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Education related MDG indicators: methodology and issues

Ioulia SementchoukUNESCO Institute for Statistics

November 21, 2012

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OutlineOutline

Millennium Development Goals

Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education

Goal 3: Promote gender equality and empower

women

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Education is vital to meet all Education is vital to meet all of the development goalsof the development goals

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Goal 2Goal 2

Achieve universal primary education

Target 2.A: Ensure that, by 2015, children everywhere,

boys and girls alike, will be able to complete a full course of

primary schooling

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Monitoring indicators: Monitoring indicators: Target 2.A Target 2.A

Youth literacyrate

Progress OutcomeParticipation

Net enrolment rate Survival rate to the last grade

Ensure that, by 2015, children everywhere, boys and girls alike, will be able to complete a full course of primary schooling

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ParticipationParticipation

Indicator 2.1: Net enrolment rate in primary education

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Net enrolment rate (NER)Net enrolment rate (NER) Definition: Percentage of children of the official

primary school age group who are enrolled in primary education.

Calculation: Divide the number of pupils of the official primary age group who are enrolled in primary education by the population for the same age group and multiply the result by 100.

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Net enrolment rate (NER)Net enrolment rate (NER)

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Age PopulationEnrolment in primary

education

5 37,472 19

6 37,484 5,088

7 36,206 32,111

8 36,373 33,983

9 37,196 33,084

10 38,122 30,692

11 39,200 3,027

12 40,777 296

13 43,147 68

14 46,737 47

15 49,511 21

Total   138,436

Republic of Moldova (2011)Republic of Moldova (2011)

897,147107 SAP

Entry age: 7 year old Duration: 4 years

Official age group: 7-10

Age PopulationEnrolment in primary

education

5 37,472 19

6 37,484 5,088

7 36,206 32,111

8 36,373 33,983

9 37,196 33,084

10 38,122 30,692

11 39,200 3,027

12 40,777 296

13 43,147 68

14 46,737 47

15 49,511 21

Total   138,436

Age PopulationEnrolment in primary

education

5 37,472 19

6 37,484 5,088

7 36,206 32,111

8 36,373 33,983

9 37,196 33,084

10 38,122 30,692

11 39,200 3,027

12 40,777 296

13 43,147 68

14 46,737 47

15 49,511 21

Total   138,436

?NER %8.87100*897,147

870,129NER

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Recent updateRecent update Concept of out-of-school children is redefined:

Children of primary school age are counted as being in school when they are either in primary or secondary education.

Adjusted NER (NERA) is more appropriate to monitor MDGs NERA: including primary school age in secondary education

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Adjusted net enrolment rate (NERA)Adjusted net enrolment rate (NERA) Definition: Percentage of children of the official primary

school age group who are enrolled in primary or secondary education.

Calculation: Divide the total number of pupils in the official primary school age range who are enrolled in primary or secondary education in a given school year by the population of the same age group and multiply the result by 100.

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Adjusted net enrolment rate (NERA)Adjusted net enrolment rate (NERA)

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100P

Et

ap

t

apst

pNERA *,

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?NERA

Age PopulationEnrolment in primary education

7 36,206 32,111

8 36,373 33,983

9 37,196 33,084

10 38,122 30,692

Total 147,897 129,870

Republic of Moldova (2011)Republic of Moldova (2011)

%6.90100*147,897

133,962NERA

Age PopulationEnrolment in primary education

Enrolment in secondary education

Total enrolment

7 36,206 32,111 n 32,111

8 36,373 33,983 n 33,983

9 37,196 33,084 38 33,122

10 38,122 30,692 4,054 34,746

Total 147,897 129,870 4,092 133,962

Official age group: 7-10

%8.87NER

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NER vs NERANER vs NERA

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Adjusted net enrolment rateAdjusted net enrolment rate Interpretation: Increasing NERA might reflect improving participation

of children in the official primary school age, the decrease of the target population or both. A value of 100% might indicate that the country has accomplished the UPE goal. However, this condition is not sufficient for UPE due to, for example, a high repetition rate, which might lead pupils to dropout after primary school age without completing primary education.

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Adjusted net enrolment rateAdjusted net enrolment rate Limitations: The theoretical maximum of NERA is 100 per cent.

However, the NERA may exceed this maximum due to inconsistencies between population and enrolment data derived from different data sources. School enrolments may be over or under-reported for various reasons.

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ProgressProgress

Indicator 2.2: Proportion of pupils starting grade 1 who reach the last grade of primary

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Survival rate to the last grade of primary Survival rate to the last grade of primary educationeducation Definition: Percentage of a cohort of pupils enrolled in the first

grade who are expected to reach the last grade of primary education, regardless the repetition.

Rationale: This indicator measures an education system’s success in retaining students from one grade to the next as well as its internal efficiency. Various factors account for poor performance on this indicator, including low quality of schooling, discouragement over poor achievement and the direct and indirect costs of schooling. Students’ progress to higher grades may also be limited by the availability of teachers, classrooms and educational materials.

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Survival rate to the last grade of primary Survival rate to the last grade of primary educationeducationCalculation: The survival rate is calculated on the basis of the reconstructed cohort method, which uses data on enrolment and repeaters for two consecutive years.

This method makes three assumptions: drop-outs never return to school; promotion, repetition and drop-out rates remain constant over

the entire period in which the cohort is enrolled in school; the same rates apply to all pupils enrolled in a given grade,

regardless of whether they previously repeated a grade.

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tics  Primary education Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5

2010 Enrolment 42,673 39,500 46,966 47,569 48,073

2011 Enrolment 39,932 41,989 39,272 46,801 47,666

2011 Repeaters 572 298 245 245 521

 Primary education Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5

2010 Enrolment 42,673 39,500 46,966 47,569 48,073

2011 Enrolment 39,932 41,989 39,272 46,801 47,666

2011 Repeaters 572 298 245 245 521

Albania (2010)Albania (2010)

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t4G

t4Gt

4Gt

5G pRRePR

SR100

*SR

100*t

4G

1t

5G

1t

5Gt

4G EREPR

100*E

RpRRe

t

4G

1t

4Gt

4G

%1.99100*569,47

521666,47t4GPR

%5.0100*569,47

245pRRet

4G

%9.975.0100

1.99*2.98SR

t

5G

 Primary education Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5

2010 Enrolment 42,673 39,500 46,966 47,569 48,073

2011 Enrolment 39,932 41,989 39,272 46,801 47,666

2011 Repeaters 572 298 245 245 521

 Primary education Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5

2010 Enrolment 42,673 39,500 46,966 47,569 48,073

2011 Enrolment 39,932 41,989 39,272 46,801 47,666

2011 Repeaters 572 298 245 245 521

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Survival rate to the last grade of primary Survival rate to the last grade of primary education, 1999 and 2010education, 1999 and 2010

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Survival rate to the last grade of primary Survival rate to the last grade of primary educationeducation Interpretation: Indicator values range from 0% (none of the pupils

starting grade 1 reach the last grade) to 100% (all of the pupils reach the last grade). Survival Rates approaching 100 per cent indicate a high level of retention and a low incidence of dropout. It is important to note that it does not imply that all children of school age complete primary education.

The Survival Rate is a percentage of a cohort of pupils (that is, children who have already entered school) and not a percentage of children of school age.

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Survival rate to the last grade of primary Survival rate to the last grade of primary educationeducation Limitations: Since the calculation of the proportion of pupils

starting grade 1 who reach last grade of primary is based on pupil-flow rates, the reliability of the survival rate depends on the consistency of data coverage on enrolment and repeaters over time and across grades.

Given that this indicator is usually estimated using cohort analysis models that are based on a number of assumptions, care should be taken in using the results in comparisons.

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Gross intake ratio to the last grade – Gross intake ratio to the last grade – Proxy measure of primary completionProxy measure of primary completion Definition: Total number of new entrants in the last grade of

primary education, regardless of age, expressed as a percentage of the population at the theoretical entrance age to the last grade of primary.

Calculation: Divide the number of new entrants in last grade of primary, regardless of age, by the population of theoretical entrance age to the last grade of primary, and multiply the result by 100.

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Gross intake ratio to the last grade of Gross intake ratio to the last grade of primary educationprimary education

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Gross intake ratio to the last grade of Gross intake ratio to the last grade of primary educationprimary education Limitations: The calculation includes all new entrants to the

last grade (regardless of age). Therefore, the ratio can exceed 100%, due to over-aged and under-aged children who enter primary school late/early and/or repeat grades in previous years. However, in the long run the Gross intake ratio to the last grade should approach 100%.

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Gross intake rate to the last grade of primary Gross intake rate to the last grade of primary education, 1999 and 2011education, 1999 and 2011

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OutcomeOutcome

Indicator 2.3: Literacy rate of 15- to 24-year-old women

and men

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Youth literacy rate (15-24 years)Youth literacy rate (15-24 years) Definition: Percentage of people aged 15 to 24 years who

can both read and write with understanding a short, simple statement on their everyday life.

Calculation: Divide the number of people aged 15 to 24 years who are literate by the total population in the same age group and multiply the result by 100.

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Youth literacy rate (15-24 years)Youth literacy rate (15-24 years)

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Youth literacy rate (15-24 years)Youth literacy rate (15-24 years) Interpretation: The indicator ranges from 0% (all youth are illiterate)

to 100% (all youth are literate). Literacy rates below 100 per cent indicate the need to increase school participation and education quality.

Rationale: The youth literacy rate reflects the outcomes of the primary education system over the previous 10 years, and is often seen as a proxy measure of social progress and economic achievement. The literacy rate is the complement of the illiteracy rate. It is not a measure of the adequacy of the literacy levels needed for individuals to function and participate in a society (functional literacy).

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Youth literacy rate (15-24 years)Youth literacy rate (15-24 years)

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Youth literacy rate (15-24 years)Youth literacy rate (15-24 years)

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Youth literacy rate (15-24 years)Youth literacy rate (15-24 years) Limitations: Some countries apply definitions and criteria for

literacy which are different from the international standard defined above, or equate persons with no schooling to illiterates, or change definitions between censuses.

Practices for identifying literates and illiterates during actual census enumeration may also vary. Errors in literacy self-declaration can affect the reliability of the statistics.

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Gender parity index (GPI)Gender parity index (GPI) Definition: Ratio of female to male values of a given

indicator. Purpose: The GPI measures progress towards gender parity

in education participation and/or learning opportunities available for girls in relation to those available to boys.

Calculation: Divide the female value of an indicator by the male value of the same indicator.

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Gender parity index (GPI)Gender parity index (GPI)

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Male

FemaleGER GER

GERGPI

Where:

GPIGER Gender parity index for Gross enrolment ratio

GERFemale Gross enrolment ratio for female

GERMale Gross enrolment ratio for male

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Gross enrolment ratio (GER)Gross enrolment ratio (GER) Definition: Total enrolment in a specific level of education,

regardless of age, expressed as a percentage of the official school-age population corresponding to the same level of education.

Calculation: Divide the number of pupils enrolled in a given level of education regardless of age by the population of the age group which officially corresponds to the given level of education, and multiply the result by 100.

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Gross enrolment ratio (GER)Gross enrolment ratio (GER)

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?Female GER

%96.90

100*340,91

087,83

Female

Female

GER

GER

?GER GPI

?Male

GER%97.89

100*536,97

755,87

Male

Male

GER

GER

School-age population

Enrolment in primary

educationAge Female Male Female Male

6 16,690 17,833 14,477 15,2137 17,398 18,586 16,484 17,3518 18,198 19,435 16,273 17,3579 19,042 20,331 17,352 18,151

10 20,012 21,351 16,716 17,50311 1,639 1,96912 72 10413 28 3814 14 2215 32 47

Total 91,340 97,536 83,087 87,755

Bosnia and Herzegovina (2011)Bosnia and Herzegovina (2011)

01.1%97.89

%96.90GER GPI

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Measuring gender parity Measuring gender parity GER for Primary education, 2011GER for Primary education, 2011

Tajikistan Albania Georgia

Girls GER 98.4 85.4 108.1

Boys GER 102.4 86.4 105.0

GPI 0.96 0.99 1.03

1.00

Perfect parity

Higher rate among boys

Higher rate among girls

Gender parity index – an index of 1.00 is perfect parity, and 0.97 – 1.03 is considered a zone of gender parity

↓↓ ↓

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Gender parity index by level of education, 1999 Gender parity index by level of education, 1999 and 2011and 2011

The horizontal green bar represents the zone of gender parity

Primary education Secondary education Tertiary educationPrimary education Secondary education Tertiary education

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Gender parity index (GPI)Gender parity index (GPI) Limitations: The index does not show whether improvement

or regression is due to the performance of one of the gender groups (boys or girls). Interpretation of the GPI requires trend analysis of the underlying GER values.

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Additional indicators for analysis Are there enough places for all children?

Gross enrolment ratio Do children start school at the right age?

Gross intake rateNet intake rateAdjusted net intake rate

Do all children go to school?Numbers of children out-of-school

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Additional indicators for analysis How do children progress through the system?

Promotion rateRepetition rate

Do children complete primary education?Primary completion rate

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Azerbaijan (2011) Most children are in school but NERA is low - why?

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Entry age: 6 year old Duration: 4 years

Official age group: 6-9

Age Population

Enrolment in primary

education

Enrolment in secondary education

5 120,999 8,986 n

6 121,286 96,895 n

7 132,395 113,448 n

8 127,083 115,544 n

9 124,368 111,621 3,311

10 129,599 31,393 77,913

Total 505,132 437,508 3,311

100*505,132

440,819NERA

%3.87NERA

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Azerbaijan (2011)

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NERA vs GER in primary education

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Azerbaijan (2011) Percentage of 6- and 7-year-olds in primary grade 1

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Azerbaijan (2011) Reason for low NERA: late entry into primary school

Entry age: 6 year old Age Population

Enrolment in Grade 1 of primary education

5 120,999 68

6 121,286 92,578

7 132,395 25,678

8 127,083 1,627

9 124,368 13

10 129,599 16

11 134,296 15

12 138,566 3

Total 119,998

100*121,286

92,578NIR

%3.76NIR

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Contact informationIoulia SementchoukEducation Indicators and Data AnalysisUNESCO Institute for Statisticsi.sementchouk@unesco.orgwww.uis.unesco.org

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