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The UK energy landscape is changing
SustainabilityExisting power station lclosures
~25%Affordability
of total capacity by 2020
Gas from UK sources
~25%of total supplies by 2020
Security of supply
2
The need for change
2010 2020 20502010 2020 2050
No renewable target15% of energy from
renewablesNo renewable target
80% reduction in CO2emissions vs 1990
34% reduction in CO2emissions vs 1990
22% reduction in CO2emissions vs 1990
Electricity% of end use energy 15%
Carbon intensity(kgCO2/MWh) 499
% of end use energy ~20%
Carbon intensity(kgCO2/MWh) ~200
% of end use energy ~50%
Carbon intensity(kgCO2/MWh) ~15
Gas% of end use energy 42%
Carbon intensity(kgCO2/MWh) 184
% of end use energy ~40%
Carbon intensity(kgCO2/MWh) 184
% of end use energy ~35%
Carbon intensity(kgCO2/MWh) 184
Oil% of end use energy 43%
Carbon intensity(k CO /MWh) 247
% of end use energy ~40%
Carbon intensity(k CO /MWh) 247
% of end use energy ~15%
Carbon intensity(k CO /MWh) 247
3
(kgCO2/MWh) 247 (kgCO2/MWh) 247 (kgCO2/MWh) 247
End use oil & gas excludes oil and gas used in power generation
The future: efficiency, decarbonisationand electrification
TransportElectricity Heat p
Efficiency and innovationInsulate and reduceSmart Meters &
Appliance efficiency
new homes & retrofit
Heat pump
Decarbonised electricityand decarbonisetransportnew homes & retrofitDecarbonised electricity… transport
Biomethane
CNG
Gas backup& embedded
ti
4
De-carbonise heatCNGgeneration
Our scenarios
O i Electricity generation capacity (GW)
125
150
Our scenarios are designed to explore a range of possible outcomes
Electric cars (m)
10
15
100
Gone Green:Renewable and carbon targets are hit
Slow Progression:
5
752010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Slow Progression:2020 targets are not hit until after 2025
Accelerated G th*
02010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Domestic heat pumps (m) Annual gas demand (TWh)Growth*:Faster deployment of offshore wind than in Gone Green 10
15
600
800
1,000
1,200
0
5
0
200
400
600
5* Accelerated Growth only varies from Gone Green in the mix of power generation –all other variables e.g. demand, EV’s, heat pumps etc are the same as for Gone Green.
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Gone Green: some key themes
2030 target
2020 targets 15% of energy from
renewables 37% reduction in CO2
2050 target 80% reduction in CO2
2030 target 60% reduction in CO2
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
37% reduction in CO2
Generation mix is radically ‘overhauled’
Transmission is a key enabler – connecting & balancing new, diverse sources of energy
Electricity demand increases, driven by electric cars & heat pumps; gas demand declines
Distribution network capacity significantly increases
Carbon Capture & Storage is deployed at significant scale Significant technology uncertainty, ‘disruptors’ may emerge
80% d ti i CO2 i hi d
6
80% reduction in CO2 is achieved Consumer energy behaviour is unrecognisable from today
Are the 2020 targets achievable?
2020 Transmission connected renewable generation (GW)
Gone Green target
Contracted
Currently connected
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
127 projects at an average of 306MW each
78 average projects required (a 60% conversion rate)
2020 renewables target is challenging but achievable
7Data source: National Grid TNQCU – November 2011; National Grid 2011 SYS. Connected renewable generation excludes pumped storage.
2020 renewables target is challenging, but achievable
A line of sight to achievingthe 2020 renewables target
2020 Transmission connected renewable generation (GW)
Gone Green target
Contracted
Currently connected
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Under construction
Awaiting consents
Consents approved
Scoping
2020 renewables target is challenging but achievable
8Data source: National Grid TNQCU – November 2011; National Grid 2011 SYS. Connected renewable generation excludes pumped storage.
2020 renewables target is challenging, but achievable
A line of sight to achievingthe 2020 renewables target
2020 Transmission connected renewable generation (GW)
Gone Green targetTidal Wave
Contracted
Currently connected
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45Biomass
Onshore wind
Woodchip Offshore wind
Securing offshore wind particularly round 3 is critical
9Data source: National Grid TNQCU – November 2011; National Grid 2011 SYS. Connected renewable generation excludes pumped storage.
Securing offshore wind, particularly round 3, is critical
Where will our gas come from?
Sources of gas Day to day variability
100%
Sources of gaschange significantly
Day to day variabilitycould increase
100%
80% 80%
40%
60%
40%
60%
0%
20%
0%
20%
0%2010/11 2020/21
UKCS Norway LNGContinent Unconventional
0%Avg. Sep. 2010 Avg. Dec. 2010
UKCS Norway LNGContinent Unconventional Storage
10
Continent Unconventional Continent Unconventional Storage