Royal University of Phnom Penh Department of International Studies

Topic : Ukraine Crisis Subject: Model United Nations

Lecturer: Mey Punlork Presenters:Sao Phal Niseiy

Lim Chunhai

Content

• Root causes of Ukraine crisis• Crimea: why it is important ?• International community and its response to

the crisis.• Ukraine Peace Talks • NATO and military buildup

Questions

• What are the root causes of Ukraine crisis? • Did Russia really invade Ukraine? • Is annexation of Crimea by Russia illegal based

on international laws ? • Why U.S deeply involve in Ukraine crisis? • Has peace agreement been entirely practiced?• Will Ukraine crisis be ended soon?

Root causes of Ukraine Crisis • In November 2013, Russian-backed government of president Viktor

Yanukovych abandoned the plans to sign an association agreement with the EU.

Recalled in May 2002 Ukrainian Leader announces decision to launch formal bid to join Nato

• Thousands of Ukrainians gathered in Kiev protesting against government’s decision, accusing the government of allegedly being corrupt and unaccountable.

• The protests escalation continued for three months and it was known as “Maidan Movement”

• In January 2014, Yanukovych ordered military forces to violently crackdown on protestors, leaving nearly a hundred people dead and hundreds arrested.

• In February 2014, Protest leaders, the political opposition and Yanukovich agreed to form a new government and hold early elections.

• Yanukovich fled Kiev after protesters take control of the capital.

• Feb 22: Ukraine politicians vote to remove Yanukovich.

• May 25 is set for fresh presidential elections.

Russian invasion and Crimea annexation

• Uprising emerged in eastern part of Ukraine. • Autonomous Republic of Crimea’s people and armed men who support

Kremlin government occupied the public building

• Russian president publicly claimed his gov’t will use all possible means to protect Russian citizens in Crimea. In March 01, Russian upper house of the parliament approves a request by Putin to use military power in

Ukraine. • Hundreds of Russian troops were sent to Crimea to overtake the

territory.• In March 6, Crimea's parliament votes unanimously in favour of joining

Russia.• People in Crimea decided to hold the referendum to declare

independence from Ukraine in March 16.

• UNSC members considered referendum in Crimea as illegal and voted in supportof a draft resolution condemning an upcoming referendum on the future of Crimea. Russia vetoed and China abstained.

• In Mach 16, the referendum was held and the poll showed that 97% of people voted on joining with Russian Federation.

• President Putin signed the treaty on annexing Crimea as a part of Russia.

• UN General Assembly approves a resolution declaring Russian annexation of Ukraine's Crimea illegal.

- Ukraine's ousted president admitted he was "wrong" in inviting Russian troops into Crimea and promised to try to persuade Moscow to return the peninsula in April 02.

Eastern part of Ukraine called for independence ? -In April 2014, pro-Russian activists occupied the government buildings in the eastern cities of Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkiv, calling for a referendum on independence. -Civil war and the Russian backed rebel forces have been fighting with government forces since then killing thousands of people and leaving thousands of them displaced.

• Fresh presidential election was organized in May 25, paving the way for Chocolate man Petro Poroshenko to come to power as a president.

• But new president and government can help put an end to the crisis?

Why Crimea is so important ?

• Historical background of Crimea Crimea became part of the Russian Empire in 1783. It was a gift to Ukraine by Nikita Kruchev to mark "Gifted the

300th anniversary of Ukraine's merger with the Russian empire.• Russian population in Crimea vs Tata muslims

• Vitally strategic peninsular for military purpose ( warm water port)

Back in 1997, Friendship treaty signed with Russia. Ukraine and Russia also reach agreement on the Black Sea fleet.

Ukrainian Parliament in 2010 ratifies an agreement to extend Russia's lease on the Black Sea fleet base at Sevastopol in Crimea for 25 years, in return for cheaper gas imports.

Sanctions against Russia

• The major goal of Western sanctions is to change Russia’s policy towards Ukraine, namely to stop Russia from supporting and sending arms and fighters to Ukraine.

• There are 4 waves of sanctions

- First Wave: March 2014: some EU countries, Canada led by the U.S

imposed sanctions targeted individuals and organizations close to the Russian leadership. Those sanctions includes:

visa bans from entering EU countries , the US freeze their assets 23 senior government officials by the US 25 government officials by EU

• Second Wave:– April 2014: started when the situation in southeast Ukraine

significantly escalated and evolved into a full-scale civil war. – The sanctions was: sweeping economy-wide measures that

have frozen credit flows and high-tech goods exports to Russia

• Third Wave:– July 2014: caused by the downing of Malaysian Boeing flight

MH17, over southeast Ukraine. – Western countries started to accuse Russia of supplying

rebels with ammunition that allegedly could shoot down the plane.

– The sanctions were aimed against the sectors of the Russian economy – energy, finance, high-tech – with the purpose of slowing down Russian economic growth and worsening the country’s investment climate.

– Those sanctions include: bans on technologies of dual-use and arms exports on 4 big Russian Banks.

• Fourth Wave:– September 2014: targeting

• 4 new banks – Sberbank (the biggest Russian bank), Bank of Moscow, VTB and Russian Agricultural Bank

• energy companies • high-tech companies• Oil and defense companies• Politicians in Russia

Impacts on Russian economy• Putin claimed that the sanctions would be “an incentive for a more

efficient and faster movement” towards his reform goals, including freeing Russia from dependence on foreign technology.

• Some also say that “The sanctions could have a positive effect by pushing the Russian economy to modernize itself by reducing its reliance on oil and gas resources.”

• Western sanctions have had a mixed impact on Russian economy, hitting the financial and energy sectors the hardest.

• One view that those sanctions could hurt both Russia and EU (Because Russia is the third-largest trading partner of the EU and the EU is the leading trading partner of Russia)

• The medium-term effect of Western sanctions does not pose a serious threat to the Russian economy, however, in the long-run, prolonging the ‘sanctions war’ will threaten the Russian economy.

• An opposing view argues that sanctions will hit the Russian economy hard by having an inflationary impact on prices and leading to ruble depreciation. This view also argues that Western sanctions have tipped the Russian economy into recession.

• Financial sector: The Ukrainian crisis has already affected the Russian economy.

• Energy sector: The sanctions ban technologies transfer to Russian oil and gas companies, which will have consequences for the Russian energy sector in the medium-term, especially given the increasing race for the resources in the Arctic shale. However, given European dependence on Russian energy resources, the ban doesn’t restrict supply of Russian oil and gas to Europe.

• The Russian ruble has declined against the US dollar. The Russian currency has now fallen as much as 40 percent since January 2014.

• The fall in the value of Russian ruble bring Russia to a recession, inflation and high interest rates.

• Investors have started to revise Russia’s investment prospects. IMF analyzed that Russia’s GDP is expected to grow by only 0.5% in 2015.

• On October 2, 2014 the head of the RCB, Elvira Nabiullina, claimed that the capital flow out of Russia might exceed $90 billion.

• However, some big economic sectors are generally unaffected by the sanctions, such as Russian gas exports and nuclear energy, as they are of a strategic character for Russian partners in the West.

Ukraine Peace Talk and Mink agreement

UNSC and UNGA mainly concerned about:

– Humanitarian in Eastern Ukraine.

– Diplomatic relation not only Russia and Ukraine but also amongst the

EU.

– Peace and security on state sovereignty.

– UNGA resolution 68/262 (March 27, 2014)

• 100 UN member states support not to recognize any change in the status of

Crimean.

• “Territorial integrity of Ukraine”.

• Introduce by Canada, Costa Rica, Germany, Lithuania, Poland and Ukraine.

Minsk Agreement

• Ukraine, Russia, and the OSCE agreed on a protocol in Minsk, Belarus on 5 September 2014, however; this collapsed shortly in January 2015.

• At a summit in Mink on 11 February 2015, the leaders of Ukraine, Russia , France, and Germany agreed to a package of measures known as Minsk II to end war in Donbas.

But Minsk agreement II has been comprehensively implemented by both sides?

Minsk Protocol

1. To ensure an immediate bilateral ceasefire.

2. To ensure the monitoring and verification of the ceasefire by the OSCE .

3. Decentralization of power, including through the adoption of the Ukrainian law "On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts

of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts".

4. To ensure the permanent monitoring of the Ukrainian-Russian border and verification by the OSCE with the creation of security zones in the border

regions of Ukraine and the Russian Federation.

5. Immediate release of all hostages and illegally detained persons.

6. A law preventing the prosecution and punishment of persons in connection with the events that have taken place in some areas of Donetsk and

Luhansk Oblasts.

7. To continue the inclusive national dialogue.

8. To take measures to improve the humanitarian situation in Donbass.

9. To ensure early local elections in accordance with the Ukrainian law "On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk

and Luhansk Oblasts".

10. To withdraw illegal armed groups and military equipment as well as fighters and mercenaries from Ukraine.

11. To adopt a program of economic recovery and reconstruction for the Donbass region.

12. To provide personal security for participants in the consultations

Follow-up memorandum

1. To pull heavy weaponry 15 kilometres (9.3 mi) back on each side of the line of contact,

creating a 30-kilometre (19 mi) buffer zone

2. To ban offensive operations

3. To ban flights by combat aircraft over the security zone

4. To withdraw all foreign mercenaries from the conflict zone

5. To set up an OSCE mission to monitor implementation of Minsk Protocol

Mink II 1.http://www.osce.org/ru/cio/140221?download=true2.http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/11408266/Minsk-agreement-on-Ukraine-crisis-text-in-full.htmlThe links above accesses to Minsk agreement and can download.

NATO

• What, When, Who and Why NATO?• Why NATO so cautious with Ukraine crisis? • NATO military exercise

What, When, and Why ?

• North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO): an intergovernmental military alliance

• Estalished: on 4 April 1949 • Purpose: To respond to any assertiveness from

USSR during Cold War period through “Collective Defend”.

• 12 founding members: Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, UK & US.

• Presently, NATO comprise of 28 memberships

Who ?

Why NATO so cautious with Ukraine Crisis?

Black Sea

Baltic Sea

September 2014

NATO Military Exercise 2014

• November 2014: NATO have conducted many military exercise which involving 25,000-40,000 soldiers in the western country alone, NATO General Hans-Lothar said. (Global research)

• September in the Baltic States: Iron word 2014

NATO Military Exercise 2015

NATO Military Exercise 2015

• March 2015: NATO military exercise in Bulgaria => joint by helicopter, tank and armor persennel (NBC News)

• April 21/22 NATO military exercise in Baltic on Air-space

• April 2015: NATO military in Romania• March 2015: US start to deploy 3,000 military

personnel to Baltic countries ( Latvia, Lithuania & Estonia). (Rueter)

Thank You