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UK Future Energy Scenarios UK Future Energy Scenarios Robyn Jenkins May 2012

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UK Future Energy ScenariosUK Future Energy Scenarios

Robyn JenkinsMay 2012

The UK energy landscape is changing

SustainabilityExisting power station lclosures

~25%Affordability

of total capacity by 2020

Gas from UK sources

~25%of total supplies by 2020

Security of supply

2

The need for change

2010 2020 20502010 2020 2050

No renewable target15% of energy from

renewablesNo renewable target

80% reduction in CO2emissions vs 1990

34% reduction in CO2emissions vs 1990

22% reduction in CO2emissions vs 1990

Electricity% of end use energy 15%

Carbon intensity(kgCO2/MWh) 499

% of end use energy ~20%

Carbon intensity(kgCO2/MWh) ~200

% of end use energy ~50%

Carbon intensity(kgCO2/MWh) ~15

Gas% of end use energy 42%

Carbon intensity(kgCO2/MWh) 184

% of end use energy ~40%

Carbon intensity(kgCO2/MWh) 184

% of end use energy ~35%

Carbon intensity(kgCO2/MWh) 184

Oil% of end use energy 43%

Carbon intensity(k CO /MWh) 247

% of end use energy ~40%

Carbon intensity(k CO /MWh) 247

% of end use energy ~15%

Carbon intensity(k CO /MWh) 247

3

(kgCO2/MWh) 247 (kgCO2/MWh) 247 (kgCO2/MWh) 247

End use oil & gas excludes oil and gas used in power generation

The future: efficiency, decarbonisationand electrification

TransportElectricity Heat p

Efficiency and innovationInsulate and reduceSmart Meters &

Appliance efficiency

new homes & retrofit

Heat pump

Decarbonised electricityand decarbonisetransportnew homes & retrofitDecarbonised electricity… transport

Biomethane

CNG

Gas backup& embedded

ti

4

De-carbonise heatCNGgeneration

Our scenarios

O i Electricity generation capacity (GW)

125

150

Our scenarios are designed to explore a range of possible outcomes

Electric cars (m)

10

15

100

Gone Green:Renewable and carbon targets are hit

Slow Progression:

5

752010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Slow Progression:2020 targets are not hit until after 2025

Accelerated G th*

02010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Domestic heat pumps (m) Annual gas demand (TWh)Growth*:Faster deployment of offshore wind than in Gone Green 10

15

600

800

1,000

1,200

0

5

0

200

400

600

5* Accelerated Growth only varies from Gone Green in the mix of power generation –all other variables e.g. demand, EV’s, heat pumps etc are the same as for Gone Green.

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Gone Green: some key themes

2030 target

2020 targets 15% of energy from

renewables 37% reduction in CO2

2050 target 80% reduction in CO2

2030 target 60% reduction in CO2

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

37% reduction in CO2

Generation mix is radically ‘overhauled’

Transmission is a key enabler – connecting & balancing new, diverse sources of energy

Electricity demand increases, driven by electric cars & heat pumps; gas demand declines

Distribution network capacity significantly increases

Carbon Capture & Storage is deployed at significant scale Significant technology uncertainty, ‘disruptors’ may emerge

80% d ti i CO2 i hi d

6

80% reduction in CO2 is achieved Consumer energy behaviour is unrecognisable from today

Are the 2020 targets achievable?

2020 Transmission connected renewable generation (GW)

Gone Green target

Contracted

Currently connected

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

127 projects at an average of 306MW each

78 average projects required (a 60% conversion rate)

2020 renewables target is challenging but achievable

7Data source: National Grid TNQCU – November 2011; National Grid 2011 SYS. Connected renewable generation excludes pumped storage.

2020 renewables target is challenging, but achievable

A line of sight to achievingthe 2020 renewables target

2020 Transmission connected renewable generation (GW)

Gone Green target

Contracted

Currently connected

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Under construction

Awaiting consents

Consents approved

Scoping

2020 renewables target is challenging but achievable

8Data source: National Grid TNQCU – November 2011; National Grid 2011 SYS. Connected renewable generation excludes pumped storage.

2020 renewables target is challenging, but achievable

A line of sight to achievingthe 2020 renewables target

2020 Transmission connected renewable generation (GW)

Gone Green targetTidal Wave

Contracted

Currently connected

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45Biomass

Onshore wind

Woodchip Offshore wind

Securing offshore wind particularly round 3 is critical

9Data source: National Grid TNQCU – November 2011; National Grid 2011 SYS. Connected renewable generation excludes pumped storage.

Securing offshore wind, particularly round 3, is critical

Where will our gas come from?

Sources of gas Day to day variability

100%

Sources of gaschange significantly

Day to day variabilitycould increase

100%

80% 80%

40%

60%

40%

60%

0%

20%

0%

20%

0%2010/11 2020/21

UKCS Norway LNGContinent Unconventional

0%Avg. Sep. 2010 Avg. Dec. 2010

UKCS Norway LNGContinent Unconventional Storage

10

Continent Unconventional Continent Unconventional Storage

The transmission delivery challenge

i ti l t i it t kexisting electricity network

potential wind farm sites

potential nuclear sites

interconnectors

Norway

Netherlands

Ireland

Belgium

11

France

France