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FLEXIBILITY IN PARADIGM EVALUATION

Walter UlrichThe importace o! "#$%i% para$i%m& !or $e'ate i& (#ite clear) A more $i!!ic#lt (#e&tio i& ho* the appropriate

para$i%m !or a %i+e ro#$ &ho#l$ 'e $etermie$) Ro*la$,& article cotai& a lar%e #m'er o! !r#it!#l o'&er+atio&a'o#t potetial &ta$ar$& that ca 'e #&e$ to e+al#ate +ario#& "#$%i% para$i%m&) -i& e&&a. $oe&/ ho*e+er/ o+erloo0

a critical i&e i para$i%m e+al#atio1 *hat !or#m &ho#l$ 'e #&e$ to e+al#ate "#$%i% para$i%m&) There are t*o

%eeral approache& that ca 'e ma$e to thi& pro'lem) A para$i%m ca either 'e impo&e$ #po a i$i+i$#al $e'ate'. a e2teral a%et 3'e that the "#$%e/ a e2teral or%ai4atio/ or the co&e& o! a comm#it. o! e2pert&5/ or thepara$i%m ca e+ol+e !rom each i$i+i$#al $e'ate)

To a&me that a para$i%m &ho#l$ 'e impo&e$ o all $e'ate& !rom the o#t&i$e *o#l$ re(#ire that $e'ate !#ctio

a& a 6ormal, &ciece/ operati% *ithi a para$i%m a$ a&*eri% tho&e (#e&tio& that e+ol+e !rom that para$i%m) It

*o#l$ al&o re(#ire a *i$e co&e& o the proper *a. to ar%#e) To a$opt a tab ula rasa approach *o#l$ ma0e $e7'ate& aalo%o#& to re+ol#tioar. &ciece/ *ith each 6e2perimet, te&ti% 'oth the $ata a$ the para$i%m #&e$ to

e+al#ate the $ata), Thi& *o#l$ mea that m#ltiple para$i%m& ma. e2i&t at a. %i+e time/ each &ee0i% the attetio

o! +ario#& e2teral "#$%e&) Thi& $oe& otDr. [Tl,-ich is Director of Forensics at the University of Alabama.

1 For a e2plaatio o! the $i&tictio 'et*ee ormal &ciece a$ re+ol#tioar. &ciece/ &ee Thoma& 8) 9#h/ The Structure of 8cieti!ic

Revolutions, &eco$ e$itio 3:hica%o1 Ui+er&it. o! :hica%o Pre&&/ 1970).

$e. the ee$ to $e+elop &ta$ar$& !or e+al#ati% para$i%m&; rather it %%e&t& that the comm#it. &ho#l$ 'e ope

to a +ariet. o! competi% para$i%m& i&tea$ o! impo&i% oe para$i%m o all mem'er& o! a !iel$) The empha&i& o

ormal &ciece i&tea$ o! re+ol#tioar. &ciece ca 'e #$e&ira'le !or $e'ate/ "#&t a& it ca 'e #$e&ira'le !or&ciece) Popper i&olate$ &ome o! the pro'lem& o! ormal &ciece1 9) R) Popper/

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I=OURNAL OF TI7IL AMERI:AN FOREN8I: A88O:IATION/ Vol#me @/ Witer @@ =OURNAL OF T-E AMERI:AN FOREN8I: A88O:IATIONi& that he attempt& to pro+i$e 8ome &ta$ar$&for e+al#ati% potetial para$i%m& '. i&olati% a %eeral %oal o! theacti+it. a$ e2trapolati% &peci!ic %#i$elie& !or para$i%m& !rom that %oal) The $e+elopmet o! the&e %#i$elie& i&e&peciall. critical)a Thi& i& tr#e &ice/ #li0e &ciece *hich ca t#r to the a'ilit. o! a para$i%m to pre$ict e+et&

i or$er to e+al#ate theorie&/ $e'ate #all. empha&i4e& *hatshould'e $oe/ *hich i& le&& ope to empiricalmeare> met) The pro'lem *ith $e+elopi% a %#i$elie !or para$i%m e+al#atio i& that the %#i$elie ma.

'ecome too re&tricti+e a$ th#& ihi'it the $e+elopmet o! #&e!#l para$i%m&)

The $e+elopmet o! a. Gel$ re(#ire& that e* i$ea& &ho#l$ 'e %i+e the opport#it. to compete *ith ol$ i$ea&)While $e'ate ha& a lar%e #m'er o! potetial "#$%i% para$i%m& alrea$. $e+elope$/ it *o#l$ 'e irratioal to $e.

that there i& a po&&i'ilit. that a perior "#$%i% para$i%m e2i&t& that ha& ot .et 'ee artic#late$) The *hole theme

o! 9#h,& *or0& o para$i%m& i& that &ciece pro%re&&e& thro#%h the a$optio o! e* para$i%m& that are perior i&ome maer to earlier para$i%m&) To e&ta'li&h ri%i$ &ta$ar$& !or para$i%m&/ ho*e+er/ ma. precl#$e the

co&i$eratio o! potetiall. !r#it!#l para$i%m&1With &ta$ar$& &et hi%her/ o oe &ati&!.i% the criterio o! ratioalit. *o#l$ 'e iclie$ to tr. o#t the e* theor./ to artic#late it i *a.& *hich

&ho*e$ it& !r#it!#le&& or $i&pla.e$ its acc#rac. a$ &cope) I doubt that &ciece would r+i+e/ What !rom oe +ie*poit ma. &eem theloo&ee&& a$ imper!ectio o! choice criteria cocei+e$ a& r#He& ma./ *he the &ame criteria are &ee a& +al#e&/ appear a i$i&pe&a'le mea& o!

&prea$i% the ri&0 *hich the itro$#ctio or pport o! o+elt. al*a.& etail&/8ee Pa#l A) Fre#$/ 6A Aal.&i& o!

=#$icial Rea&oi%/? i$a! and %hiloso&hy'

A Sym&osium, e$ite$ '. 8i$e. -oo0 3Ne*Yor01 Ne* Yor0 Ui+er&it. Pre&&/ @J5/ p) ) Thoma& 8) 9#h/ The (ssential Tension

3:hica%o1 Ui+er&it. o! :hica%o Pre&&/ @5/

The &ta$ar$& artic#late$ '. Ro*la$ ma. &eem a$e(#ate !rom o#r c#rret per&pecti+e/ '#t to a$opt them a& a'7&ol#te &ta$ar$& ma. ca#&e #& to re"ect a para$i%m premat#rel. *hich ma. !ail !r to &ati&!. oe o! hi& &tathr$&/ '#t

*hich ~-, ha& the potetial to 'e perior to alter7ati+e para$i%m& *he other criteria are #&e$) 9#h/ !ore2ample/ ote& that i the earl. &ta%e& o! a. re+ol#tio/ a e* para$i%m rarel. ha& the pro'lem &ol+i% >

capacit. o! the ol$er para$i%m) The N >= #ltimate periorit. o! the e* para$i%m ~, ma. #ltimatel. 'e 'a&e$ o

&ome criteria that caot 'e pre$icte$ 'e!ore 9 ~ the e* para$i%m emer%e&) I a$$itio/ #> tra$itioal&ta$ar$& !or e+al#ati% a F para$i%m ma. 'e har$ to appl. to a &peci!ic para$i%m)e

Thi& i& ot to &a. that &ta$ar$& !or e+al#ati% para$i%m& ha+e o #tilit./ '#t rather it i& to %%e&t that the.&ho#l$ ot 'e #&e$ a& 'li$er&) Ne* para$i%m& ma. %%e&t e* %oal& !or the $e'ate acti+it./ or the. ma. %%e&t

other implicatio& o! c#rret %oal& o! the $e'ate acti+it.) The &ta$ar$& !or para$i%m e+al#atio/ li0e the para$i%m

#&e$ i a $e'ate/ m#ht 'e '"ect to $i&c#&&io i i$i+i$#al ro#$&/ altho#%h the %#i$elie& %%e&te$ '. Ro*la$

are certail. a pla#&i'le &et o! %#i$elie& !or a$+ocate&/It ma. 'e ar%#e$ that thi& !orm#latio o! %#i$elie& ma. lea$ to a i!iite re%re&&; i! the criteria #&e$ to

$eteie *hich para$i%m i& 'e&t are $e'ata'le/p) ) 9#h does al&o ca#tio a'o#t &etti% the standards !or a para$i%m too lo*/ th#&permitti% a lar%e #m'er o! badpara$i%m& to eterthe !iel$)

9#h/ Structure of Scientific Revolutions,pp) @J7@)

J For a $i&c#&&io o! the pro'lem *ith $etermii% *hether a theor. i& clear or co&i&tet/ !or e2ample/ &ee :harle& Arth#r Willar$) 68ome

8pec#latio& A'o#t E+i$ece/? i%roceedin#s of the Summer Conference on Ar#umentation, e$ite$ '. =ac0 Rho$e& a$ 8a Ne*ell 38alt La0e

:it./ Utah1 8peech :omm#i) catio A&&ociatioKAm>ca Fore&ic A&&o) ciatio/ =a#ar. @/ @C5/ pp) C7@)

that merel. &hi!t& the i&e to ho* the $e'ate o+er the criteria 'e $eci$e$) I ma. ca&e& thi& *ill 'e irrele+at/ &ice

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'oth a$+ocate& ma. a%ree either o the %eeral %oal o! the acti+it. or o the &peci!ic %#i$elie& $ra* !rom the %oal

3altho#%h mem'er& o! the !iel$ ee$ to 'e ca#tio#& a'o#t letti% the&e a&mptio& %o #chec0e$ !ore+er5) The re7

(#iremet that the %#i$elie& m#&t 'e artic#late$ *o#l$ al&o r#le o#t &ome potetial %#i$elie&) Ultimatel./ the

a'ilit. to &cree o#t 'a$ para$i%m& *hile eco#ra%i% potetiall. #&e!#l para$i%m& *ill $epe$ o the attit#$e o! the"#$%e1 the "#$%e ee$& to 'e recep@

ti+e to e* para$i%m& a$ %#i$elie&/ a$ &ho#l$ po&&e&& a $e%ree o! &el!7re!lecti+ee&&the a'ilit. to aal.4e

hi&Kher o* rea&o& !or re"ecti% a para$i%m a$ to elimiate irratioal rea&o& !or re"ecti% a para$i%m)T A "#$%e&ho#l$ 'e ope to 'oth +ario#& para$i%m& a$ alterati+e *a.& o! e+al#ati% para$i%m&) Ro*la$ ha& pro+i$e$ a

iitial !rame*or0 !or e+al#ati% para$i%m&/ '#t the&e ee$ to 'e +ie*e$ a& potetial %#i$elie&/ ope to critical

e+al#atio)7 8tephe To#lmi/)uman Understandin# 3Priceto/ Ne* =er&e.1 Priceto Ui+er&it. Pre&&/ @5/ p) C)

FLEXIBILITY IN PARADIGM EVALUATION