Understanding the Impacts of Drought Restrictions

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<ul><li> 1. Ricardo-AEA Ricardo-AEA Ltd www.ricardo-aea.com Aaron Burton CIWEM Annual Conference April 2014 Understanding the impacts of drought restrictions </li></ul> <p> 2. Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo-AEA in Confidence2 Background to 2012 Drought 3. Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo-AEA in Confidence3 A weird drought? Terry Marsh and Simon Parry, An Overview of the 2010-12 Drought and Its Dramatic Termination (2012), http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/20083/. 4. Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo-AEA in Confidence4 Aims Obtain a clear picture of the impact of TUBs on various customer groups Help fill the knowledge gap on impacts of TUBs and link to wider EA / Defra work Objectives Impacts of restrictions Recommendations on collecting and sharing data in the future and reducing conflict with customers Assessing bounce back Published UKWIR WR01A Aims &amp; objectives of UKWIR research 5. Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo-AEA in Confidence5 Top down approach Water into supply leakage &amp; statistical modelling to determine impacts of restrictions Bottom-up approach Quantification of survey responses for volumes Property level metering Comparison of approaches to assess restrictions 6. Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo-AEA in Confidence6 Communications 7. Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo-AEA in Confidence7 Stakeholder survey 8. Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo-AEA in Confidence8 Messaging (domestic shown in graph)Messaging and information sources 38 21 19 19 18 14 13 11 8 5 5 2 2 2 1 1 * 20 17 TV Word of mouth (e.g. neighbours, family, friends) Local newspaper Information sent directly to you by your water company National newspaper Local radio station National radio station Internet Posters in local area or on transport Letter sent directly to you by your local council The website of your water company Through politicians Through environmental / wildlife charities Facebook Posters at work Other Twitter Can't remember None of these % who heard from this source Any source: 63% Q17: In which, if any, of the following ways did you see or hear information about the 2012 drought or the hosepipe ban? Base: All respondents (1003) Interviewed online from 26 July 2013 to 7 August 2013 9. Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo-AEA in Confidence9 Understanding of TUB restrictions (non domestic shown below) 10. Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo-AEA in Confidence10 Behavioural impacts of TUBs on consumption 4 2 72 68 15 11 4 5 6 14 Gardener (54) Window cleaner (288) % Increased a lot % Increased a little % Stayed about the same % Decreased a little % Decreased a lot % Dont know Q15: To what extent, if at all, did the frequency with which you use a mobile car valeter/ window cleaner/ gardener change during when the hosepipe ban was in place in 2012? 11. Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo-AEA in Confidence11 Public attitude to future use of restrictions 35 7 4 5 8 6 4 3 2 3 3 3 3 29 23 19 18 15 15 11 11 7 5 5 4 4 9 27 32 23 23 21 36 28 19 15 15 20 18 20 36 39 41 43 53 42 49 63 68 64 65 65 7 7 6 13 12 6 6 9 8 9 13 8 10 Fill or maintain a pond which contained fish (72) Water new outdoor plants (805) Water established outdoor plants (805) Water new lawns or grassed areas (756) Clean a dog or other domestic animals (205) Fill or maintain a paddling pool (156) Fill or maintain a pond which did not contain fish (63) Water established lawns or grassed areas (756) Fill or maintain a water feature/ ornamental fountain (98) Clean paths or patios (810) Clean other outdoor surfaces e.g. decking or roofs (1003) Clean a motor-vehicle(s) which was for private use (774) Clean outside walls or windows (1003) Very serious (%) Fairly serious (%) Not very serious (%) Not at all serious (%) Don't know (%) Q12a: How serious, if at all, would a ban on using a hosepipe for the following activities be for you and your household? Base: All respondents who have this feature in their property bases shown in brackets Interviewed online from 26 July 2013 to 7 August 2013 12. Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo-AEA in Confidence12 Data analysis 13. Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo-AEA in Confidence13 Example for London Water Resources Zone 14. Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo-AEA in Confidence14 Comparison of percentage of properties exhibiting high flow events (Thames Water) 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00% 12.00% 14.00% 16.00% London 3am to 4 am Thames Valley 3 am to 4 am London 6 pm to 11 pm Thames Valley 6 pm to 11 pm Percentageofpropertiesexhbiitinghigh flowevents Apr-June 2011 Apr-June 2012 Apr-June 2013 15. Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo-AEA in Confidence15 Demand 1-2% lower than forecast in lead up to TUB implementation not statistically significant In the run-up to TUB implementation maximum decrease was 6.5% of forecast Maximum decrease was 10% during TUB implementation Comparison with top down analysis Angela Wallis, IWA Efficient 2013 Conference, Paris 16. Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo-AEA in Confidence16 Australian comparison and considering bounce - back 922 801 742 667 666 549 536 554 551 697 762 400 600 800 Norestrictions Level1 Level2 Level3 Level4 Level5 Level6 HighLevel MediumLevel PWCM Norestrictions Meanobserveddailytotalwater production(ML/d) Target 140 TV campaign launched, shower timers distributed, high water users letters distributed CA Beal, A Makki, and RA Stewart, IWA Efficient 2013 Conference, Paris 17. Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo-AEA in Confidence17 Water Sensitive Communities CIRIA WSUD Scoping Study http://www.ciria.org/Resources/Free_publications/Water_Sensitive_Urban_Design.aspx 18. Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo-AEA in Confidence18 Principle 1: Ensure a consistent and transparent approach Principle 2: Ensure that water use restrictions are proportionate Principle 3: Communicate clearly with customers and the wider public/users Principle 4: Consider representations in a fair way Selected Recommendations 19. Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo-AEA in Confidence19 TUBs appear to have reduced consumption Bottom-up analysis provides further detail on individual measures, how these were understood, and potential impacts on business A range of recommendation to inform drought and water resources planning Further research Longer running end use analysis to observe changes in wider water use during TUB periods and linked to communication/ behaviour change programmes Apply statistical approaches to account for rainfall to bottom-up meter data Permanent water efficiency measures preference for longer term lower impact TUBs observed in Australia Water sensitive cities approaches how can we address flood risk and drought over the long term? Conclusions and further research 20. Ricardo-AEA Ltd www.ricardo-aea.com T: E: W: 14th Floor Marble Arch Tower 55 Bryanston Street London W1H 7AA @AaronBurton1001 Aaron Burton +44 (0)1235 753701 aaron.burton@ricardo-aea.com www.ricardo-aea.com Thank You </p>