uk industry standard for sub-national areas
DESCRIPTION
The Derived Forecasts module of the POPGROUP software Ludi Simpson, University of Manchester BSPS day meeting on household projection models, 16 th July 2012, LSE. UK industry standard for sub-national areas. An integrated demographic model for planning and research - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
POPGROUP
Slide 1
The Derived Forecasts module of the POPGROUP
software
Ludi Simpson, University of ManchesterBSPS day meeting on household
projection models, 16th July 2012, LSE
POPGROUP
Slide 2
UK industry standard for sub-national areas
• An integrated demographic model for planning and research– population, households, labour force, disability, …– local and central government information– small area and District,– District, County/Region/National– a demographic framework, data to fill it, and an
analysis tool– historical series and new census data– estimates and forecasts– official projections and user’s own scenarios• Excel platform
POPGROUP
Slide 3
POPGROUP users 2012
90+ organisations• Mainly UK public sector• Welsh Assembly for LA
projections• Scottish User Group
supported by NRS• Educational license: free
for teaching• Commercial sector use
growing: the industry standard for UK local planning
Local authorities
POPGROUP
Slide 4
Popgroup management
• Developed collaboratively– Origins: 6 local authorities co-funded in 1999– Ownership: Local Government Association since 2009– £1500 POPGROUP, £1500 Derived Forecasts, one-off price
• Data Modules £450 a year, replicate official projections– Programming and technical support
• [email protected]• Ludi Simpson technical specification / support
– Steering Committee – users, and Wales/Scotland reps, • Andrew Rudd [email protected]
– Independent user group• Charlotte Devereux [email protected]
– Web site and email discussion list, http://www.ccsr.ac.uk/popgroup/ – Training – online, 2-day annual course, manuals
POPGROUP
Slide 5
POPGROUP & policy scenarios
Population Households
Labour force
- Not in households
x Headship rates
x Activity rates Revised migration Compare with
housing supply
Sharing, Vacancy rates, Second homes, Housing land
Compare with jobs supply
Unemployment, Commuting, Jobs creation
POPGROUP
Slide 6
Presentation
Demographic framework• POPGROUP population forecasts framework• Derived Forecasts framework
– UK household projections frameworks• Demonstration of Derived Forecasts model setupData and analysis• Demonstration of a household projections Data Module• Demonstration of reports from a household projection• Demonstration of a housing-led population forecast
POPGROUP
Slide 7
POPGROUP population forecasts framework
• Standard cohort component methodology– Single year of age, to 90+– Gross migration with two external areas– Schedules of births, deaths, migration may change over time– Special populations can be separate, eg Armed Forces
• Projection of multiple ‘Groups’, named by user– Districts in a Region, national areas, small areas within a
district, ethnic groups within a district
• Accepts counts and rates, estimating the missing items– Counts take precedence: initial rates are re-estimated: – Time series of past data and forecasts– ‘Forecasts’ with past population provide estimated rates and
migration flows
POPGROUP
Slide 8
Derived Forecasts framework
Households = Population (adjusted to deduct those not in households) * age-sex-specific headship rate (for each household type)
In defence of the ‘headship rates’ approach• Household types can include size of household (Scotland, Wales)• ‘Head’ can be a reference person, independent of changing
cultural norms (England, Wales, Scotland)• The same approach can use ‘membership rates’ in which non-
heads are included in the output (Wales)– The number of households is derived by dividing by the
number of people in a household type by its household size
POPGROUP
Slide 9
Derived Forecasts framework
Derived unit Adjustment to population
Categories Rate Factor
Household (England)
Communal establishments
17 household types
Household representative
-
Household (Wales)
Communal establishments
12, HH size included to 5+
Household membership
Household size
Household (Scotland)
Communal establishments
7, HH size included to 3+
Household representative
-
Labour force None Economically active
Economic activity
-
Disability None Motor, sight, … Disability rate -
…
POPGROUP
Slide 10
Derived Forecasts framework
D =Derived Category Forecast
P =Population ‘at risk’ Forecast
R =Derived Category Rates
a = age-groups = sexu = Sub-populationy = yeard = derived categoryg = group (usually an area, but can be an ethnic
group or social group)
D a,s,u,y,d,g = P a,s,u,y,g * R a,s,u,y,d,g / 100
Population ForecastPopulation forecast by age and sex
Population Forecastby age and sex
Derived Category RatesBy age and sex
(e.g. headship rates, disability rates)
Derived Category ForecastForecast for Derived Categories
(e.g. Households, disability)
POPGROUP
Slide 11
Derived Forecasts – Model SetupPOPGROUP Derived ForecastsModel Selections
Model Type Base Year
CLG 2008 Household
Choose a set of Age / Sex groups Choose type of Derived Unit rates
Label for Age / Sex groups is… Label for Derived Unit rates is…CLG 2008 Household CLG 2008 Household representatives
Choose Derived Units
Choose a name for the Final Derived Units
Make Population Adjustment . . . . . Label for Derived Units is…
Label for Population Adjustment Households
Not in Households
Adjustment using . . . . .
Adjustment method . . . .
Label for size factor
Use Sub-Populations . . . . . . . . . .
Label for the Sub-Populations Label for Final Derived Units after factors
2001
Validation
Calculations on Derived Units
Age / Sex groups Derived Units
Sub-Populations
Population Adjustment
Value of each rate
Sum across categories
Modif y Age / Sex groups
Modif y categories
Back Run Setup
0 or +ve From 0 - 1 No Limit
Sum to 1
Yes No
Yes No
1 or Less No Limit
View View
Divide Multiply None
Households
CLG 2008 Household CLG 2008 Household representatives
Add Subtract
% Number Mix
Mix
Modif y
POPGROUP
Slide 12
POPGROUP
Slide 13
POPGROUP
Slide 14
POPGROUP
Slide 15
Derived Forecasts Summary Report 2010-based household projections
Households - All Persons - All Ages
Glasgow and Clyde ValleyCategory of Households 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20191 adult male 139,250 141,758 145,385 148,998 152,457 155,783 159,076 162,438 165,651 168,7411 adult female 171,075 172,910 176,259 179,571 182,776 185,750 188,737 191,934 194,977 197,9202 adults 213,238 214,177 216,708 219,212 221,609 223,808 226,002 228,305 230,375 232,3471 adult, 1 child 42,404 43,210 44,344 45,428 46,418 47,341 48,248 49,174 50,054 50,9371 adult, 2+ children 27,144 27,314 27,656 28,028 28,408 28,831 29,258 29,727 30,195 30,6232+ adults, 1+ children 139,321 136,278 133,740 131,318 128,862 126,707 124,560 122,252 120,094 117,9503+ adults 67,996 67,067 66,539 65,931 65,267 64,510 63,635 62,646 61,584 60,469
Total 800,428 802,715 810,631 818,485 825,797 832,730 839,517 846,476 852,930 858,988
Private household population 1,739,793 1,744,311 1,749,414 1,754,388 1,758,951 1,762,841 1,766,494 1,770,079 1,773,552 1,776,778Population / Households 2.17 2.17 2.16 2.14 2.13 2.12 2.10 2.09 2.08 2.07
East Dunbartonshire Category of Households 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20191 adult male 4,491 4,584 4,680 4,776 4,871 4,967 5,062 5,150 5,241 5,3351 adult female 8,160 8,286 8,434 8,575 8,721 8,859 8,985 9,143 9,287 9,4232 adults 13,891 14,073 14,272 14,480 14,678 14,873 15,060 15,245 15,421 15,5871 adult, 1 child 1,267 1,297 1,323 1,348 1,373 1,397 1,425 1,451 1,479 1,5071 adult, 2+ children 933 940 944 950 956 964 975 983 994 1,0092+ adults, 1+ children 9,783 9,550 9,301 9,044 8,799 8,576 8,358 8,122 7,899 7,7003+ adults 4,486 4,440 4,401 4,349 4,290 4,229 4,151 4,066 3,969 3,861
Decomposition of Change
2010 - 2025Population
EffectRate Effect Change
Glasgow and Clyde Valley 52,284 38,467 90,751
East Dunbartonshire 1,252 680 1,932East Renfrewshire 1,845 214 2,060Glasgow City 29,492 19,702 49,194Inverclyde -1,788 1,236 -552North Lanarkshire 7,836 6,860 14,696Renfrewshire 2,532 2,804 5,336South Lanarkshire 11,139 5,378 16,517West Dunbartonshire -24 1,592 1,568
POPGROUP
Slide 16
POPGROUP
Slide 17
Using DF within POPGROUP
cons.xls
DFSupply.xls
POPGROUP
Slide 18
The impact on population of a housing plan
POPGROUP
Slide 19
DF - comparison of scenarios
Example: LeedsHousehold impact of alternative population forecasts
DFCompare.xls
Hou
seho
lds
300,000
320,000
340,000
360,000
380,000
400,000
420,000
440,000
460,000
480,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Migration-ledMigration-led revisedNatural ChangeSNPP 2008
PopGroup All
Category: Total
Year
Proj_ID
POPGROUP
Slide 21
Observations
• POPGROUP – aims to satisfy local planning needs– replicates official ‘trend’ projections– is not restricted to any time or place– does not (yet) support projection of rates from a past time series
• Relies on work external to model– encourages users’ own policy-led scenarios and alternative
demographic assumptions