as they relateto increasing competitiveness:

• market globalization;• growth of free trade;• regulatory restrictions;

• transportation;• environmental, health, and safety concerns; and• information processing.

Needs and ChallengesMarket globalizationAs customers of the chemical industry aggressivelyexpand and unify their operations globally, chemicalproducers are increasingly able to supply materialswith common specifications, regardless of where thematerials are made or used.

Challenges that represent significant barriers toglobalizing supply chains include the need to

• balance the demographics of chemicalproduction locations relative to their feedstocksources and customers,

• rationalize undepreciated assets in facilities thatcannot compete on a global basis,

• obtain the capital needed to globalizeoperations,

• overcome the disadvantage of low-costfeedstocks from offshore sources, and

• ensure compatibility of supply chain inventorysystems among trading partners.

Growth of free tradeWhile the expansion of free trade is generallypositive insofar as it is accompanied by reduction orelimination of barriers to trade, each country’ssituation is still different in terms of tariffs, specificborder restrictions, and registration requirements.Exacerbating this is the fact that this information isdispersed, as well as difficult to access andunderstand. For a production site to be based onfree-market forces— such as economics or customerneed— tariffs, border restrictions, and registrationrequirements should be reduced or eliminatedwhere appropriate.

Regulatory restrictionsAs noted above, inconsistencies abound inpackaging materials, design, labeling, andmeasurement. Test methods for certifying materialsalso vary from nation to nation.

TransportationChallenges in this area focus on safety, efficiency,and cost-effectiveness. Often there is a lack ofeconomic incentives to place vessels and ports intoservice to handle large volumes of bulk chemicalproducts. Specific challenges lie in the areas of fuelconsumption, lading capacity, and equipmentutilization.

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Environmental, health, and safety concernsThe ability to successfully meet environmental,health, and safety challenges depends largely uponour success in clearly identifying the problem.Without some degree of consistency, problemidentification becomes extremely difficult. A lack ofharmonization in international transportationregulation schemes, tariffs, border instructions, anddocumentation and information technologyimplementation introduces variables that exacerbatethe problem and lead to the inconsistencies thatlimit the effectiveness of environmental, health, andsafety strategies.

Information processingManaging the vast amounts of information neededto operate the supply chain among global tradingpartners poses a great challenge to the chemicalindustry. Improvements can be made incommunications to allow quick and accurateconnectivity among parties interconnected to theglobal supply chain.

TECHNOLOGY VISION 2020New CapabilitiesThe supply chain functions will operate in anenvironment of seamless coordination of orders,production, and distribution across countries andcontinents.

Definitions of chemical classifications will beharmonized.

HOW TO GET THEREThe chemical industry can structure its marketing,manufacturing, and distribution operations from aglobal perspective, harmonizing manufacturing anddistribution operations as its customers globalizeand harmonize their requirements.

Chemical producers can form global partnershipswith their customers, feedstock suppliers,coproducers, and third-party service providers, bothdomestically and abroad, to remain competitive.

The U.S. government can support, whereverpossible, efforts to harmonize multinational anddomestic tariffs, border restrictions, registrationrequirements, regulations, and standards. Theseefforts can be made in conjunction with tradeassociations and international business units thatdeal in chemicals and chemical materials.

Discrepancies within regulations regarding chemicalproduct shipments can be addressed.

Risk–benefit analysis can be incorporated whendefining standards and revising regulations.

Improvements and EnhancementsThe safe and efficient distribution of chemicalproducts will continuously improve, therebygenerating major benefits to the U.S. chemicalindustry and economy, as well as the environment.

Chemical companies’ responsiveness to thechanging requirements of their customersthroughout the world will increase dramatically. Overall response time will be reduced. They willthus be able to support their customers’ productneeds several times faster than in the 1990s.

Supply chain operations will be more cost-effectiveand require less investment. Inventories could bereduced by as much as 50 percent and storage andhandling costs reduced by as much as 20 percent ofwhat they were in the 1990s.

Consequently, profits in chemical companies mayincrease, adding to the potential revenues of theU.S. government and permitting chemicalmanufacturers to make the investments needed toreconfigure their global manufacturing anddistribution facilities, develop the requiredinformation systems, and train their workers to meetthe demands of an evolving global industry.

The global environment will benefit from worldwideimplementation of the Responsible Care® initiatives.

HOW TO GET THEREThe chemical industry can initiate a benchmarkstudy to identify the best practices in supply chainmanagement. Such a study should

• review current surveys of best practices acrossmultiple industries;

• develop detailed measurements of contributionsof the total logistics and supply chain toestablish benchmarks for assessing industryimprovements;

• compare the chemical industry with others interms of these measurements;

• define targets for the industry;• promulgate the comparisons, benchmarks, and

objectives throughout the industry; and• provide assistance to companies seeking to

improve their performance.

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To improve its international competitiveness, thechemical industry can develop the logistics functionto better manage its supply chains and achieve suchefficiencies as sharing of facilities, operations, andservices. Toward that end the industry should

• formally recognize the value of logistics inmanaging supply chains;

• structure marketing and distribution operationsfrom a global perspective;

• develop global partnerships with customers,carriers, feedstock suppliers, coproducers, andthird-party service providers to share facilities,operations, and services;

• streamline and standardize business practices;• develop better methods and equipment for

shipping faster and managing “waiting to ship”times more successfully.

The federal government can partner with thechemical industry to harmonize global packaging,labeling, documentation, handling, storage, andshipping requirements that protect the environmentand are cost- effective. Some necessary measuresare to

• encourage global harmonization of packaging,labeling, documentation, handling, storage, andshipping requirements;

• work with industry to ensure use of bestavailable practices and risk–benefit concepts inestablishing standards;

• promote communications networks that providedirect access to different countries’ regulatoryrequirements in standardized format; and

• support the reduction of barriers to trade.

The chemical industry can sponsor an effort to driveinformation systems toward harmonizedcommunications, data transmission, and informationprocessing in support of global supply chainactivities. Steps toward that end include

• surveying the chemical industry to determinethe most important functional and technicalrequirements for global systems;

• working with the software industry to determinethe best software and hardware packagesavailable to support the chemical industry’srequirements;

• working with the information technologycommunity to meet the global needs of theindustry for harmonized formats;

• through consortia and other cooperative efforts,participating in the development of large,integrated, computer networks for the chemicalindustry; and

• working within the educational community toestablish training programs and curricula thatmeet the industry’s need for skilled workers.

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Chapter 6

INFORMATIONSYSTEMS

Information Systems in theChemical Industry fromThree Perspectives

Throughout the chemical industry, the ways inwhich data are turned into information and used,managed, transmitted, and stored will hold the keyto increasing competitiveness. Improved andenhanced information systems are at the very heartof our future technology vision, which sees thechemical industry as operating in ways that arehighly efficient and economical.

To this end, we consider information systems fromthree perspectives:

(1) infrastructure issues and the development ofopen systems;

(2) the use of information systems inbusiness/enterprise management; and

(3) the use of sophisticated information systems inproduct and process design and development.

From each of these three perspectives, we reviewthe current status of information systems, identifythe needs and challenges, and look to the future,articulating our Technology Vision 2020 andoutlining the recommendations that will move theindustry ahead.

Information systems are also key to advances inmanufacturing, engineering design, and plantconstruction, and we discuss these systems in thefollowing section.

INFRASTRUCTURE AND OPENSYSTEMSSignificant technological advances will requiresignificant growth in the infrastructure of currentsystems. Therefore, progress from closed to opensystems is essential.

Current StateThe current state of information systems stems fromthe proprietary nature of the computer industry andthe highly competitive way in which the industry hasmatured.

Data compression techniques are not adequate fortransferring and storing large quantities of data.Computer systems remain that do not communicatewith other systems. Electronic communications arelimited by the data-transfer infrastructure.

Many software applications operate from proprietarydatabases that are not widely available and oftennot transferable to other uses.

A company using an internal database system,without adequate transfer methods, will not be ableto use many commercial software products. Somecompanies that developed early versions ofcommon databases were forced to develop manysoftware systems in-house to meet their databaserequirements.

Companies using different database systems oftenhave difficulty exchanging information. Withouteffective data transfer, they must often reenter datainto systems manually. Reentering data increasescosts and serious risk of error.

Document management today involves manyformats, from electronic to microfilm to paper. Ingeneral, document management plans have yet tobe developed for the complete business cycle. Theability to support work-flow through these systems isimportant. Operating procedures are beingconverted from paper documents to electronicformats that can be viewed on-line. Information-transfer techniques can be improved to ensure moreefficient integration of material safety data sheets(MSDSs), vendor documentation, and computer-aided drafting and design (CADD) information.

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Needs and ChallengesAdvances in several areas must take place in orderfor the chemical industry to fully enjoy the benefitsof information systems technologies.

Changes in policyThere can be an industry-wide commitment tochanges in and improvement of data management.

• Computer systems and networks must beavailable when needed.

• The use of paper in the workplace can besignificantly reduced.

• Process control systems can be used toautomatically input data into the systems.Customer and supplier data can be transferredbetween computer networks in both directions.Consequently, data will never have to beentered more than once into any computer.

• Data exchange must be transparent to the user,and software enhancements to make thispossible must be developed.

• The protection of proprietary information mustbe enhanced through the continuousimprovement of computer security systems.

Improvements in software and hardwareAppropriate software and hardware can bedeveloped to support more sophisticated functions,including development of the following:

• Interfaces and gateways can be developed tosupport database connectivity.

• Data compression technologies or largebandwidths will permit transfer of large packetsof information with improved system reliability.

• Automated devices, such as on-line orautomated data collection devices orscanner–bar code readers, can help enter dataaccurately into the system.

• Computing hardware and software can bedeveloped to the point that the most complexcalculations are accessible via intuitive userinterfaces. These interfaces should cost thesame or less than today’s systems.

Improvements in networking, communications,and data exchangeAdvances in networking and communications will berequired.

• Low-cost, reliable, and secure worldwidetelecommunications are needed.

• Enabling technologies, such as desktop video-conferencing and wireless communications, can

be widely used. For instance, such technologieswould enhance communication from the plantfloor to the sales and marketing departments.

• Communication, including data transfer betweensuppliers and customers, can be timely.

• Fast, reliable, cost-effective data networks mustbe available.

• Electronic data interchange (EDI) wouldenhance “just-in-time” material managementsystems, helping to integrate inventory systemsthroughout the entire manufacturing process.This could reduce inventory costs and improveoverall manufacturing performance.

TECHNOLOGY VISION 2020In the future, our investments in informationmanagement will reflect their importance ascorporate assets.

New CapabilitiesIndividuals with the need to know will have reliable,instantaneous access to information and decision-support tools via intelligent, intuitive interfaces thathelp them do their jobs regardless of theirlocation— virtual offices without borders.

Data will be managed as a corporate asset with theowners assuring accuracy, timeliness, and validity.Data will be entered only once into the system andwill be accessible to all programs or individuals on aneed-to-know basis. This will greatly improve theefficiency of the staff who today spend significanttime gathering, verifying, and moving data aroundfor various applications. Data centralization andreplication techniques could be used to developcost-effective data exchange methods.

Critical information will be managed throughdocument management plans, with importantinformation in electronic format.

HOW TO GET THEREAll manually accessible documents can be scannedby optical character recognition (OCR) devices toconvert it to electronically readable, searchable, andcompatible formats. The cost of scanning andcorrecting can be reduced to the point of cost-effectiveness.

To protect data, security techniques are needed thatensure the authenticity and traceability ofdocuments. Also needed are techniques forautomatically capturing and retaining operatingknowledge.

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Data compression, transfer, and storagetechnologies can advance so that large packets ofinformation may be rapidly transferred.

Eventually, there could be no practical limitations totransfer and storage capabilities. Cost-effective datacompression and transfer technologies can bedeveloped to achieve these technology goals.

Technology that bridges the gap between islands ofautomation can be developed, ultimately creatingopen systems from which data can be deliveredvertically and horizontally.

Techniques for improving reliability of software andhardware can be developed. Standards forexchanging information via document managementsystems in an open environment using commondatabase structures and formats can be developed.

Consistent, international protocols for process, plant,and business database formats can be developed.

Improvements and EnhancementsAll applicable literature, regulatory information, andscientific data will be available on-line.Individuals will be able to do literature surveysthrough personal computers.

HOW TO GET THEREThe capability of worldwide networkcommunications can be improved so that it operatesmore consistently.

BUSINESS AND ENTERPRISEMANAGEMENT

Information and timeliness of access to informationare critical to competitiveness in business.Opportunities for growth in the area of businessinformation systems will focus on acceleratingaccess and personalizing system use and training.Information systems can be widely implementedthroughout all levels of the organization to aiddecision making. Instantaneous access to datameans faster, more accurate decisions.

Current StateWhile information systems have dramaticallyincreased productivity, a lack of integrationcontinues to limit their contribution to organizationaleffectiveness. For instance, top management haslimited on-line access to sales, distribution, and

plant operation information needed for businessdecisions. Data reside in multiple, disconnecteddatabases. The ability to perform “What if?”evaluations is limited. On-line executive informationsystems are only now becoming available.

For management to be able to make soundanalyses of business performance, timely access toinformation on performance of individual productlines, business units, and plants is required.

Many software packages are not designed tofacilitate communication across platforms,departments, sites, or with other systems.

Older, or legacy, software is usually proprietary.Because vendors do not always offer complete-enterprise systems, system integrators— external orin-house— develop special software, hardware, or acombination of both to bridge the gaps amongsystems. Often, the result is a one-of-a-kind systemrequiring heavy maintenance. Upgrades are difficultand expensive. Inadequate end-user involvementand needs assessment during development oftenleads to difficult-to-use applications that requireadditional resources for modifications and patchesbefore the software can be used.

Many process control systems are isolated fromproduction planning and business decisions, and thesame is true of financial, sales, and distributioninformation. Inadequate networking of computersresults in repetitious data entry. Limited electronicdata transfer makes businesses less responsive tothe needs of customers.

Needs and ChallengesImprovements in hardware and softwareSystems that provide information on productioncosts, inventories, profit-and-loss statements, costsof sales, and volume of business need to bedeveloped.

For decision support systems to become optimallyuseful to management, they require accurate,current exchange of information between theoperating plant, the laboratories (for qualityassurance), and the maintenance system. Supportsystems that analyze productivity, reduce cycletime, and aid in trouble-shooting and improvingsafety will need to be developed in addition todecision-support tools that assist in analyzing dataand creating and verifying business models. Toolssuch as neural networks, artificial intelligence (AI),and expert systems can be used in all functions of

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the enterprise from process analysis to businessanalysis.

To optimize business utility, separate functionalmodes— such as those for manufacturing,purchasing, and maintenance— can be combined.Computer-integrated enterprise models withtraditional functions are often of limited utilitybecause they have been over-taken by newrequirements and approaches to data organizationand management.

Consistent labeling and tracking systems will needto be developed to support the use of computerizedlogistics systems that minimize cost and deliverytime for products.

An automated auditing system can be developedthat reduces the time and effort spent on ensuringcompliance with external and internal standards andrequirements.

Users need to be able to select from a number ofpossible visual formats, such as raw data, charts,and graphs, and to view data according to anyselection criterion they wish, such as by country, bycustomer, by region, or by product. Toaccommodate these needs, information systemsmust advance to the point where they arecharacterized by sequential viewing capacity.

Changes in networking, communication, anddata exchangePlant floor and production planning systems shouldshare information with order entry systems to bettermeet customer requests.

Quality assurance information can be shared withbusiness centers to achieve efficient control.

Safety information can be immediately accessible tooperations people.

Changes involving information usersSince each information system user has differentskills levels, learning systems based on artificialintelligence and neural networks will identify theskills of the user and adapt the interface to theuser’s specific level.

Management can have access to personnel trainingas well as health and safety information.

On-line interactive training for use of informationsystems needs to become available.

TECHNOLOGY VISION 2020New CapabilitiesIn the future, automated systems will supportbusiness and enterprise management’s decision-making processes, and both customers andsuppliers— internal and external— will have timelyaccess to the information they need. This meansthat individuals will gain access to the informationand tools they need to help them do their jobs. Forinstance, information for all parts of the supply chainwill be available, along with the capability to trackmaterials and products at every stage.

Improved forecasting tools will be available tosupport business decisions.

Information management will be based on electronicstorage rather than on paper, and the paperlessfactory will become a reality.

HOW TO GET THEREInformation systems that provide data on demandand in real time for planning and schedulingfunctions can be developed.

Information systems can be developed toaccommodate management of a business portfoliowith an expanding set of products.

Standards for infrastructure and data exchange canbe developed.

To develop better business strategies, industry canfund the development of intelligentinformation–agent tools that collect information.

Search tools can be developed to efficiently scan allsources, external and internal, for informationpertinent to the business or enterprise, and makethat information readily accessible.

Information integration can be the first goal for aplantwide information system.

Information can be presented in a variety of formatsthat accommodate users of differing skills. Softwarecan be developed to facilitate user-specificinterfaces for information.

Improvements and EnhancementsInformation will flow freely throughout the enterpriseand supply chain, both vertically and horizontally.

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Knowledge-based systems will be developed to thepoint where they have decision-making capability.

Real-time data on operating costs and use ofresources will improve accuracy of financialanalyses.

Speed of communication within an organization willimprove.

Little or no inventory will be required due to “just-in-time” deliveries and real-time product tracking.

HOW TO GET THEREVendors can be encouraged to provide informationin a form that permits it to be integrated into a largersystem.

Government and industry can fund the developmentof technologies for business and enterprisemanagement, including expert systems andintelligent decision support tools.

Business models can be flexible enough toincorporate multinational business practices andcultural diversity.

PRODUCT AND PROCESS DESIGNAND DEVELOPMENT

Current StateAlthough computer-aided simulation and modelingof products and processes have been usedextensively in the aerospace, automotive,electronic, and pharmaceutical industries, the use ofsuch techniques in the chemical process industry isstill emerging.

The development of new industry practices, the useof techniques adopted to other industries, and theemergence of new modeling and simulationtechnologies specific to the chemical industry willallow companies to shorten product and processdevelopment time. These advancements areintegral to maintaining global competitiveness.

The chemical industry increasingly uses new, moreproductive computational approaches to productdesign and development. Advances in simulation,modeling, hardware, and software are enabling thischange and will accelerate the pace at whichtechnological change will take place.

In product development, product designs are scaledup from bench-level quantities to production-levelprocesses. As detailed process design proceeds,steady-state and dynamic simulation are used tomodel pressures, temperatures, and flow rates.Safety and regulatory concerns are factored in, andelaborate “What if?” scenarios are investigated bymodeling before the first factory valve is turned. Over the past two decades, steady-state andindividual process-unit modeling have evolved.

Simulation of chemical reactors and both batch andcontinuous processes has been improving rapidly,although more research and development is neededin these areas. Such simulation and modelingtechniques are rapidly becoming the chemicalprocess engineer’s most powerful tools.

In product design, molecular modeling andcomputational chemistry are evolving to the pointwhere they can be applied to larger molecules, suchas polymers.

Modeling is compressing the time betweenhypothesis and experimental outcome. Newmaterials and their properties can be predicted andvisualized before the materials are synthesized.Similarly, complex molecular interactions andinformation on chemical reactions can be modeled.

Scientists also are beginning to prototypeinformation on chemical intermediates and reactionbyproducts. In addition to reducing design cycles,modeling eliminates material acquisition anddisposal costs and improves safety by reducingexposure to chemicals and intermediates in thelaboratory.

Needs and ChallengesChanges in policyThe culture of the chemical industry’s researchcommunity needs to shift away from empiricaldesign toward computational design.

Health and safety needs should be further exploredin both product and process design and thedevelopment process.

Improvements in modeling and application ofinformation technology to specific needs of thechemical industryEasy-to-use modeling tools can become available.

The information and assumptions used in modelingshould become accurate.

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Research is needed in specific areas of interest tothe chemical process industry (CPI):

• simulation and modeling techniques as theyapply to the CPI;

• prediction of the chemical properties of newmaterials based on those of existing materials;and

• reaction and separation dynamics.

Improvements in hardware and softwareSafety and regulatory information can be integratedwith design tools.

Property-prediction databases that contain a wideselection of compounds can become available.Databases need to be expanded and verifiedthrough comparison with experimental results. In thelonger term, techniques need to be developed forpredicting properties of future products from theproperties of similar products. Pattern recognitionand forecasting techniques, such as statisticalanalysis and neural network technology, are justbeginning to be used. However, the bulk of the near-term work lies in gathering information on theproperties of current materials and making it readilyaccessible.

Reasonably priced high-performance work-stationsand computer hardware are needed.

High-speed hardware can become available at areasonable cost.

Changes in communication, networking, anddata exchangeSeparate cells of information are of little value ifthey cannot be effectively transmitted throughout anorganization to those proceeding with the next stepin commercializing a product. Design, development,operations, and quality control groups lose valuewhen time is lost reentering information gatheredpreviously by another group. Information andmodels must become readily available and easilypassed from one group to the next.

Adequate computer network speed and bandwidthare required to support transfers of large quantitiesof data.

Reliability of data can be increased throughimprovement of data interfaces.

Communication can be improved between designand development groups and development andoperations groups.

Data transfer standards can be developed and usedindustry-wide.

Changes involving information usersKey to the implementation of more sophisticatedmodeling techniques will be the development ofeasier-to-use interfaces, such as tools based onvirtual reality.

TECHNOLOGY VISION 2020Improvements in information systems, particularlyin modeling and databases, will radically changethe way the chemical industry conducts R&D.

New Capabilities—Properties PredictionThe properties of new materials will be predicted bythe use of databases on the properties of existingmaterials.

HOW TO GET THEREThe expansion and development of databases forpredicting the properties and performance ofchemicals can be fostered.

New Capabilities—Product and Process ModelingModels will move easily between various softwarepackages and hardware platforms.

Technology for modeling and optimizing safety, fluiddynamics, multiphase flow, and viscoelastic flow inchemical processes will be used throughout the CPI.

Dynamic simulation tools will be used for productdevelopment.

The cost and time-to-market for new products will bereduced dramatically through improved modelingtechnology and more extensive use of newmodeling tools for computational chemistry.The need for pilot plants will be reduced through theuse of process modeling tools, and modeling willguide experimentation and scale-up.

Product stewardship will have been improvedthrough modeling of safety, recycling, and reusefactors for chemical intermediates.

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User interfaces to semi-empirical and quantummechanical molecular modeling tools will beimproved for use in product and process designthroughout the chemical industry.

HOW TO GET THEREThe chemical industry can be encouraged tocompare its modeling practices against those inother industries and adopt best practices.

Protocols can be developed for transferring modelsand model parameters within an organization.

Government and industry can undertake aconcerted effort to enlarge common knowledge ofmolecular modeling and simulation as applicable tothe chemical process industry. Specific efforts canbe devoted to process modeling, particularly withregard to dynamic simulation.

Models that can interact and exchange data, suchas the Project for Process Simulation DataExchange, can be developed.

Safety-related modeling of chemical processes canbe improved.

Government can enhance mechanisms andinteractions that enable the transfer of processsimulation and modeling techniques to the privatesector. Two primary sources of such techniqueswould be the U.S. Department of Defense and theU.S. Department of Energy.

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Computers in Manufacturing

MANUFACTURING ANDOPERATIONS

Current StateManufacturing and operations will require continualinfusion of the newest information and processcontrol technologies if the chemical industry is tomaintain the ability to reliably deliver products thatbest serve the customer and are delivered at thelowest cost available in a global market.

Knowledge of process operations and processinformation and control methods is found too oftenin separate, functional groups within a company.Dismantling these functional silos will be necessaryto enable U.S. industry to become globallycompetitive by 2020. Companies must invest notonly in process automation, enterprise-widenetworks, and standard manufacturing softwaresystems, but also in human resource systems (bothphysical and educational) that make possible thecapture and maintenance of the maximumeconomic return from each manufacturing facility.Process automation will require a highly skilledoperating and maintenance staff to take fulladvantage of dynamic business opportunities.Support from knowledge-based operations andmaintenance adviser systems will be available, butthe need for cause-and-effect analyses in unusualsituations will still require human intelligence forchemical plant operations.

Currently, the chemical process industry has anexisting base of computer systems that perform themanufacturing tasks of

• process control,• process information,• modeling,• statistical process control,• equipment monitoring and maintenance,• document management, and• laboratory systems.

Frequently, these systems were purchased fromnumerous suppliers or were developed internally. Ineither case, they were likely installed individuallyand not designed to communicate with each other.Movement is underway toward networking individualcomputer systems and integrating the variousapplications into plantwide or company-wide

information networks. Legacy systems that do notuse open systems concepts impede these efforts.However, the dependence on these systems and theinvestment in them are such that it is difficult tothrow away and design the ideal system.

Many companies have started on the path to facility-wide networks (typically connecting majorconcentrations of manufacturing staff with fiber-opticcables) and the transition to commercially availableplug-and-play software systems for manufacturingsupport. This drive results from several factors.Internal resources available to develop and maintainpoint-to-point device and component applicationinterfaces are often limited with the reconsolidationof corporate engineering and information systemsfunctions. At the same time, manufacturingmanagement is demanding more functionality fromprocess information and control systems to meetcustomer’s quality requirements and governmentregulations; and commercial management isdemanding that manufacturing and other businesssupport functions provide information that isintegrated enterprise-wide to support businessplanning.

Laboratory systems in the chemical process industryrange from stand-alone equipment using manuallyentered results to integrated analytical equipmentand information systems. The applications are asvaried as the numbers and types of materialsanalyzed— from raw material, to in-process, to finalproduct.

Efforts are underway to improve process dataavailability in electronic form among companypersonnel. More data are available, or soon will be,than staffs have time to analyze, and the need toconvert data into information and advice is broadlyrecognized. Data are being analyzed using toolssuch as process graphics of past and presentconditions, trends in historical data, and custom-builttools in spreadsheets. The statistical technologyused most often today in manufacturing is statisticalprocess control. This technology is used to monitorchemical processes against control limits andcalibration of analyzers. Statistics are also used todesign process sampling procedures, reconcile data,and illuminate process capability and variability.

Steady-state models are used in manufacturing todesign processes, plan and schedule plantoperations, and occasionally to achieve on-lineoptimization. Dynamic models have been used foroperator training, control studies, and “What if?”

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scenarios. Developing models takes time, especiallyif they are matched up to operating plants. Theaccuracy of the models is questionable over the fulloperating range of a plant. Modeling of distillationoperations is fairly well understood, while reactormodels are still custom built. Just becomingavailable are dynamic modeling systems that havemodel libraries and point-and-click interfaces formodel building.

Equipment systems today are mainly in themonitoring mode. Some of the data are readelectronically, but much is entered by hand. Vibration is being monitored on most large motors,compressors, and turbines, but the systems are notnetworked into the plant information systems.

Control is mainly on/off. Machines experiencing adisturbance are backed off to a clearly safeoperating speed because minimum changes neededto control the machine are not known. Maintenancedata systems are still in the development stage, withmuch of the data being hand-entered. Thesesystems are used to store maintenance andinspection records and to schedule maintenanceactivities.

Needs and ChallengesA high degree of automation and decision makingwill be achieved when statistical diagnosis ofprocess information becomes an integral part of theenterprise’s information system. Process controlinformation will need to be communicated upward,to identify raw materials consumed and productsmade and being made, and downward, to identifyproducts to be produced and how to do so.

Open systems and integrated applicationsIntegrating numerous and diverse computer systemsgeared to individual manufacturing tasks presentsmajor barriers to full automation. For the industry toovercome these barriers, standard-setting groupscan encourage and support vendors in theirprogress toward openness in digital control systemarchitecture and applications.

Control components, both hardware and software,will advance so that they can plug-and-play, easingcostly barriers to integration and support that limitmanufacturing advances today. Once plug-and-playis achieved, a complete control system will nolonger need to be changed to take advantage of adifferent vendor’s technology. High-speed, reliable,

wireless communications integrating audio, video,and data will be essential. Changes in architecturewill not require costly wiring, rewriting, and support.

Plug-and-play modules and openness decreasereliance on custom devices and components,freeing engineers to focus on development of newapplications, expert systems, knowledge-basedsystems, neural networks, and simulation modeling.Advances in analytical and modeling technology areneeded that will support highly accurate on-line andreal-time decision making. Long cycle time forresults will be unacceptable. In addition to smarterinstrumentation, instrument suppliers will providestandard communications.

Process controlAdvanced process control technology can bedeveloped to handle the full operating range of aplant, from start-up to shutdown. Advanced controlcan run all the time to ensure meeting productspecifications all the time. The plant must be able toeliminate as many process disturbances as possibleand to handle the nonlinear behavior of processunits. Advanced process control technologies cancontinue to develop until very specialized methodstypically associated with off-line use become on-lineparts of everyday operation. These techniques willenable plants to run optimally.

To support advanced control capabilities, the use ofin-line measurements (analysis) will grow, as willinference and prediction of stream composition. Thedevelopment of soft sensors using models andneural net technologies to predict streamcompositions will minimize the need for costlyanalyzers. Where inference and prediction cannotbe used, the alternative in-line analytical deviceswill need to be simple and rugged, which will requireadvances in analytical technology. Sample systemswill be eliminated so results will be availableinstantaneously to support decision-making.Analyzers will be self-recalibrating. They will dopreventive recalibration when measurements aredifferent, but still in tolerance, rather than whenproduct is off-specification, rework is required, anddowntime is necessary to recalibrate.

Equipment and monitoringReliability of rotating equipment must be improved.Data systems for rotating equipment need toprogress from mere monitoring to the point wherethey offer control and, eventually, prediction. Suchperformance will require accurate on-linemeasurements of machine conditions, external andinternal.

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Performance accuracy of real-time mapping needsto be improved to allow machines to be run at theirtrue permissible speeds rather than within overlyconservative limits that may reduce efficiency.Control of the machines can improve so thatbacking off from critical operating regions requiresmovement back to the real limit and notovercorrection.

Techniques for predicting the optimum time formaintenance and predicting system performancemust be developed.

Rotating equipment can be designed to allowneeded performance to be dialed into the machineby the control system. Maintenance databasesystems can evolve from the repository of datatoday to the repository of knowledge of allequipment at a manufacturing site.

Virtual reality will evolve to the point that on-linevisual inspection of the inside of equipment will bepossible, with accurate measurement being the keyto success in this area. Corrosion monitoring will beavailable to continuously monitor all parts of theequipment, not just selected points.

Data on equipment will need to enter the databaseautomatically. Wireless systems will givemaintenance people in the field access to data,diagnostic tools, and maintenance procedures.Once problems are diagnosed, parts will be orderedautomatically from the vendor’s warehouse; a localstock of spare parts will no longer be needed. By thetime the faulty equipment reaches the shop, thespare parts will have arrived. The computer will helpthe mechanic with repairs as necessary. Shut-downof units will be predicted from equipment conditions,and shutdown planning will be completelyautomated. The need for specialists will be greatlyreduced.

Process modelingProcesses can be understood well enough to buildsteady-state and dynamic models that accuratelyrepresent the plant over the full operating range.

Dynamic process models can be run at 50 to 500times real time. This goal can be met with computerspeed, calculational efficiency, or both.

Models for any use can be derived from a singlesource. Dynamic models can be an extension ofsteady-state technology. Building models can entailonly simple selection from libraries of existing

models. One day can be enough time to model anyprocess unit. Models can be robust and insensitiveto starting conditions and can match the fulloperating range of the plant. Models can shadowdynamic plant operations. Standard data exchangeis needed so that models in the library can comefrom different sources.

Advisory systemsBetter advisory tools are needed for situationmanagement, such as alarm avalanche andknowledge retention. Advisory systems can movebeyond custom-built to off-the-shelf applications.

Detailed process understanding, dynamic models,and multivariate statistics are keys to success in thistechnology area.

Advisory systems that convert raw data intoinformation and advice for use by operations andplant support staff can be developed. Such systemscan cover unit profitability, equipment performance,situation management, knowledge retention, andoperator training. These systems will progress overtime from providing information throughcalculations, to providing advice for considerationand possible action, to taking action and informingpersonnel of results.

Future advisory systems need statistical techniquesto reduce large volumes of data into diagnosticinformation. Multivariate statistical techniques areneeded to determine why dynamic process modelsdo not match plant operations.

Many applications of advisory systems will requiredynamic data reconciliation. This can become ageneric tool that can be broadly used. Sophisticatedpattern recognition techniques, such as neuralnetworks, need to be developed to convert rawprocess data into useful information.

Hardware and softwareComputers must be able to handle large volumes ofdata and calculate fast enough for real-time uses.Hardware speed and capability to store and retrievelarge quantities of data are critical to handlingprocess information.

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TECHNOLOGY VISION 2020Computers in Manufacturing—GeneralThe manufacturing operation will be an agile,reliable, reproducible, clean, efficient, responsive,and productive component of the chemicalindustry’s supply chain. Continuous improvementwill remain a way of life as automation advances.

Management and workers will be familiar withmanufacturing processes and automation.

Manufacturing operations will be guided in accordwith completely integrated information from sales,marketing, R&D, and supply. Data will flowseamlessly along the supply chain, from rawmaterials suppliers through manufacturingoperations to the customer. The three layers ofautomation— process, plant floor, and supplychain— will be connected so that data need beentered only once.

The automation will not only connect the parts of thesupply chain, but also will connect the process onthe plant floor to the commercial operation of thesupply chain, which extends from raw materialssuppliers through manufacturing operation to thecustomer. Distribution and shipping will beconsidered parts of manufacturing operations.

Manufacturing operations will respond to customerdemand that comes either by pull or by make-to-order. This demand drives scheduling, raw materialsupply, distribution, deployment of manufacturingresources, and production. The system operatesautomatically without manual intervention; logic andexpert systems will make the routine decisions.

Implied in this technology vision are computernetworks, wireless communication capability amongall components of the supply chain, and plug-and-play software well beyond the capability of the1990s.

Also, in the factory of the future, individuals whoneed to know will have instantaneous, reliableaccess to information and decision-support toolsthat will help them do their job regardless of theirlocation. Data security will be adequate to allowglobal communication of process data. Intelligent,intuitive, person–computer interfaces, often voiceactivated, will be the norm.

Computers in Manufacturing—OperationsManufacturing processes will be operated underfully controlled conditions. Automatic processcontrol will be practiced from plant start-up toshutdown.

The processes on the plant floor will be fullycontrolled and always produce what is needed.Reproducibility of products will be improved. Thesystem will compensate for variability in rawmaterials or control it within the desired range.

Use of automation will greatly increase. Clean-outwill also be automated, with proper attention tocleaned-out material. Expert systems and logic willmake these units run according to command.

Manufacturing performance will meet conversion,quality, reproducibility, and cost requirements.Process understanding will have developed to thepoint that unit operating conditions are based onpredictions from dynamic plant models accessible tothe control room. Manufacturing inventory costs willbe minimized by scheduling production campaignsthat closely match (and in some cases anticipate)customers’ needs. This degree of automation willmake the productivity of capital and people veryhigh.

The software and process equipment will be plug-and-play, with standardization and validationimproving their interface. Improved reliability andredundancy of computer hardware will assure veryhigh availability of manufacturing control throughinformation systems. Expert systems and logic willbe built into the software with no adaptationrequired. The materials-handling systems will adapteasily to changes. Process equipment will beautomated to produce a broad range of materials.

Plants will operate with only rare, unscheduledoutages caused by equipment failures. Maintenancedatabases will contain full knowledge of allequipment, with knowledge-based computerassistants coaching plant staff in making routinerepairs. Specialists will be needed only for first-timeproblems. Analytical results will be available on-lineinstantaneously, as required to support a fullyautomated manufacturing facility.

Operations will be informed of plant conditions andcorrective actions that have been taken by thecomputer. Diagnostic techniques using statistics willfacilitate this capability.

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The plant floor will instantly respond with the latestinput to schedules to meet production requirements.The plant floor also will inform the integrated systemof the status and availability of equipment, people,materials, maintenance needs, and other elementsneeded to support automated scheduling.

Batch operations of the larger manufacturers will befully controlled. The integrated and transactionallycurrent automated information system will directscheduling and production. Products will be changedusing information just an instant old, which willpermit very short lead times and excellent responseto customers.

Batch operations of small manufacturers may notjustify full automation, but will use robotics to assistoperators in tasks such as loading catalyst into thereactor. Teleoperation will allow the operator tohandle field tasks without leaving the control room.

Both continuous and batch processes will have fullyautomated handling systems for raw materials,package components, and finished products.Robotics will be used. This activity, combined withcomplete process automation, will mean a reducedneed for manual intervention.

HOW TO GET THEREOpen systems and standardsDevelopment of standards for open systems can beencouraged, and vendors can be encouraged tocreate products that meet these standards and theneeds of the CPI. These needs offer an opportunityfor academe, industry, and vendors, withgovernment support, to jointly develop thenecessary technology.

Standards for product labeling can be developed,including identification and hazard information.

Standards for computer-aided drafting and designcan be developed to ease integration and operation.

Process controlStatistical process control can be expanded intomultivariate systems.

Digital control systems can be on all units wherethey are economically justified, allowingimplementation of advanced control concepts.

Advanced controls can optimize plant operationunder most conditions.

A capacity for wireless transmission of process datawithin plant boundaries can be developed.

Equipment and monitoringRotating equipment can be broadly monitored, withimproved analysis to indicate how to movemachines out of critical speed ranges.

Maintenance databases can have automated dataentry.

Monitoring data can allow equipment performanceto be predicted six months in advance.

Real-time performance maps of rotating equipmentcan be able to be created with 1 percent accuracy.

Maintenance databases can have full analysis topinpoint maintenance problems and full on-line helpfor equipment repair.

Process modelingModeling tools can address dynamic and steady-state technologies.

Dynamic and steady-state models can exist for allprocesses and be capable of shadowing plantoperations.

Advisory systemsAll manufacturing data can be available at thedesktop computer and reduced to information andadvice for routine situations.

Key product quality results can be available on-line,and manual entry of laboratory data can beminimized.

Operations people can be informed of plantconditions by advisory systems, which will be usedwidely.

Statistical techniques can be used extensively fordata reduction and diagnosis front ends for advisoryinformation systems.

Product quality inference techniques will be usedon-line; key components will be analyzed on-line;and key entry of laboratory data will be eliminated.

Hardware and softwareIndustry can communicate to hardware and softwarevendors the criticality of computer speed, the abilityto handle large databases, and the need to provideopen systems.

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Improvements and EnhancementsProcess understanding can have developed to thepoint that units will be run on the basis of dynamicmodels.

Full automation can exist and can include controlfrom start-up to shutdown.

COMPUTERS IN PLANTENGINEERING ANDCONSTRUCTION

Current StateSome relationships between facility owners andengineering contractors reflect a time when billingfor time and materials or a fixed-price contract werethe only available paradigms for payment.

One of the factors that limits communication andpartnering is that electronic linkages betweenowners and contractors have not been developed.

In terms of engineering, old approaches are beingexecuted with high efficiency, thanks to the use ofcomputer-aided design (CAD) and computer-aidedengineering (CAE) to help engineers and designerswork efficiently. Underlying engineering practices, however, havechanged little during the past half-century.

While technological advances are necessary inengineering and plant construction, change in thisarea will be evolutionary, rather than revolutionary,as it is throughout the manufacturing sector. Therate of change will be driven by the industry’ssuccess in meeting several needs and challenges,as outlined below.

ChallengesWe predict that facility owners will frequently partnerwith engineering firms, construction companies, andmajor equipment suppliers to design and constructchemical plants with many standardized,prefabricated modular components that meetindustry-wide requirements.

Continuing investment in engineering automationwill be necessary if firms are to remain cost-effective suppliers of engineering and constructionservices. The application of concurrent engineeringapproaches will also require innovative approachesto integrating input from all potential customers.

Most of these enhancements can take place withcurrent technology, and many sophisticatedmethods have already been achieved. The need tovalidate designs before construction will lead toincreasing use of computer-generated models thatprovide holograms and other three-dimensionalCAD tools. Also, the use of robotics in plantconstruction and operation will be expanded.Integration of the measurement and informationsystems in each component will only be practicalwhen standard communication protocols becomeavailable and are widely used by the industry.

TECHNOLOGY VISION 2020Changes in Business RelationshipsContractor relationships will focus on value added,rather than time and materials. Joint ventures orpartnerships between engineers, constructioncompanies, and owners will become routine.

Data, model sharing, and exchange among owners,contractors, and subcontractors will be highlydeveloped.

A limited number of very large international firmswill be in the plant construction business,supplemented by small, highly specialized firms.

HOW TO GET THERETo forge the partnership, the following changes arenecessary:

• An industry-wide commitment to collaborativedemonstration projects for automatedtechnologies.

• The use of economic incentives to encouragecontractors to automate their operations.

• The development of incentives that encourageengineering contractors and CAD/CAE vendorsto collaborate on ways to shorten the design andconstruction cycle.

• The dissemination of sample partnershipagreements with government researchlaboratories for developing and using automatedtechnologies.

Technical AspectsAutomated design and modular construction ofchemical plants in 2020 will cost the chemicalindustry significantly less than comparable facilitiesbuilt in the 1990s.

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Standard protocols, formats, and transfer techniquespermit process design, development, simulation,and regulatory information to be translated intomechanical design and physical plant layout.

Lower operating costs, lower total invested capitalper innovation, and shorter times from concept tomanufacturing will add to the global strength of thechemical industry.

Automated design technologies will replace CADtechnology and greatly improve time needed fordesign over what it was in the 1990s.

Comprehensive engineering and constructiondatabase systems will be in place. Manyengineering steps will also be automated. Use ofmaterials (piping, steel, concrete, etc.) will be highlyoptimized. Automated design technologies willreplace CAD.

CAE techniques will become much moresophisticated, and only those tasks that demandatypical engineering judgment will not be highlyautomated.

Time and costs for the project cycle, includingconstruction, will be greatly reduced over what theywere in the 1990s.

Generally, data will flow smoothly from conceptthrough design to construction and on into plantmaintenance and operation, with-out any need fordata reentry.

Automated engineering and design systems willcreate a highly detailed virtual plant capable of

• simulating plant start-up;• verifying procedures, including material flow,

energy needs, and emergency response plans;and

• training operators.

The quality of engineering and design will improve,with plant procedures verified in the virtual plant.

All information developed during design will beavailable to operations during the start-up andrunning of the facilities.

Construction activity sequences will be developed,and many tasks in construction, such as qualityassurance and inspection, will be assisted byrobotics.

HOW TO GET THEREStandard protocols, formats, and transfer techniqueswill be developed that permit process design,development, simulation, and regulatory informationto be translated into mechanical design, andphysical plant layout.

Comprehensive engineering, design, andconstruction database systems will be developedand put in place.

The use of materials, such as piping, steel, andconcrete, will be highly optimized.

Intelligent systems will be developed and refined sothat knowledge-based and cognitive systemsbecome the norm.

Standards necessary for common industryinformation to be shared can be developed.

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Chapter 7

MANUFACTURINGAND OPERATIONS

The revenue-generating capability of the chemicalindustry is derived from its ability to deliverchemicals and materials that satisfy customers’needs. Manufacturing operations plays a key role inthat activity. Maintaining and improving thecompetitiveness of the U.S. chemical industry willrequire advances in six areas of manufacturingoperations: (1) customer focus, (2) productioncapability, (3) information and process control, (4)engineering design and construction, (5) integrationof suppliers, and (6) global expansion

CUSTOMER FOCUS

Current StateThe U.S. chemical industry has made significantimprovements in its relationships with its customers.This has been brought about by increasedawareness of the importance of the customer andgreater efficiency in the order, supply, and paymentfunctions. Improvements in customer demandforecasting, however, need to be made to ensurethat inventory more correctly matches thecustomer’s needs.

Needs and ChallengesTo enhance supply chain focus on the customer, theindustry should move toward improvement in (1) thereliability of supply, (2) the quality and consistencyof products, (3) responsiveness to changingcustomer requirements, and (4) partnering forinnovation.

Improvements in the response to customerdemandThe industry should tailor its manufacturing anddelivery systems to customer demand, rather thanmere replenishment of capability inventory. This willrequire new technologies.

• Because of marketplace variability, thecustomer’s demand forecast will not likelyimprove in accuracy, so the industry’scapabilities must be improved to respond rapidlyonce an order is received. One of the newtechnologies required will be software that canrapidly convert customer orders into productionand delivery actions that operate in parallel.

• To meet customer needs, different process unitsmust be brought into use quickly. This mayrequire new technology to make process unitsthat are dedicated to product families, ratherthan individual products. These units will needto be designed to be easily cleaned and quicklysupplied with raw materials. Unused capacitywill need to be shared across a very largeproduct base so that variations in customerorders can be managed economically.

• Improving the flow of products from thechemical industry plant to the customer requiresdelivery technologies that respond to needsquickly and economically. Flexibility and agilityin the delivery system is essential and must bedeveloped.

Products of high quality and consistencyA new level of quality and consistency will berequired. New manufacturing technology needs tobe developed so that products can be made with amuch narrower band of variation.

Advances in testing and understanding chemistryand process technologies are necessary to achieveneeded improvements. The goal will be to haveparametric-based acceptance of all products andintermediates. A significant challenge will be toapply new technology and science to products andprocesses developed in the past.

Partnering for innovationPartnering with the customer to bring forthinnovation will become normal business practice.New products with related process technologiesmust be driven by the customer and the industrymember.

New concepts of joint work at each stage of theinnovation cycle will be required. Research will need

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to be undertaken with the customers and suppliers.It may be necessary to develop concepts like“shares’’ that are based on the research investmentthat entitles the provider to a certain share of therevenue generated. It may require the establishmentof joint ventures to effectively exploit theopportunity. In the simplest form, it involves acustomer and supplier jointly developing a newproduct.

PRODUCTION CAPABILITY

Current StateAs the industry evolves, retrofitting and new plantconstruction are occurring. Prioritization is arequirement as new technologies become availablefor new products and processes. In addition to newchemical and process technologies that improve themanufacturing capability, there are newmanufacturing practices and concepts that enablethe producer to better serve the customer.

Needs and ChallengesTo advance the industry’s production capability, newtechnology is needed in several key areas. Theseinclude: (1) reduced variability in the way chemicalsare produced, (2) improved manufacturingprocesses to protect health, safety, and theenvironment, (3) agility to quickly respond tochange, (4) reconfigurable manufacturing plants, (5)continued need for skilled workers, (6) integratedmanagement of the production capability, and (7) acapability to access product and process informationquickly and then manage the improvements.

Reduced manufacturing variabilityA key challenge to the chemical industry is tocontinuously improve the consistency andpredictability of operations.

Improved impact of manufacturing processes onthe environmentImprovement in material and energy balanceclosure is an important activity of the industry thatrequires new technology. Analytical methods willallow the industry to better understand products atthe molecular level. Types of technology requiredinclude on-line frequent measurements and thedevelopment of scientific risk assessmentmethodologies.

The ability to respond with agility to unexpectedor anticipated changeThe rate at which change is occurring within theU.S. chemical industry is gradually increasing.Shorter product life cycles and new productdevelopment present continuing challenges. Thiswill require a continuous infusion of new technologyto cope effectively.

New technology requirements are varied anddifficult to assemble. Some examples of technologyrequirements are

• process equipment that can be easilyreconfigured to make other products,

• support equipment that can quickly adapt to newproduction requirements,

• a management system that facilitates change asan integral part of production capability, and

• systems that increase agility among raw andpackaging material suppliers.

Manufacturing reconfigurationProcess plants have often been built for a singlepurpose or product. However, it is more economicalto design and build plants so that they can be easilyconverted to other purposes as needed. In addition,new technology is needed in understanding thechemistry and chemical engineering involved andharmonizing the requirements of the process.Ultimately, production of different chemicals at thesame plant could shift seamlessly in response tocustomer needs.

Continued need for skilled workersThe depth and understanding of chemical, product,and process technology will require a highly skilledworkforce. The integration of production capabilitieswill make the concept of teamwork more importantthan ever. Industry can work with high schools,colleges, and vocational schools to ensuremeaningful courses are developed that correspondto actual industry needs.

Integration of production capabilityChemical companies are increasingly investing innew technology to integrate all aspects of businessoperations. Improved production capability is acritical goal of this new technology. The productionprocess also needs to support the customer focus ofthese integrated systems. The systems will bepeople-oriented with computer software providingthe connectivity. Connectivity will link the plant floor,the maintenance shops, and the analyticallaboratories to purchasers and suppliers. With the

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establishment of inter-connectivity and integration,more sophisticated technologies will be possible thatwill greatly enhance the industry’s competitiveness.

A capability to assess historic process andproduct technology and use it to manageimprovementsNew technology that better uses knowledge about aproduct and its manufacturing process is essential ifnext-generation improvements are to build uponprevious accomplishments.

Databases will be required that contain drawings,documents, prints, videos, and other forms of datathat can be easily accessed through quickinformation retrieval.

The technology to access historical data as a basisfor additional improvement is vital. Both continuedand step change in products and processesimprovement will be facilitated.

INFORMATION AND PROCESSCONTROL

Current StateManufacturing operations will require a continualinfusion of the newest information and processcontrol technologies if the chemical industry is tomaintain its global ability to reliably deliver productsthat best serve the customer at the lowest cost.

The chemical process industry will have computersystems that perform the manufacturing tasksrelated to process control and information,modeling, statistical process control, equipmentmonitoring and maintenance, documentmanagement, laboratory systems, scheduling, etc.In the past, systems were often purchased as stand-alone entities. As the industry works to achieveintegration of systems, it creates new softwarerequirements.

Needs and ChallengesThe agility provided by new integrated systemsneeds to be exploited to improve thecompetitiveness of the U.S. chemical industry.

Elements required for improvements in computercapabilities include the following: (1) the use of dataand an integrated system to allow the rapidimplementation of new product and processtechnology globally, (2) the availability of current

information to support global strategies to enhancecompany competitiveness, (3) significantimprovements in make-and-deliver systems.

The operations of the make-and-deliver systemwill have a significant improve-ment ineffectiveness.Integrated systems that improve the effectiveness ofthe make-and-deliver system of a company will be arequirement in the future. Customers will continueto be the focal point and a company’s ability tosatisfy their requirements will be enhanced.Technology will advance through improvements toindividual modules in the integrated system. Theseadvances will enhance the capability of the overallmake-and-deliver system. Furthermore, newtechnology to globally integrate systems capabilitieswill require greatly improved multilingual capabilitythat can handle idea complexity and technicalinformation and language.

The use of data and the integrated system willallow the rapid development andimplementation of new-product and processtechnology globally.The time required to bring new products andprocesses on-line will be significantly reduced byimproved effectiveness of the product developmentprocess. Better definition of the potentialapplication, fitting the available or new technology tothe application, building the model materials orchemicals, and establishing the manufacturabilitywill be enhanced. This will occur by increasing theavailability of information and data relevant to thecommercialization process. Access to pertinentinformation established the capability to deploy thetechnology globally in a rapid fashion. The wholeprocess will stress speed to market and the rapiddevelopment of the application.

A major focus should be the development of theapplication requirements with the customer in mind.

The changing requirements in manufacturability willrequire companies to increase their agility.

Real-time availability of global transactionalinformation will enhance U.S. chemicalcompany competitiveness.The global availability of integrated and currentinformation and the discipline of routine transactionswill allow a more strategic approach to globalproduct line management. It will also allow theeffective execution of the global supply chains in aroutine fashion.

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A significant improvement in the disciplineneeded to effectively execute make-and-deliverprocesses will occur.A key element of successful make-and-deliverprocesses is an effective method to deliverconsistent and reliable products. Harmonizingcomputer information systems with process controlsystems provides for this ability. New technology isneeded to ensure the harmonization of integratedsystems with process control practices and systems.

BUILDING NEW PLANTS

Current StateElectronic links allow plant designs to be done inany part of the world with the contractor and theowner simultaneously involved. Drafting boards andlinen prints are being replaced by electronic designand CAD systems. CAE helps engineers anddesigners be more efficient.

Needs and ChallengesThe building of new plants continues to be in a stateof change. Improvements will result from bothinnovations and the better application of oldtechnologies. Future conditions will cause thischange to continue. (1) Owners will often partnerwith the engineering firms, construction companies,and major equipment suppliers when building newplants. (2) Standard, prefabricated modularcomponents designed for industry-widerequirements will be increasingly used. (3) Pressureto shorten the time needed to design and build aplant will force significant change in the way thisprocess is carried out. (4) The design of a plant willbe done globally to minimize the cost. (5) The useof electronic footprints of existing plants will enableplant designs to be done more quickly.

The use of standard, prefabricated modularcomponents designed for industry-widerequirements will increase.This trend is driven by the need to shrink the time tomarket, as well as to reduce engineering andconstruction costs. Use of electronic media for thedesign process allows the adaptation of a standarddesign to specific situations. Owners will partnerwith engineering firms, construction companies, andmajor equipment suppliers to make this a standardoperating procedure.

Pressure to shorten the time needed to designand build plants will force significant changes inthe design and construction process.Plants will need to be designed and built in a muchshorter time. Technology is needed to automate thedesign process through modular concepts in easy-to-use software. In addition, compatiblecommunications systems between major equipmentsuppliers and their design firms will allow for rapidtranslation of concepts into innovative plantstructures. Partnering is required to get adequateresponse from the supplier to cut the building time.Dynamic simulation will allow for integrated designwith verification of structural integrity. This willshorten start-up time and eliminate overdesign.

Plant designs will be centrally stored andavailable for worldwide use.This technique is being used now on manyinternational projects with less expensive labor invarious parts of the world. As electronic networkingincreases, this activity will expand and the capabilityof these design shops will improve. New technologyis required to enhance the speed at which thedesign can be done. Much can be learned from thesoftware industry, where designing occursworldwide.

The use of electronic footprints of existingplants will allow the designs to be completedmore quickly.Databases for the designs of current plants are oftenelectronically accessible. The next step is todevelop new technology to use the footprint of anexisting plant and modify it so that it meets theneeds of a new plant of a different size or changedproduct distribution.

SUPPLIER RELATIONSHIPS

Current StateThe suppliers that support the commercialoperations of the U.S. chemical industry areinstrumental to the success of the industry. Suppliers are diverse and use many technologies toprovide the industry with key ingredients. Theirvariety extends from crude oil and gas-basedmaterials to silicon. These materials also includepackaging components, catalysts, inorganicmaterials, fillers, etc. Additionally, the energy thatthe industry uses comes from suppliers that provideelectricity, natural gas, and other fuels. All are vitalto the success of the industry.

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The industry uses contracts, spot purchasing, solesourcing, and partnerships to obtain criticalresources and products. In some cases, therelationship is an electronic connection that allowsfor monitoring the use of the supplier’s product and“just-in-time’’ delivery. In other cases, inventory isreserved at the user’s site to assure a supply.Pipeline supplies are also common. Maintainingquality relationships with suppliers is very importantto the success of the U.S. chemical industry.

Needs and ChallengesOut-sourcing of activities will continue in theindustry, requiring the development of specialrelationships. Everything from cafeteria food tomaintenance materials management is being doneby suppliers. Companies will increasingly focus oncore competencies. This involves developingstrong partnership relationships with suppliersfocusing on expertise relevant to the specialty.

GLOBAL OPERATIONS

Current StateThe U.S. chemical industry operates with a globalfocus. Extensive operations are conducted offshore.For a company to be global, a significantunderstanding of the local market conditions mustbe gained.

Needs and ChallengesTwo major trends will continue to enhance theglobal operations of the U.S. chemical industry:sourcing strategy will be integrated and executedglobally, and information systems will need to beglobally compatible.

A significant challenge that requires improvement isthe ability to effectively ship and move materials ina global fashion with increased speed. With presentoceangoing shipping, the cost of sea travel and theinventory value that is tied up are detriments toagility that could significantly assist in optimizingglobal economics. Shorter staging times and fastertransit times will be required with no loss in safety orsecurity.

Integrating and executing sourcing strategiesgloballyAs product volumes increase in a particular country,product designs are required that use commonintermediates and, at the last step of production, aretailored to a family of products and packages that

suit local needs. This last step in product identity isa vital part of doing business globally and needs tobe a key part of the strategy for enhanced industrycompetitiveness.

Global compatibility of information systemsFor U.S. chemical companies to improve theircapability to operate globally, an information systemthat is capable of supporting the activity is needed.The characteristics of this system must be alignedwith the needs of a global product, application, anddelivery team. Without this information system, thetime for transaction will be much too long for acompetitive activity.

Ability to quickly and effectively ship and movematerials worldwideImproved efficiencies in shipping materials by air,sea, and land continue to challenge the industry.The costs of moving chemical goods must beconsidered in light of the costs of warehousing. Animprovement is needed that reduces both the totalinventory time and cost-to-market. Technology forfaster ships seems to be emerging. This technologymust be combined with a supply chain that moveschemical materials to the ship from the producerand then from the dock to the user or customer. Thiswill greatly facilitate the global transport ofchemicals.

TECHNOLOGY VISION 2020Manufacturing OperationsThe Technology Vision 2020 for manufacturing andoperations in the U.S. chemical industry combinessix areas for advancement. The vision assumescontinued advancement of the industry in a worldthat experiences continued industrial developmentand improvement.

In 2020, manufacturing and operations are an agile,reliable, reproducible, clean, efficient, responsive,and productive component of the U.S. chemicalindustry’s supply chain. Continuous improvement isa way of life. Customers receive a consistent supplyof reliable products that satisfy all requirements. Theindustry responds to the customers’ needs in anagile fashion. New products are introduced fromtechnology platforms with a significant reduction inintroduction cycle time.

Advances in shipping management and equipmentallow for rapid movement of chemicals and

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materials from country to country. This capability isa integral part of the sourcing strategy.

Management and workers are familiar withmanufacturing processes, automation, customers,and suppliers. Manufacturing and operations areguided in accordance with completely integratedinformation from sales, marketing, research anddevelopment, customers, and suppliers. Data flowseamlessly along the supply chain from raw materialsuppliers through manufacturing operations andfinally to the customer. The three layers ofautomation— process, plant floor, and supplychain— are connected so that data entry need occuronly once.

These capabilities are supported by computers,software systems, networks, and all other wirelesscommunications, all with plug-and-play features.This seamless system links all customers, sites, andsuppliers worldwide. Security systems to protectproprietary information have evolved to meet userneeds.

Process control is highly automated, as are plantstart-up, operation, and shutdown. Models with morethan 100,000 equations are routinely solved toprovide dynamic simulation-based control. Statisticsplay a key role in determining the quality of thesignals.

Raw material efficiencies are significantly improved.Process clean-outs are automated with monitoringas a routine and frequent part of the process.

Manufacturing performance meets conversion,quality, environmental, reproducibility, and costrequirements. Process chemistry and engineeringknowledge has developed to a state where unitoperating conditions can be based on dynamicmodels available in the control room.

Partnering for innovation exists with the industry’scustomers. Definition of application requirements isa critical part of the partnership. New products withappropriate manufacturability are developed withcustomer involvement.

Partnerships also exist to improve the existingproduct lines so that products and intermediates areprotective of public health and safety andenvironmentally sound. Interaction with thegovernment and regulatory agencies is facilitated by

a sense of shared mission and partnership inprotecting human health, safety, and theenvironment.

Maintenance of the chemical plant will advance andbe integrated with operational activities.Sophisticated tools have continued to improvereliability. Maintenance databases will contain fullknowledge of all equipment, and knowledge-basedcomputers monitor routine and preventive repairs.The maintenance system will be an expert systemthat prevents failure through the proper level ofmaintenance. The process plant will be a trulycontinuous operation with enhanced reliability.

The plant floor responds to schedules that meetproduction requirements using raw materials madeavailable in tandem with the plant floor’s response.Because information is transactionally current,scheduling systems are optimized with real-timeinput. The plant floor informs the integrated systemof the status and availability of staff, equipment,materials, maintenance needs, and otherinformation to support scheduling.

Batch operations have various degrees ofautomation. These operations are a part of theintegrated supply chain activities. They will operateaccording to the changing needs of the customers.Lead times are short, and responsiveness andagility are high. Batch operations are a criticalcapability in the chemical industry. The batchequipment provides a very broad product line for theindustry and its customers.

Both continuous and batch operations haveautomated handling systems for raw material,packaging components, and finished products. These support systems are agile to handle a widearray of products. The principle of delaying productidentity to the latest possible time operates withinthese production capabilities.

Technology for plant design and construction willcost significantly less than in the past. Standards willbe developed where appropriate, with modularity acommon practice. Design and constructionimprovement will allow plants to come on-stream insignificantly less time. Plants will be designed usingelectronic footprints of past plants with automatedconversions to existing needs. Engineeringautomation will be used extensively. Plants will beeasily convertible to other products as economies

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change. Users, engineering and design firms,construction companies, and major equipmentsuppliers will work in partnership to improve thesystem.

HOW TO GET THEREThe industry could form a consortium to developagility models for manufacturing processes.

Individual companies could partner with customersin meeting their needs by the joint development ofnew product technology.

The industry can develop the technology to buildreconfigurable plants that are easily converted inresponse to changing market demands.

The industry can work with academia to developtraining for the professionals who develop, design,build, operate, and improve facilities.Software groups can work with industry to improveoperations.

Partnerships or consortia can be created withengineering firms to develop the technology toshorten significantly the lead time from conceptstage to operation.

The industry can work with transport and logisticfirms to develop more efficient means of globaltransport that protect human health, safety, and theenvironment.

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CONCLUSION

The chemical industry has been a driving force insupporting a healthy U.S. economy in terms ofproviding jobs, a healthy trade surplus, and keyproducts for other U.S. manufacturers. There will begrowing challenges for the chemical industry overthe next 25 years as global competition, technologyadvances, public health and environmentalconcerns, and new markets and products shape thefuture.

The U.S. chemical industry is ready to meet thesechallenges, and it is committed to continuing to be aworld leader. The vision out-lined in this reporthighlights where the industry wants to be in the year2020. It wants to lead the world in technologydevelopment, manufacturing, and profitability, whileoptimizing health and safety and ensuringenvironmental stewardship.

Technology Vision 2020 outlines a wide range ofrecommendations that will assist the chemicalindustry in advancing toward its vision. Involvementby a broad spectrum of groups— such asgovernment, academic researchers and teachers,suppliers, standard-setting groups— individually or incooperation with the chemical industry itself will becrucial. We challenge all who see roles forthemselves in the advancement of theserecommendations to do so. Not only the chemicalindustry will benefit, but more importantly, our nationitself, of which the industry provides muchunderlying support.

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CONTRIBUTERSDr. Paul AnastasU.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Dr. Paul AndersonDuPont Merck

Dr. Ron ArcherUniversity of Massachusetts

Dr. John ArmourAir Products & Chemicals

Ms. Diana ArtemisChemical Manufacturers Association

Mr. Steve AshkinRochester Midland

Mr. John BadgerOlin Corporation

Ms. Suzanne BakerAmerican Chemical Society

Dr. Bhavik BakshiOhio State University

Mr. Mark BargPrice Waterhouse LLC

Mr. Edwin BasslerStone & Webster Engineering Corporation

Dr. Prabi BasuSearle

Mr. Earl BeaverMonsanto Company

Mr. Dave BennettDow Corning Corporation

Dr. Jozef BiceranoDow Chemical Company

Mr. Douglas BlairHercules Incorporated

Dr. Henry BlountNational Science Foundation

Mr. Hal BozarthChemical Industry Council of New Jersey

Ms. Jill BradyChemical Industry Council of New Jersey

Dr. Joseph BreenU.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Dr. Thomas BrettUniroyal Chemical Co., Inc.

Mr. R. Robert BriggsRhone-Poulenc, Inc.

Dr. James BristolParke-Davis Pharmaceutical Research

Dr. Phillip BrodskyMonsanto Company

Mr. Dale BrooksAmerican Institute of Chemical Engineers

Mr. Harry BuzzardProcess Equipment Manufacturers

Dr. Pat ConfaloneDuPont Merck

Ms. Padma ChitrapuScience Applications International

Dr. Helena Li ChumNational Renewable Energy Lab, U.S. Department ofEnergy

Dr. Stuart CooperUniversity of Delaware

Mr. Bruce CranfordU.S. Department of Energy

Dr. Patricia CunniffPrince George’s Community College

Mr. Dick DabneySynthetic Organic Chemistry Manufacturers Association

Dr. Costel DensonUniversity of Delaware

Mr. W. DeVorePhillips Petroleum Company

Mr. Neil DevroyRexene Corporation

Mr. Barry DiamonstoneNational Institute of Standards and Technology

Dr. Marc DonohueJohns Hopkins University

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Dr. Robert DorschDuPont

Dr. Miles DrakeAir Products & Chemicals, Inc.

Dr. John DudaPennsylvania State University

Dr. David EastmanLonza, Inc.

Dr. Jerry EbnerMonsanto Company

Mr. Arnold EisenbergDuPont

Dr. Allan FordLamar University

Dr. James FortBattelle

Mr. Halcott FossOlin Corporation

Dr. Marye Ann FoxUniversity of Texas

Dr. Jean FutrellUniversity of Delaware

Dr. E. Charles Galloway

Dr. Juan GarcesDow Chemical Co.

Dr. Bahman GhorashiCleveland State University

Dr. David GoldenSRI International

Mr. Peter GreenU.S. Department of Energy

Mr. Joe HalfordPDXI Consultant

Dr. Robert HallAmoco Corporation

Mr. R. HankinsonPhillips Petroleum Company

Dr. Edward HayesOhio State University

Dr. Victoria HaynesB. F. Goodrich Company

Mr. James HeaddenTRW Safety System

Dr. Louis HegedusW. R. Grace & Company

Dr. Jay HenisHenis Technologies, Inc.

Dr. Barrie HespPfizer Central Research

Dr. Fred HilemanMonsanto Company

Dr. Christopher HillGeorge Mason University

Dr. Ralph Hinde, Jr.Los Alamos National Laboratory

Mr. Richard Hommel

Dr. Kendall HoukUniversity of California– Los Angeles

Dr. Arthur HumphreyPennsylvania State University

Mr. W. Jeffrey HurstHershey Foods Corporation

Mr. John HutchinsonAir Products & Chemicals

Ms. Deitra JacksonAmerican Chemical Society

Dr. Sidney JonesHoechst Celanese Corporation

Dr. Donald JostCouncil for Chemical Research

Mr. Yogesh KansalDuPont

Mr. George KellerUnion Carbide Technical Center

Dr. Frank KelleyUniversity of Akron

Ms. Dorothy KelloggChemical Manufacturers Association

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Dr. Carl Kip KingDuPont

Dr. Ganesh KishoreCEREGEN

Dr. James KmiecikHuntsman Corporation

Dr. Fritz KokeshPhillips Petroleum Company

Dr. Ed KostinerUniversity of Connecticut

Dr. Lester Krogh3M (Retired)

Dr. Michael LadischPurdue University

Mr. Gerald LedererAmerican Institute of Chemical Engineers

Dr. P. LewisRohm and Haas

Mr. Charles LindahlElf Atochem North America, Inc.

Mr. Merl LindstromPhillips Research Center

Mr. K. LiuUnion Carbide Corporation

Mr. Robert LumpkinAmoco Corporation

Dr. Ashwin MadiaCargill

Dr. Tom ManuelAir Products & Chemicals

Dr. Tobin MarksNorthwestern University

Dr. Barry MarrsIndustrial Biocatalysis, Inc.

Mr. Ranjit MazumdarOcean Spray Cranberry

Dr. Ken McFaddenW. R. Grace & Company

Dr. Gary McGrawEastman Chemical Company

Mr. John McLaughlinDev Mar Group Ltd.

Dr. Donald McLemoreDow Chemical Company

Dr. Eve MengerCorning, Inc.

Mr. Craig MesenbrinkNalco/Exxon Energy Chemicals, LP

Mr. Peter MoranLonza, Inc.

Mr. William MorinNational Association of Manufacturers

Dr. John MunroMartin Marietta Energy Systems

Dr. Michael MyrickUniversity of South Carolina

Dr. Shuming NieIndiana University

Dr. Norine NoonanFlorida Institute of Technology

Mr. John NoronhaSun Company, Inc.

Dr. James NottkeDuPont

Ms. Judith O’BrienThe Keystone Center

Dr. John O’ConnellUniversity of Virginia

Dr. Marcel OlbrechtLonza, Inc.

Mr. John OlesonDow Corning Corporation

Mr. Gregory OndichU.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Mr. Gary PageMonsanto

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Mr. Mark PalmerNational Institute of Standards and Technology

Dr. Kimberly PratherUniversity of California

Dr. Franklyn PrendergastMayo Graduate School of Medicine

Mr. Marc PowellRexene Corporation

Dr. Charles RaderOccidental Chemical Corporation

Mr. Brian RamakerShell Oil Company

Mr. Jeff RichardsonLawrence Livermore National Laboratory, U.SDepartment of Energy

Mr. Gary RiggottCiba–Corning Diagnostic Corporation

Mr. J. Thomas RobinsonNyacol Products, Inc.

Mr. Roger RolkeShell Development Company

Dr. Ron RousseauGeorgia Institute of Technology

Mr. David RudyManagement Resources, Inc.

Mr. Michael SaftSaft America

Ms. Mary Jeanne SandHelene Curtis Industries

Ms. Linda SchillingNational Institute of Standards and Technology

Mr. Tom SchmidtOak Ridge National Laboratory

Dr. David SchuttAmerican Chemical Society

Mr. Robert SchwaarSRI

Mr. Richard SchwarzLaurel Industries, Inc.

Dr. C. Thomas ScianceSciance Consulting Services, Inc.

Dr. Raymond SeltzerCiba-Geigy Corporation

Dr. Hratch SemerjianNational Institute of Standards and Technology

Mr. C. ShearerShell Oil Company

Dr. George ShierDow Chemical Company

Dr. Subhas SidkarU.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Dr. Richard SiemanLos Alamos National Laboratory

Mr. Anthony SimoneNational Association of Chemical Distributors

Mr. Robert SloughAir Products & Chemicals, Inc.

Dr. Fernley SmithACS Rubber Division

Dr. G. Warren SmithSoutheastern Louisiana University

Dr. Joseph SmithDow Chemical Company

Dr. Richard SmithBattelle

Mr. James SpanswickBridges Tic

Mr. Kirk SpitzerAlfa Laval Thermal, Inc.

Mr. Gene SteadmanHoechst Celanese

Mr. Paul StoneDow Chemical Company

Mr. Gary StricklerDow Chemical Company

Mr. Edward TakeMallinckrodt Chemical, Inc.

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Dr. A. Wayne TamarelliDock Resins Corporation

Dr. John TaoAir Products & Chemicals

Dr. Tyler ThompsonDow Chemical Company

Mr. Clark ThurstonUnion Carbide Corporation

Mr. James TippingICI Americas

Mr. Raymond TotoSun Company, Inc.

Dr. James TouDow Chemical Company

Dr. James TrainhamDuPont

Ms. Susan TurnerAmerican Chemical Society

Dr. Francis ViaAkzo Nobel Chemicals, Inc.

Mr. John VolpeLonza, Inc.

Mr. Ray WalkerDuPont

Dr. Edel WassermanDuPont

Mr. Jack WeaverAmerican Institute of Chemical Engineers

Dr. Steve WeinerBattelle

Mr. James WesselDow Corning Corporation

Mr. Henry Whalen, Jr.PQ Corporation

Dr. Scott WheelwrightScios Nova

Dr. John WiesenfeldFlorida Atlantic University

Dr. Gene WildsDuPont

Dr. Neil WintertonICI

Dr. John WiseMobil Research & Development Corporation

Ms. Madeline WoodruffBattelle

Dr. Vicki WysockiVirginia Commonwealth University

Mr. Floyd YocumSun Chemical Company

Mr. Michael ZeldesDuPont Medical Services

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VISION 2020 WORKSHOPPARTICIPANTSMr. Stephen AshkinRochester Midland Corporation

Ms. Suzanne BakerAmerican Chemical Society

Mr. Mark BargPrice Waterhouse LLP

Mr. Bernard BaumanComposite Particles, Inc.

Mr. Earl BeaverMonsanto Company

Mr. Douglas BlairHercules Incorporated Research Center

Ms. Carol BurnsLos Alamos National Laboratory

Mr. Frank ChildsScientech

Ms. Padma ChitrapuScience Applications International Corp.

Dr. Helena Li ChumNational Renewable Energy Lab

Mr. Randy CollardDow Chemical Company

Mr. Bruce CranfordU.S. Department of Energy

Mr. Dick DabneySOCMA

Mr. Doug Dickens, Jr.B. F. Goodrich Company

Dr. Robert DorschDuPont

Dr. Miles DrakeAir Products & Chemicals

Mr. Edward DuffyAllied Signal

Dr. Jerry EbnerMonsanto Company

Mr. Robert EpperlyCatalytica

Mr. Louis EpsteinEnvironmental Defense Fund

Mr. Edward FisherMichigan Tech University

Mr. Juan GarcesDow Chemical Company

Dr. Bahman GhorashiCleveland State University

Dr. David GoldenSRI International

Mr. Bob GowerLyondell Petrochemical Company

Mr. Peter GreenU.S. Department of Energy

Mr. Michael GuerinOak Ridge National Laboratory

Mr. R. HankinsonPhillips Petroleum Company

Mr. Steven HassurU.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Dr. Victoria HaynesB. F. Goodrich Company

Dr. Jay HenisHenis Technologies

Dr. Ralph Hinde, Jr.Los Alamos National Laboratory

Ehr Ping HuangfuU.S. Department of Energy

Dr. Sidney JonesAlliance to Save Energy

Mr. Mark KaufmanHatco Corporation

Mr. Larry KershnerDow Chemical Company

Mr. Carl KingDuPont Nylon I&S

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Mr. Roger KisnerOak Ridge National Laboratory

Mr. William KochNIST/CSTL

Mr. Edward KordoskiAmerican Chemical Society

Ms. Gloria KulesaU.S. Department of Energy

Mr. Ed LipinskiBattelle

Mr. K. LiuUnion Carbide Corporation

J. Terry LynchNIST/U.S. Department of Commerce

Dr. Barry MarrsIndustrial Biocatalysis, Inc.

Dr. Donald McLemoreDow Chemical Company

Mr. Craig MesenbrinkNalco/Exxon Energy Chemicals, LP

Mr. John MunroOak Ridge National Laboratory

Dr. Michael MyrickUniversity of South Carolina

Mr. John NoronhaEastman Kodak Company

Dr. Marcel OlbrechtLonza, Inc.

Mr. John OlesonDow Corning Company

Mr. Ted PaetkauDow Corning Corporation

Gene PetersenNational Renewable Energy Lab

Mr. Douglas RaberNational Research Council

Dr. Charles RaderOccidental Chemical Corporation

Mr. Brian RamakerShell Oil Company

Ms. Kathleen ReamAmerican Chemical Society

Mr. Dick ReidOak Ridge National Laboratory

Mr. Jeff RichardsonLawrence Livermore National Lab

Mr. Roger RolkeShell Development Company

Mr. David RudyManagement Resources, Inc.

Mr. Michael SaftSaft America

Mr. Dale SchaeferU.S. Department of Energy

Mr. William SchertzArgonne National Laboratory

Ms. Linda SchillingAdvanced Technology Program

Dr. Tom SchmidtOak Ridge National Laboratory

Mr. David SchuttAmerican Chemical Society

Dr. C. Thomas ScianceSciance Consulting Services, Inc.

Dr. Richard SiemonLos Alamos National Laboratory

Mr. Robert SloughAir Products & Chemicals

Dr. Fernley SmithACS Rubber Division

Dr. G. Warren SmithSoutheastern Louisiana University

Mr. Paul SpaiteRadian Corporation

Mr. James SpanswickBridges Tic

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Mr. Paul StoneDow Chemical Company

Dr. A. Wayne TamarelliDock Resins Corporation

Dr. Tyler ThompsonDow Chemical Company

Mr. James TouDow Chemical Company

Ms. Susan TurnerAmerican Chemical Society

Mr. William ValdezU.S. Department of Energy

Dr. Francis ViaAkzo Nobel Chemicals, Inc.

Mr. Matthew WagnerPraxair, Inc.

Dr. Steven WeinerBattelle

Mr. Henry Whalen, Jr.PQ Corporation

Dr. David WhiteDow Chemical Company

Mr. Neil WintertonICI PLC

Ms. Madeline WoodruffBattelle

Mr. Floyd YocumSun Chemical Company

Mr. Fred ZerkelInstitute of Gas Technology

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AMERICAN CHEMICAL SOCIETY (ACS),the world’s largest scientific society, wasestablished in 1876. ACS is a nonprofit educational and scientific organization, chartered byCongress, with more than 151,000 individual chemical scientists and engineers as members.The Society serves its members in industry, academe, and government by encouraging theadvancement of the chemical sciences and technologies while helping to solve the problemsof an increasingly technological society. ACS, 1155 16th Street, NW, Washington, DC 20036,(202) 872-4600.

AMERICAN INSTITUTE OF CHEMICAL ENGINEERS (AIChE), founded in 1908,is a non-profit, professional association that provides leadership in advancing the chemicalengineering profession. Its membership of approximately 60,000 is made up of individualswho work in industry, government, academia, and consulting, as well as students and retirees.Its members are creative problem solvers who use chemistry, physics, and mathematics todevelop processes and design and operate plants that alter the physical or chemical states ofmaterials to make useful products at a reasonable cost and in the safest manner possible.AIChE, 345 E. 47th Street, New York, NY 10017-2395, (212) 705-7336.

The CHEMICAL MANUFACTURERS ASSOCIATION (CMA) is a nonprofit tradeassociation whose member companies account for more than 90 percent of the basicindustrial chemical productive capability in the United States. Founded in 1872, CMA is one ofthe oldest manufacturing trade associations in the Western Hemisphere. CMA, 1300 WilsonBoulevard, Arlington, VA 22209, (703) 741-5000.

The COUNCIL FOR CHEMICAL RESEARCH (CCR) seeks to advance research inchemistry-based sciences, engineering, and technology that benefits society and the nationalwell-being through productive interactions among industrial, academic, and governmentalresearch sectors. CCR’s membership comprises more than 200 industrial companies,universities, government laboratories, and research institutes that collectively perform morethan $7 billion annually in chemically related R&D. The member organizations arerepresented by more than 450 of the top chemical R&D managers in the country. CCR, 1620L Street, NW, Suite 825, Washington, DC 20036, (202) 429-3971.

The SYNTHETIC ORGANIC CHEMICAL MANUFACTURERS ASSOCIATION(SOCMA) is the leading association representing the batch and custom chemical industry.This industry produces 95 percent of the 50,000 chemicals manufactured in the United Stateswhile making a $60 billion annual contribution to the economy. SOCMA’s 260 membercompanies are representative of the industry and are typically small businesses with fewerthan 50 employees and less than $50 million in annual sales. SOCMA, 1100 New YorkAvenue, NW, Suite 1090, Washington, DC 20005, (202) 414-4113.