u.s. property underwriters presentation february 1, 2007

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1 U.S. Property Underwriters Presentation February 1, 2007

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U.S. Property Underwriters Presentation February 1, 2007. CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR THE PURPOSES OF THE “SAFE HARBOR” PROVISIONS OF THE PRIVATE SECURITIES LITIGATION REFORM ACT OF 1995. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: U.S. Property Underwriters Presentation February 1, 2007

1

U.S. Property Underwriters Presentation

February 1, 2007

Page 2: U.S. Property Underwriters Presentation February 1, 2007

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CAUTIONARY STATEMENTCAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR THE PURPOSES OF THE “SAFE HARBOR” PROVISIONSFOR THE PURPOSES OF THE “SAFE HARBOR” PROVISIONS

OF THE PRIVATE SECURITIES LITIGATION REFORM ACT OF 1995OF THE PRIVATE SECURITIES LITIGATION REFORM ACT OF 1995 Forward Looking Statements - The following presentation includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, which are intended to be covered by the safe harbors created thereby. You can identify our forward-looking statements by words such as “anticipates,” “expects,” “intends,” “plans,” “projects,” “believes,” “estimates,” and similar expressions. Forward-looking statements relating to ConocoPhillips’ operations are based on management’s expectations, estimates and projections about ConocoPhillips and the petroleum industry in general on the date these presentations were given. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions that are difficult to predict. Further, certain forward-looking statements are based upon assumptions as to future events that may not prove to be accurate. Therefore, actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed or forecast in such forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause actual results or events to differ materially include, but are not limited to, crude oil and natural gas prices; refining and marketing margins; potential failure to achieve, and potential delays in achieving expected reserves or production levels from existing and future oil and gas development projects due to operating hazards, drilling risks, and the inherent uncertainties in interpreting engineering data relating to underground accumulations of oil and gas; unsuccessful exploratory drilling activities; lack of exploration success; potential disruption or unexpected technical difficulties in developing new products and manufacturing processes; potential failure of new products to achieve acceptance in the market; unexpected cost increases or technical difficulties in constructing or modifying company manufacturing or refining facilities; unexpected difficulties in manufacturing, transporting or refining synthetic crude oil; international monetary conditions and exchange controls; potential liability for remedial actions under existing or future environmental regulations; potential liability resulting from pending or future litigation; general domestic and international economic and political conditions, as well as changes in tax and other laws applicable to ConocoPhillips’ business. Other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements include other economic, business, competitive and/or regulatory factors affecting ConocoPhillips’ business generally as set forth in ConocoPhillips’ filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), including our Form 10-K for the year ending December 31, 2005, as updated by our subsequent periodic and current reports on Forms 10-Q and 8-K, respectively. ConocoPhillips is under no obligation (and expressly disclaims any such obligation) to update or alter its forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.Non-GAAP Financial Measures - This presentation includes certain non-GAAP financial measures, as indicated. Such non-GAAP measures are intended to supplement, not substitute for, comparable GAAP measures. Investors are urged to consider closely the comparable GAAP measure and the reconciliation to that measure provided in the Appendix or on our website at www.conocophillips.com. This presentation (Slide 32) contains an illustrative example calculating a measure, "EBITDA," that is not calculated in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). The example demonstrates a scenario for just one of the many that were evaluated in the evaluation process, and is an estimate of how costs, and resulting margins, could possibly perform at a given West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price. The example estimates the various costs (field operating, natural gas, diluent, transportation) at a $50 WTI example, and then estimates the resulting EBITDA margin that would result from this scenario. EBITDA consists of earnings before interest expense, income tax expense, and depreciation, depletion and amortization. EBITDA should not be considered as an alternative to any measure of operating results as promulgated under GAAP, nor should it be considered as an indicator of overall financial performance. We have included this non-GAAP financial measure because, in management's opinion, it most closely portrays a cash margin, which management believes will be an important measure in an analysis of cash flow consideration for the proposed joint ventures. Since the use of EBITDA is in the context of an illustrative example, a reconciliation to the most comparable GAAP measure (cash flow from operations) is not possible, as the GAAP components excluded from EBITDA were not estimated for purposes of such example. In this presentation, peer group “non-core earnings impacts” include publicly-disclosed gains and losses on asset dispositions, asset impairments, changes in litigation accruals, write-offs, uninsured losses, and restructuring charges, in each case, to the extent such items are in excess of >$249 million as well as all cumulative effect of accounting changes and discontinued operations, regardless of amount. Prohibited Terms - The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission permits oil and gas companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose only proved reserves that a company has demonstrated by actual production or conclusive formation tests to be economically and legally producible under existing economic and operating conditions. We may use certain terms in this presentation such as “oil/gas resources,” “Syncrude,” “probable resources,” “inventory,” and/or “Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE) proved reserves” that the SEC’s guidelines strictly prohibit us from including in filings with the SEC. U.S. investors are urged to consider closely the oil and gas disclosures in our Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2005 as updated by our subsequent quarterly reports on Form 10-Q.

Page 3: U.S. Property Underwriters Presentation February 1, 2007

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Current EnvironmentCurrent Environment

• High crude oil prices • Strong demand growth around the world• Limited excess production capacity• Instability and supply disruptions in major oil-producing countries• Higher industry costs

• Tightness in the global refining system

Page 4: U.S. Property Underwriters Presentation February 1, 2007

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Reserves held by Russian companies

Full IOC accessreserves

Access to Oil & Gas Reserves is a Access to Oil & Gas Reserves is a Greater Constraint Than GeologyGreater Constraint Than Geology

(BBOE)(BBOE)

NOC Reserves (no equity access)

NOC reserves(equity access)

Reserve figures are conventional Billion BOE, 2005 (2249 BBOE)Source: PFC Energy

157 / 7% 270 / 12%

360 / 16%

1,462 / 65%

IOC = international oil companyNOC = national oil company

Page 5: U.S. Property Underwriters Presentation February 1, 2007

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Rising Costs of Reserve Rising Costs of Reserve ReplacementReplacement

0

15

30

45

60

75

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Marginal cost is defined as the average of the highest cost (or bottom quartile) producers

Source: Goldman Sachs

• Higher F&D costs• Wider transportation & quality differentials• Higher government take

Dol

lars

per

Bar

rel

Page 6: U.S. Property Underwriters Presentation February 1, 2007

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Challenging EnvironmentChallenging Environment•Limited resource access

•Intense competition

•Industry cost inflation

•Increased government take

•Increased political risk

•Energy cost impact to consumers

We are responding to these challenges

Page 7: U.S. Property Underwriters Presentation February 1, 2007

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Corporate StrategyCorporate Strategy• Build on international scale and integration

• Grow E&P portfolio

• Grow R&M position

• Use Commercial expertise to create valuefrom integration and asset position

• Move to AA credit rating

• Manage cost and project execution

• Utilize strengths in people, technology, and financial resources

Creating Shareholder Value

Page 8: U.S. Property Underwriters Presentation February 1, 2007

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Financial StrategyFinancial Strategy

• Fund Growth Program

• Portfolio optimization

• Move to AA credit rating

• Debt reduction

• Equity improvement

• Target debt/capital ratioof 15-20%

• Annual dividend increases

• Share repurchases

Page 9: U.S. Property Underwriters Presentation February 1, 2007

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Investing in GrowthInvesting in Growth

West SakEkofisk Growth

SurmontSyncrude III

Alaska WNS Sat’sBritannia Sat’s

AlvheimStatfjord Late Life

Rivers FieldDeep Bossier

Corocoro IBohai Phase II

Yuzhno KhylchuyuLibya

Suban IIBayu-Undan

Kerisi / Hiu

HejreTommeliten Alpha

Eldfisk UpsideAlaska Sat’s

Woodford ShaleNorth America BD

Kashagan ISu Tu Vang

GumusutKetapang

Libya

Brass LNGQatargas 3 LNG

Plataforma-DeltanaNorth Belut

Suban III

Syncrude IV & V Surmont II & III

Clair IIThornbury

Canada Oil Sands

Kashagan II Kashagan Sat’sCorocoro II & III

West QurnaMalikai

Su Tu TrangKebabangan

Libya

SunriseCaldita

ANS GasMackenzie Delta

2006 - 2008 2008 - 2011 2011+

Page 10: U.S. Property Underwriters Presentation February 1, 2007

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Major R&M Growth ProjectsMajor R&M Growth Projects

• Wilhelmshaven Refinery

• Wood River and Borger Refineries

• Saudi Aramco Refinery

• UAE Refinery

Purchased 260 MBD German refinery in 2006, additional investments to increase advantaged crude processing

EnCana JV; investment to expand heavy oil processing to 550MBD with total capacity increasing to 600MBD by 2015

Proposed development of a 400MBD export refinery in Yanbu, targeted production date is 2011

Potential development of 500MBD refinery in Fujairah; JV with International Petroleum Investment Company of Abu Dhabi

Page 11: U.S. Property Underwriters Presentation February 1, 2007

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Strong North American PresenceStrong North American Presence

•#1 in gas production & a leading gas marketer

•#2 U.S Refiner

•Engaged in several LNG and re-gasification projects

•Strong positions in Alaskan North Slope gas and Mackenzie Delta gas

•Strong Canadian Oilsands position

Page 12: U.S. Property Underwriters Presentation February 1, 2007

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Burlington Resources AcquisitionBurlington Resources Acquisition•Created leading North American gas position• High-quality, long-lived, low-risk gas reserves • Significant unconventional resource plays• Enhanced production growth / N.A. gas supply

Near-term conventional / unconventional Long-term LNG and Arctic gas

•Enhanced business mix• Increases E&P, OECD, and North American gas•Significant free cash flow•Synergies of $500 MM•Access to technical capabilities

Page 13: U.S. Property Underwriters Presentation February 1, 2007

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0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

COPplusBR

ECA BP XOM DVN CVX COP BR RDS APC

Prod

uctio

n, M

MC

FD

Note: Production figures are based on YE 2005 Filings. COP volumes do not include fuel gas production. CVX pro forma for UCL.

North AmericaNorth America2005 Gas Production2005 Gas Production

13

Page 14: U.S. Property Underwriters Presentation February 1, 2007

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North American Heavy Oil PartnershipNorth American Heavy Oil Partnership

• Venture comprised of two 50/50 Partnerships:

Upstream Partnership

• EnCana’s Foster Creek and Christina Lake projects

Downstream Partnership

• ConocoPhillips’ Wood River and Borger refineries

• Partnerships of equivalent value

• Effective date: January 2, 2007

EnCana and ConocoPhillips are creating a long-term integrated North American heavy oil business

Borger Wood

River

ChristinaLakeFost

erCreek

Page 15: U.S. Property Underwriters Presentation February 1, 2007

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Canadian Oilsands – Largest NA ResourceCanadian Oilsands – Largest NA Resource

U.K.Norway

BrazilMexico

ChinaU.S.A.

NigeriaLibya

Russia/FSUUAE

KuwaitIraqIran

CanadaSaudi Arabia

Venezuela

Bituminous

Global Crude Oil Supply Resources (Bbbls)

4.59.711.214.817.129.435.339.1

72.3

97.899.0

115.0132.5

190.1

347.2

Source: International Energy Agency; Energy Information; OPEC; BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2005

262.7

Chevron

Total

Nexen

Husky

Imperial

Shell

Petro-Can

Suncor

CNRL

EnCana

COP

In Situ Mining

Canadian Oilsands Relative Land Positions

(Net Sections)

Notes: COP includes addition of 50% of ECA Foster Creek & Christina Lake acreage; and ECA is reduced by same amount;Includes only land associated with the Athabasca Oil Sands Deposit.Source: Alberta Energy and Utilities Board; and Company reports.

COP and ECA are both post-transaction

positions

Page 16: U.S. Property Underwriters Presentation February 1, 2007

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*Note: Based on information after all project completions; 2006 $ terms; EBITDA Margin defined as: Revenues – Opex – Gas cost/Feedstock cost – Transport.

Illustrative Integrated MarginIllustrative Integrated Margin

Downstream

Upstream

Downstream

Upstream

Downstream

Upstream

Varying Differential

Decreasing Diff. Increases

Upstream Margin

Participation in both Partnerships provides more certainty in overall margin

Increasing Diff. Increases

Downstream Margin

EBITDA margin ($/bbl)*

Page 17: U.S. Property Underwriters Presentation February 1, 2007

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$MM

Total Company Cash FlowTotal Company Cash Flow20062006

CFOA

21,516

Asset Sales545

Capex, Loans & Investments

16,253

Debt Reduction 5,059

Sources of Cash Uses of CashTotal

25,409

Cash & Other895

Sources of Cash includes the net of cash paid to Burlington Resources shareholders, cash acquired and debt issued associated with the Burlington Resources Acquisition. The Debt Reduction in Uses of Cash is from March 31, 2006.

Dividends & Share Repurchases 3,202

Net BR acquisition

1,1341/1/06 Cash

2,214

Page 18: U.S. Property Underwriters Presentation February 1, 2007

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Cash Use ComparisonCash Use Comparison

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

COP TOT CVX RDS XOM BP

Dividends Net Share Repurchase Debt Reduction Peer Average

Full Year 2006

* COP reflects actual results. Peer data estimated by annualizing 9 month actual results.

Page 19: U.S. Property Underwriters Presentation February 1, 2007

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84

73

54

3035

44

0

20

40

60

80

100

1/1/03 '03 '04 '05 1Q06 '06

27.1

32.2

12.5

22.6

17.8

15.0

0

10

20

30

40

1/1/03 '03 '04 '05 1Q06 '06

Equity * $B Balance Sheet Debt $B

19

26

34

43

30

24

0

10

20

30

40

50

1/1/03 '03 '04 '05 1Q06 '06

Debt-to-Capital Ratio %

* Includes minority interests

Debt RatioDebt Ratio

Page 20: U.S. Property Underwriters Presentation February 1, 2007

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SummarySummary

•Tight supply & demand balance for crude & refined products.

•Challenging Environment– Limited resource access– Intense competition– Industry cost inflation– Increased political risk and government take

•ConocoPhillips is aggressively investing in new energysupplies for the United States.