transport - move towards sustainability

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Transport - Move towards sustainability S. Sundar Distinguished Fellow, TERI HUDCO Chair Professor, TERI University, 5 th Feb 2014 1

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Transport - Move towards sustainability. S. Sundar Distinguished Fellow, TERI HUDCO Chair Professor, TERI University, 5 th Feb 2014. Key trends: Growth in freight traffic. % Share (NTKM) * Road = 50.12% Rail = 36.06% Coastal shipping = 6.8% Pipeline = 7.48% IWT = 0.24% - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Transport - Move towards sustainability

Transport - Move towards sustainability

S. SundarDistinguished Fellow, TERI

HUDCO Chair Professor, TERI University,

5th Feb 2014

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Page 2: Transport - Move towards sustainability

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Key trends: Growth in freight traffic

Continuous erosion in the share of Railways in freight movement and increase in share of less fuel efficient road transport

Road transport is the most dominant mode of transport with over 50% of the freight Length of cross-country crude oil pipelines in India : 5889 km(2010) Total product pipelines (including LPG pipelines) - 12 925 km, with a capacity of 72 MT

*Modal share in total freight traffic as of 2007-08, source: RITES Total Transport Study; #Compiled from 11th Five Year Plan Working Group Report on Road Transport and RITES Total Transport Study

% Share (NTKM)*

Road = 50.12%

Rail = 36.06%

Coastal shipping = 6.8%

Pipeline = 7.48%

IWT = 0.24%

Airways = 0.02%

Increasing share of road

Increasing share of road

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Key trends: Growth in passenger traffic

Substantial shift from rail to road Rail dominates long-haul Road dominates short-haul

Road transport is the most dominant mode of transport. Almost 90% passengers moved by road in 2010-11

Air based passenger transport has seen a rapid growth in the last decade

% Share (BPKM)*

Road = 86.7%

Rail = 12.9%

Air= 0.4%

*Modal share in total passenger traffic as of 2007-08 compiled from 11 th Five Year Plan Working Group Report on Road Transport and Statistical Summary – Indian Railways

Increasing share of road

Increasing share of road

Page 4: Transport - Move towards sustainability

BAU passenger growth trends expected to continue in future

• Rapid increase in passenger Rapid increase in passenger transport demand expectedtransport demand expected

Source: Estimates by TERI (2009)Source: Estimates by TERI (2009)Estimates are in the medium range as compared to many other estimatesEstimates are in the medium range as compared to many other estimates

2010 to 20302010 to 2030 3 times increase 3 times increase

2010 to 20502010 to 2050 7 times increase 7 times increase

70%70%

80%80%• Road sector’s dominance to Road sector’s dominance to

continue in BAUcontinue in BAU

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Urban Transport

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Current Scenario–Urban Transport

Population growth and rapid urbanization; more and bigger cities

38% of India’s total population to live in cities by 2025 53 million plus cities now; 85 million plus cities by 2025 and 125 by 2050. Most million plus cities are urban sprawls leading to increase in travel demand

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Declining share of public transport

Public transport accounts for 30-55% in the four large metropolis

Public transport share in cities having a population of more than 0.8 million was in the range of 60% to 80% in 1994; this has now declined to 35% to 55%

Arrest the decline in public transport and increase its share to 50%

Introduce public transport in second-order cities Promote informal transport

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Page 8: Transport - Move towards sustainability

Non-motorised transport also declining Lack of infrastructure for non-motorized transport and the increasing

trip lengths due to the horizontal expansion of cities have affected pedestrians, cyclists and other non-motorized transport users in cities

Share of NMT, though high in cities, is declining as cities grow Maintain and increase the share of NMT

Mode share in Indian cities

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Rapid motorization

About 1/3rd of the total vehicles in 35 million +cities Second tier cities show greater increase in vehicle population

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Energy implications

The transport sector accounted for 27% (98 mtoe), next only to industry sector, of the total commercial energy consumed in the country*

The transport sector had the largest share in consumption of diesel (~70%) and petrol (~95%)#

Petrol and diesel constitute 20% and 78%, respectively of the fuel consumed by the transport sector; the remaining 2% consists of CNG, LPG, and electricity

In a BAU scenario, energy consumption is likely to increase by 6 times by 2050; dominated by road transport

Current imports of about 85% of 204 MT of crude oil processed in the country would increase to 90% of 757 mtoe by 2030, compromising India’s energy security

Sources: TERI estimates (2013); #Report of the Expert Group to Advise on Pricing Methodology of Regulated Petroleum Products (2013)

Page 11: Transport - Move towards sustainability

Is the current scenario sustainable?Current scenario:Lack of an integrated policy, targets and strategy to place transport on a low carbon pathFragmented responsibilityLack of inter-modal connectivity and seamless movementPolicies favour the personal automobileCities spend more on infrastructure expansion- creating more space for cars- flyovers, parking lots, expressways, etc.Price distortions and fuel adulteration

Has led to uni-modal growth with excessive dependence on road transport

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Lack of effective emission regulation

– Lack of a formal fuel quality or emissions road map beyond 2010 for new vehicles

– New Auto Fuel Policy Committee set up in 2013 to draw up roadmap up to 2025. The Committee is yet to submit its report

Page 13: Transport - Move towards sustainability

Different standards – one country

One set of standards for air quality across the country Different vehicle emission and fuel quality standards for

20 cities and rest of the country Many other cities are more polluted than the ones

where better quality fuel is presently supplied Dual standards effectively treat the majority of the

citizens in the country as second class citizens Better quality vehicles moving out of 20 cities need to

fill inferior quality fuel with consequences

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Page 14: Transport - Move towards sustainability

For New Vehicles

Introduce better quality fuels and emission standards –

EURO IV across the country by 2015, EURO V by 2017 and

EURO VI by 2019

Move from Indian Driving Cycle towards World Harmonised Test Cycles

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Move from Indian driving cycle to World Harmonized Test Cycles

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And for inuse vehicles

PUC totally unsatisfactory– Poor compliance – Equipment not properly calibrated– Operators not trained– Integrity of testing in doubt

Strengthen existing I&M system for all vehicles, especially for trucks , buses and 3 wheelers

Introduce in-use vehicle management systems based on random COP testing and deterioration factors together with a recall policy

Move to annual re-registration of private vehiclesCurrent regulations require private vehicles to re-register after a

period of 15 years

Formulate a policy for fleet modernization to benefit from better fuels 16

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The sustainable approach

Avoid…the need to travel

Shift…to sustainable modes

Improve…systems, technology and fuels

Approach particularly important for urban areas

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Reduce number of trips or at least rate of growth of number of

tripsReduce length of trips

Two key instruments to do this:Integration of land use and transport in new developments and

retrofitting existing developments Use of information technology (IT) as a substitute for physical

mobility – tele-/e-work and flexi-work hours, e-

governance/shopping/education, etc.

Avoid

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ShiftShift from personal vehicles to public transport and non-motorized

modes Prevent shift from NMT and public transport (PT)

Instruments:Encourage and facilitate NMT with appropriate policies and infrastructure

provision Introduce/enhance public transport capacity as appropriateRegulate/rationalise para transit to supplement PTIntroduce in parallel measures to discourage the routine use and ownership of personal vehicles

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Promote efficient and clean vehicles and fuels

Improve traffic flow, driver behavior,road conditions etc Establish robust inspection and maintenance regimes for all

vehicles, with priority for trucks and busesMove towards a world harmonized testing cycle for Type

Approval testingEncourage the use of alternate fuels and accelerate

introduction of e-vehicles and solar chargingIntroduce intelligent transport systems to reduce congestion and

facilitate smooth flow of traffic

Improve

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Issues in governance

ASI interventions call for close collaboration between Centre and States

States have a major role in Avoid and Shift and also in emission control and air quality management

Section 7 of the Air Act empowers a state to prescribe tighter vehicle emission and fuel quality standards- states should examine the need for more stringent standards in heavily polluted cities

Need unified agencies for transport at national, state and urban level

– All matters pertaining to transport should come under a single umbrella

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Thank you