4/3/11

1

Caribbean Animal Welfare Conference

San Juan Puerto Rico 4 April 2011

Iceland Volcano, April 2010

Trends in Disasters

International Fund for Animal Welfare

Emergency Relief Manager – Disasters

Dick Green, Ed.D.

“Dramatic Increase in Disasters”

•  Population growth •  Urbanization •  Environmental fragility •  Move toward coastal areas •  Global climate

change

10 Tropical storms 5 Earthquake 2 Landslides

2 Tsunami 4 Volcanoes

8 Floods 6 Fires

Zun Dao, 2008

4/3/11

2

Number of people affected by disasters quadrupled from 1975–84 to 1996–2005

Top Ten Countries Since 2000

1.  China 6.46% 2.  USA 5.55% 3.  India 4.19% 4.  Indonesia 3.31% 5.  Philippines 2.33% 6.  Russia 2.30% 7.  Afghanistan 2.11% 8.  Bangladesh 1.98% 9.  Viet Nam 1.83% 10.  Pakistan, Australia, 1.58%

Zaire

¼ of all disasters

•  .

4/3/11

3

1976 - China earthquake

1983 - Africa Drought

1991 - Bangladesh cyclone

1981 - Mozambique drought

2005 - Pakistan earthquake

2004 – Asia tsunami

2008 – China/ Myanmar

2010 Haiti

Number of People Killed by Natural Disasters: 1975-2010

Num

ber o

f peo

ple

repo

rted

kille

d

Num

ber o

f peo

ple

repo

rted

affe

cted

Natural disaster summary 1975 - 2008

Most Prevalent Types of Disasters Since 2000

1.  Floods 37.30% 2.  Windstorms 22.09% 3.  Epidemic 14.56% 4.  Earthquake 6.55% 5.  Extreme Temperatures 4.95% 6.  Drought 4.47% 7.  Slides 4.32% 8.  Wildfires 3.40% 9.  Volcano 1.32% 10. Wave/surge 0.54%

Nearly 60%

4/3/11

4

Wind Storms

Floods

Windstorms

Floods and windstorm disasters are increasing in frequency

Disaster occurrence by type: 1972 - 2005

Num

ber o

f eve

nts

2008

One of the biggest years ever in terms of impact

Chi

na

Iow

a, U

.S.

Myanmar Hurricanes Gustav and Ike, U.S.

2008 Disasters - Deaths

Cyclone Nargis Myanmar 138,366 Earthquake China 87,476

Flood (Jun-Aug) India 1963 Extreme winter Afghanistan 1317

Typhoon Philippines 644 Hurricane Haiti 529 Mudslides China 277

Flood Yemen 180 Flood China 176

Flood (Sep) India 173

4/3/11

5

2008 Economic Impact Billions USD

1.  China Earthquake 85 2.  Hurricane Ike – US 30 3.  China extreme winter 21 4.  Midwest floods – US 10 5.  Gustav – US 7 6.  Nargis – Myanmar 4 7.  Gustav – Cuba 3 8.  Wildfires – US 2 9.  China flood 2 10.  Tornadoes – US 2

China 65% U.S. 31%

2009 •  Relatively good year for

developing countries •  860 disasters, 110 more than

2008 (15%) –  4th highest in the last 30 years

•  92% weather-related –  82% in 2008

•  42% storms, 38% were floods •  Economic losses totaled ~

$50B lowest since 2001 –  “…losses due to severe weather

in areas with a high prevalence of insurance.”

29% North America

34% Asia

111 countries with Declared Natural Disasters (2009)

18 countries accounted for: – 79.0% deaths – 95.1% victims – 86.7% economic

damages

4/3/11

6

2010: The Year of the Volcano (and earthquake and hurricane and…)

RSPCA – April 2010

More volcanoes, earthquakes and tsunamis?

2010

Deadliest year in last two decades – 373 natural disasters killed over 296,800

people, affecting nearly 208 million others and costing nearly US$110 billion1 •  12 January earthquake in Haiti, 222,500 people •  Russian heat wave - 56,000 people

1 Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED).

4/3/11

7

Haiti 11 January 2010

•  80% lived below poverty line; 54% lived in abject poverty.

•  3rd hungriest country, after Somalia & Afghanistan.

•  One in every 18 to 30 people died.

•  In 2009, UN fed 1M in PaP. In 2010: 2.5M

Disaster trends for 2010

•  For the first time, the Americas headed the list of the world’s worst affected continents – 75 % of total deaths caused a single event -

Haiti earthquake. •  Europe follows, accounting for nearly a

fifth of year’s total deaths – – Russian heat wave.

Asia – Still a “hotbed” for disasters

•  4.7 % of total mortality •  Highest affected continent

– 89 % of all people affected by disasters in 2010 lived in Asia •  Earthquake in China (Apr) - 2,968 people •  Earthquake in Indonesia (Oct) - 530 people •  Floods in Indonesia (Summer) - 1,691 people •  Mudslides in Indonesia (Aug) - 1,765 people •  Floods in Pakistan (Jul/Aug) - 2,000 people

4/3/11

8

2011: Look out!

•  Brazil Floods •  North American blizzard •  Christchurch earthquake •  Australia

– Queensland floods – Cyclone Yasi

•  Middle East •  Japan earthquake and tsunami

2011 Hurricane Season

•  We foresee an above-average Atlantic basin tropical cyclone season in 2011 and anticipate an above-average probability of U.S. and Caribbean major hurricane landfall.

4/3/11

9

PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST 1 CAT 3-5 HURRICANE MAKING LANDFALL ON:

•  Entire U.S. coastline - 73% (average for last century is 52%)

•  U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 49% (average for last century is 31%)

•  Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 48% (average for last century is 30%)

•  TRACKING INTO THE CARIBBEAN - 62% (average for last century is 42%)

Japan Earthquake/Tsunami 11 Mar 2011

4/3/11

10

4/3/11

11

Anomaly or Trend? •  “These figures are bad, but could be seen as benign in

years to come.”

–  Unless we act now, we will see more and more disasters due to unplanned urbanization and environmental degradation.

–  Weather-related disasters are sure to rise in the future, due to factors that include climate change. 2

–  Moderate to strong La Niña conditions well-established in the equatorial Pacific Ocean - likely to continue at least until the first quarter of 20113

2 M. Wahlström, Rep of UN Secretary General for Disaster Risk Reduction 3 World Meteorological Organization

Good People Data

•  What do we know about impact of disasters on animals?

Texas, 2006

4/3/11

12

Livestock •  Bangladesh, Sidr (07) – 540,000

livestock •  Burma, Cyclone Nargis (08) -

estimated 120,000 water buffaloes and draught animals

•  China (08) - over 3m pigs, up to 70% of livestock - total of 12.5M animals died. $2B

•  U.S., Hurricane Katrina/Rita (05) - 35,000 cattle, 6m chicken

•  U.S., Hurricane Floyd (99) - Almost 3M chickens/turkeys, 30,000 hogs.

Bonus Question

How Do Wildlife Fare During/Following a

Disaster?

4/3/11

13

Wildlife •  Census Data is unreliable in many areas •  Carcass counting/identification is difficult

Earthquakes Volcanoes Windstorms Drought Floods Fires

Australia fires, 2008

What We Do Know •  There are “hot spots” in the world •  Disasters are occurring more frequently and with

greater impact •  Floods, windstorms, and likely fires are occurring

even more frequently than other types •  Disaster preparedness and risk reduction is a

much better investment than response •  Collaborative/Coalition approach to disaster

response is much more effective in terms of resource management and animals “saved”

Thank You!

4/3/11

14

Cost •  Chile earthquake (Feb) -

US$30 B •  China - Floods and

landslides (summer) US$18 B

•  Pakistan floods US$9.5 B •  Haiti earthquake US$8 B

•  Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma (US - 2005) -US$139 B

•  Sichuan earthquake In (2008) - $86 B

•  2008 - US$200 B