Truce or transformation?

Duncan Morrow

Community Relations Council

Northern Ireland

Unionist/Protestant

65%---55%

Nationalist/Catholic

35%-45%

Loyalist

Resistance

A state of antagonismA state of antagonism

• Different experiences of the state. law and justiceDifferent experiences of the state. law and justice

• Fear is rational, defining the limits of trust, the requirement to resist Fear is rational, defining the limits of trust, the requirement to resist and the discourse of politicsand the discourse of politics

• Separation (institutional, social and physical) – structured by fear, Separation (institutional, social and physical) – structured by fear, generating solidarity and structuring memory and meaninggenerating solidarity and structuring memory and meaning

• Culture as antagonism – religion, sport, symbolsCulture as antagonism – religion, sport, symbols

• Collapse of critical categories: Crime, violence, democracy, rule of law Collapse of critical categories: Crime, violence, democracy, rule of law (including HR), citizenship, equality(including HR), citizenship, equality

• The ‘community’ as the locus social cohesion, not the state nor the The ‘community’ as the locus social cohesion, not the state nor the personperson

• Failure of class and economics to penetrate politicsFailure of class and economics to penetrate politics

Unionist Nationalist

‘‘HomelandHomeland Security’ and the need for defence justify the removal of rights and Security’ and the need for defence justify the removal of rights and segregation, especially in housing and education.segregation, especially in housing and education.

Paramilitary formationsParamilitary formations emerge understanding themselves as defensive forces. emerge understanding themselves as defensive forces.

Because ‘Because ‘they’they’ are the cause, political progress requires are the cause, political progress requires ‘them’‘them’ to change to change

Peace with the ‘evil’ enemy is easily equated with Peace with the ‘evil’ enemy is easily equated with ININjustice.justice.

Unionist

Nationalist

Sinn Fein

Unionist

USA

EU

Core Values:

Consent,

Equality and

Human Rights

Bridging Social Capital

Purely political means Rule of Law

Power-sharing

Loyal

Disloyal

1.7m

Unionist Nationalist

TheyThey used to be the problemused to be the problem

NowNow They They are our permanent partnerare our permanent partner

‘‘

The politics of paradox

Truce or transformation?

Unionist Nationalist

Violence is contained Violence is contained Suspicion and fear underpin social choicesSuspicion and fear underpin social choices

Antagonism structures communityAntagonism structures community Partnership is built-in to politicsPartnership is built-in to politics

Sharing is ‘the new black’Sharing is ‘the new black’Sharing is nobody’s aspirationSharing is nobody’s aspiration

Peace and Justice must be pursued togetherPeace and Justice must be pursued togetherJustice requires punishing the guiltyJustice requires punishing the guilty

‘‘

% believing that relations between % believing that relations between Protestants and Catholics are better now than Protestants and Catholics are better now than

5 years ago (NILTS)5 years ago (NILTS)

0102030405060708090

100

1989

1991

1993

1994

1995

1996

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Year

pe

r c

en

t

Protestant Catholic No religion

% believing that relations between % believing that relations between Protestants and Catholics will be better in 5 Protestants and Catholics will be better in 5

years time(NILTS)years time(NILTS)

0102030405060708090

100

1989

1991

1993

1994

1995

1996

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Year

pe

r c

en

t

Protestant Catholic No religion

Overlap between nationality and religion (NILTS 2007)

Catholic

Protestant

Other All

British 4 33 2 39

Irish 26 2 <1 29

NI 10 14 1 25

Other 2 4 1 7

% saying they would prefer to live in a % saying they would prefer to live in a mixed-religion neighbourhood (NILTS)mixed-religion neighbourhood (NILTS)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Year

pe

r c

en

t

Protestant Catholic No religion

% saying they would prefer to send their % saying they would prefer to send their children to a mixed-religion school (NILTS)children to a mixed-religion school (NILTS)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1989

1991

1993

1995

1996

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Year

pe

r c

en

t

Protestant Catholic No religion

The costs of antagonismThe costs of antagonism

Antagonism is about everything= policy Antagonism is about everything= policy paralysisparalysis

Endemic paramilitarism – security above allEndemic paramilitarism – security above all Deterrence of investment and migrationDeterrence of investment and migration Duplication of servicesDuplication of services Distorted labour marketsDistorted labour markets Disruption of tourismDisruption of tourism Poverty and violencePoverty and violence Quality of lifeQuality of life

Challenges to change

•Politics

•The limits of political commitment

•A culture of political opposition

•The risks of serious leadership in public policy

•The weakness of the state – control of territory

•Economics

•Vested interest in segregation

•Paramilitarism and segregation as economics

•Scale and scope

•Culture

•Antagonism as our culture

Determinants of changeDeterminants of change

International political International political pressure/assistancepressure/assistance

Economics of partnershipEconomics of partnership There is no alternativeThere is no alternative Leadership and riskLeadership and risk Deliberate Shared Space – Utility, Deliberate Shared Space – Utility,

Location, Design and ManagementLocation, Design and Management Education and YouthworkEducation and Youthwork

Sources of Change

• Post-holocaust Europe – violence and integration

• Travel and technology – globalisation

• Migration and economics

From poverty and emigration to wealth and immigration and back again

Migration

More Muslims than Methodists

• Social Cohesion and integration across Europe

Interventions for change

• Shared Institutions – Politics, Local Government, Police, Integrated Schools Umbrella Groups (NICVA, RCN).

• Projects of Common Interest – Childcare,

Social Enterprise, City Centre Management

• Chequebook Partnership – PEACE, Government

• Promoting Bridging Capital - IFI, EU, CRC

Targeting Division in practice

• Engaging core institutions – Trade Unions, Churches, Sport, Arts

• Hard to reach groups

• Third party mediation capacity

• Difficult conversations – democracy, justice and freedom

• Conflict Management - crisis intervention and high risk engagement

• Victims work

• Residential capacity

• Leadership Development

• Resources Development

Opportunities for influence

•Models of Practice

•Partnership

•Rule of Law

•Policy Advocacy

•Research and Publications

•Resource Development

•Events

The past obstructs the future

Ongoing segregation

Paramilitary structuresThe weakness of shared aspiration

The challenge to consociation – the The challenge to consociation – the road to equality is not an equal road to equality is not an equal oneone

• How do political parties deliver to ’the others’ without How do political parties deliver to ’the others’ without damaging their own voter base?damaging their own voter base?

• Equality will require diverse solutions - Change has Equality will require diverse solutions - Change has emphasised the difference between loyalist and nationalist emphasised the difference between loyalist and nationalist communities not generated similarity.communities not generated similarity.

• Good Relations does not mean instant harmony – rather it Good Relations does not mean instant harmony – rather it means developing a culture which can debate and decide means developing a culture which can debate and decide these issues honestly, on the basis of evidence not political these issues honestly, on the basis of evidence not political allegiance. allegiance.

January 2003: Launch of Consultation

September 2003: Over 10,000 people respond

January 2004: Clear preference for increased government commitment

March 2005: Launch of Strategy document

September 2007: Dead on arrival?

Programme for Government

• commitment to ‘a shared and better future’ – 14 times within the document

• contained within the First and Deputy First Minister’s foreword

• part of Minister’s launch of budget 2008-11

Truce to transformationTruce to transformation

• The acceptable level of divisionThe acceptable level of division

• War guilt and reconciliationWar guilt and reconciliation

• Imagining the scale of changeImagining the scale of change

• Plausibility and desirabilityPlausibility and desirability

• International audience versus International audience versus political basepolitical base

• The impossibility of failureThe impossibility of failure