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UPCOMING WEBINARS. IMPROVING AD PERFORMANCE WITH THE 3 R’S – FEB. 28 TH. WHAT’s in store 2013. THINK SMALL FOR BIG RESULTS. James Russo - Global Consumer Insights Carman Allison – Shopper & Industry. TODAY’S PRESENTER. CARMAN ALLISON Director , Consumer Insights, Nielsen, Canada - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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UPCOMING WEBINARS
IMPROVING AD PERFORMANCE WITH THE 3 R’S – FEB. 28TH
THINK SMALL FOR BIG RESULTS
James Russo - Global Consumer InsightsCarman Allison – Shopper & Industry
WHAT’S IN STORE 2013
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TODAY’S PRESENTER
CARMAN ALLISONDirector, Consumer Insights, Nielsen, Canada
Carman Allison is responsible for creating and delivering thought leadership to manufacturer and retailer clients and at CPG industry events. A frequently sought-after speaker, Carman is often quoted in the Canadian press on consumer trends including a monthly column in Canadian Grocer.
Carman has more than 20 years of experience in the consumer research industry with Nielsen, where he held various account management and analysis roles.
THINK SMALL FOR BIG RESULTS
James Russo - Global Consumer InsightsCarman Allison – Shopper & Industry
WHAT’S IN STORE 2013
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THE WORLD HAS CHANGED
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THE WORLD HAS CHANGED...PERMANENTLY
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$35trillion
$45trillion
$62trillion
2010 2015 2020
29% increase
in 5 years
38% increase
in 5 years
AND THE OPPORTUNITIES ARE IMMENSE$450 TRILLION
Source: Nielsen Demand Institute
IT’S TIME TO ACT DIFFERENTLYIN THIS SESSSION, WE ARE CHANGING:
The way you assess your marketplace
How you sell to your consumer
Your views of advertising
Where you innovate
Where your growth will be achieved
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2
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CANADIAN GROWTH IS SLOWING
Source: October 2012 World Economic Outlook Report and Statistics Canada, December 2012
v
Actual and Projected Canadian GDP Growth (2006-2017)
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FUTURE GROWTH PROJECTIONS MODEST
Actual and Projected Canadian GDP Growth (2006-2017)
Source: October 2012 World Economic Outlook Report and Statistics Canada, December 2012
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Nielsen Canada Consumer Confidence Index
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE HIGHEST SINCE MID 2011
Source: Nielsen Global Omnibus Consumer Confidence Survey 3Q12
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12Source: Nielsen Global Omnibus Consumer Confidence Survey 3Q2012 vs year ago - Canada
What are your Top 2 concerns over the next six months…
DEBT AND ECONOMIC CONCERNS REMAIN IN THE FOREFRONT OF CONSUMER MINDS
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VOLATILE, UNCERTAIN BUT IMPROVING FACTORS
FUEL COSTSEQUITY MARKETS
LABOUR MARKETS
HOUSING
INFLATION GOVERNMENT
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HOUSEHOLD BALANCE SHEET NOT IMPROVING
AVG INCOME INCOME TO DEBT RATIO
• 2012: $46.6K+3% from 2011+14% from 2007
• 2012: 164.6 +6%• 2011: 160.9• 2007: 124.9
Source: Statistics Canada
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CPG PERFORMANCE STILL STRAINED
Source: Nielsen MarketTrack, Canada National All Channels – 52 weeks ending December 15, 2012Total Tracked Sales excluding Fresh Random Weight
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POLL #1:
YESNONOT SURE
DO YOU THINK CANADA IS CURRENTLY IN A RECESSION?
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AS WE HEAD INTO 2013…..
Canadian Recession Officially Ends
3.5 yearsJune 2009 NBER Nov 2012 NIELSEN
49% of consumers say we are in a recession
Source: Nielsen Global Omnibus Consumer Confidence Survey 3Q2012 vs year ago - Canada
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DO YOU THINK CANADA WILL BE OUT OF A RECESSION IN THE NEXT 12 MONTHS? % SAYING YES
CONSUMER STILL CAUTIOUS ABOUT THE FUTURE
Source: Nielsen Global Omnibus Consumer Confidence Survey 3Q2012 vs year ago - Canada
FINDING GROWTH IN 2013THINK SMALL FOR BIG RESULTS
EVIDENCE FOUND ACROSS THE ORGANIZATION
1. Economic2. Demographic3. Retail4. Consumption5. Innovation
6. Advertising7. Digital8. Viewing Habits9. Entertainment10. Analytics
ECONOMICThe shift to smaller housing formats
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CONSUMERS ARE REDEFINING HOME OWNERSHIP
Source: CMHC 2012 Report
67%homeownership
Average Household Price $363k
Single Dwelling -11%Multi +14%
• Vancouver $780k• Toronto $466k• Montreal $314k
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AS A RESULT, SHOPPING HABITS WILL CHANGE
Source: The Demand Institute
MORE FREQUENT SHOPPING & SMALLER BASKETS
MORE INTEREST IN LOCAL STORES
MORE ONLINE REPLENISHMENT
SMALL HOMEFURNISHINGS
FURNITURE &APPLIANCES
SMALLERPACK SIZES
DUE TO LESS STORAGEWILL CONTINUE TO THRIVE WILL BE SMALLER
DEMOGRAPHICSmaller Household size
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HOUSEHOLD SIZE CONTINUES TO SHRINK
1-2 MEMBER HOUSEHOLDS
• 1970: 38.7%• 2012: 62.7%
Source: Statistics Canada
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GOODS AND SERVICES CHANGE AS A RESULT
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SMALLER IN SIZE, BUT SHOPS MORE FREQUENTLY
Source: Nielsen Homescan: 52 weeks to June 30 2012 - Canada
TRIPS PER SHOPPER SPEND PER TRIP
1-2 mem: 1823+ mem: 177
1-2 mem: $363+ mem: $51
RETAILWhere we transact is getting smaller
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BIG BOX TO ONLINE TO SMART PHONES
TO SMALLER STORES
TO VIRTUALSTORES
RETAIL FORMATS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE
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SMARTPHONES ARE REDEFINING CONSUMER CONNECTION POINTS
37% of Canadians
Own
39% Willing to shop a virtual store
35% Willing to use a retailer loyalty app
24% Willing to use phone to pay
Source: Canadian PanelViews Social Media Survey Oct 2012
CONSUMPTIONDifferentiate with local & Fresh
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WITH SHOPPER TRIPS DECLINING, DIFFERENTIATION IS ESSENTIAL
ECONOMIC GROWTH GREAT RECESSION POST RECESSION
226Avg Annual Trips Per
Shopper
200Avg Annual Trips Per
Shopper
179Avg Annual Trips Per
Shopper
2006 2009 2012
Source: Nielsen Homescan: 52 weeks - Canada
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1.5 to 2.1Times Larger
with Fresh
33%Grocery
Store Sales
FRESH DRIVES GROWTH AND DEMAND
Sources: Homescan, Canada Grocery Stores: 52 weeks to July 7, 2012
53%look for quality
fresh when deciding where
to shop
INNOVATIONTargeting growth in new markets
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GLOBAL PRODUCT INNOVATIONReviewed 35 years of new product concepts
20121978 2008
Over
175,000 concepts were testedacross 73 countries between 1978 - 2012.
50%
Sources: Nielsen BASES
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POPULATION OF SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
68th Kenya 40,046,566 64th Tanzania 41,892,895
52nd S. Africa 49,109,107
15th Nigeria 152,217,341
68th15th
64th
52nd
Sources: CIA Worldfactbook
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HOWEVER IT IS THE ONLY GLOBAL REGION, WHERE EACH COUNTRY REALIZED GROWTH IN INNOVATION2012 vs 2011
+43% Kenya +17% Tanzania
+12% Nigeria
+9% South Africa
43%12%
17%
9%
Sources: Nielsen BASES
VIEWINGLeveraging how we spend our time
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POLL #2
OF THE TV CHANNELS YOU RECEIVE IN YOUR HOME, WHAT IS THE AVG. NUMBER OF CHANNELS YOU WATCH EACH WEEK?"
0% to 10%10% to 20%20% to 30%30% to 40%40% to 50%Over 50%
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AVERAGE CHANNELS RECEIVABLE AND VIEWEDAverage hhld receives 180 channels but views only 17 of them each week
9%Source: NPOWER Length of Tuning, 10/01/2012 - 10/07/2012
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TUNING IN TO LARGE AND SMALL NETWORKS
Source: NPOWER Length of Tuning, 10/01/2012 - 10/07/2012
With at least 15 minutes viewed, the likelihood of viewing commercials are just as high.
DIGITALSmaller devices gaining viewership
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DIGITAL MEDIA IS CAPTURING MORE EYES
OVERALL USAGE – NUMBER OF USERS PERSONS 2+ (IN 000S) – MONTHLY REACH
-1.7% - Watching TV in Home 4.9% - Watching Time Shifted TV (all TV homes) 7.1% - Watching Time Shifted TV (only in DVR homes)
1.5% - Using the Internet on a Computer 4.2% - Watching Video on the Internet
1.0% - Using a Mobile Phone35.7% - Mobile Subscribers Watching Video on a Mobile Phone
Year over Year Change Q4 2010 vs Q4 2011
Sources: Nielsen Cross Platform
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Average Daily Time Spent on Media Activity (h:mm)Total Population, March 2012
HOWEVER, TV STILL ACCOUNTS FOR 80% OF TIME
Source: Nielsen NPower, NetView, Video Census, and Smartphone Analytics
OTHER1:05
TV VIEWING4:32
Online Web Browsing | 0:32Mobile App Usage | 0:13
Time Shifted TV Viewing | 0:11Online Video Streaming | 0:04
Mobile Web Browsing | 0:03Mobile Video | 0:01
ADVERTISING EFFECTIVENESS
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Strategic use of spots
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WITH NEW FORMS OF MEDIA, COMES THE NEED FOR SHORTER SPOTS
Source: BETV Cross-Sector View of 15s vs, 30s Performance
How successful is the Ad at
connecting to the brand?
What is the Ad’s net branding success if we consider BOTH
Breakthrough & Brand Linkage?
How successful is the Ad at breaking through and being
remembered?
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SUCCESSFUL BRAND CAMPAIGN ILLUSTRATING AN EFFECTIVE USE OF SPOTS
Source: BETV Cross-Sector View of 15s vs, 30s Performance
ENTERTAINMENTLeverage demographic shifts and endorsement potential
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WHAT DO THESE 5 ATHLETES HAVE IN COMMON?
JEREMY LIN MICHEAL PHELPS
PEYTON MANNING
DAVID BECKHAM
MANNY PACQUIAO
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5050
ASIAN CONSUMERS HAVE VARIED SPORT ICONS
Sports personalities N-Score, among Asian consumers 01/01/2012 to 12/31/2012
TOP 10 SPORTS PERSONALITIES AMONG ASIAN CONSUMERS
ANALYTICSNew methods for finding growth by drilling deeper10
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NEW INSIGHTS
NEW SOURCES social media
NEW ANALYTICS
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NEW ANALYTICS RELATED TO
• Current, emerging and latent demand
• Most profitable consumers
• Demand Segments and Need States
• The right supply for the right market
• Shared understanding of how to win across the organization
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Small to start, then took off…
CURRENT, EMERGING AND LATENT DEMAND•What are the key “Forces and Factors” shaping current, emerging and latent demand in your category?•What can you learn from analogous categories outside your own that can be applied to your business? •What can you learn from other geographic markets beyond your own?
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POLL #3
WHAT IS THAT A PICTURE OF?
Flax SeedsHemp SeedsCouscousChia SeedsQuinou seeds
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5858
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CHIA SEEDS – WHAT’S THE BUZZ ABOUT?
A fitness buff on Runnersworld.com asked about others’ experiences with chia seed consumption, causing many to share that the seeds are helpful in lowering blood pressure and are a good source of omega-3s.
After a board member on Myfitnesspal.com shared information about the nutritional benefits of chia seeds, many others chimed in to say that they were now interested in trying the “superfood”
A number of Twitter users shared their consumption in real-time,
A diabetic individual on Diabeticconnect.org shared ideas and recipes for using chia seeds, prompting others to discuss which retailers carry the product in their stores.
Trended Buzz for Chia Seeds
0.00%
0.01%
0.02%
0.03%
0.04%
0.05%
0.06%
Nutrition Enthusiasts Mainstream
A
B
D
C
A
B
C
D
Source: Nielsen NM Incite
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NEW SOURCES Role of social medial
NEW INSIGHTS Leverage current, emerging or latent demand
NEW FINANCIALS
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WE ARE IN A NEW STAGE OF BUSINESS
Source:
EITHER RIDE THE WAVE OR GET CRUSHED BY IT
2013 WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY• A CONSUMER REMAINS IN
MAINTENANCE MODE
• UNCERTAINITY DOMINATES
• WEAK EARLY, STRONGER LATE
1 2
IT’S TIME TO ACT DIFFERENTLYREALIZING GROWTH IN 2013
The way you assess your marketplace
How you sell to your consumer
Your views of advertising
Where you innovate
Where your growth will be achieved
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Q & A
THANK YOU FOR ATTENDING
• If you have follow-up questions or want more information, please contact your Nielsen Professional Services rep
• If you are not a current Nielsen client, please contact us
Phone: 800-553-3727
Email: [email protected]
• OR, if you have any questions regarding the content of this webinar, you can also contact:
Carman Allison, email: [email protected]
