understanding inland fisheries production using household consumption and expenditure surveys

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Understanding inland fisheries production using household consumption and expenditure surveys Simon Funge-Smith Secretary, Asia-Pacific fishery Commission (APFIC) FAO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific

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Page 1: Understanding inland fisheries production using household consumption and expenditure surveys

Understanding inland fisheries production using household consumption and expenditure surveys

Simon Funge-SmithSecretary, Asia-Pacific fishery Commission (APFIC)FAO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific

Page 2: Understanding inland fisheries production using household consumption and expenditure surveys

We know inland fisheries are important in some Asian countries

• Inland fisheries a source of food and food security throughout the Asian region– 9 Asian countries in top 16 inland

fisheries producers– 11 Asian countries produce 65.5 % of

reported global inland fisheries production

• Often overlooked– national statistics – considerations of food security

• Inland fisheries are a vital part of some rural people's livelihoods– a major nutritional role– especially for vulnerable populations

Roadside sale of dried fishLao PDR

Page 3: Understanding inland fisheries production using household consumption and expenditure surveys

Inland statistics and valuations are weak

• Monitoring of inland fisheries remains rather poor

• Many countries reports are estimates, not based on actual measures of production– unreliable statistics– reduces confidence in the data – prevents effective analysis at the sub-national

level

• Often an assumption that production is homogeneous

• Actually highly variable sub-nationally– downscaling important for assessing

importance, role and vulnerabilities – as well as potential impacts

• Leads to mis-directed or uninformed policy

Fermented fish “ngapi”Myanmar

Page 4: Understanding inland fisheries production using household consumption and expenditure surveys

Household consumption and expenditure surveys

• Consumption of fish can be picked up by national household surveys– statistically significant – conducted regularly – high level of statistical accuracy

• Can be “triangulated” with other data– production/trade stats– population census– agricultural census Tonle Sap

flooded villageCambodia

Page 5: Understanding inland fisheries production using household consumption and expenditure surveys

Surveys provide idea of sub-national variability

• Provide detail on consumption patterns and habits – detail on commodities and food types

consumed and purchased– contribution of fish to total protein

consumption

• Downscaled information by– district/province/region– urban rural– by income bands

• Can inform fisheries and natural resource policies – that impact vulnerable segments of the

population– fishery dependent areas

Water snail dredgingTonle Sap, Cambodia

Page 6: Understanding inland fisheries production using household consumption and expenditure surveys

1950 1970 1990 20100

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

Example - validating inland production in Myanmar

• Large annual increases in reported inland capture production – 389 percent over a decade– “recognition of historic under-

estimation”– no statistical basis for annual increases?– no natural inter-annual variation

• Potential to validate with household consumption survey?– 75% of fish from inland or estuarine

waters – majority from capture fisheries. – inland capture fisheries ~750,000 tonnes

• Reported production over-estimated?– household consumption surveys often

under-estimate consumption….

• But..unlikley to be 50% off?

750,000 tonnes

Page 7: Understanding inland fisheries production using household consumption and expenditure surveys

Example - Cambodia

• Massive inland fisheries• Huge increases in late 1990’s

– Inclusion of “previously unreported small scale fisheries”

• Reported inland production ~450,000 tonnes

• Consumption surveys help validate massively increased production estimate…– total national fish consumption

~890,344 tonnes– 71% of fish from inland– Inland ~630,000 tonnes

• So current reports may still be under-estimates!

1975 1985 1995 2005 20150

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

Page 8: Understanding inland fisheries production using household consumption and expenditure surveys

Lao PDR - fishery or aquaculture?• Statistics reported to FAO indicate

– aquaculture provides 75% of fish– inland capture fishery only 25% of fish

• Household consumption survey indicates source of fish, locations– Aquaculture only 22%– inland fisheries 88 %

• Fisheries probably grossly under reported and undervalued– dependency varies within country– implications for water policy

• Consumption figures already exceed national reported production

Page 9: Understanding inland fisheries production using household consumption and expenditure surveys

India - inland fishery production estimates periodically reset?

• 13 cases of inter-annual variations >20%– Sometimes as much as 40%

• Not really explained by drought/flood years?• “Resetting” by national statistical reporters?• Surveys may help validate production totals

– Reduce fluctuations

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Page 10: Understanding inland fisheries production using household consumption and expenditure surveys

Consumption surveys have limitations

• Can be frustrating– Generally under-estimation?

• Recall is vulnerable to biases• Distinguishing source of fish difficult

– Can be guessed or estimated by product form or species

• Seasonal data may not capture highs and lows– surveys conducted in dry season for easy access,

may miss monsoon peak production period

• May need some interpretation to account for conversions– under- over- estimation errors – e.g. adjust for fresh weights of reported dried

and processed foods

Fish trapsMekong river, Lao PDR

Page 11: Understanding inland fisheries production using household consumption and expenditure surveys

Improving the value of surveys

• Getting the sampling and questions right – yields valuable additional information

on sources of products– e.g. aquaculture, inland fishery,

marine fishery– rule out seasonality

• May support indicative of proxy estimates of inland fishery production– Important where inland fishery

production statistics are estimated with little or no basis

Mixed wild & stocked fish Aquaculture

Page 12: Understanding inland fisheries production using household consumption and expenditure surveys

Summary• Inland statistics are weak

– substantial heterogeneity in national production– lack of understanding gives misleading policy

• Household consumption and expenditure surveys – can give excellent idea of sub-national

consumption of fish– can validate erroneous production estimates– can support indicative of proxy estimates of inland

fishery production

• Important where inland fishery production statistics are estimated with little or no basis

• They do have weaknesses– may be less good for splitting fishery/aquaculture– need to account for wet weight conversions

• Getting the questions right reduces errors and gives information on sources of production