toyota nrc nov2012

Toyota’s Technology Roadmap to Meet the 2017-2025 CAFE Standards

Toyota’s Technology Roadmap to Meet the 2017-2025 CAFE Standards

NRC Presentation

RE: Assessment of Technologies for Improving Fuel Economy of Light-Duty Vehicles – Phase 2

December 3rd 2012

2

Introduction

I. Technical Roadmap through 2021MY

• Pathways to Improve Fuel Efficiency

• 2017-2021MY Compliance Approach

• Summarize Compliance Prospects

II. Prospects beyond 2021MY

• ICE Improvements

• HV Expansion

• Challenges

Summary

Outline

3

• Toyota appreciates the opportunity to provide the following

technology perspective with regards to the 2017-2025MY

GHG/Fuel Economy Standards.

• In recognition of the previous work conducted by NRC, we

trust that the information provided today will assist NRC in

reaching a reasonable conclusion and making informed

recommendations in the final report.

• Toyota would welcome the opportunity to have further

dialogue with NRC members as a follow-up to the information

that is being provided today.

Introduction

4Presentation Category

I. Toyota’s technical roadmap to comply with

FE/GHG standards through 21MY.

II. Prospects beyond 2021MY.

Pathways to Improved Fuel Efficiency5

Efficiency Improvement

････Reduction of engine emission

････New variable valve sys.････Mass EGR････Next generation D4

････Apply CVT････Staging of A/T････Lock up at low speed

・・・・Weight reduction (with downsizing)

・・・・Reduction of air drag, tire’s RRC, etc

・・・・Energy management

Bio-fuel Vehicles Ethanol capable (E10, E20, E85)Bio diesel

Regional application of vehicles CNG Vehicles

PHV, EV & FCHV’s

Reduction in Vehicle Road Load

････Cost reduction

････Reduction of engine emission････Optimization of HV system

Expand HV applic.

Response to ZEV compliance, move toward full scale application

Fle

et F

ue

l Effic

ien

cy Im

pro

ve

me

nts

Saving Oil

Reducing OilDependency

62017-21MY Toyota Compliance Approach

▼▼▼▼ Technology Deployment Priority▼▼▼▼ Technology Deployment Priority

High priority

1. Advances in ICE Technology

2. Improvements in Drive-train Technology

3. Hybridization: Expand application and improve technology

4. Mass Reduction

5. Improvements in Aerodynamics/Rolling Resistance

6. ATV Introducing



High priority




4. Mass Reduction


6. ATV Introducing

8ICE & Drivetrain Technologies

▼ Approach is to improve ICE efficiency in concert with an optimum drivetrain configuration that will enable frequent

operation in the engine’s highly efficient area.

▼ Approach is to improve ICE efficiency in concert with an optimum drivetrain configuration that will enable frequent

operation in the engine’s highly efficient area.

9ICE Improvement Concept

▼ Two distinct approaches for improving the thermal efficiency.▼ Two distinct approaches for improving the thermal efficiency.

Increase CR and/or Lean A/F

Downside: Reduced Peak Power Downside: Increased Knocking Risk

Reduce Energy Losses (friction, heat, etc.)

E.g. Atkinson Cycle E.g. Boosting & Downsizing


Small class conventional engine already operates in high efficiency zone,

so the effect of TDS (expanding efficiency zone) is smaller than large class.

Ne（ｒｐｍ）（ｒｐｍ）（ｒｐｍ）（ｒｐｍ）

TR

Q（（（（N

m））））


TR

Q（（（（N

m））））

Operating areaOperating area

High efficiency

Zone (original)

High efficiency

Zone (TDS)

High efficiency

Zone (TDS)

Small engine displacement

Large engine displacement

High efficiency

Zone (original)

Small size car Large size car

Downsizing effect



TR

Q（（（（N

m））））

Operating area

High efficiency

Zone (original)

Small engine displacement

Small size car

Improve thermal efficiency of ICE

(Atkinson)

Adapt CVT / THS Synergy for drivetrain application

Increasing maximum thermal efficiency combined with CVT or THS offers

the best approach for small car applications.

Since peak efficiency occurs at lower speed and high torque operation, it is beneficial for CVT or synergy w/THS type application



TR

Q（（（（N

m））））

Operating area

High efficiency

Zone (TDS)

Large engine displacement

High efficiency

Zone (original)

Large size car

Incorporate Downsizing

Adapting multi speed A/T, drivetrain enables better use of middle torque area.

Broadening high thermal efficiency area combined with A/T, DCT, offers the

best approach for large size car applications.

Expanding the usable, middle torque area of the ICE can benefit these types of drivetrain applications .

13ICE Technology Penetration

2016MY 2021MY

EPA estimation

Toyota estimation

GDI

Others

Others

GDI

TDS TDS(+GDI)

GDI

TDS(+GDI)

Others

Others

▼ Toyota balance of GDI, TDS and other technologies is predicated on development resources, cost, and required

compliance contribution.

14Drive-train Technology Penetration

2016MY 2021MY

EPA estimation

Toyota estimation

others

6 A/T

DCT

others 6 A/T

8 A/T

DCT

others

6 A/T

8 A/T

CVT

6 A/T

8 A/T

CVT

▼ Rationale for advanced A/T is that performance is comparable to that of DCT while considerable development and manufacturing experience currently exists with this technology.

▼ Rationale for advanced A/T is that performance is comparable to that of DCT while considerable development and manufacturing experience currently exists with this technology.



High priority




4. Mass Reduction


6. ATV Introducing

16Toyota Hybrid Technology Improvement

▼ Focus on measures that increase maximum thermal efficiency, as compared to conventional ICE, will offer improved HV F/E.

▼ Focus on measures that increase maximum thermal efficiency, as compared to conventional ICE, will offer improved HV F/E.

17Toyota Hybrid Technology Improvement

▼ Toyota is planning to develop higher thermal efficiency engines to use in future Hybrid Vehicle applications.

▼ Toyota is planning to develop higher thermal efficiency engines to use in future Hybrid Vehicle applications.

18Expansion of Hybrid Vehicle

▼▼▼▼ Why will Toyota focus on hybridization ?▼▼▼▼ Why will Toyota focus on hybridization ?

CO

2 (

g/k

m)

Good

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

0

2010 2020 2030 2040 Year

20

EV、FCV

Improved Conventional ICE

ＨＶ

ＰＨＶ

Achieving 21MY compliance with only conventional ICE presents a significant challenge.

Mid-size Sedan

19Expansion of Hybrid Vehicle

▼ In short-term, world wide introduction:

▼ In short-term, world wide introduction:

Worldwide

20Strong Hybrid Penetration

▼Toyota believes strong hybrid penetration will be significantly more than what EPA has estimated in the 2021MY timeframe.

▼Toyota believes strong hybrid penetration will be significantly more than what EPA has estimated in the 2021MY timeframe.

EPA estimation

Toyota estimation

Str

ong h

ybrid

penetr

ation r

ate

0%

10%

20%

2021MY2016MY

0%

10%

20%

2016MY* 2021MY *from ONP1 final rule

Str

ong h

ybrid

penetr

ation r

ate

(include mild-HV)

Toyota Only



High priority




4. Mass Reduction


6. ATV Introducing

Mass Reduction

Improvement of Fuel economy for 100lb down-weighting

Same ETW

Class

With ETW

rank down

about 0.5%

about 1.5%

(1) Effect of vehicle Down-weighting on fuel economy

-1

0

+1

+2

+3

Base

▲100 lb

Fu

el

Ec

on

om

y I

mp

rove

me

nt

rati

o(%

)

-125lbs

about +0.5％

▲100 lb

+125lbs

Vehicle Test Weight Class (lb)

ETW: Equivalent vehicle Test Weight

about +1.5％

22

2021 Average2016 Average

Ve

hic

le w

eig

ht

Down-weighting

(2) Efforts toward Down-weighting

Increase of customer needs

Safety Reg.etc.

0

Mass Reduction

・Safety Equipment(Around Traffic DetectorAnti Corrision Brake etc)・Comfort Equipment(Power Back Door etc)・Tire Inch Up(w/ wheel, brake) etc.

Improve Fuel Effi.

VVT,VCM

HV/PHV

23

• Increase the rate of high-tension steel

• Low density Plastics

• Adopt Al/Mg/CFRP

• Optimization of structure and Engine displacement and so on (for long-term challenge)

etc.

Down-weighting will need to be increased as the application of ATV expands.

24Mass Reduction

▼▼▼▼Toyota Estimation of Actual Mass Reduction Level▼▼▼▼Toyota Estimation of Actual Mass Reduction Level

2021MY

(EPA estimation)

2016MY

(Toyota estimation)

2021MY

(Toyota estimation)

about -3% -3%

25

Summary of Prospects for 2021MY Compliance

▼ Incorporation of “ICE technology improvement”, “Hybrid vehicle expansion”, “Mass reduction efforts”, among others, will all be

considered in order to meet compliance.

▼ Incorporation of “ICE technology improvement”, “Hybrid vehicle expansion”, “Mass reduction efforts”, among others, will all be

considered in order to meet compliance.

Sto

ich

iom

etric

GD

I

Tu

rbo

/Do

wn

sis

ed

(

18BM

EP

)

Tu

rbo

/Do

wn

siz

ed

(

24BM

EP

)

Tu

rbo

/Do

wn

siz

ed

(

27BM

EP

)

Co

ole

d E

GR

6+ S

pe

ed

AT

6+ S

pe

ed

DC

T

Mild

Hyb

rid (IS

G)

Stro

ng

Hyb

rid

Plu

g-in

HE

V

Ba

ttery

Ele

ctric

Ve

h.

Die

se

l

Ave

rag

e M

as

s

Re

du

ctio

n p

er V

eh

.

2021(EPA) 41% 38% 1% 1% 1% 35% 48% 0% 12% 0% 0% 0% 3%

2021(Toyota) + - + + - = + =~+ =~+ = =

EffectCost

26

Summary of Prospects for 2021MY Compliance

VEHICLE TECHNOLOGY ICM COSTS PER VEHICLE / FUEL CONSUMPTION REDUCTION

(for MY 2017 in 2010 dollars) BY VEHICLE SUBCLASS

MidsizeCar

Manufac.Estimate

LargeLt. Truck

Manufac.Estimate

MidsizeCar

Manufac.Estimate

LargeLt. Truck

Manufac.Estimate

Nominal Baseline Engine (For Cost Basis)

I4 (+,−,=) V8 (+,−,=) I4 (+,−,=) V8 (+,−,=)

Stoichiometric Gasoline Direct Injection (GDI)

SGDI $268.45 ==== $536.91 ==== 1.5% ==== 1.5% ====

Turbocharging and Downsizing -Level 1 (18 bar BMEP) TRBDS1

$493.60

++++

$620.79

++++

8.3%

−−−− ∼ =∼ =∼ =∼ =

7.3%

====Turbocharging and Downsizing -

Level 2 (24 bar BMEP) TRBDS2 $26.06 $442.27 3.5% 3.4%

▼ With regards to the effect of TDS on fuel consumption, we can agree with EPA’s assumptions. However, EPA’s cost estimate

appears to be too conservative.

▼ With regards to the effect of TDS on fuel consumption, we can agree with EPA’s assumptions. However, EPA’s cost estimate

appears to be too conservative.

27Presentation Category

I. Toyota’s technical roadmap to comply with

FE/GHG standards through 21MY.

II. Prospects beyond 2021MY.

28Prospects beyond 2021MYC

O2

(g

/km

)

Good

0

2010 2020 2030 2040 Year

EV、FCV

ICE

ＨＶ

ＰＨＶ

Continuous improvement of ICE technologies

Further expansion of Hybridization

• Continuous technology development;

• Market acceptance

Required 4.5 percent FE improvement per yearMid-size Sedan

29Improvement of ICE technologyC

O2

(g

/km

)

Good

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

0

2010 2020 2030

20

EV、FCV

ＨＶ

ＰＨＶ

• High thermal efficiency

� High compression ratio

� Boosted engine

� Lean burn, EGR

� Low friction

• Pumping loss reduction

• Engine operation range

Required 4.5 percent FE improvement per yearMid-size Sedan

ICE

Continuous improvement of ICE technologies

30High Compression Ratio

0

5

10

15

0 20 40

Compression Ratio

To

rqu

e (

Nm

)

90RON

100RON

95RON

With Lower RON, knocking

decreases fuel efficiency

▼ (NA Engine) Higher efficiency for all operating conditions with higher compression ratio.

▼ (Downsizing with Boost) Downsizing improve fuel consumption.

▼ (NA Engine) Higher efficiency for all operating conditions with higher compression ratio.

▼ (Downsizing with Boost) Downsizing improve fuel consumption.

Downsizing (%)

(Boosting)

Fuel consum

ption im

pro

vem

ent(

%) + 95 RON Needed: High octane fuel

will secure effective fuel consumption

improvement for boosting downsizing

Ideal(same Pme and SFC)

31Lean Burn Engine

（（（（AAAAvvvv.... ffffuuuueeeellll ccccoooonnnnssssuuuummmmppppttttiiiioooonnnn wwwwiiiitttthhhh ppppeeeerrrriiiiooooddddiiiiccccaaaallll rrrreeeeccccoooovvvveeeerrrryyyy ccccoooonnnnttttrrrroooollll wwwwhhhheeeennnn ssssuuuullllffffuuuurrrr aaaaccccccccuuuummmmuuuullllaaaattttiiiioooonnnn rrrreeeeaaaacccchhhheeeessss iiiittttssss ccccrrrriiiitttteeeerrrriiiiaaaa aaaatttt rrrreeeeppppeeeeaaaatttteeeedddd FFFFTTTTPPPP))))

（（（（Fuel consumption without recovery controlFuel consumption without recovery controlFuel consumption without recovery controlFuel consumption without recovery control））））

1111----

Fuel consumption degrading ratio=Fuel consumption degrading ratio=Fuel consumption degrading ratio=Fuel consumption degrading ratio=

S=10ppmS=30ppmS=50ppm

3

4

2

1

0

5

7

6

8

9

10

about 2% improvementabout 2% improvementabout 2% improvementabout 2% improvement

by Sulfur :30→10ppmby Sulfur :30→10ppmby Sulfur :30→10ppmby Sulfur :30→10ppm

Fuel consum

ption

Fuel consum

ption

Fuel consum

ption

Fuel consum

ption

degrading ratio

degrading ratio

degrading ratio

degrading ratio （％

）（％

）（％

）（％

）

Impacts on Fuel Consumption with Sulfur Contents

▼ Lean Burn Engine incurs a fuel penalty for SOx control.

▼ Reducing sulfur from 30 ppm to 10 ppm improves fuel consumption about 2% by lessening need for recovery control.

▼ Lean Burn Engine incurs a fuel penalty for SOx control.

▼ Reducing sulfur from 30 ppm to 10 ppm improves fuel consumption about 2% by lessening need for recovery control.

Lean burn engine needs cyclical

SOx, which is stored at catalyst,

and reduction strategy will incur

a fuel penalty.

Ultra low sulfur gasoline fuel

allows a decrease in fuel penalty

because of the reduced SOx

storage.

32Expand HybridizationC

O2

(g

/km

)

Good

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

0

2010 2020 2030 2040 Year

20

EV、FCV

ＨＶ

ＰＨＶ

Further Expansion of Hybridization

• Continuous ICE development to increase thermal efficiency

• Continuous cost reduction to secure market acceptance

• Continuous ICE development to increase thermal efficiency

• Continuous cost reduction to secure market acceptance

Mid-size Sedan

ICE

Required 4.5 percent FE improvement per year

33Prospects beyond 2021MY - Challenges

Category Approaches Challenge

ICE

Improvements

• High Compression

Ratio

• Lean Burn

� Higher Octane

gasoline is needed

� Low Sulfur (10ppm)

fuel is required

HV Expansion • Additional models

• System for Truck

application

� Fuel Price

� Utility requirements

PHV

Development

• Battery

Improvements

• Range

� Technology

� Infrastructure

accessibility

34Post 2021MY Challenges – Methodology

Credit balance and ability to comply must be monitored in addition to technology

improvement and consumer acceptance.

▼ 2016 MY baseline fleet average less than 35.5 mpg standard. Compliance achieved with credits increasingly consumed in year

generated.

▼ 2016 MY baseline fleet average less than 35.5 mpg standard. Compliance achieved with credits increasingly consumed in year

generated. General Industry Issue

35

▼ Smaller vehicles face higher technology cost up in price sensitive market segment.

▼ Smaller vehicles face higher technology cost up in price sensitive market segment.

FE savings meaningless to consumers if can’t afford purchase price. Economic Payback = affordability, and additional feasibility metrics should be considered.

Post 2021MY Challenges – Methodology

36

▼ Standards set 13 years into future require assumptions critical to technology deployment and compliance with standards.

▼ Standards set 13 years into future require assumptions critical to technology deployment and compliance with standards.

Agency assumptions must be periodically reviewed and feasibility of standards

reconsidered based on new information.

• Preference

• Affordability

• Attitude/Knowledge

• Acceptance of Technologies

• Investment payback

Vehicle Technology

Consumers

Fuels

Economic ConditionsGovernment Policies

• Cost/benefit improvements

• Deployment rates

• Fleet sales mix

• Flexibilities

• Incentives

• Other regulations (safety, fuels, etc.)

• State mandates

• GDP

• Unemployment

• Income levels

• Health of Auto Industry

• Price

• Availability

• Quality/Specs

• Infrastructure

Examples of Uncertainty

Post 2021MY Challenges – Methodology

37

Request

• 10 ppm sulfur and 95 RON octane are necessary for TDS

pathway

• Affordability must be considered in addition to economic

payback and cost/benefit when determining appropriate

standard level

• Agency projections based on uncertain assumptions

(technology cost, performance, fuel price, etc.)

necessitate mid-term review

• More information will become available after NRC report

is published, therefore need additional periodic review

before end of mid-term review

38

Summary

Toyota’s Technology Roadmap to meet 2021MY CAFE standards incorporates ICE improvements, HV expansion, and Drive-train as priority deployment technologies.

Toyota differs from EPA’s technology assessment in the following areas:

• Toyota does not see adoption of TDS as EPA projects for 2021• Toyota differs on drivetrain application from EPA’s projections• Toyota views strong hybrid application will need to be increased

beyond what EPA has estimated for 2021

Beyond 2021MY, prospects to meet compliance goals are difficult to predict with confidence but fuel quality/specifications, technology cost, and market acceptance present major challenges to achieving these standards.

39

End

toyota nrc nov2012

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