URL for .pptx presentations and book list:http://faculty.washington.edu/stevehar/CRI%20China's%20Environment.html

Energy

China’s Environment: Growth, Resources, Politics

Stevan HarrellCreative Retirement Institute

November 2013

Livingstandard

s

Energy Usage: 1750-2000

Coal

An Energy Dependent Society

Steam Steamlocomotive

Powerstations

Internal combustion engine

Airtravel

Populationgrowth

Globalmarkets

1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000

Telecommunications

WWIWWII

Satellite

Environmental issues

Micro-processor

InternetE

ner

gy

Usa

ge

?

Modifiers

Drivers

Cook and Sheath, 1997

LivingStandards

024839-2

Projected World Supplies

19001900 19201920 19401940 19601960 19801980 20002000 20202020 20402040 20602060 20802080 2100

2020

4040

6060

8080

100100100 BILLION

BARRELS

Billion Barrels

of Oil Equivalent

per Year (GBOE)

Billion Barrels

of Oil Equivalent

per Year (GBOE) Natural

GasNatural

Gas

HydroelectricHydroelectric

Crude OilCrude Oil

Solar, W ind Geothermal

Nuclear Electric

1993

CoalCoal

24929

Decreasing

Fossil F

uelsN

ew

Tech

nolo

gies

World Energy Demand

after Edwards,AAPG 8/97

Bioenergy

Energy Efficiency = 1/Energy Intensity

Source: Gail Tverberg, Our Finite World

Comparative Energy Intensity

Source: Gail Tverberg, Our Finite World

China’s Growing Share of World Energy Supply

Source: International Energy Agency World Key Energy Statistics 2013

Uses of Energy in China

Sources of Increased Demand, 2010-2025

• Transport: More and more private cars• Industry: Continued growth, leveling off• Commercial: Office space, and modern

skyscrapers• Residential: Upscaling,

urbanization

Sources of Decreasing Demand, Far Future

• Saturation in transport and residential• Industry moving to high-tech• Efficiency• Switch to renewables• Environmental Kuznets effects?

The Other Side of Affluence: The Environmental Kuznetz Curve

EnvironmentalQuality

EconomicWell-being

China Energy Sources

Fun fact to ponder: 14 of 27 pp of the EIA country report are about oil and gas, even though those together comprise 23% of China’s energy use.

Oil

Source: International Energy Agency World Key Energy Statistics 2013

Sources of Oil Imports

Fun facts to remember:• China still produces most of its own oil, and is exploring offshore for more• China passed the U.S. as the worlds’ largest net importer in May of this year at 6.12 Mbb/d; this has as

much to do with decreases in US imports as as it does with increases in China’s

Total: 5.076 M bbl/day Total: 4.747 M bbl/day

Natural Gas

Shale Gas

Source: ARI via Quartz

Source: via Quartz

Estimated reserves: US 665Tcf China 1115 Tcf US 19Tm3 China 31Tm3

2013 Production: 100Mm3=.0001Tm3

2015 Target: 6.5Bm3=.0065Tm3

Partner: Royal Dutch Shell

Obstacles: Technology (but Shell has it!) Water: Serious impingement on supplies

Infrastructure: Needs to be built Location: Natural Hazard Zone

2009

Electricity by Fuel Type

Fun fact to note: Wind power tripled from 2009 to 2011, but it didn’t stop the growth of coal power

CoalUPDATE

Coal Reserves and Consumption

China has about 25-30 years of proven coal reserves

Increases in Coal Consumption to 2011

Coal and Pollution

Coal and Pollution

10 a.m. today!

Peak Coal in China Soon?

Something to think about: Implications for Northwest Coal Exports• Coal trains and traffic delays• Spilled coal • Coal dust near tracks• Few jobs created• Facilities may sit empty

China’s Clean Energy Goals

http://switchboard.nrdc.org/blogs/mdavidson/clean_energy_standard_how_chin.html

Electricity Type 2012 Installed Capacity

2020 Goals

Total Electric 1104 GW 1800 GW

Wind 75 GW 200 GW

Offshore Wind 389 MW

Solar 7 GW 50 GW

Nuclear 34 GW 70 GW

Hydro 249 GW 420 GW

Therefore, fossil 739 GW 1090 GW

The biggest one: Sanxia

Why they built it National Pride

Hydro Power

Flood Control

Navigation

In January 2000, a senior Chinese official in Kunming expressed to me what I believe to be a deeply rooted conviction in China: “We are sensitive to considerations of the environment and the importance of the conservation of nature, but we must have power; coal is dirty, water clean and abundant,a rich and unused resource; we have no alternative.” In all other sectors of China’s economy Maoism has been displaced by market principles,but not in the hydro-sector.

Gavan McCormack, “Water Margins:competing paradigms in China, 2001

Problems: RelocationQuality of the land available

New ecotechnical adaptationLack of education for urban life

Dialect differencesInsufficient

Corruption and official indifference

funds

Problems: Sedimentation changes since 2003

Sedimentation changes since 2003

• More is building up behind the dam (max depth 56m)

• Downstream reaches have changed from deposition to erosion

• The Yangtze delta has gone from expansion to contraction

Landslides

2009

2003

Problems: Biodiversity Loss

There are still more dams….

Nu (Salween) River Lancang (Mekong) River

UPDATE

Lancang Projects

Nu River Projects

Lack of electricity in rural areasFrequent blackoutsIncreased reliance on coalPossible belligerence over oil

Problems Caused by Energy Shortages in China

What are the Environmental Costs of More Dams?

You be the judge:

Vs.Deprivation of Downstream peoplesLoss of BiodiversityLoss of Scenic BeautyAll the problems of relocationPossible disasters

Carbon Emissions

Energy Solutions and their Problems

• Energy efficiency– Gains to be made– Requires incentives– Requires institution

building– In the absence of

technological breakthrough, will not be enough

• Oil – Short supply– Greenhouse gas– Air Pollution– No good alternative for

transportation• Coal

– Greenhouse gas– Air pollution

• Hydroelectric– Supply limited– Agriculture land and habitat loss

• Nuclear– Dangerous– No domestic fuel source

Energy Sources

What Needs to be Done?

• Develop long-term sustainable energy strategy, including incentives for clean and renewable sources

• Increase funding for environmental regulation• Develop price structure for resources that will

promote conservation• Make environmental protection a primary element

of cadre evaluations• Allow citizen groups to form and lobby for

environmental reform