Transport and Public PolicyAuthor(s): Alan F. WilliamsSource: Area, Vol. 10, No. 1 (1978), pp. 36-37Published by: The Royal Geographical Society (with the Institute of British Geographers)Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/20001278 .

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36 Statistical applications in the spatial sciences

102 ratio variables for the 50,000 plus 1 km grid squares in the 1971 Census. P. J, Taylor and S. Openshaw (Newcastle) then discussed Experiments on the modifiable areal unit problem. After illustrating how a very wide range of correlations, varying from high negative to high positive, can be obtained by simply varying the zones over

which the data are aggregated, they discussed attempts, as yet somewhat unsuccessful, to show a systematic relationship between the types of geographical units used and the range of correlation coefficients which can be produced.

In his concluding remarks J. R. B. King, Secretary of the RSS General Applica tions Section, stated that in his opinion the quantitative geographers seemed to be at least as widely read in the statistical literature, if not more so, than most of the applied statisticians. Clearly, quantitative geographers have taken to heart the exceptionalist criticisms of the 1950s and 60s. However, it was clear that the geographical literature was not widely known by the applied statisticians. The long term value of such a joint conference, and the Group's efforts to develop links with the statisticians, must be to help break down this lack of penetration of geographical research. The task will clearly take many more years and many similar conferences.

Neil Wrigley University of Bristol

Notes

1. The Statistician 23 (1974), 3/4 2. 'Patterns and processes in the plane', Adv. appl. Probab. 8 (1976), 651-8; also Area 8

(1976), 119-20 3. Cliff, A. D. and Ord, J. K. (1975) 'Model building and the analysis of spatial pattern in

human geography', Jl R. statist. Soc. 37B, 297-348 4. The proceedings of the conference are to be published as a book by Pion in 1978.

Transport and public policy

A report on a joint meeting of the IBG Transport Geography Study Group and Section E of the British Association for the Advancement of Science held at the University of Aston in Birmingham, 6-7 September 1977.

The publication of a Green Paper and a White Paper on Transport led to the choice of the theme of transport policy for this meeting. There were over 60 participants, perhaps only half of whom were professional geographers, the remainder being a potentially explosive mixture of planners and pressure group representatives attracted, perhaps, by the prospect of a programme which blended specialist academic approaches with the voice of vested interest.

Thus on the first day, Ian G. Heggie and Peter M. Jones (Transport Studies Unit, University of Oxford) led off on transport themes and government policies, homing in on the evaluation of trunk road schemes in the UK. They reviewed COBA, discussed the procedures used for forecasting traffic and the evaluation of time savings, and out lined the weaknesses in current methods of assessing the environmental effects of urban by-passes. Prof. H. P. White (Salford) then trenchantly reviewed government policies relating to British Rail since the 1968 Transport Act, from-as he claimed ' a Castle in the Air to Both Feet in the Marsh'. He was followed by guest speaker Mr

Shaun Leslie (Chief Economist, British Road Federation) who pointed out that the movement of freight and passengers is dominated by road transport and that this would

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Transport and public policy 37

continue. To the BRF, the White Paper on transport policy had turned out to be a ' watery creature which would not cause more than a ripple on the transport pond'.

By 1980, money spent on roads would be less than in 1977, an amount already at its lowest real level for more than a decade: ' there wasn't even the prospect of an increase in funds when the good times rolled in the 1980s with North Sea Oil'.

This strong political brew was countered in questions and discussions on the first day, and entirely contrasted on the second day by another guest speaker, Dr Leonard Taitz (Chairman of both the Conservation Society and Transport 2000 UK). He was at pains to highlight the detrimental effects of a society run on petrol and rubber without thought for the day when we are bereft of North Sea oil and must painfully rethink: public transport in all its forms could not be allowed to decline in the interim, for in spite of a tangle of grant and subsidy, it offered both social and environmental benefits and the conservation of highly-priced energy.

Between these protagonists, the academics displayed their more technical wares. Peter R. Lee and C. S. Lalwani (Commodity Flows Research Unit, UWIST) discussed the problems of measuring spare capacity in the landward freight-haulage market. Interestingly, they were concerned not only with the ' back-load ' problem in road haulage but also the spare capacity brought about by competition between modes, quoting as an example the M4 motorway and the London-South Wales railway which competed for freight traffic. The theme of car-ownership forecasting earlier introduced by Jones was returned to by M.H.Beilby and M.B.A.Walker (Environmental

Modelling and Survey Unit, University of Birmingham). We urgently needed to refine the forecasting methods of TRRL for a number of reasons, with as much emphasis as possible being placed on the explanation of changes rather than the simple extrapola tion of trends. Mary Benwell (Centre for Transport Studies, Cranfield Institute) changed the pace with a well-worked plea for the development of new techniques for making transport decisions. Specifically, with Harlow New Town as test area, she urged the applicability of more finely-spun measures of accessibility.

There is no doubt that this message struck home to geographers, as did Richard Knowles' clear-cut listing of options for public passenger transport in rural areas. Discussion of his options revealed the wide variation in the nature of rural transport problems from one part of the country to another, with local solutions the best on offer. At this stage in the proceedings, no one could be left in doubt that rising car ownership had both a direct and reciprocal effect upon the availability of public transport. But it was left to David Thorpe (Retail Outlets Research Unit, Manchester

Business School) to remind all of the impact of that rising car ownership. In his em phasis on shopping trip patterns and the spread of superstores and hypermarkets, he led his audience through the full implications of this spread. In the welter of back-up data that he presented, one startling comparative statistic stood out for your reporter: that Great Britain had four genuine out-of-town hypermarkets in 1976 to Germany's 538 and France's 305. A transport-related matter where, to misuse a phrase in the

BRF's News Release at the meeting, the policy makers have not ' surrendered to the more modish attitudes of the day '?

Complementing the main business, the British Association was also offered the now famous ' Watford Gap Revisited ' excursion by Prof. White and Dr J. Appleton (Hull), and a break from British transport problems was provided by Prof. Alastair

Couper (Department of Maritime Studies, UWIST) in an invited evening address on 'The Arab Nations and Shipping Policies'.

The papers and discussions of this meeting are being prepared for publication. The September 1978 meeting of the group will be in Bangor, North Wales on Contrasting transport problems in Gwynnedd: detailed arrangements and call for papers forth coming.

Alan F. Williams University of Birmingham

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