urbanization, sustainability and the utilization of energy ... · then it predicts chinas supply...

Cities, Vol. 22, No. 4, p. 287–302, 2005

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doi:10.1016/j.cities.2005.05.007

Urbanization, sustainability and theutilization of energy and mineralresources in ChinaLei Shen a,*, Shengkui Cheng a, Aaron James Gunson b,Hui Wan c

a Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research (IGSNRR), CAS, Beijing 100101,PR Chinab University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada V6T 1Z4c China University of Geosciences (Beijing), Beijing 100083, PR China

Available online 26 July 2005

This paper analyzes a model depicting the trend of Chinese urbanization and explores rela-tionships between urbanization and the supply and demand of major energy and mineralresources and between the gross domestic product (GDP) and the urbanization of China.Then it predicts China�s supply and demand trends from 2005 to 2050. It is predicted that until2010 China�s GDP and urbanization will grow at high speed, slowing slightly yet still growingstrongly on to 2050. It also argues that the supply of cement, steel, aluminum and coal and thedemand of timber, cement and steel have significant effects on urbanization. The paper con-cludes that China will inevitably face a long shortage of resources if future urbanization is fas-ter than predicted, i.e., China cannot meet the targets of the current urbanization strategywhile continuing current energy and resource consumption for its industrialization andmodernization.� 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Keywords: Urbanization, modernization, energy, natural resources, supply and demand, utilization

Introduction

Recent research has identified several factors drivingthe rapid urbanization and growth of cities andtowns of China, including continuing, althoughdiminishing, population growth; migration of ruralpeople, as regulations on rural and urban householdregistration change; rapid structural shift in employ-ment activities and the decline of farm employment;foreign trade and foreign investment, especially incoastal areas; restructuring of state-owned enter-prises and growth of private enterprises and activi-ties; and allocation of domestic funds in fixedassets for urban infrastructure, also concentrated incoastal areas (Pannell, 2002). The trajectory of Chi-

ndingauthor.Tel./fax:+86-10-64889005; e-mail: shenl@n.

287

nese urbanization was seen as more different thansimilar to the experiences of other economies inthe world. Among the many facets of Chineseurbanization are a more heterogeneous urban popu-lation, rural–urban migration, spatial reorganizationthrough urban land-use change, new housing devel-opment, globalization, suburbanization, polycentricrestructuring of urban form, and changes in the spa-tial/administrative systems of cities. Zhang and Zhao(2000) argues that the process of urbanization in asocialist economy could be negatively affected byits pattern of resource generation; Chang (1994)analyzed the recent process and consequences ofChina�s urbanization by weighing the short-term pol-icies and long-term strategies concerning nationaldevelopment and urban growth against the objectivematerial conditions and competing group interests inChinese society. Zhang and Zhao (2001) examined

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Urbanization, sustainability and the utilization of energy and mineral resources in China: L Shen et al.

the effects of state resource allocation (mainly capi-tal inputs), on Chinese urbanization and concludedthat the orientation of state resource inputs has seri-ously distorted the association between industriali-zation and urbanization.Some scholars have induced more serious theoret-

ical discussion of Chinese urbanization. Tang (1997)addressed the (non-spatial) causal mechanisms be-tween 1949 and 1977 and attempted to examinethe advantages of combining Kornai�s shortagemodel with Foucault�s concept of governmentality.He argued that spatial relations did play significantroles in revealing Chinese urbanization policiesand patterns. Ma (2002) argued that during the lasthalf century, Chinese cities underwent dramatictransformations due to socialist revolution and theeconomic reforms after 1978. Others pointed outthat the problem of urban data incomparability;Zhou and Ma (2003) developed two sets of adjustedand internally coherent time-series data to remedythis problem.The Chinese experience of urbanization had often

been perceived as a ‘‘unique case’’ because of its pe-culiar pattern of rapid industrialization without aparallel growth of the urban population. The regio-nal pattern of Chinese urbanization also varies, withcoastal regions advancing most rapidly owing tostronger linkages to the global economy. Pannell(2003) considered that a key feature of transitionwould be the growth of cities and towns of all sizes.Smith (2000) examined the spatial impacts of Chi-na�s modernization, focusing on two major factorsof production, namely the mobility of capital andof individuals, most obviously manifested in a mas-sive rural to urban population transfer during thepast two decades. Zhu (1998) divided China�s urban-ization process into �formal� and �informal� patternsand argued that the development of township andvillage enterprises, the creation of many small urbancenters and the arrival of many temporary residentshad mainly encouraged �informal urbanization�.Theoretical attempts to understand the dynamics

of urban change in China have moved beyond inter-nalism and deterministic growth; Lin (1998, 2002)analyzed the functional and spatial (re)positioningof cities in China as a system or systems in the broadercontext of regional growth and national developmentstrategies. He considered China�s urban develop-ment over the past five decades had been the directoutcome of national political strategizing, state artic-ulation and reconfiguration, and shifts in global cap-ital accumulation. Fan (1999) found that institutionalfactors had played key roles in shaping the city sys-tem, characterized by declining population concen-tration across cities and by tremendous vertical(population growth of cities) and horizontal (addi-tion of new cities) expansions. Wen (1992) gave the-oretical emphasis to the interplay betweenConfucian and Marxist cultural factors in determin-ing contemporary Chinese regional development

288

and, more specifically, how human migration andurbanization respond to strong state intervention.After such a brief literature review, it is found that

most studies have little discussion on the interplayand relationship between urbanization and the utili-zation of energy or natural resources. Very few arti-cles examine the impacts of urbanization on naturalresources in China. Jung et al. (2000) argued that thenew international economic order of the 21st cen-tury would emerge under the paradigm of sustain-able development, thus structural shifts may beredefined for both developed and developing coun-tries. He then considered several key driving forces,like the utilization of natural resources, climate,land, population growth trends and composition,the patterns of urbanization, economic, and indus-trial structures, technological diffusion, and institu-tional and legal mechanisms. Cocklin and Keen(2000) examined the impacts of urbanization onthe environment and concluded that there wereboth biophysical and social vulnerabilities associatedwith urbanization and these affect human security.Auty (2003) argued that natural resource rents arean important initial condition that help explainchoice of reform strategy among some transitioncountries.Many predictions on natural resource trends can

be seen in the literature, but little attention has beenpaid to their links with Chinese urbanization (see, forexample, Gibbs and Martin, 1958). Dorian et al.(1990) examined the Soviet, Chinese and Indian min-eral industries and forecasted conditions to 2010, andindustrial production, intensity of use, consumption,mine and plant expansion and trade policy by com-parisons of six metals. Crompton (1999) used Bayes-ian vector auto-regression models to forecast steelconsumption in South–East Asia to 2005. He sug-gested that steel consumption there would rise butvary in 2005 under the low and high growth scenariosindicating the sensitivity of steel consumption togross domestic product (GDP) growth.As urbanization continues into the future, it will

be inevitably accompanied by dramatic increases inthe consumption of water, land, energy, and min-eral resources. Domestic water demand due togrowth and living standards has partially led to ashortage of water in China (Zhang et al., 1992).Water crises occurred in over 400 Chinese citiesin 2000 (Zhu et al., 2001) and Northern Chinahas less than half the water per person thanwater-scarce Egypt. Varis and Vakkilainen (2001)identifies great water-related challenges in the com-ing decades, and Ren et al. (2003) revealed that ra-pid urbanization corresponded with rapiddegradation of water quality. The processes of agri-cultural restructuring, rural industrialization, andrapid urbanization in China since the 1990s have gi-ven rise to a new trend of massive farmland loss forthe benefits of market farming and non-agriculturaldevelopments.


This paper explores the impact of supply and de-mand for major natural resources, including strate-gic minerals and fossil fuels, on the futureurbanization of China. The research is based ontwo assumptions, that first, utilization of resourcesleads to national industrialization and moderniza-tion; thus there are some inherent relationships be-tween GDP indices and the supply and demand formajor resources, as urbanization is an inevitable re-sult of industrialization. Second, there is a compet-ing relationship between urbanization andresources. The paper analyzes the relationships be-tween supply and demand for resources and the pro-cess of urbanization in future China bymathematically modeling urbanization indices, thesupply and demand for resources, and economicdevelopment indices, such as GNP and GDP. Usinggray prediction models, it makes predictions on thefuture GDP of China by the methods of twice accu-mulation and twice adverse subtraction to China�sGDP data of 1952–1999. Thus, the model of the rela-tionship between China�s GDP and urbanizationcould predict future urbanization levels in China.Taking the output and consumption of China�s ma-jor energy and resources of 1952–1999 as the basedata, linear regression models of resource supplyand demand and urbanization are established. Theseresults are compared to those predictions of otherordinary methods made by domestic and overseasagencies, and the difference between theirs and oursis explored.There are two basic premises in this simulation.

One is that the economic development and urbani-zation over the past five decades can reflect the dom-inant development trend of the next 50 years.Another is that we can predict the urbanizationtrend of China based on the restriction of supplyand demand for resources. Although this empirical

Figure 1 The framework of relationships of resources withurbanization.

prediction does not take into account the impactsof science (technological progress, resources substi-tutes), the paper shows that China cannot meet thetargets of the current urbanization strategy whilecontinuing current energy and resource consump-tion for industrialization and modernization.

Analysis of China�s urbanization developmentmodel and evolution

Before our empirical examination, it is necessary toanalyze China�s urbanization development modeland evolution trend, and the trend of supply anddemand for major natural resources under urbani-zation and modernization. While it is well knownthat urbanization is affected by several factors,the driving functions of the exploitation of re-sources should not be neglected. These, especiallyenergy and minerals, are the material bases forthe national economy. Concurrently, the exploita-tion and utilization of resources are the most prim-itive driving force of regional development andurbanization. A supply of resources will inevitablypromote the process of industrialization and urban-ization, as verified by industrialization in Westerndeveloped economies. Industrialization and mod-ernization both encourages urbanization and uti-lizes massive amounts of resources (see Figure 1).Urbanization is spurred on by industrializationand also demands significant resources, in effectcompeting with industrialization and modernization(Marx, 1963; Marx and Engels, 1963). Huntington,expatiated deeply upon this topic, arguing thatmodernization includes the improvement of indus-trialization, urbanization, literacy, education,wealth, mass-mobility, and ever more complicatedand more diversified vocational structures Hunting-ton (1996).

industrialization, information age, modernization and

289

Figure 2 The evolution curve of historical urbanization of China (Data source: State statistics Bureau, 2001).

1This mass activity was instituted in early 1958 as a means ofgreatly accelerating economic growth and advancing socialistconstruction according to China�s specific economic conditions.


Generally, three global patterns of urbanizationcan be identified. The first is the developed or re-sources-oriented pattern, where urbanization incountries, such as Britain and the US, were fol-lowed by the exploitation of resources and industri-alization. Urbanization during the IndustrialRevolution was dominated by the exploitationand utilization of energy and resources, combinedwith science and technological progress that pro-moted urbanization. Industrialization broughtabout a series of synchronous effects, such as rapidrural migration to urban areas, the increasing num-ber of industrial and mining cities, urban popula-tions moving from agriculture into the secondaryindustry, and then on to the tertiary industry.Urbanization also resulted in the realization ofagricultural modernization, and eventually led toimprovement of urban residents� living conditionsand increasing productivity. The second urbaniza-tion pattern often appears in the third world. Inthis pattern, the sources that affect and restrictthe process of urbanization lie in one or severalkinds of extroverted factors and environments,called the exterior-industrialization developmentstrategy. Some scholars call it the reliant or exte-rior-stimulated pattern, driven by multinationalcapital. Korea, Brazil and other countries of thethird world fill this pattern. In the course of theirurbanization, export-oriented demands, foreigninvestment and credits, the new international labordivision order, economic intervention from indus-trialized countries and political demands have hada crucial function. The third urbanization patternis the mix-promoted pattern, including all of thedynamic urbanization factors stated above. It hasboth the stimulation of the endogenetic factors inthe first pattern and the functions of exterior fac-tors in the second pattern. The synthesis is the ba-sic drive for urbanization. Japan is the mostrepresentative country of this pattern.

290

The urbanization of China over the past 50 yearshas experienced six complicated development stages(Figure 2). At different stages, it has followed differ-ent aspects of the development patterns highlightedabove. Although the historic conditions variedwidely from stage to stage, the supply and demandof natural resources served as critical variables.The first stage was the development period at the

beginning of industrialization from 1950 to 1957.Pre-1949 China had seen little modern urbanizationor industrialization. With the priority of developingindustry and exploiting and utilizing energy and re-sources on a large-scale at the first stage, however,masses of peasants rushed into cities and towns towork in industrial and mining enterprises. Theurbanization rate went up from 10.6% in 1949 to15.39% in 1957. The second stage is the high-speedurbanization period of the Great Leap Forward1

from 1958 to 1960. The most evident characteristicof this period was that iron and steel dominated de-mand. People of all sectors of China�s economystepped into industry and took up steel-making pro-duction. Large groups of rural labors rushed into cit-ies and towns. Thus, the industrialization andurbanization of China realized super-normal devel-opment on the basis of separating from agriculture.It, however, brought about many unfavorable fac-tors that soon resulted in anti-urbanization (Shenand Andrews-Speed, 2001).The third stage was a de-urbanization period

resulting from industrial regulation from 1961 to1965. The Chinese government policies reducedthe urban population by more than 20 million peo-ple, by moving workers from industries in cities tothe countryside. As a result, the population of townswith organizational systems went up from 2000 to


3000, and the number of cities was reduced from 280to 171. This was an inevitable result of rectifying themistake of overly rapid urbanization that occurred inthe second stage. The fourth stage was a period ofstagnated urbanization and industrialization from1966 to 1977. The national economy was pushed tobreaking due to the Cultural Revolution and associ-ated misguided ideology.The fifth stage was the early high-speed urbaniza-

tion period following the rural system reform, from1978 to 1984. This rural reform greatly promotedrural economic development, thus indirectly enhanc-ing the non-agricultural economy and urbanization.The latter went from 17.44% in 1976 to 21.62% in1983. The sixth stage of urbanization is the stabledevelopment period from 1985 to the present. Since1984, economic reforms have steadily advanced andthe success has lead to further urbanization. Millionsof surplus agricultural labors have entered cities,greatly accelerating urbanization.The fifth and the sixth stages, following China�s re-

form and open door policy, were periods of rapidGDP growth and urbanization. From 1978 to 2000,the number of cities increased from 193 to 663, thenumber of towns with administrative systems in-creased from 2173 to 20,312, the total urban popula-

Table 2 Various urbanization forecasts of China from 2000 to 2050

Forecast 1 Total population (100 million persons)Urbanization rate (%)



Forecast of this paper Urbanization rate (%)

Source. Forecast 1: The modest forecast option in Study on China EnerPopulation Forecast by the United Nation. Forecast 3: The forecast of ChInformation Research.

Table 1 The urbanization forecast of China in 2005–2050 underthe modernization restriction

Year Forecasted GDP Forecasted urbanizationrates

(1000 billionRMB Yuan)

Annual growthin five years (%)

(%) Annual growthin five years (%)

2005 14.26 33.192010 21.73 8.79 34.68 0.882015 31.43 35.982020 43.64 6.78 37.15 0.642025 58.64 38.192030 76.72 5.52 39.14 0.492035 98.16 40.012040 123.25 4.66 40.82 0.402045 152.28 41.572050 185.52 4.03 42.26 0.33

tion jumped from 170 million to 456 million and thepercentage of the urban population went up from17.9% to 36.1%. Especially, since the beginning ofthe 1990s, China has been rapidly urbanizing.According to official figures (the State Statistics Bu-reau, 2001), the number of cities at prefecture levelhas increased from 188 to 269 between 1990 and2001, and major cities, with a non-agricultural popu-lation of over one million, have increased from 31 to41.Urbanization is considered as a major indicator of

modernization. However, China�s urbanization ratenow stands at a mere 41% in 2003, 5% lower thanthe world�s average. As a result, the 16th Congressof the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) put forwardthe aim of constructing well-balanced society, bycarrying out a rapid urbanization and industrializa-tion policy over the next 20 years. Chinese expertspredict that the number of people living in Chinesecities is expected to reach 1.12 billion by 2050,accounting for 70% of the country�s total population(see forecasts 2 and 3 in Table 2). More than 600 mil-lion Chinese people will shift from rural areas to ur-ban districts in the next 50 years. Obviously,urbanization will be a long-term and arduous taskfor China.

The development trend of China�s urbanizationunder restrictions of modernization

A report from the Research Group of SustainableDevelopment Strategy in the Chinese Academy ofSciences (1999) held the view that China�s urbaniza-tion will inevitably be confronted with six basic chal-lenges in the 21st century, including increasedpopulation pressure, intense demand for energyand resources and rapid urbanization. Using thegray prediction model (see more in Appendix D),this paper first makes a quantitative prediction forChina�s GDP over the next 50 years (see AppendixA). Using the twice-accumulation method with Chi-na�s GDP data (y) of 1952–1999 (x = 1,2,3,. . ., 48)and gain accumulated data, we make a time-seriessimulation amalgamation automatically with the

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

13 14.2 14.9 15.3 15.4 15.334.92 46.06 55.03 60.78 64.94 68.63

12.78 13.73 14.54 14.96 15.05 14.7835.52 47.63 56.40 62.17 66.45 71.04

12.69 13.77 14.72 15.25 15.44 15.2235.78 47.49 55.71 60.98 64.77 68.99

34.68 37.15 39.14 40.82 42.26

gy Strategy (2000–2050). Forecast 2: The second option of China�sina�s Population Development by the Center of China Population

291


product of one variable to the nth power. Aftermany comparisons, we adopt n = 5 and attain theequation as follows:

y ¼ 0.19v5 � 18.031v4 þ 636.98v3 � 8975v2 þ 55180v

� 83654 ðv ¼ 1; 2; 3; . . . ; 99Þ. ð1ÞFrom the above, we acquire simulation data to 2000–2050, then we can get prediction results (Table 1 andAppendix A) of GDP by twice adverse accumulativesubtraction.With the data of China�s GDP and urbanization

rates in 1952–1999, we are also able to establish alinear regression model

y ¼ 3.5372 lnðvÞ � 8.7894. ð2ÞWith Eq. (2), we can predict China�s urbanization le-vel in 2005–2050 under the GDP restriction. Themodel above indicates that China�s GDP relates clo-sely to urbanization levels, and its correlation coeffi-cient (R) is 0.9214 (Figure 3). In 2005–2010 China�sGDP will grow at high speed, and the annual growthof GDP will be up to 8.79% and of urbanization to0.88% annually, with growth slowing slightly on to2050, at above 4% GDP growth per annum andabove 0.33% urbanization growth per annum.The urbanization forecast above is a conservative

prediction resulting from the restriction of bothmodernization and static supply and demand of re-sources. Therefore, this predicted urbanization levelof future China�s is far lower than most other predic-tions in China or abroad. Contrasted with the secondoption of China�s Population Forecast by the UnitedNation (see the forecast 2 in Table 2), there is a 13%discrepancy in 2010, 19% in 2020, and 29% in 2050.All these suggest that future urbanization in Chinawill confront the restriction of supply and demandfor major energy and resources badly and that the

Figure 3 The relationship between urbanization and econom2001).

292

country will have a long way to go towards achievingits strategic urban objectives.

The trend of supply and demand for majorenergy and resources under restrictions ofurbanization and modernization

There is a tight relationship between exploitationand utilization of energy and resources and urbani-zation and modernization in China. On the one side,urbanization and modernization depend intensivelyon supply and demand of major energy and re-sources. The exploitation and utilization of energyand resources, on the other side, are based on eco-nomic growth and urbanization improvement. Mod-ernization accelerates the speed of energy andresource consumption and promotes exploitationand utilization of the resources. Thus, it can be seenthat China will inevitably face a serious restriction inthe supply of resources during the process of high-speed urbanization and modernization. Under thiscondition of restriction, however, we need quantita-tive analysis and study to find the supply and de-mand for major resources and any shortages.As the supply and demand for resources is af-

fected by multiple factors, it is hard to get an accu-rate prediction. Many scholars manage to takevarious forecasts, such as methods of per-capita re-sources occupation (Pu, 1998), flexibility coefficients(Jia, 1992), trend analysis, regression analysis (Shenand Wei, 1998), probability statistics (Jia, 1992), in-put-output analysis and systematic dynamics simula-tion (Dong, 1999); unfortunately, their resultsdiffered significantly. In this paper, we take outputsand consumption data of major energy and re-sources in 1952–1999 as primitive data, and drawtheir scatter-dots distribution, respectively, with his-

ic growth of China (Data source: State statistics Bureau,

weenurbanizationandsupply

anddemandofmajorresourcesin

China

urbanization

Correlative

coefficient

Relationship

betw

eenresourcesdemandand

urbanization

Correlative

coefficient

ns)

0.90

92y=

128943

ln(v)�

327837

(coal

consumption,10

0million

tons)

0.70

87

iontons)

0.89

82y=

19833ln(v)�

52292(oilconsumption,10

0million

tons)

0.80

24

100millioncubic

meters)

0.86

30y=

9.89

57v�

109.91

(naturalga

sconsumption,10

0millioncubic

meters)

0.89

69

illiontons)

0.89

15y=

278.16e0

.1643v(ironore

consumption,1

00milliontons)

0.88

44ntons)

0.91

64y=

81.265e0

.163v(raw

ironconsumption,10

0milliontons)

0.88

34ns)

0.91

56y=

47.965e0

.1809v(steel

consumption,10

0milliontons)

0.90

21,000

ton)

0.83

76y=

152.94

ln(v)�

407.87

(copper

consumption,10

,000

tons)

0.87

60

)0.91

95y=

7e�06v5.0864(aluminum

consumption,10

,000

ton)

0.86

00ratingelectricity,

100millionkWh)

0.9015

y=

9.89

57v�

109.91

(hyd

ro-power

electricity

consumption,10

0millionkWh)

0.85

59

0.83

49y=

5305.6ln(v)�

11592(tim

ber

consumption,10

,000

m3)

0.90

77)

0.9300

y=

33.317e0

.2422v(cem

entconsumption,10,000

ton)

0.9048

assicfertilizer

output,10

,000

ton)

0.86

35


torical urbanization data, and then calculate trendsusing a simulation-amalgamation equation (see Ta-ble 3, Appendices B and C). We draw the conclusionthat China�s supply and demand for major energyand resources is directly related to its urbanizationlevel, and most correlation coefficients are above0.7. That is, with the increase of urbanization, thesupply and demand for major energy and resourcesincreases accordingly. On supply side, it is cement,steel, aluminum and coal that have higher correla-tion coefficients; on demand side, it is timber, ce-ment and steel that have smaller correlationcoefficients.According to the mathematical relationships be-

tween urbanization and the supply and demand formajor energy and resources, and the predictedGDP, we are able to calculate the supply and de-mand for major resources in 2005–2050 (Tables 4and 5).According to forecast data from Tables 4 and 5, by

2050, even at a low urbanization rate, domestic re-source supplies can meet only coal demand. Oil con-sumption can be largely balanced at a very low level.However, domestic supplies cannot meet the de-mand for natural gas and other resources such asiron ore, raw iron, steel, copper and aluminum (seeTable 6).With China�s urbanization increasing by about

1.5% from 2005 to 2010, the shortfall between sup-ply and demand for natural gas increases 1.76%,iron ore increases 6.68%, iron increases 7.79%,and aluminum increases by 0.65%. The shortfallfor copper actually decreases by 0.65%. By 2020and on, the shortfall between supply and demandfor coal, oil, copper, aluminum, etc. will stay com-paratively stable. In contrast, the shortfall for natu-ral gas, iron ore, iron and steel will continue toincrease, especially for iron ore, which will keepabove 50% throughout the time period examined(Figure 4).

Tab

le3

Themathem

aticalpatternsoftherelationshipsbet

Relationship

betw

eenresourcessupply

and

Coal

y=

0.00

11x2.7816(coal

output,10

0millionto

Oil

y=

18910ln(v)�

48603(oiloutput,10

0mill

Naturalga

sy=

238.16

ln(v)�

618.3(naturalga

soutput,

Ironore

y=

1281.1v�

1570

5(ironore

output,10

0m

Raw

iron

y=

0.03

52v3.7053(raw

ironoutput,10

0millio

Steel

y=

0.01

93v3.8924(steel

output,10

0millionto

Copper

y=

114.16

ln(v)�

306.65

(copper

output,10

Aluminum

y=

1e�5v4.8454(aluminum

output,10

,000

ton

Hyd

ro-power

y=

2304.7ln(v)�

6246.8

(hyd

ro-power

gene

Tim

ber

y=

89.959v1.2814(tim

ber

output,10

,000

m3)

Cem

ent

y=

0.00

04v5.4409(cem

entoutput,10,000

ton

Fertilizer

y=

1e�5v5.7784(nitrogen,phosphatean

dpot

The actual discrepancy between supply anddemand for major energy and resources inChina

The analysis above indicates the shortage of majorenergy and resources under the precondition ofrestrictions of both GDP and low-speed urbaniza-tion. The more austere reality is that urbanizationin future China will develop faster, and the GDPand social development will realize the strategicgoals of comprehensively constructing a society ofwell-being, which was put forward at the 16th con-gress of the CCP. The shortfall of resources willincrease.Statistical data from 133 countries collected by the

Word Bank show that urbanization levels will in-crease 40–60% when the GDP per capita growsfrom US $700 to US $1000–1500. Some experts ar-

293

Table 6 Shortage of resources supply and demand in China in 2005–2050 under the restrictions of both modernization and urbanization

Unit 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Urbanization rate (%) 33.19 34.68 37.15 39.14 40.82 42.26Coal (100 million tons) +6.34 +8.21 +11.77 +24.64 +18.24 +21.17Oil (100 million tons) +0.04 +0.05 +0.04 +0.03 +0.02 +0.02Natural gas (100 million cubic meters) �2.74 �7.02 �15.06 �22.35 �28.95 �34.97Iron ore (100 million tons) �3.81 �5.43 �9.25 �13.83 �19.08 �25.01Raw iron (100 million tons) �0.30 �0.53 �1.15 �1.99 �3.02 �4.25Steel (100 million tons) �0.33 �0.63 �1.48 �2.65 �4.13 �5.91Copper (10,000 tons) �34.59 �36.30 �38.96 �41.00 �42.62 �43.97Aluminum (10,000 tons) �147.18 �187.11 �272.10 �361.69 �454.21 �548.61

Table 5 Demand forecasts of resources in China in 2005–2050 under the restrictions of both modernization and urbanization

Year Urbanizationrate (%)

Coal (100milliontons)

Oil (100milliontons)

Natural gas(100 millioncubic meters)

Iron ore(100 milliontons)

Raw iron(100 milliontons)

Steel (100million tons)

Copper(10,000 ton)

Aluminum(10,000 ton)

2005 33.19 12.38 1.72 218.53 6.49 1.82 1.94 127.76 381.542010 34.68 12.94 1.80 233.27 8.30 2.32 2.54 134.48 477.052020 37.15 13.83 1.94 257.67 12.44 3.46 3.97 144.98 676.512030 39.14 14.50 2.04 277.42 17.27 4.79 5.70 152.99 882.832040 40.82 15.04 2.13 294.02 22.74 6.30 7.72 159.40 1092.822050 42.26 15.49 2.20 308.33 28.85 7.98 10.03 164.73 1304.61

Table 4 Supply forecasts of resources in China in 2005–2050 under the restrictions of both modernization and urbanization

Year Urbanizationrate (%)

Coal (100milliontons)

Oil (100milliontons)

Natural gas(100 millioncubic meters)

Iron ore(100 milliontons)

Raw iron(100 milliontons)

Steel (100million tons)

Copper(10,000 ton)

Aluminum(10,000 ton)

2005 33.19 18.72 1.76 215.79 2.68 1.52 1.61 93.17 234.362010 34.68 21.15 1.85 226.25 2.87 1.79 1.91 98.18 289.942020 37.15 25.60 1.98 242.61 3.19 2.31 2.49 106.02 404.412030 39.14 29.61 2.07 255.07 3.44 2.80 3.05 111.99 521.142040 40.82 33.28 2.15 265.07 3.66 3.28 3.59 116.78 638.612050 42.26 36.66 2.22 273.36 3.84 3.73 4.12 120.76 756.00


gue that the per capita GDP of China will rise fromUS $800 in 1997 to US $1200 or even higher by 2010(the Research Group of Sustainable DevelopmentStrategy, 1999). Both urbanization and economic in-dexes indicate that China�s urbanization isaccelerating.According to the Three-Step Walking develop-

ment strategy of China,2 the GDP growth of Chinawill be maintained at 4–7% or even higher, andthe next 20 years will inevitably be a period in whichresources consumption and urbanization growsquickly. Assuming the Chinese population will be1.3 billion in 2010, 1.35 billion in 2020, 1.4 billion

2The Third Plenary Session of the Eleventh CCP NationalCongress held in 1978 launched China�s reform and opening-upto the outside world and initiated a ‘‘three-step strategy’’ to developChinese economy at the very beginning of reform in accordancewith Chinese own characteristics at that time. This three-stepcovers the years of 1978–2000, 2001–2020, and 2021–2050,respectively.

294

in 2040, and 1.5 billion in 2050, and the Gross Na-tional Product (GNP) per capita will be US $1500in 2010, US $2500 in 2020, US $3680 in 2030, US$5400 in 2040, and US $8000 in 2050, China�s urban-ization level will reach at 47% in 2010, 56% in 2020,61% in 2030, 65% in 2040, and 70% in 2050. The ur-ban population will reach 611 million in 2010, 756million in 2020, 854 million in 2030, 943 million in2040, and 1050 million in 2050 (Li, 2002).With increasing GDP per capita, urbanization and

population, the supply and demand for major energyand resources in China should keep apace. That is tosay, the consumption of energy and resources will in-crease at high speed in terms of both per capita out-puts and gross outputs. It is predicted that the percapita consumption speeds of major energy and re-sources are as follows: 3–4% for coal, 2–3% foroil, about 3% for natural gas, 3–4% for iron, 3–5%for copper, 3.5–4.5% for aluminium, and 5–8% forcement. We can predict that by 2010, the surplusof coal will be 1158 million tons (mt); however, the

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Rat

io o

f D

eman

d V

ersu

s Su

pply

(%

)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Urb

aniz

atio

n ra

te (

%)

Urbanization rate

Coal

Natural gasOil

Copper

SteelAluminium

Iron ore

Raw iron

Figure 4 The change curve of resources shortage rates in China under the restrictions of both modernization andurbanization.


shortfall of oil will be 50mt, of natural gas will be56,000 million cubic meter (mcm), of iron will be175mt, of steel will be 70mt, of copper will be 1.02mt, and of aluminium will be 0.15 mt. By 2020, coal,coppers and aluminium rates will remain stable. Theshortage between supply and demand of oil will be193 mt, of natural gas will be 10,387 mcm, of ironwill be 240 mt and of steel will be 95 mt. From2020 on the intensity of consumption of resourcesin China will decline due to slowing of populationand economic growth, improving science and tech-nological progress, and resource substitution. Butthe resource shortfall will continue and will threatenChina�s future resource security (Shen and Cheng,2002).

Conclusion and the way forward

To sum up, this paper finds that most studies haveput little emphasis on the connection betweenurbanization and resource utilization. We argue thatnatural resources, especially energy and minerals re-sources, are the key material bases for urbanizationand modernization, and their exploitation and utili-zation are closely related to modernization, industri-alization and urbanization. The urbanization processis affected by many factors, including increasingpopulation, economic development, social advance-ment and exploitation and utilization of major en-ergy and resources. The main urbanization trendsin different countries are the same by and large,while following different development patterns.Urbanization and modernization of China are evi-

dently influenced by its own history, politics and cul-ture. China�s GDP has increased rapidly, and itssociety has advanced and its urbanization has accel-erated since 1978. As a result, China has exploitedand consumed resources on a large scale.Entering into the 21st century, China will inevita-

bly face population pressures and natural resourceshortages, especially resources which relate directlyto the development of the national economy andurbanization. The gray prediction system forecastsin this paper indicate that GDP relates highly tourbanization level in China; GDP and urbanizationrates will, respectively, reach 8.79% and 0.88% orhigher by 2010, and afterward will increase steadily,but more slowly, on to 2050. The high-speed ofurbanization and modernization will inevitably leadto the shortage of resources in China. Amongthem, the supplies of cement, steel, aluminum andcoal have the most important effect. Even thoughthe only coal demands can be sustained domesti-cally, and the oil demand can almost be sustained,other resources such as iron ore, steel, copper andaluminum, will be in short supply. If taking thereality of faster urbanization into account, thelong-term resource supply shortage will still be aus-tere, though science and technological progress andresource replacement will lower resource consump-tion somewhat (Crowson, 1997, 1999). Securingthese supplies will directly touch the process ofmodernization, urbanization and construction of aprosperous society; otherwise, China would be hardpressed to reach its urbanization targets in the fore-seeable future.

295


To cope with these ever-increasingly pressure, theChinese government has carried out its �two-legs�policy. This implies that China actively searchesfor foreign sources of resources and energy andstruggles to raise its efficiencies. However, it wouldbe impossible for China to import large amountsof resources and energy from abroad, given that Chi-na has insufficient capital strength. Even if this wasthe case, the global resource market would find itdifficult to provide such gigantic resource require-ments. The only way forward for China is to changeits resource and environment policies so as to sustainits future urbanization and modernization.This calls for the sustainable resource utilization.

A general theory of sustainability has yet to befound, although it is evident that there is a connec-tion between economic, social and ecological prob-lems, and a recognition of the pressure put on thenatural resources by an ever-increasing population,which intensifies the decline of natural resourcesand environmental degradation in China negatively.It is therefore suggested that more priority should beassigned to environmental protection and resourceconservation in China.Arguably, it is within the economic dimension that

tremendous progress in urban China has been madeso far, and the big challenge is to identify the coststhat we have be incurred to compensate for environ-mental and resource loses. The current pressure onresources, such as land, food and water for the grow-ing population, necessitates introspection of the Chi-nese past practices. The real costs of environmentaldegradation in China are mounting, including airpollution, groundwater depletion, soil salinizationand compaction, land subsidence, nitrate contamina-tion in groundwater and agro-products, farmers�sickness, and loss of insect and pest predators.Subsequently, further sustainable urbanizationshould be dependent on dealing with the tradeoffbetween economic sustainability and environmentalsustainability.The debate between environmental sustainability

and economic development has played a central rolein pursuing sustainable development since 1992.Environmental sustainability tends to favor the fullconservation of natural resources, particularly inkeeping the ecological balances of the physicalworld intact. There is hope of sustainability whenmore politicians and industry leaders start takingthe environment seriously, if they do it in time. Real-izing this importance, the Chinese central govern-ment placed its focus on a new developmentstrategy in 2004. It aimed to realize environmentalsustainability of technology, taking into accountthe role of industrial ecology. A higher compatibilityof a specific technology with the industrial system, asstudied in industrial ecology, can result in lower re-source extraction and reduced waste emission, indi-rectly contributing to a better environmentalsustainability. Quantifiable results in terms of re-

296

duced wastes and emissions and improved resourceand energy efficiencies have been documented bymany authors (Kjaerheim, 2005). It is noted thatmany countries, as a strategy for improving environ-mental performance, have also adopted the cleanerproduction (CP) concept. CP has proven itself asan effective way of obtaining improved resource uti-lization, reduced energy consumption and loweremission levels. It also motivates positive preventiveaction and promotes a holistic view of resources,production, economy and the environment.Sustainability in the context of urbanization can

be defined as encapsulating a number of differentconnotations. First, it means urban sustainabledevelopment. This is achieved through meeting therequirement of providing sufficient energy and re-sources with greater efficiency. Second, it refers toan ecologically-acceptable urbanization. Urbanresidents must develop a self-image as �trustees� oftheir resources, which they are supposed to use, pre-serve and enlarge and then pass on to their descen-dants. Third, sustainability also means a thrivingeconomic and social order with production struc-tures and relationships that ensure a fair distributionof income, power and opportunities, thus providingthe basis for social peace. Finally, sustainability im-plies a sense of long-term carrying capacity of cities,where there is no negative impact on the environ-ment (Ehlers, 1997).Towards the above sustainability of urbanization,

several practical actions should be taken as soon aspossible. First, China should change its traditionalview of point on the development and insist on all-round coordinated and sustainable development.With regard to institutional transition, it shouldchange its attitude solely from pursuing GDP growthwhile ignoring energy and resource losses. Second,economic sustainability should be achieved by wayof scientific and technological progress. Third, Chinamust choose a new and rational development pathfor industrialization. This requires encouraging thedevelopment of value-added, low pollution, high-tech industries. Finally, it should give prominenceto the conservation of energy and resources and leadeconomic development and urbanization in the wayof resource conservation and efficiency.

Acknowledgements

This paper is completed under the auspices of re-search projects by both the Knowledge InnovationEngineering and Director Fund at the ChineseAcademy of Sciences (Project Nos. KZCX2-SW-318-01-01 and CDW797), and by the Open Fund(Project No. 2005-03-2005T-03) under the Ministryof Land and Mineral Resources of China) Mr. Shenwould like to thank several anonymous reviewersand readers in China and abroad who gave lots ofhelpful comments and suggestions.


Appendix A. The forecast process and data table of GDP in China, using the twice-accumulativeaddition and adverse twice-accumulative subtraction of the grey forecasting method

Year
Series GDP (100 million
RMB Yuan)

First accumulative

addition

Second accumulative

addition

Accumulative

forecast

First accumulative

subtraction

Second accumulative

subtraction

Residual

subtraction

1952
1 679.0 679.00 679.00 �36829.86 �36829.86 �36829.86 37508.86
1953
2 824.0 1503.00 2182.00 �4380.58 32449.29 69279.15 �68455.15
1954
3 859.0 2362.00 4544.00 16895.12 21275.70 �11173.59 12032.59
1955
4 910.0 3272.00 7816.00 29811.34 12916.23 �8359.47 9269.47
1956
5 1028.0 4300.00 12116.00 36817.88 7006.53 �5909.69 6937.69
1957
6 1068.0 5368.00 17484.00 40022.94 3205.07 �3801.46 4869.46
1958
7 1307.0 6675.00 24159.00 41216.04 1193.10 �2011.97 3318.97
1959
8 1439.0 8114.00 32273.00 41890.70 674.67 �518.43 1957.43
1960
9 1457.0 9571.00 41844.00 43267.34 1376.64 701.97 755.03
1961
10 1220.0 10791.00 52635.00 46316.00 3048.66 1672.03 �452.03
1962
11 1149.3 11940.30 64575.30 51779.20 5463.20 2414.54 �1265.24
1963
12 1233.3 13173.60 77748.90 60194.70 8415.50 2952.31 �1719.01
1964
13 1454.0 14627.60 92376.50 71918.34 11723.64 3308.13 �1854.13
1965
14 1716.1 16343.70 108720.20 87146.78 15228.45 3504.81 �1788.71
1966
15 1868.0 18211.70 126931.90 105940.38 18793.59 3565.15 �1697.15
1967
16 1773.9 19985.60 146917.50 128245.90 22305.53 3511.94 �1738.04
1968
17 1723.1 21708.70 168626.20 153919.42 25673.52 3367.99 �1644.89
1969
18 1937.9 23646.60 192272.80 182749.02 28829.60 3156.09 �1218.19
1970
19 2252.7 25899.30 218172.10 214477.68 31728.66 2899.05 �646.35
1971
20 2426.4 28325.70 246497.80 248826.00 34348.32 2619.67 �193.27
1972
21 2518.1 30843.80 277341.60 285515.06 36689.06 2340.74 177.36
1973
22 2720.9 33564.70 310906.30 324289.18 38774.13 2085.07 635.83
1974
23 2789.9 36354.60 347260.90 364938.76 40649.58 1875.45 914.45
1975
24 2997.3 39351.90 386612.80 407323.02 42384.26 1734.69 1262.61
1976
25 2943.7 42295.60 428908.40 451392.88 44069.85 1685.59 1258.11
1977
26 3201.9 45497.50 474405.90 497213.66 45820.79 1750.94 1450.96
1978
27 3624.1 49121.60 523527.50 544988.00 47774.33 1953.55 1670.55
1979
28 4038.2 53159.80 576687.30 595078.54 50090.55 2316.21 1721.99
1980
29 4517.8 57677.60 634364.90 648030.82 52952.28 2861.73 1656.07
1981
30 4862.4 62540.00 696904.90 704596.00 56565.18 3612.91 1249.49
1982
31 5294.7 67834.70 764739.60 765753.72 61157.72 4592.54 702.16
1983
32 5934.5 73769.20 838508.80 832734.86 66981.15 5823.43 111.07
1984
33 7171.0 80940.20 919449.00 907044.38 74309.52 7328.37 �157.37
1985
34 8964.4 89904.60 1009353.60 990484.06 83439.69 9130.17 �165.77
1986
35 10202.2 100106.80 1109460.40 1085175.38 94691.31 11251.63 �1049.43
1987
36 11962.5 112069.30 1221529.70 1193582.22 108406.85 13715.54 �1753.04
1988
37 14928.3 126997.60 1348527.30 1318533.78 124951.55 16544.71 �1616.41
1989
38 16909.2 143906.80 1492434.10 1463247.26 144713.49 19761.93 �2852.73
1990
39 18547.9 162454.70 1654888.80 1631350.76 168103.50 23390.01 �4842.11
1991
40 21617.8 184072.50 1838961.30 1826906.00 195555.24 27451.75 �5833.95
1992
41 26638.1 210710.60 2049671.90 2054431.18 227525.18 31969.94 �5331.84
1993
42 34634.4 245345.00 2295016.90 2318923.74 264492.57 36967.39 �2332.99
1994
43 46759.4 292104.40 2587121.30 2625883.20 306959.46 42466.89 4292.51
1995
44 58478.1 350582.50 2937703.80 2981333.90 355450.70 48491.25 9986.85
1996
45 67884.6 418467.10 3356170.90 3391847.88 410513.97 55063.27 12821.33
1997
46 74462.6 492929.70 3849100.60 3864567.58 472719.71 62205.74 12256.86
1998
47 78345.2 571274.90 4420375.50 4407228.76 542661.17 69941.47 8403.73
1999
48 81910.9 653185.80 5073561.30 5028183.18 620954.43 78293.25 3617.65
2000
49 5736421.50 708238.31 87283.89
2005
54 10949136.54 1303473.32 142617.93
2010
59 20099787.04 2232412.74 217343.37
2015
64 35167715.98 3600563.55 314310.21
2020
69 58702551.38 5527682.75 436368.45
2030
79 144650378.52 11609104.38 767159.13
2040
89 312453492.46 21719733.60 1232515.41
2050
99 610306677.20 37330626.42 1855237.29
Appendix B. The graphic patterns of the rela-tionships between urbanization and output ofmajor energy and resources in China

See Figure B.1.

Appendix C. The graphic patterns of the rela-tionships between urbanization and consumptionof major energy and resources in China

See Figure C.1.

297

Relationship between the urbanization and outputsof coal and oil over last 50 years

Relationship between the urbanization and outputs ofnatural gas and hydro-power over last 50 years

Urbanization rate

Nat

ural

gas

out

put (

100

mcm

)

Hyd

ro-p

ower

Relationship between the urbanization and outputs of iron oreand raw iron over last 50 years

Urbanization rate

Iron

ore

out

put

10,0

00 to

ns

Raw

iro

n ou

tput

10,0

00 to

ns

Relationship between the urbanization and outputof steel over last 50 years

Urbanization rate

Stee

l out

put

10,0

00 to

ns

Relationship between the urbanization and outputof finished steel over last 50 years

Urbanization rate

Fin

ishe

d st

eel

10,0

00 to

ns

Relationship between the urbanization and outputof cement over last 50 years

Cem

ent o

utpu

t10

,000

tons

Figure B.1.


Appendix D. Brief introduction to original greyforecasting model

Grey theory, developed originally by Deng (1982), isa truly multidisciplinary and generic theory thatdeals with systems that are characterized by poor,incomplete or uncertain information and/or forwhich information is lacking. The fields covered bygrey theory include systems analysis, data process-ing, modelling, prediction, decision making and con-trol. The grey forecasting models have beenextensively used in many applications (Sun, 1991;Morita, 1996; Huang and Wang, 1997; Hsu andWen, 1998; Hsu and Chen, 1999; Hao and Wang,2000; Liu and Deng, 2000; Xing, 2001; Yue andWang, 2000). The GM(1,1) is one of the most fre-quently used grey forecasting model. This model is

298

a time series forecasting model, encompassing agroup of differential equations adapted for parame-ter variance, rather than a first order differentialequation. Its difference equations have structuresthat vary with time rather than being general differ-ence equations. Although it is not necessary to em-ploy all the data from the original series toconstruct the GM(1,1), the potency of the seriesmust be more than four. In addition, the data mustbe taken at equal intervals and in consecutive orderwithout bypassing any data. The GM(1,1) modelconstructing process is described below:Denote the original data sequence by

vð0Þ ¼ vð0Þð1Þ; vð0Þð2Þ; vð0Þ ð3Þ; . . . ; vð0ÞðnÞ� �

; ðD:1Þ

where n is the number of years observed.

Relationship between the urbanization andoutput of sulphide iron ore last 50 years

Urbanization rate

Sulp

hide

iron

out

put

10,0

00 to

ns

Relationship between the urbanization andoutputs of phosphate ore over last 50 years

Urbanization rate

Phos

phat

e or

e10

,000

tons

Relationship between the urbanization and outputsof nitrgon, phosphate and potassic fertilizers over

last 50 years

Urbanization rate

Fert

ilize

rs o

utpu

t10

,000

tons

Relationship between the urbanization andoutput of timber over last 50 years

Urbanization rate

Tim

ber

outp

ut10

,000

cm

Relationship between the urbanization and outputof copper over last 50 years

Urbanization rate

Cop

per

outp

ut10

,000

tons

Relationship between the urbanization andoutput of aluminum over last 50 years

Urbanization rate

Alu

min

um o

utpu

t (10

,000

tons

)

Figure B.1 (continued)


The accumulated generation operation (AGO)formation of v(0) is defined as

vð1Þ ¼ vð1Þð1Þ; vð1Þð2Þ; vð1Þð3Þ; . . . ; vð1ÞðnÞ� �

; ðD:2Þwhere

vð1Þð1Þ ¼ vð0Þð1Þ and vð1ÞðkÞ ¼Xkm¼1

xð0ÞðmÞ;

k ¼ 2; 3; . . . ; n. ðD:3Þ

The GM(1,1) model can be constructed by establish-ing a first order differential equation for v(1)(k) as

dvð1ÞðkÞ=dk þ avð1ÞðkÞ ¼ b. ðD:4ÞTherefore, the solution of Eq. (D.4) can be obtainedby using the least square method. That is

vð1ÞðkÞ ¼ vð0Þð1Þ � ba

!e�aðk�1Þ þ b

a; ðD:5Þ

299

Relationship between the urbanization andconsumptions of coal and oil over last 50

years

Urbanization rate

Co

al c

on

sum

pti

on

10

,00

0 t

on

s

Oil

con

sum

pti

on

10

,00

0 t

on

s

Relationship between the urbanization andconsumptions of natural gas and hydro-power

over last 50 years

Urbanization rate

Hyd

ro-p

ower

100

mkW

h

Nat

ural

gas

con

sum

ptio

n10

0 m

cm

Relationship between the urbanization andconsumptions of iron ore,raw iron and steel

over last 50 years

Urbanization rate

Iro

n o

re1

0,0

00

to

ns

Raw

iro

n a

nd

ste

el1

0,0

00

to

ns

Relationship between the urbanization andconsumptions of cement and timber over

last 50 years

Urbanization rate

Cem

ent

cons

umpt

ion

10,0

00 t

ons

Tim

ber

co

nsu

mp

tio

n1

0,0

00

cm

Relationship between the urbanization andconsumptions of aluminum and copper over last 50

years

Urbanization rate

Alu

min

um c

onsu

mpt

ion

10,0

00 to

ns

Cop

per

cons

umpt

ion

10,0

00 to

ns

Figure C.1.


where

½a; b�T ¼ ðBTBÞ�1BTXn ðD:6Þand

B ¼

�0.5 xð1Þð1Þ þ xð1Þð2Þ� �

1

�0.5 xð1Þð2Þ þ xð1Þð3Þ� �

1

..

. ...

�0.5 xð1Þðn� 1Þ þ xð1ÞðnÞ� �

1

2666664

3777775; ðD:7Þ

300

Xn ¼ ½xð0Þð2Þ; xð0Þð3Þ; xð0Þð4Þ; . . . ; xð0ÞðnÞ�T. ðD:8ÞWe obtained xð1Þ from Eq. (D.5). Let xð0Þ be the fittedand predicted series

vð0Þ ¼ vð0Þð1Þ; vð0Þð2Þ; vð0Þð3Þ; . . . ; vð0ÞðnÞ; . . .� �

;

ðD:9Þwhere

xð0Þð1Þ ¼ xð0Þð1Þ.


Applying the inverse AGO, we then have

vð0ÞðkÞ ¼ vð0Þð1Þ � ba

!ð1� eaÞe�aðk�1Þ; k ¼ 2;3; . . . ;

ðD:10Þwhere vð0Þð1Þ; vð0Þð2Þ; vð0Þð3Þ; . . . ; vð0ÞðnÞ; . . . are calledthe GM(1,1) fitted sequence, while vð0Þðnþ 1Þ;vð0Þðnþ 2Þ; . . . are called the GM(1,1) forecastvalues.

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urbanization, sustainability and the utilization of energy ... · then it predicts chinas supply...

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