Upward and Upward and onward onward A study of Scots out-migrationA study of Scots out-migration

from a global city from a global city

Allan Findlay, Donald Houston, Allan Findlay, Donald Houston, Colin Mason, David McCollum Colin Mason, David McCollum

and Richard Harrison. and Richard Harrison.

Research contextResearch context

ESRC Scottish Demography ESRC Scottish Demography Programme. Programme.

ESRC RES – 342-25-009ESRC RES – 342-25-009

ONS Longitudinal Study: 30048AONS Longitudinal Study: 30048A

Background Background

Traditional flows of young, talented Traditional flows of young, talented individuals from periphery to economic individuals from periphery to economic core regions. core regions.

London as a key global city.London as a key global city. South East England (including London) South East England (including London)

as the UK’s ‘escalator region’ – as the UK’s ‘escalator region’ – Fielding (1992), Champion (2004). Fielding (1992), Champion (2004).

Transients and the global city – Transients and the global city – Conradson and Latham (2005). Conradson and Latham (2005).

Research aims: Research aims:

Investigating the factors behind the Investigating the factors behind the declining Scots born population of declining Scots born population of London.London.

Comparing the occupational mobility Comparing the occupational mobility of Scots in South East England with of Scots in South East England with other groups and places. other groups and places.

Exploring return migration from the Exploring return migration from the South East to Scotland. South East to Scotland.

Scots leave London Scots leave London Scots born population of London and the South East

Location1991 2001 % change

Greater London 113,117 108,602 -4%

South East including London

301,586 261,373 -13%

South East excluding London

188,469 152,771 -19%

Source: CASWEB census dissemination unit.

Migration flows from London to Scotland, selected years.

Year1985 1991 1995 2001 2005

Total flow 5,579 7,766 6,418 8,235 8,200

Source: NHSCR

Migration from Scotland to Greater London and the South East, 1991 and 2001

Location1991 2001 % change

Greater London 7,041 7,529 +7%

SE excl London 7,722 7,525 -3%

Source: UK National Census one year migration data.

Scots on the escalator Scots on the escalator Data relating to proportions of the English and Scottish born populations of England in socio-economic groups 1 and 2 at the 2001 census.

Population% of population

in socio-economic group 1 (higher managerial & professional)

% of population in socio-economic

group 2 (lower managerial & professional)

% of population in socio-economic

groups 1 & 2

Scots resident in SE

21.67 35.09 56.76

Scots resident elsewhere in

England

15.00 30.92 45.92

English resident in SE

13.90 29.13 43.03

English resident elsewhere in

England

9.57 24.38 33.95

Source: Calculated from the UK Longitudinal Study

Continuing career gains Continuing career gains from migration to the from migration to the

South East South East Occupational mobility of Scottish and English born residents of England 1991-2001.

Population Occupational mobility into groups 1-2 (in %)*

Scots resident in SE 25.85

Scots resident elsewhere in England 20.66

English resident in SE 21.95

English resident elsewhere in England 17.84

Residents of England overall 18.98Source: Calculated from the UK Longitudinal Study*expressed as a percentage of all people in each row of the table.

Variables tested Pearson Chi-square value

Significant at 0.01 the level?

Place of birth versus occupational into mobility

groups 1-2

20.954 Yes

Place of residence versus occupational mobility into

groups 1-2

325.541 Yes

Place of birth versus place of residence.

44.483 Yes

Log linear modelling of Log linear modelling of occupational mobilityoccupational mobility

Once place of residence is included, Once place of residence is included, additional variance is explained by additional variance is explained by place of birth. place of birth.

A third significant effect is evident A third significant effect is evident involving place of birth and place of involving place of birth and place of residence. residence.

So why are Scots So why are Scots leaving? leaving?

Not in retirement but in Not in retirement but in early careerearly career

.

Age structure of Scots returnees from SE (including London) by destination 2001.

Age cohort

All Scotland

Edinburgh Glasgow Aberdeen Northern rural

Scotland

Other council areas

0-14 11.56 7.25 11.09 12.17 10.65 13.28

15-29 33.30 44.40 4 0.27 41.27 25.03 30.45

30-44 32.65 34.35 35.26 34.39 29.53 32.45

45-59 13.42 9.29 8.66 5.29 22.28 13.36

60-74 6.89 3.56 3.34 3.70 10.10 7.92

75+ 2.18 1.15 1.37 3.17 2.41 2.94

Source: Calculated from special tabulations provided by GROS

Propensity to return Propensity to return

No relationship by NS-SeC.No relationship by NS-SeC. Strong relationship by education Strong relationship by education

level. level.

Destination selectivity Destination selectivity by class and education by class and education

Proportion of return migrants from SE qualified to degree level

020406080

Scotlandoverall

Edinburgh Glasgow Aberdeen Northernrural

Scotland

Othercouncilareas

Returnees to

% o

f to

tal

Proportion of return migrants from SE in NS-SeC 1 and 2

0102030405060

Scotlandoverall

Edinburgh Glasgow Aberdeen Northernrural

Scotland

Othercouncilareas

Returnees to

% o

f to

tal

Attitudes to returnAttitudes to return

Educated Scots more likely than Educated Scots more likely than other skilled immigrants in South other skilled immigrants in South East to return to area of origin?East to return to area of origin?

Likelihood of return to area of origin, degree qualified in migrants in SE.

ResponseScots Other immigrants

Possibly 31.0% 26.3%

Definitely 17.2% 13.2%

Total 48.2% 39.5%

Source: authors’ survey

Map showing location of Map showing location of the 4 survey areas; the 4 survey areas;

Lambeth, Merton, Oxford Lambeth, Merton, Oxford and Milton Keynes. and Milton Keynes.

Conclusions Conclusions Declining Scots population of South East Declining Scots population of South East

England despite continued attraction of England despite continued attraction of career opportunities in South East.career opportunities in South East.

Increasing migration (including Increasing migration (including returnees) to Scotland from the South returnees) to Scotland from the South East. East.

Many returnees are young, highly Many returnees are young, highly educated and in active employment.educated and in active employment.

Need for re-theorisation of service class Need for re-theorisation of service class migration in relation to global cities. migration in relation to global cities.